Bye Week Assessment

[Pugger]

I agree with this for sure, but Houston brings up another interesting example.

Look at CJ Stroud.

Here’s who he’s throwing to:
WR Nico Collins - 3rd season, 3rd round pick
WR Tank Dell - rookie, 3rd round pick
WR Xavier Hutchinson - rookie, 6th round pick
WR John Metchie III- 2nd season, 2nd round pick (missed entire rookie season due to Leukemia)
WR Robert Woods - 10th season

TE Brevin Jordan - 3rd season, 5th round pick
TE Teagan Quitoriano - 2nd season, 5th round pick
TE Dalton Schultz - 6th season

And in the running game you’ve got Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Dare Ogunbowale, Mike Boone, and Andrew Beck.

So outside of Woods and Schultz it’s not like he has been surrounded with a ton of experienced vets or really much top-level talent at all. It’s mostly inexperienced, unproven, or unimpressive pass-catchers and there’s certainly no Aaron Jones to open things up for him.

At OL they have had injuries to C Scott Quessenberry, OT DJ Scaife, OT Kilian Zierer, OG Kenyon Green, OT Charlie Heck, C Juice Scruggs, C Kendrick Green, and OT Josh Jones. Maybe none of those are Bakh or Jenkins level injuries but suffice to say the OL has been banged up plenty down there too.

So consider Love and Stroud. Both have dealt with injuries and having to repeatedly shuffle around their OL. Both for the most part have a young and inexperienced pass catching corps. Both are largely lacking for an elite game-changer at RB (with Jones out). But with all that factored in, Stroud looks like a front runner for OROY and Love has statistically been near the bottom of just about every significant QB measure.

Is Stroud simply better than Love? Do Green Bay’s injuries impact them that much more meaningfully than Houston’s so as to explain the discrepancy? Is the age/experience deficit in GB really THAT much greater? I don’t think anyone would really argue that Love has looked better than Stroud through 5 games. Is Stroud’s situation really that much more advantageous?

Now don’t get me wrong. I am not trying to slam Love or say he sucks or any of that. I’m sure there’s not any one clear-cut answer here. But I guess what I’m getting at is that… while Love has certainly had some factors working against him, he’s certainly not the other young QB dealing with adversity and it seems like young QBs elsewhere are either handling it better or at least in a situation that has them set up to deal with said adversity better… how much of that comes down to coaching/scheme? I’ve said it elsewhere; Love hasn’t always made things easy for himself but it also seems like on most plays he simply doesn’t have any “easy” option available to him…

Stroud was a much better prospect coming out of Ohio State than Love was and was the second overall pick last spring. I believe CJ was a Heisman finalist too. He is super impressive to be sure. Houston has been drafting high for years compared to us. Love will most likely be a slightly better than average starting NFL QB in the end and we can win with that. And if not we'll be in the position to take an elite player like CJ in the future.

 

[tynimiller]

Stroud was a much better prospect coming out of Ohio State than Love was and was the second overall pick last spring. I believe CJ was a Heisman finalist too. He is super impressive to be sure. Houston has been drafting high for years compared to us. Love will most likely be a slightly better than average starting NFL QB in the end and we can win with that. And if not we'll be in the position to take an elite player like CJ in the future.

Jamarcus Russel was a much better prospect than Love in his draft class....LOL it cannot be stated as definitive.

To be fair I had Stroud as my QB1 this draft, but it is so so tough across classes to project and such. There were as we all probably recall folks that had a 1st round grade on Love.

I think we all, and Pugger I'm not saying you aren't doing this, just need to stay realistic on the fact that until probably towards the final few weeks this year no one knows or has a ton of evidence to declare what he is or isn't going to be and even then none of us truly know.

