2023 Salary cap riddle

milani

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Now that the A-Rod deal is done, the Packers can figure out where their cap stands.

If the Spotrac numbers are right, they are going to need to free up a lot more space to sign their draft class and UDFA's. I am guessing my math is wrong or at least I hope it is!


2023 Adj. Spending Cap: $226,782,720

-Active Contracts: $165,933,674
-Dead Cap: $ 57,286,686

2023 Current Cap Hit: $223,220,360

Current Est. Avail. Cap Space: $3,562,360

-Est. Draft class cap hit: $12,767,821


Estimate Cap Deficit: $9,205,461
Does anyone recall if the Packers took a cap hit when Favre was traded to the Jets in 2008?
 

mradtke66

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This is what I am still seeing for Rodgers. I just don't know if it is accurate, but it makes sense, unless some of the signing bonus was reduced or somehow picked up by the Jets.

Current Dead Contracts​


YEARBASE SALARYSIGNING BONUSWORKOUT BONUSRESTRUC. BONUSDEAD CAP HITYEARLY CASH
2023
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-$37,461,568-$2,852,000$40,313,568-($0)

As I understand it, there was odd accounting wrapped up in the contract.

Before the adjustment, his dead cap was another 14M or so in 2023, but we'd get a matching 14M credit in 2024. There is no actual change is in the cap hit, just details as to when we get relief.

And no, I don't understand it. This is decidedly past my understand of cap magic.
 

mradtke66

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Does anyone recall if the Packers took a cap hit when Favre was traded to the Jets in 2008?

I don't remember his exact contract. Overthecap says he signed a 7 year deal in 2001 with 11m of guarantees. Assuming all 11m was a signing bonus, his dead cap would have been 1 year remaining * 11m/7.

Contracts were a bit simpler back in the early 00s.
 

Heyjoe4

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This is what I am still seeing for Rodgers. I just don't know if it is accurate, but it makes sense, unless some of the signing bonus was reduced or somehow picked up by the Jets.

Current Dead Contracts​


YEARBASE SALARYSIGNING BONUSWORKOUT BONUSRESTRUC. BONUSDEAD CAP HITYEARLY CASH
2023
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-$37,461,568-$2,852,000$40,313,568-($0)
Yeah I think this takes us back to where we began, before speculation about what the Jets might be getting as far as his cap hit. I think this $40 mil number for 2023 is right, and then we're really done with AR.
 
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If Love flops and the Packers are on the hook for the 5th year $20+M....oh well, the Packers will still be in rebuild mode and probably be drafting high and a QB.
That’s the thing I love about this trade. We basically got our floor draft capital number (#38 equivalent). However that BONUS Day1 is huge dividends (if Rodgers plays ~12 contests)

If we sink (worst case) we’ve very likely got the option of QB2 in the 2024 draft.

If we excel (preferred) into that Wildcard area. We’re still picking twice in the 20’s to add to an already pretty good football team.
 

Heyjoe4

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While I can't fully understand what Rodgers is going through, I kind of get it. Much like Favre, he left his only NFL home with both sides being bitter. NY is a fresh start for him and maybe he will change some of the things that didn't sit well in GB for him. I do know one thing, all the Jets fans and media are probably 110% behind him and that has got to feel good.
Yeah that's a legitimate point. He cleaned up and said the right things without going too far. He basically said the team has SB talent and their lone SB trophy "looked lonely". What more could a NYC fan ask for? (Well, we know the answer to that.)

But this parting was about as amicable as it could be. The Packers wanted to move on and had a taker. I would say both sides got what they wanted at a fair price.

Rodgers' issues here were mostly with the FO. For the fans, he won a SB pretty quickly, then went 0-4 in the play in game. Great player, generational talent. Just couldn't get to the finish line enough. Is that fair? Nah, but that's the QB's job and that's why they get paid $50 mil plus. Rodgers disappointed by not taking more responsibility. Water under the bridge now.
 
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I'm going to need help understanding the cap-magic that Gute pulled-off prior to trading AR.

Per PFT:
"Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.

The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by Week One. The Packers had been carrying this year’s allocation of the bonus — $14.575 million — along with his base salary for 2023. In a revision to the contract, the exercise window was shifted to erase the $14.575 million cap charge."

