With their 1st Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Packers select...

[Dantés]

I get that you're saying he played a similar role to Mathieu but Fitzpatrick has much better size and speed at 6-1 and over 200 pounds in my opinion he compares more to Morgan burnett. But either way yeah he's super versitle. He can play slot corner in 2018 and then move to free safety in 2019 after Clinton Dix departs. I think just like in 2009 when Raji and Matthews got drafted the Packers will want to give pettine a couple guys high that really fit his scheme to a T. I think Fitzpatrick is one of those guys. He's already got one in Wilkerson in free agency.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. I do realize that he's bigger/more athletic. I can kind of see the scenario where he falls, and I would love it. I've heard that some teams don't have a high grade on him because they don't know where they'd play him long term. Slot corner is such a prominent position anymore, that I think you draft him, stick him there, and see whether he's a corner or safety long term. If all he ever does is pick off QB's, break up passes, tackle runners for loss, and get the odd sack here and there from the slot, it's a pick well spent.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Basically every time a player falls due to off-field/character concerns, there is a segment of every fan base that imagines that there's no extra risk and their team is dumb if they pass on them. And yet most of the time, these guys bust. And even the success stories, a la Vontaze Burfict, often come with more headaches than anyone wants to deal with.

Speaking of....LOL

Vontaze Burfict has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2018 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance-enhancing substances.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Sure, the later you pick, the slimmer it gets that you are actually picking an impact player, or "hitting" on the pick. However, I'd consider the top 50 players to be players that have roughly similar "hit" rates. In theory, these players all have the potential to become sure fire NFL starters to NFL stars, and then I'd rather step an extra time to the plate within the top 50 than get a player at 15 which has a strong chance that they still be there 5 to 10 picks later (looking at Landry and Jackson) considering that we need impact players on multiple positions (EDGE, CB, WR, OL come to my mind first).

There's no doubt the chances are higher to select a sure fire starter at #14 than a round later in the draft though.

If the Packers have truly enough faith in Brice and in Jones to become this hybrid DB that we know James can be, they'll probably go with Fitzpatrick considering we do not have any quality FS depth.

I don't believe the Packers consider Brice as an option to play as a hybrid safety/linebacker.

Out of curiosity, which OT's would you take after the 1st and where?

In my opinion Jamarco Jones in the fourth round would be an intriguing option.

 

[GleefulGary]

There's no doubt the chances are higher to select a sure fire starter at #14 than a round later in the draft though.



I don't believe the Packers consider Brice as an option to play as a hybrid safety/linebacker.



In my opinion Jamarco Jones in the fourth round would be an intriguing option.

I like Jamarco Jones.

Don't think there's a prayer that he's available in the 4th.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I like Jamarco Jones.

Don't think there's a prayer that he's available in the 4th.

I would possibly be fine with selecting him in the third round as well.

 

[OldSchool101]

The only reason I would consider a trade back from #14 is because this is year may be the exception to all years. The QB crop is weighted heavier at the top. It's conceivable that a team wanting a QB remaining at #14 would pay to get said QB as if they were picking in the top 10. We have already confessed to be building from the ground up this year and that requires the correct player fits on both sides of the ball
Imagine moving back 5-10 spots but getting an additional 2nd rounder both this year and next. Then packaging this years trade player (2nd rounder etc..or whatever) with our 2nd rounder to move back into the latter half of day 1 for a second time.
One could argue that the having 2 players picked top #20-#30 overall will give us every bit as good a chance to land 1 solid starter as 1 player picked at #14. Not to mention that if one goes down with the GB injury bug then we haven't lost all our resources at the top end. We could very well have a combination of Edge and either CB, OG or WR locked up by pick #25, with another day 2 pick next year to assist the mini rebuild. Even if we have to use a comp pick to accomplish this it could make some sense.

 

[elcid]

The only reason I would consider a trade back from #14 is because this is year may be the exception to all years. The QB crop is weighted heavier at the top. It's conceivable that a team wanting a QB remaining at #14 would pay to get said QB as if they were picking in the top 10. We have already confessed to be building from the ground up this year and that requires the correct player fits on both sides of the ball
Imagine moving back 5-10 spots but getting an additional 2nd rounder both this year and next. Then packaging this years trade player (2nd rounder etc..or whatever) with our 2nd rounder to move back into the latter half of day 1 for a second time.
One could argue that the having 2 players picked top #20-#30 overall will give us every bit as good a chance to land 1 solid starter as 1 player picked at #14. Not to mention that if one goes down with the GB injury bug then we haven't lost all our resources at the top end. We could very well have a combination of Edge and either CB, OG or WR locked up by pick #25, with another day 2 pick next year to assist the mini rebuild. Even if we have to use a comp pick to accomplish this it could make some sense.