I'll say this much I don't think he is gonna be better than these QBs (career wise) and their rookie or first year starting years looked like this:

16 Games - 326 for 575 (56.70%) for 3,739 yards and 26 TDs to go with 28 INTs and a 71.2 rate (4 games at 50 or worse)
16 Games - 320 for 526 (60.84%) for 3,284 yards and 17 TDs to go with 16 INTs and a 76.9 rate (2 sub 50 games)
11 Games - 123 for 259 (47.49 %) for 1,663 yards and 7 TDs to go with 14 INTs and a 54.9 rate (5 sub 50 games...4 sub 40 games) (this QB had a career completion percentage of 56.9)
12 Games - 169 for 320 (52.81%) for 2,074 yards and 10 TDs to go with 12 INTs and a 67.9 rate (3 sub 50 games)

Just a few looking up a few guys I know didn't start their careers so hot...

 

[Packerbacker1996]

From that same thread this was definition of success I used.

1. A defense that plays up to its potential. Top 10. Barry fired if they don't accomplish this. (Fail - ranked 20th)
2. Special teams not losing games (Pass)
3. A WR group that runs the correct routes and can separate. Fewer drops (Fail)
4. A TE that can create matchup problems for defenses and is relevant. 500 yds receiving. (Pass - Luke Musgrave is leading all TEs and is averaging 32 yds a game. IMO, that's pretty good for a rookie.)
5. Efficient QB in first year as a starter that is close to, or above league averages for completion percentage (~64%) and TD/INT ratio (~2/1). Break 3000 yds passing and statistics trending upwards as season progresses. (2 of 3 Fail- 55.6% completion, 11TD/9Int, On track for 3600 yards, incomplete for season trends)
6. 2500+ yds rushing. Jones & Dillon should easily accomplish this. (Fail - Packers as a team are averaging less than 100 yds a game.)
7. Keep "WTF was that!?" yelling at the TV to a minimum when I watch the games. (Fail but I'm drinking more during games so that's a plus)

Good one lol, especially the drinking part. I feel you. Can't watch this debacle sober.

 

[Packerbacker1996]

Our HC is the biggest problem,.
Our DC is the second biggest problem.
Our strenght & conditioning program might be the 3rd biggest problem.
Our O-line and O-line coaching might be one of the top issues as well.

Mainly we have a massive coaching issues. Lafleur and Barry GTG ASAP

 

[El Guapo]

On offense, our only healthy veteran this season at a skills position has been AJ Dillon. Jones is there but has really only played in one game. There are some "veterans" on the O-line with Runyan, Myers, and Jenkins, but aside from Elgton they still have baby faces.

The point is that Love is relying on an apparently washed up Dillon and then nothing but rookies and 2nd year pass-catchers, none of whom have proved to be anything beyond talented with potential. Rodgers came into 2008 with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones catching his passes. Oh, and they drafted Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley that year. He had a much more veteran crew helping him along with tons of established talent.

I'm not making excuses for Love, but am pointing out that he's had a tougher road. If we roughly match Rodgers' record of 6-10 in 2008 then I'll be content.

 

[El Guapo]

I think you'll enjoy it a lot more if you focus on how players are growing (unless they don't and then it will just plain stink all the way around).

Here is the best take-away from this entire thread. Think of this season as a long stretch of pre-season games. Watch the players, look for growth, and be hopeful for the future.

 

[ClutchLove]

As AR told Love, he just needs to block out the BS and let everyone RELAX....

It's 5 games in, I don't think you can put any realistically reasonable expectation on Love until maybe at MINIMUM 8-10 games in. It's still really early

Jordan has made some questionable decisions for sure... his completion % is pretty bad, but you have to holistically look at other factors: inexperienced WR and TE corp marred by many drops, bad O Line play, questionable Offensive Play calling, etc

I don't think you can call Jordan an XYZ tier QB or he will be ABC good at this point yet.... in November, we will get a clearer picture for sure

I mean we are on the Bye Week now so time to look at what has/hasn't worked and to make adjustments...

For all we know, the Pack could go 12-0 the rest of the way and Jordan could throw for 36 touchdown passes (3 per game) the rest of the way....

Or he could continue to flounder and throw 24 interceptions (2 per game) or whatever

It's just too early to tell

 

[tynimiller]

As AR told Love, he just needs to block out the BS and let everyone RELAX....