Not exactly sure if this "shift" reduces his dead $ from $40Mil to $25.4mil OR shifts his pro-rated SB for '23 to the Jets cap? I thought (but I reserve the right to WRONG) that the Jets cap hit was only his base salary of $1.165Mil but I'm seeing now that this same article has his '23 cap hit (for the Jets) at $15.79Mil.

So I'm asssuming another part of the trade was that the Jets absorbed $14.575Mil onto their cap and off of GB's?

Good info. Thanks
 

PikeBadger

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I heard 13 Million less on our 23 cap. Plenty of room to fill gaps after the draft.
If we get reinvigorated play from Campbell, Bakhtiari and Jenkins, I think we are going to be tough to deal with.
 
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Now that the A-Rod deal is done, the Packers can figure out where their cap stands.

If the Spotrac numbers are right, they are going to need to free up a lot more space to sign their draft class and UDFA's. I am guessing my math is wrong or at least I hope it is!


2023 Adj. Spending Cap: $226,782,720

-Active Contracts: $165,933,674
-Dead Cap: $ 57,286,686

2023 Current Cap Hit: $223,220,360

Current Est. Avail. Cap Space: $3,562,360

-Est. Draft class cap hit: $12,767,821


Estimate Cap Deficit: $9,205,461

Actually Over The Cap is the best place to look for the effective cap space a team currently has as it includes the compensation for draft picks as well. They have the Packers currently listed at $7 million of it which is the 15th most in the league.

I know that the Jets are on the hook for his 58.3 million bonus the day before the season and that were out from under his contract.

The Packers signed Rodgers to a revised contract before the trade was filed to the league office which converted Rodgers' 2023 option bonus into base salary for 2024. That move resulted in him currently only counting $1.165 million towards the Jets' cap. Otherwise it wouldn't have been possible to agree to the trade as the Jets currently wouldn't have had enough cap space to acquire him.

While that result in Rodgers to be due more than $100 million in 2024 it's all but guaranteed they will agree to restructure his deal at some point before the start of the season.

I assume that any FA players that are signed after the season starts, also need to be accounted for on the cap? I remember something about Vet. min being exempt from that, but I probably should just leave the numbers to Russ Ball.

Yes, of course every player being signed has to be accounted for on the cap. A vested veteran signing for the minimum counts less than what he's paid but the move still results in a small cap hit.

The Packers took some good whacks over the last 4-5 years of going for the Lombardi, but in the end here they are. Moving forward, it is time to pay the piper, get Cap healthy, trim as much fat (Bahk in 2024) as you can and hit on some current (Love) and future draft picks.

If the Packers exercise Love's fifth year option they will have the eighth most cap space in the league allocated towards the 2024 season. Next year, moving on from Bakhtiari and Douglas are the only moves which would result in significant savings.

I haven’t seen articles on this, but I’m pretty sure that if this is accurate, they’ll have to release guys they don’t want to release. I hope I am wrong.

The Packers don't have to release players because of Rodgers' dead money counting against their cap.

Things get fixed real fast in 2024 when our average QB impact is ~8% of our total budget. (Was ~22% on average). I’m using % because in general other players get a cost of living increases and the cap increase is really eaten by inflation.

There wasn't a single season in which Rodgers accounted for at least 15% of the cap, let alone an average of 22%.

Per PFT:
"Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.

The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by Week One. The Packers had been carrying this year’s allocation of the bonus — $14.575 million — along with his base salary for 2023. In a revision to the contract, the exercise window was shifted to erase the $14.575 million cap charge."

Not exactly sure if this "shift" reduces his dead $ from $40Mil to $25.4mil OR shifts his pro-rated SB for '23 to the Jets cap? I thought (but I reserve the right to WRONG) that the Jets cap hit was only his base salary of $1.165Mil but I'm seeing now that this same article has his '23 cap hit (for the Jets) at $15.79Mil.

So I'm asssuming another part of the trade was that the Jets absorbed $14.575Mil onto their cap and off of GB's?


PFT is completely off on that take. The Packers trading Rodgers results in $40.3 million of dead money counting against their cap in 2023. There was nothing anyone could have done about it aside of waiting after June 1 to trade him.

So it wasn't like Rodgers lost out on money owed by the Packers, in fact he probably got upfront money for this season.

Actually, he agreed to convert his 2023 bonus of $58.3 million to be paid as base salary in 2024. Otherwise the Jets wouldn't have been able to make the trade at this point.

