I'll give it a shot . . .
Conventional wisdom says the Steelers are vulnerable to being spread out and thrown on with quick short passes. This strategy neutralizes the pass rush and exploits weaknesses in coverage. The best passing team (statistically #10 overall) the Steelers faced this year was the Saints and the Steelers lost 20-10. Conditions were very much like the Super Bowl will be, indoors on a fast track with no weather considerations.
Brees was remarkably efficient with the ball, finishing 34 of 44 for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, one interception and a rating of 101. He completed passes to 10 different guys with a yards per attempt average of 6.3. That 6.3 YPA was right on the Steelers' average which actually led the league in that stat. Furthermore, Pittsburgh allowed the second-lowest quarterback rating all season. It was also one of only three teams to force more interceptions than the number of touchdowns that it allowed.
The Saints had no success running the ball, even though they tried 21 times. Despite the lack of success on the ground, the Saints dominated TOP 34:06 to 25:54.
So, it sounds like the Packers could duplicate this formula and win going away. However, a closer look reveals it might not be so easy. First, despite the lopsided statistics, the Saints only scored 20 points. In fact, the score was 13-10 with 10:48 left. Momentum seemed to be the Steelers' side after a strip sack fumble recovery, but when Heath Miller fumbled on the Steelers' ensuing possession, the Saints put the game away. I think the Steelers would feel comfortable giving up 20 points to the Packers.
The Steelers ran the ball effectively in this game, and based on the statistical predictors for the Super Bowl, they should be able to do as good or better than their 21 attempts for 108 yards they racked up against the Saints. The Steelers failed to score from inside the one yard line after a TD pass to Randle El was overturned. I have to think if the Steelers had to do it over again, their play selection on those 3 plays would be different and they score. Even with Pouncey out, I'll go on record as predicting more than 21 rushing attempts, probably 30, with a yards per attempt right around what Green Bay gives up for around 140 yards. That will be enough to even out the TOP battle, if not tilt it in the Steelers' favor. That means 1 or 2 less possessions for the Packers, and less attempts for ARod.
The danger in spreading the Steelers defense out is this strategy increases the possibility of pressure on the QB. I know Aaron Rodgers is known for his ability to escape the pocket and make throws on the run and even run the ball a bit, but he's not done it against this type of defense. Even though the Packers play a 3-4, most of their opponents don't, which means they haven't practiced much against it and have not faced a defense as complex as LeBeau's. The Steelers faced the 4th most pass attempts but were 12th in yards allowed, which is pretty good. They faced so many pass attempts because teams abandon the run early. If this pattern repeats itself in the Super Bowl (and there is no reason to think it won't, because for the purpose of this discussion we are inferring Green Bay will spread the Steelers out and focus on quick passes) then defending the pass becomes much easier to do, and will allow blitzes to come from different positions at different times from multiple looks. The Polamalu factor will emerge.
I like the Steelers 20-17.