It's 5 games in, I don't think you can put any realistically reasonable expectation on Love until maybe at MINIMUM 8-10 games in. It's still really early

Jordan has made some questionable decisions for sure... his completion % is pretty bad, but you have to holistically look at other factors: inexperienced WR and TE corp marred by many drops, bad O Line play, questionable Offensive Play calling, etc

I don't think you can call Jordan an XYZ tier QB or he will be ABC good at this point yet.... in November, we will get a clearer picture for sure

I mean we are on the Bye Week now so time to look at what has/hasn't worked and to make adjustments...

For all we know, the Pack could go 12-0 the rest of the way and Jordan could throw for 36 touchdown passes (3 per game) the rest of the way....

Or he could continue to flounder and throw 24 interceptions (2 per game) or whatever

It's just too early to tell

Which would still be shy of one of the greatest QBs ever to touch a centers butt in their first year as a starter..... LOL

 

[tynimiller]

Jamarcus Russel was a much better prospect than Love in his draft class....LOL it cannot be stated as definitive.

To be fair I had Stroud as my QB1 this draft, but it is so so tough across classes to project and such. There were as we all probably recall folks that had a 1st round grade on Love.

I think we all, and Pugger I'm not saying you aren't doing this, just need to stay realistic on the fact that until probably towards the final few weeks this year no one knows or has a ton of evidence to declare what he is or isn't going to be and even then none of us truly know.

I'll say this much I don't think he is gonna be better than these QBs (career wise) and their rookie or first year starting years looked like this:

16 Games - 326 for 575 (56.70%) for 3,739 yards and 26 TDs to go with 28 INTs and a 71.2 rate (4 games at 50 or worse)
16 Games - 320 for 526 (60.84%) for 3,284 yards and 17 TDs to go with 16 INTs and a 76.9 rate (2 sub 50 games)
11 Games - 123 for 259 (47.49 %) for 1,663 yards and 7 TDs to go with 14 INTs and a 54.9 rate (5 sub 50 games...4 sub 40 games) (this QB had a career completion percentage of 56.9)
12 Games - 169 for 320 (52.81%) for 2,074 yards and 10 TDs to go with 12 INTs and a 67.9 rate (3 sub 50 games)

Just a few looking up a few guys I know didn't start their careers so hot...

For those reading through this thread in days to come....the guys in that list are in no specific order....Elway, Manning, Josh Allen and Brees

 

[OldSchool101]

Before the season, my definition of "success" in 2023 was:

1) Love demonstrates that he is the QB of the future and develops with starting reps.

2) The defense either clicks or gets Barry fired.

So at 2-3 and not looking like a playoff team, success by my definition is still within reach. However, this is not a team that looks like it's ready to compete this season, which I thought might have been an outside possibility.

The offense just isn't developed enough to be relied upon. From what I have seen, I don't think Love has a debilitating accuracy problem. He is never going to be a consistent, pinpoint kind of thrower, but I think he has enough accuracy and other tools to be really effective. But what he does have is an offensive cohesion problem. And this makes sense. The "veterans" of the pass catching group are 2nd year players. Rookies at WR and TE have logged 632 snaps in 5 games. So the entire passing attack is both learning how to play at the NFL level and learning how to play together at the same time, all while the offensive line has been quite hobbled and their best running back as been mostly unavailable.

So while I am not sold that Love is the future of the franchise, I'm also not sold that he isn't. But this season is probably much more about him and the weapons finding cohesion and proving themselves (or failing to) than it is about winning games. Hopefully they continue to get healthy and figure some things out over the bye week.

On defense, I think you see flashes of how talented they are, and I don't think that Barry has been a disaster, but I also don't think he gets you anything more than the sum of your players. Teams like the Browns, Bills, Ravens, Saints, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, and Falcons have personnel that is either worse than or comparable to Green Bay's, and yet they're performing better. Maybe the most galling example is Houston, where Demeco Ryans has immediately made the cast-offs that compose Houston's defense more effective than Green Bay. Whether it's teaching, game-planning, play-calling, philosophy, or some combination... other teams (MANY other teams) have defensive coaches who are getting more out of their units than the sum of its parts. And Barry just doesn't seem to do that. I wonder if they already know that, but they didn't see the value in taking on the financial hit of moving on in a season that was viewed as developmental.