Seems like cap hit on the Packers is now less than originally thought.

No, it's not. It was obvious for everyone that the Packers trading Rodgers before June 1 will result in $40.3 million of dead money against their cap in 2023. Nothing has changed about that.

Before the adjustment, his dead cap was another 14M or so in 2023, but we'd get a matching 14M credit in 2024. There is no actual change is in the cap hit, just details as to when we get relief.

And no, I don't understand it. This is decidedly past my understand of cap magic.

The cap hit of $14.575 million Florio was wrongly taking about would have been the prorated portion of Rodgers' option bonus of $58.3 million that would have counted against the Packers' cap if he ended up playing for them in 2023.

I don't remember his exact contract. Overthecap says he signed a 7 year deal in 2001 with 11m of guarantees. Assuming all 11m was a signing bonus, his dead cap would have been 1 year remaining * 11m/7.

Contracts were a bit simpler back in the early 00s.

I don't know a whole lot about the way contracts were handled regarding the cap back in 2008 either but signing bonuses can only be prorated for a maximum of five years. I guess that was true back then as well. If that's true the Packers trading Favre didn't result in any dead money.

Rodgers' issues here were mostly with the FO. For the fans, he won a SB pretty quickly, then went 0-4 in the play in game. Great player, generational talent. Just couldn't get to the finish line enough. Is that fair? Nah, but that's the QB's job and that's why they get paid $50 mil plus.

Rodgers never received $50 million plus for a season with the Packers though.

I heard 13 Million less on our 23 cap.

There's no truth to it though. The Packers actually took an additional cap hit of $8.7 million for the upcoming season by trading Rodgers at this point.
 

Pkrjones

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According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Packers will pick up Rodgers' guaranteed option bonus of $58.3 million, converting it into a signing bonus, creating $43.7 million in cap space and making his 2023 cap hit just $15.7 million.
The JETS are picking up the bonus, not GB. Jets can do whatever they'd like, as long as AR is off the Packer's books in '24.
 
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The JETS are picking up the bonus, not GB. Jets can do whatever they'd like, as long as AR is off the Packer's books in '24.

Technically the Packers restructured Rodgers' contract before he was officially traded to the Jets by converting his option bonus of $58.3 million into a base salary for 2024.

Otherwise the Jets wouldn't have had enough cap space to acquire him.

Bottom line, that didn't change anything about the move resulting in $40.3 million of dead money counting against the Packers' cap in 2023 or the fact that there won't be any cap implications starting next season.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Yeah I think this takes us back to where we began, before speculation about what the Jets might be getting as far as his cap hit. I think this $40 mil number for 2023 is right, and then we're really done with AR.
Yup. I think with cap numbers, it is best to wait until the dust settles and all the facts are on the table, before we start guessing. The dead cap was always going to be there, no way around that, until.... I am sure someone tells me a way around it. :)
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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I heard 13 Million less on our 23 cap. Plenty of room to fill gaps after the draft.
Or plenty of room to refill the war chest for the battles to come after 2023. I would love to think that the Packers will be contenders in 2023, but I just don't see it. So I would much rather live on Ramon Noodles for a year, get cap healthy and use the savings to do some good things in Free Agency in 2024.
 

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Agreed. There was always gonna be a cap issue with Rodgers because of the huge contract and guaranteed money. Recognize ALL of it this year and move on.

I’m expecting this to be a rough year, 6-11, something like that. That’s fine, especially if Love works out. It’s not gonna be a rebuild. There’s too much talent for that. Gluten does need to rock it w this draft.

I can only speak for me - I’m glad Rodgers is gone. Great player and made the Packers very watchable. He just caused more grief than he was worth at the end. And now he’s in another SB or bust situation. Good luck with the NYC fans and press.
 

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Or plenty of room to refill the war chest for the battles to come after 2023. I would love to think that the Packers will be contenders in 2023, but I just don't see it. So I would much rather live on Ramon Noodles for a year, get cap healthy and use the savings to do some good things in Free Agency in 2024.
The organization doesn't see it that way I assure you. I bet they believe they have a decent shot to win the division
 

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The organization doesn't see it that way I assure you. I bet they believe they have a decent shot to win the division
I tend to agree with you. I mean, new QB, and history of that tends to say odds are we're not great. But they retained a lot of people to keep a good shot with Love at winning some important games. If they didn't think this team was ready to do some damage with the new kid, they'd have cut some more weight and got some more picks and loaded up to do damage in a year or 2. But they didn't.
 