This. This is basically what I was trying to say in my best English for the past months but which you so perfectly coveyed right here. If some team like the Saints, Steelers or Patriots (or all 3!) would like to jump 3 teams that could possibly take a Qb in the Cards, Chargers and Ravens, they could be willing to heavily overpay. If we were to be able to pick twice in the 20-30 range, and still have a 2nd rounder, I’d be thrilled.

I don’t like any of the likely available CB’s at #14, and personally I’m not stoked on Landry there either. Don’t like any of the WR’s or OL’s at #14. If Smith, James, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Barkley and Ward are off the board and we’re on the clock, I’d love this trade back

 

[OldSchool101]

This. This is basically what I was trying to say in my best English for the past months but which you so perfectly coveyed right here. If some team like the Saints, Steelers or Patriots (or all 3!) would like to jump 3 teams that could possibly take a Qb in the Cards, Chargers and Ravens, they could be willing to heavily overpay. If we were to be able to pick twice in the 20-30 range, and still have a 2nd rounder, I’d be thrilled.

I don’t like any of the likely available CB’s at #14, and personally I’m not stoked on Landry there either. Don’t like any of the WR’s or OL’s at #14. If Smith, James, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Barkley and Ward are off the board and we’re on the clock, I’d love this trade back

That's the key. IF our main prospects are gone. It's a big IF but also one that isn't out of the picture.
My dream scenario is that the Chargers pull the trigger this year and move in front of Arizona. They have to be thinking about grooming a replacement for Rivers soon. I'd say either this year or next. I feel like here we can get the best of both worlds, not losing a beat and picking up a another second day pick.

 

[Mondio]

are the QB's really that good this year? I mean, if there are at least 4 sure fire first rounders, but are people really going to clamor over the 2nd round talent and try and jump into the first to get them? For every team that needs a qb, I think other teams realize if you have a shut down corner or speedy middle or edge rusher that can lock down a position, it can help you with a lesser QB, why reach for lower round talent, when first round is sitting there for the taking.

I know QB's get over valued, but will there really be that much of a push for them this year? I don't think there will be that much positioning to try and get one

 

[OldSchool101]

are the QB's really that good this year? I mean, if there are at least 4 sure fire first rounders, but are people really going to clamor over the 2nd round talent and try and jump into the first to get them? For every team that needs a qb, I think other teams realize if you have a shut down corner or speedy middle or edge rusher that can lock down a position, it can help you with a lesser QB, why reach for lower round talent, when first round is sitting there for the taking.

I know QB's get over valued, but will there really be that much of a push for them this year? I don't think there will be that much positioning to try and get one

There already has been

 

[Dantés]

That's the key. IF our main prospects are gone. It's a big IF but also one that isn't out of the picture.
My dream scenario is that the Chargers pull the trigger this year and move in front of Arizona. They have to be thinking about grooming a replacement for Rivers soon. I'd say either this year or next. I feel like here we can get the best of both worlds, not losing a beat and picking up a another second day pick.

This would be perfectly fine if the Packers’ top tier is gone and there are enough of the next tier to guarantee one at #17.

Also the Chargers are a supremely stupid organization. So fleece the crap out of them.

 

[OldSchool101]

This would be perfectly fine if the Packers’ top tier is gone and there are enough of the next tier to guarantee one at #17.

Also the Chargers are a supremely stupid organization. So fleece the crap out of them.

Funny! Then we will beat them with a wet Carp and simultaneously shout "No Comp Picks For You!"

 

[Poppa San]

The only reason I would consider a trade back from #14 is because this is year may be the exception to all years. The QB crop is weighted heavier at the top. It's conceivable that a team wanting a QB remaining at #14 would pay to get said QB as if they were picking in the top 10. We have already confessed to be building from the ground up this year and that requires the correct player fits on both sides of the ball
Imagine moving back 5-10 spots but getting an additional 2nd rounder both this year and next. Then packaging this years trade player (2nd rounder etc..or whatever) with our 2nd rounder to move back into the latter half of day 1 for a second time.
One could argue that the having 2 players picked top #20-#30 overall will give us every bit as good a chance to land 1 solid starter as 1 player picked at #14. Not to mention that if one goes down with the GB injury bug then we haven't lost all our resources at the top end. We could very well have a combination of Edge and either CB, OG or WR locked up by pick #25, with another day 2 pick next year to assist the mini rebuild. Even if we have to use a comp pick to accomplish this it could make some sense.

I just don't effin get some posters. For years, the mantra on this board by many was that TT could not get elite players because he was always picking late in the first round. NOW? we have a top half pick and people want to trade down into the lower end of the first round. You know, where the non-elite get picked.