So here at the bye, I would say I am hoping for growing cohesion on offense and clarity on defense. I would not be sorry if they unloaded some players for draft capital at the deadline, though contractually that could be hard to do. I think success this season is within reach. I won't tell anything how they should "fan," but if you want some free advice, don't make this season about wins and losses. I think you'll enjoy it a lot more if you focus on how players are growing (unless they don't and then it will just plain stink all the way around).

Good stuff it’s pretty much how I feel. The 20% chance I had of us maybe as a wildcard playoff team is now 10%. It’s ok though because the player you get picking 7-8th in each round instead of 22-23rd is substantially better. I suspect Jets will miss the playoffs so we should get a 40’s overall draft pick there.

Obviously the stumbling Offense impacts the Defense some. But I still feel like Barry needs to get this Points per allowed under 20. This schedule is not scary at all. It’s one of the easiest schedules we’ve had across decades.

Special Teams is coming back around also I think we’re fine there.

I see us needing 1-2 upgrades at OL and at least 1 more Weapon on Offense next season added into the mix. Ideally 1 of those is a primed and proven FA/Trade for veteran that’s not washed up.

That gives us plenty of firepower to get us a good Safety upgrade and possibly a good 3rd LB that can impact games. Our DL should have enough resources to get growth next year as many players will be 2nd or 3rd year players by 2024

 

[JK64]

He through five in first season as a starter has only two more INTs than Rodgers.

Two more in five games is alot.

 

[tynimiller]

Two more in five games is alot.

If you want to feel better he is MASSIVELY under shooting the number Manning had in his first season starting.

 

[milani]

On offense, our only healthy veteran this season at a skills position has been AJ Dillon. Jones is there but has really only played in one game. There are some "veterans" on the O-line with Runyan, Myers, and Jenkins, but aside from Elgton they still have baby faces.

The point is that Love is relying on an apparently washed up Dillon and then nothing but rookies and 2nd year pass-catchers, none of whom have proved to be anything beyond talented with potential. Rodgers came into 2008 with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones catching his passes. Oh, and they drafted Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley that year. He had a much more veteran crew helping him along with tons of established talent.

I'm not making excuses for Love, but am pointing out that he's had a tougher road. If we roughly match Rodgers' record of 6-10 in 2008 then I'll be content.

Well said. I agree. Now according to the renown former poster, the Captain, he blamed 2008 on the defense.

 

[Pkrjones]

With 12 games (minimum) to go in the '23 season here are my thoughts on improvement.
1. Need a solid, long-term LT...Walker had a couple of decent games after Bakhtiari went down, last 2 he's sucked. Move Zach Tom to be current & future LT. Would like to give Nijman another chance at success at RT before losing him with no return to FA.
2. MLF needs to commit to using short, high percentage passing game to soften D's to the run. Don't have the horses up front to be run-first so play to your talent. Keep motion, play-action but utilize high % slants, pick plays, outs to chip away & move the chains. Obviously mix in runs, but not every 1st down, leaving the offense with 2nd & 8. With 70-75% success Loves confidence will soar.
3. Watson needs to run his 10-15 yd in/out breaking patterns to see what he can win vs defender. MLF can then mix in a deep drop, longer developing play with good chance of Watson winning & succeeding a chunk play.
4. At least 2/half designed Love keeper runs outside after play-action to keep D's honest. Kid can move, use him.
5. With consistent D pressure use screens. That mean they need to practice AND become good at them.
6. No more experimental TE blocking. Sims appears decent at it, Kraft needs to earn playing time as right now he sucks at blocking.

 

[tynimiller]

6. No more experimental TE blocking. Sims appears decent at it, Kraft needs to earn playing time as right now he sucks at blocking.

Sad thing is right now our TEs and their blocking abilities from best to worst are Deguara, Sims, Kraft, Musgrave...

And snap count wise from most to least: Musgrave, Deguara, Kraft, Sims

 

[OldSchool101]

Sad thing is right now our TEs and their blocking abilities from best to worst are Deguara, Sims, Kraft, Musgrave...