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The organization doesn't see it that way I assure you. I bet they believe they have a decent shot to win the division
Much like they viewed the Packers chances of making the playoffs with 5 games to go last season. While I don't doubt you that the Packers goal is to once again win a Lombardi this year, their long range plan better include the reality of their situation, not just optimistic 1 season goals. Which is why I don't see them spending all the cap they can on any expensive 1 and done vets, to try and plug 2023 openings.
 

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Much like they viewed the Packers chances of making the playoffs with 5 games to go last season. While I don't doubt you that the Packers goal is to once again win a Lombardi this year, their long range plan better include the reality of their situation, not just optimistic 1 season goals. Which is why I don't see them spending all the cap they can on any expensive 1 and done vets, to try and plug 2023 openings.
I never said they'd spend on expensive FA's. The hundreds of players available are mostly going to be had cheap, and their price tag drops every day from here forward.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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I never said they'd spend on expensive FA's. The hundreds of players available are mostly going to be had cheap, and their price tag drops every day from here forward.
I guess I see the Packers as a long shot to win the division, with or without spending all their cap.
 

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I guess I see the Packers as a long shot to win the division, with or without spending all their cap.
Just looking at 2023, they are a long shot to win the NFC North. Ideally, they pick up a couple of impact players in the draft, last year's draft class continues to develop, and next year they have some cap and can do some discretionary FA shopping. My opinion is that FAs don't magically turn a team into a SB contender. They plug holes that can't be plugged quickly any other way. Best example was the acquisition of the Smith Bros, Turner, and Amos - or Charles Woodson way back when.

Fortunately the Packers aren't in a rebuild, more like a reboot. They have talent, and have to find out what they have at QB. Ideally they play competitive ball in 2023. And ideally Love is the guy (no, not Favre or Rodgers, but someone who can manage a talented O).

This should be a good year for fans to catch their breath with lowered expectations. For the last 30 years we've expected lots of wins and a deep playoff run. That's not gonna be what happens in 2023.
 

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Odds to win the division.
Detroit- +130
Minnesota - + 310
Chicago- +320
Green Bay- +410

I am interested in the odds after the draft.
 

milani

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I don't remember his exact contract. Overthecap says he signed a 7 year deal in 2001 with 11m of guarantees. Assuming all 11m was a signing bonus, his dead cap would have been 1 year remaining * 11m/7.

Contracts were a bit simpler back in the early 00s.
I do recall that 7 year deal. At the time he stated it was unlikely he would be playing still after 7 years.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Just looking at 2023, they are a long shot to win the NFC North. Ideally, they pick up a couple of impact players in the draft, last year's draft class continues to develop, and next year they have some cap and can do some discretionary FA shopping. My opinion is that FAs don't magically turn a team into a SB contender. They plug holes that can't be plugged quickly any other way. Best example was the acquisition of the Smith Bros, Turner, and Amos - or Charles Woodson way back when.

Fortunately the Packers aren't in a rebuild, more like a reboot. They have talent, and have to find out what they have at QB. Ideally they play competitive ball in 2023. And ideally Love is the guy (no, not Favre or Rodgers, but someone who can manage a talented O).

This should be a good year for fans to catch their breath with lowered expectations. For the last 30 years we've expected lots of wins and a deep playoff run. That's not gonna be what happens in 2023.
Agree. I feel the same about expecting Rookies to immediately fill starting roles. Yes, they can be a starter, but to expect them to excel right away, isn't a reasonable expectation or something I would rely on. Even if Aaron Rodgers was back, I wouldn't view the current roster as a SB contender. Now with Jordan Love at QB, I see something like a .500 record as being potentially plausible, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it either.
 

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Agree. I feel the same about expecting Rookies to immediately fill starting roles. Yes, they can be a starter, but to expect them to excel right away, isn't a reasonable expectation or something I would rely on. Even if Aaron Rodgers was back, I wouldn't view the current roster as a SB contender. Now with Jordan Love at QB, I see something like a .500 record as being potentially plausible, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it either.
I’d be happy if they finished 8-9 again. It’s more likely to be closer to 6-11, but none of us knows with any certainty. I am hoping they can add a real TE today, probably Musgrave. They sure need TE help. Maybe this is the year to end the 3rd round jinx…..
 

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