 

[Dantés]

I just don't effin get some posters. For years, the mantra on this board by many was that TT could not get elite players because he was always picking late in the first round. NOW? we have a top half pick and people want to trade down into the lower end of the first round. You know, where the non-elite get picked.

I would start with the foundational understanding that "posters" is plural and they aren't all saying/thinking the same thing at the same time.

 

[OldSchool101]

I just don't effin get some posters. For years, the mantra on this board by many was that TT could not get elite players because he was always picking late in the first round. NOW? we have a top half pick and people want to trade down into the lower end of the first round. You know, where the non-elite get picked.

Which players do you consider "Elite" in this draft? (let's keep QB's out for the sake of argument please)

 

[AmishMafia]

I just don't effin get some posters. For years, the mantra on this board by many was that TT could not get elite players because he was always picking late in the first round. NOW? we have a top half pick and people want to trade down into the lower end of the first round. You know, where the non-elite get picked.

Gotta disagree. My mantra has always been biggest bang for the buck. If an elite player makes it too us we should stay put and take him. If they are gone we should trade back.

Where does the idea come where just because it's a high pick the player must be elite? #14 overall picks bust.


2017 Derek Barnett Eagles 1 14 14 DE Tennessee
2016 Karl Joseph Raiders 1 14 14 DB West Virginia
2015 DeVante Parker Dolphins 1 14 14 WR Louisville
2014 Kyle Fuller Bears 1 14 14 DB Virginia Tech
2013 Star Lotulelei Panthers 1 14 14 DT Utah
2012 Michael Brockers Rams 1 14 14 DT Louisiana State
2011 Robert Quinn Rams 1 14 14 DE North Carolina
2010 Earl Thomas Seahawks 1 14 14 DB Texas
2009 Malcolm Jenkins Saints 1 14 14 DB Ohio State
2008 Chris Williams Bears 1 14 14 T Vanderbilt
2007 Darrelle Revis Jets 1 14 14 DB Pittsburgh
2006 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles 1 14 14 DT Florida State
2005 Thomas Davis Panthers 1 14 14 DB Georgia
2004 Tommie Harris Bears 1 14 14 DT Oklahoma
2003 Michael Haynes Bears 1 14 14 DE Penn State
2002 Jeremy Shockey Giants 1 14 14 TE Miami (FL)
2001 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers 1 14 14 T Florida
2000 Bubba Franks Packers 1 14 14 TE Miami (FL)
1999 John Tait Chiefs 1 14 14 T Brigham Young
1998 Jason Peter Panthers 1 14 14 DT Nebraska
1997 Reinard Wilson Bengals 1 14 14 DE Florida State
1996 Eddie George Oilers 1 14 14 RB Ohio State

That's a pretty good hit rate, but certainly not guaranteed.

The way I see it, unless a top 10 player drops to us, the next 10 or so are about the same quality. So if we drop down to low 20s we are still getting the same quality of player AND another 2nd pr 3rd rounder. Why the hell would a fan be opposed to it?

BTW, 3 of the busts on the list are all 3 of the bears picks. Bwahahhahaha!

 

[GleefulGary]

So much of it depends on the draft. Some lack star power, some lack depth, some have a great top 10 and then a big drop off...it just depends.

I think there's about 15-17 good top end players in this draft and then a drop off. I'd be hesitant to trade back, but it all depends on who's available.

 

[GleefulGary]

With that said, the draft is a crapshoot for everybody. Sure, some are better at it than others, but it's still a crapshoot.

In general, the best method is to get as many picks as possible, ideally in rounds 1-4. There are going to be players that you miss on, but if you have more chances, you (obviously) have more chances to hit.

 

[Mondio]

There already has been

yes, and to the top of the draft. That's kind of expected. There always seem to be 1 or 2 BIG names at QB that people position for. Some are saying that there are 4 at least worthy of 1st round picks this year and even more that will leave people trying to position to get back in around #14 in the draft to get a QB? This would have to be an outstanding year for college QB's for me to believe people will be positioning themselves to move up in the middle part of the first round and still expect a 1st round rated QB. I just don't believe there are that many rated that highly in reality. It's nice to think about, but if 4 QBs are really going in the top 10, are there really that good of QB's left on the board at 14? I have to think anybody serious about a QB is going to be in the to 5 picks.

i'm going to be surprised if there are more than 4 QB's taken in the first round. I'm going to be floored if 4 are taken in the top 10 and someone trades to #14 to get what's left. If that happens, there are going to be playmakers all over the field left on the board. I think people are vastly overrating value of the QB's.

 

[Dantés]

With that said, the draft is a crapshoot for everybody. Sure, some are better at it than others, but it's still a crapshoot.

In general, the best method is to get as many picks as possible, ideally in rounds 1-4. There are going to be players that you miss on, but if you have more chances, you (obviously) have more chances to hit.