And snap count wise from most to least: Musgrave, Deguara, Kraft, Sims

yes. and really Deguara isn’t all that good. We watched him let a CB come 7 yards into our backfield and assault Dillon. He’s a C grade blocker but he just looks good compared to a bunch of green peas

 

[tynimiller]

yes. and really Deguara isn’t all that good. We watched him let a CB come 7 yards into our backfield and assault Dillon. He’s a C grade blocker but he just looks good compared to a bunch of green peas

He isn't perfect, but if you watch all his snaps...there are MANY plays that happen because that man did his blocking assignment.

 

[OldSchool101]

With 12 games (minimum) to go in the '23 season here are my thoughts on improvement.
1. Need a solid, long-term LT...Walker had a couple of decent games after Bakhtiari went down, last 2 he's sucked. Move Zach Tom to be current & future LT. Would like to give Nijman another chance at success at RT before losing him with no return to FA.
2. MLF needs to commit to using short, high percentage passing game to soften D's to the run. Don't have the horses up front to be run-first so play to your talent. Keep motion, play-action but utilize high % slants, pick plays, outs to chip away & move the chains. Obviously mix in runs, but not every 1st down, leaving the offense with 2nd & 8. With 70-75% success Loves confidence will soar.
3. Watson needs to run his 10-15 yd in/out breaking patterns to see what he can win vs defender. MLF can then mix in a deep drop, longer developing play with good chance of Watson winning & succeeding a chunk play.
4. At least 2/half designed Love keeper runs outside after play-action to keep D's honest. Kid can move, use him.
5. With consistent D pressure use screens. That mean they need to practice AND become good at them.
6. No more experimental TE blocking. Sims appears decent at it, Kraft needs to earn playing time as right now he sucks at blocking.

There’s a few OL prospects I’d seriously consider
Joe Alt would be an obvious safer choice and immediate starter.
Patrick Paul would be more in our typical Day2 expenditure.

The other guy I’d seriously look at is Center Zach Frazier from West Virginia He’s the guy I would want to run behind if I’m a RB!

 

[tynimiller]

There’s a few OL prospects I’d seriously consider
Joe Alt would be an obvious safer choice and immediate starter.
Patrick Paul would be more in our typical Day2 expenditure.

The other guy I’d seriously look at is Center Zach Frazier from West Virginia He’s the guy I would want to run behind if I’m a RB!

So....

Few of the day 1 or early day 2 guys I like purely off memory as my spreadsheets aren't on phone:

Alt was mentioned, yes high floor..may have the highest floor but lowest ceiling of the first round Tackle prospects.
Olumuyiwa Fashanu of Penn State is another first rounder
Latham from Bama is in my clear Top 10 just want to watch more...I'm not presently as high on him as some. He is a RT not a LT prospect and I question if he'll move over to LT.
Jordan Morgan from Arizona is a top5 LT for me this go around and may very well end up higher - I really like him.
Amarius Mims from Georgia is another RT guy that I don't want to move but could start day 1 for a team at RT.
Kingsley Suamataia has high level starts at RT and this year at BYU is their LT. Really like him need to watch more.

Few guys I tentatively think are 3rd rounders - Blake Fisher a RT from Notre Dame and Tyler Guyton (more 2nd/3rd rounder for me) from Oklahoma...Guyton can start at RT IMO for sure. Blake of last year yes, this year verdict is still out.

My Center #1 is Sedrick Van Pran - dude immediately boots Myers. Frazier was mentioned above, but I'll also say Drake Nugent from Michigan is absolutely a guy I think may be a 3rd round starter in the middle if he doesn't move into the top 60 picked.

 

[mradtke66]

Well said. I agree. Now according to the renown former poster, the Captain, he blamed 2008 on the defense.

Overall, 2008 was the defense. And offense finishing 5th in scoring and yards did enough to make the post season. The defense finished in the bottom quarter across the board.

This year, while Love hasn't played great, the rest of the offense isn't helping him out. I will harp on his (lack of) accuracy until he fixes it, but his WRs haven't made a great play. They haven't gotten open. They haven't turned a "meh" throw into a highlight catch. Jones has been hurt.

The defense has under achieved relative to the amount of talent/draft picks we have AND they have given up too many yards on the ground, they're middling across the board.

In short, the defense has been disappointing, but the offense is holding us back more right now. A little more offense (TOP) and the defense probably moves up 2-3 spots in the rankings.

 

[OldSchool101]

He isn't perfect, but if you watch all his snaps...there are MANY plays that happen because that man did his blocking assignment.

It’s about consistency. He hasn’t been consistent this year. He is 1 of several players in a key contract season that needs to really step up.
This isn’t anything direct at your support for him, but thus far he has not lived up to “stepping up”
Just my opinion. Several games this year, you yourself posted he was on the bottom of the PFF heap.
Do I hope he does well? Sure
Had he shown he clearly deserves a 2nd contract? Maybe on Teams and a veteran presence is where I’m at. That’s not a place you want to be though, hopefully he’ll ascend as the season transpires.

 

[tynimiller]

It’s about consistency. He hasn’t been consistent this year. He is 1 of several players in a key contract season that needs to really step up.
This isn’t anything direct at your support for him, but thus far he has not lived up to “stepping up”
Just my opinion. Several games this year, you yourself posted he was on the bottom of the PFF heap.
Do I hope he does well? Sure
Had he shown he clearly deserves a 2nd contract? Maybe on Teams and a veteran presence is where I’m at. That’s not a place you want to be though, hopefully he’ll ascend as the season transpires.

Oh I don't think you offer him a second contract much beyond a bargain one or two year deal with minimal guarantee at this point. Trust me I'm not saying he is an excellent H-Back in the system.

Also posting PFF merely because I have access to their metrics.....this year more than any there scores seem absolutely weird to be honest. Is what it is, but trust me I don't blindly think PFF is gospel.

 

[OldSchool101]

My Center #1 is Sedrick Van Pran - dude immediately boots Myers. Frazier was mentioned above, but I'll also say Drake Nugent from Michigan is absolutely a guy I think may be a 3rd round starter in the middle if he doesn't move into the top 60 picked.

Yes!
I’ve drafted him about 6 times in my interactions Mocks. I feel like me and Sed are family

 

[XPack]

Well, season isn't as bad as I thought.....yet.

But LOTS of improvement needed.

 

[Scotland Yard]

My assessment is it is no wonder Rodgers wanted to get away from Lafleur. Lafleur might be a decent OC, but, I don't see the HC here that's going to get the Packers a Super Bowl.

LaFleur hasn't been able to attract many top notch assistants, save for Bisaccia, and is always scraping the bottom of barrel in that respect (DC Barry for instance).

LaFleur has had four years to train Love. I don't see any evidence LaFleur is some great QB groomer. Love looks like the same inaccurate, deep ball interception machine he was in college. What was the point of drafting him and letting him sit for three years if he's not ready now? Love's floor-to-ceiling appears to be somewhere between Randy Wright/Tannehill types on up to Andy Dalton or Dak Prescott. How has LaFleur improved or trained up Love?

Where are the field tilting players drafted by Gutekunst? 2018 - Alexander; 2019 - Gary & Jenkins; 2020 zilch; 2021 zilch; 2022 maybe you've got something in Q. Walker and Watson, Z. Tom can play, but I'm not seeing any field tilters here yet; 2023 too soon to say (but, in fairness I will admit Van Ness, Reed and Musgrave show promise and could pan out nicely.)

So, in six seasons Gute has three guys you might call special. Gary is the only blue chipper on this team. I'm really not seeing it with this GM.

Five games into this season and I'm prepared to clean house.

If Jim Harbaugh wins a college championship, the Packers might have a shot to bring him in as HC. Get Harbaugh a Drake Maye at QB and let him do what he does, build a stout Oline/run game, get a hard-nosed defense going and the Packers might get back to actually being able to compete with the Lions instead of finishing 3rd or 4th in the division the next several seasons.