This is totally true, and yet it’s also accurate that more NFL difference making players are found in the top of the first round than in the bottom. So you have to hold both sides of it in tension.

But say that the Packers have a top tier or two of players that includes guys like Chubb, Barkley, Nelson, Edmunds, Smith, Landry, James, Fitz, and Ward. And say they’re all gone at #14 and the next tier of guys includes Jackson, Hurst, Vander Esch, and Ridley and they’re all similarly graded. It would be silly not to pick up an extra pick to move back 3 spots and grab an extra 3rd since you’re guaranteed one of the guys in that tier.

 

[Dantés]

yes, and to the top of the draft. That's kind of expected. There always seem to be 1 or 2 BIG names at QB that people position for. Some are saying that there are 4 at least worthy of 1st round picks this year and even more that will leave people trying to position to get back in around #14 in the draft to get a QB? This would have to be an outstanding year for college QB's for me to believe people will be positioning themselves to move up in the middle part of the first round and still expect a 1st round rated QB. I just don't believe there are that many rated that highly in reality. It's nice to think about, but if 4 QBs are really going in the top 10, are there really that good of QB's left on the board at 14? I have to think anybody serious about a QB is going to be in the to 5 picks.

i'm going to be surprised if there are more than 4 QB's taken in the first round. I'm going to be floored if 4 are taken in the top 10 and someone trades to #14 to get what's left. If that happens, there are going to be playmakers all over the field left on the board. I think people are vastly overrating value of the QB's.

I would say that 3 going before Green Bay is a lock between the Browns, Jets, and Bills. Then when you consider that the Giants, Broncos, and Dolphins could all also be players, it’s hard to imagine that there won’t be 4.

 

[Mondio]

I would say that 3 going before Green Bay is a lock between the Browns, Jets, and Bills. Then when you consider that the Giants, Broncos, and Dolphins could all also be players, it’s hard to imagine that there won’t be 4.

4 would be a lot even, but 4 before GB and then someone is trading up to 14 to grab what is left? I don't see it. There are never that many good QB's in a draft. 4 in a first round is not that common. 4 at 1-14? I'm just not seeing it. I admit, I don't watch all these college teams, but it would be an anomaly to have that many highly rated QB's in draft. most years see 2 maybe and some guy later in the first. I think the value of other players is going to be evident to all these teams over the value at just hoping a QB you don't have rated very highly will perform that way because you decided to trade picks to move up in the first to get him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

4 would be a lot even, but 4 before GB and then someone is trading up to 14 to grab what is left? I don't see it. There are never that many good QB's in a draft. 4 in a first round is not that common. 4 at 1-14? I'm just not seeing it. I admit, I don't watch all these college teams, but it would be an anomaly to have that many highly rated QB's in draft. most years see 2 maybe and some guy later in the first. I think the value of other players is going to be evident to all these teams over the value at just hoping a QB you don't have rated very highly will perform that way because you decided to trade picks to move up in the first to get him.

Shhhhh.....of all the years we want a QB heavy first round, this is it and I don't have any doubt 4 will go before the Packers pick and that number could rise as high 5 with Lamar Jackson. At one point Mason Rudolph was talked about as a possibilty of even going early, but now I see him being mocked late first, early second.

I've been saying it for weeks, if one of those top 5 (Jackson) are still on the board at 14, Gute may just get the pick he wants as well as an additional pick in the late second, early 3rd by just trading back a few spots. I don't want to see the
Packers completely trade out of the first, but no harm in sliding back a bit if they still get the guy they would have taken at #14.

 

[Mondio]

I certainly won't be upset if all these teams do value all these qbs that highly. It only helps us.

 

[Dantés]

Shhhhh.....of all the years we want a QB heavy first round, this is it and I don't have any doubt 4 will go before the Packers pick and that number could rise as high 5 with Lamar Jackson. At one point Mason Rudolph was talked about as a possibilty of even going early, but now I see him being mocked late first, early second.

I've been saying it for weeks, if one of those top 5 (Jackson) are still on the board at 14, Gute may just get the pick he wants as well as an additional pick in the late second, early 3rd by just trading back a few spots. I don't want to see the
Packers completely trade out of the first, but no harm in sliding back a bit if they still get the guy they would have taken at #14.

It actually seems really likely to me that Anthony Lynn likes Lamar Jackson a lot. He's a running game guy all the way. A QB who can open up so much of the offense due to his running threat would seem like a really attractive option for him. And Arizona very well could like Jackson too, thus providing the motivation for the move. Wilks is a defensive guy, and those are generally the head coaches that are more comfortable with a "playmaker" at QB who doesn't always operate within the confines of the offense. Most defensive coordinators hate game planning against QB's that can run. And Wilks has spent the last several years with Cam Newton finding success in Carolina.