Will we have a 2020 NFL Season?

[XPack]

EPL has resumed to playing with no live attendance. NFL was considering 50% or lower attendance to maintain social distancing. But then with the virus rates hiking up in Texas, Florida and the like, it'd set a dangerous precedent for even small number of travelling fans.

What we're likely to see is:
- No in-stadium fans.
- Player Unions agree for players to sign a contract acknowledging risks and not to sue NFL if they catch covid.
- If states are still on high cases list, play at a neutral low rate venue.

Where it gets interesting is if a player catches covid mid season and the team has to quarantine. Would make the season pointless, if that happens.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If states are still on high cases list, play at a neutral low rate venue.

At this rate you have to wonder if there will be such a place. New York, having gotten their arms around it after droconian measures following the science, has just implemented a 14 day quarantine on travelers coming from 15 states, all the southern and western hot spots. Chicago has followed suit. The places doing well or at least better might not be so welcoming.

Brazil and maybe Russia are the only developed or semi-developed countries in the world that have shown worse performance in controlling this thing than the good ol' USA. Consequently, if there was any thought of moving games to Europe, Wembly for example, England already has a quarantine in place for US travelers. The EU is opening travel from places deemed "safe". The US is not on that list.

 

[lambeaulambo]

Oh I certainly am not advocating doing it,it was just running as an option. At the end of the day it`s just a sport.

oh bloody hell...first a fake woman now this....dimentia LOL. He has good days (and bad..)

 

[lambeaulambo]

I am praying for a season. Considering that the players will decide their own individual fates, I am anticipating a season but the medical profession still doesn't know all the facts about this beast. That being said, I will be surprised if a full season happens, but make no mistake - I'll watch ANY packer game that occurs.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The NFLPA is now recommending cancellation of preseason altogether with a 48 day schedule of team activities before the start of the season. The schedule can be found here:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...cussing-player-opt-out-scenario-with-nfl-per/

With the season starting on 9/10, that would put guys showing up right around 7/24. Players traveling to facilities in New York or Chicago, or anywhere else in the meantime where 14 day quarantines apply to current hot spots, would have to get going right around 7/10 and then find a place to hang out for two weeks. That's only 6 days away.

Of course, New York is "only" leveling a $10,000 fine so if, for example, the Bills call their guys in to Orchard Park, NY after 7/10, they could just pay the fines and issue a public FU in the process.

Time is getting short for even this plan, the NFL office is still sitting on a two preseason game proposal, and the national case curve is bending up parabolically.

Even if they go forward with the NFLPA plan, what happens when all 90 players + coaches + staff show up and are tested on or about 7/24? Right now Johns Hopkins is reporting 7.5% of tests are coming in positive on a 7-day moving average, climbing at a steady rate from 4.4% in mid-June. Some hot spots are approaching 20%. So if everybody shows up on the appointed 7/24 date, what are the odds of several positive tests resulting in whatever comes next...shut down, sanitizing, quarantines, what have you? Quite high, I'd say.

Something tells me the NFL and NFLPA are working from behind the curve.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

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[ARPackFan]

To add to what HardRightEdge posted above - I would guess that the average NFL team has in excess of 125 individuals in the facility on a daily basis during the season (53 + 12 practice + 27 coaches + front office + support). That's a minimum of 4000 people for the 32 NFL teams. The odds of keeping 4000 people from being exposed to COVID-19 is somewhere between slim and none. The NBA will attempt to salvage their season with far fewer people and in a controlled environement (at least until player(s) sneak someone in for a **********). My gut feeling is that the NBA will fail and end up canceling the season. My opinion is the 2020 season will either be canceled outright or will be cancelled after a few weeks of the regular season unless the NFL takes a more unconventional approach such as a shortened spring season if a vaccine is developed by end of 2020.

 

[AKCheese]

As a country we’re continuing to thumb our nose at this thing and it continues to kick our ***. If they try to hold a season it will be a joke.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The NFL sent Covid-19 protocols for training camp and preseason to teams yesterday including this detailed breakdown for handling individuals exposed to someone who tested positive.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

MLB is already running into issues just trying to bring guys in to train, 31 players tested positive and players already dropping out and saying they won't be playing.

Can the NFL design a self contained helmet and mask, with a built in oxygen tank?

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[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

So they go ahead with the collage or NFL football season with or without fans, then into
2, 3, 4 games of the season players start getting sick, puke'n in their helmets to the point they don't know if they'll
play the following games.

Now we have a problem Huston.

 

[rmontro]

The NFL sent Covid-19 protocols for training camp and preseason to teams yesterday including this detailed breakdown for handling individuals exposed to someone who tested positive.

If a player is positive and symptomatic, it doesn't say anything about testing negative before you're allowed to come back. So is that an oversight, or do symptomatic people who have had it continue to test positive? It seems odd, because the asymptomatic player who tests positive has to test negative on two consecutive tests.

So they go ahead with the collage or NFL football season with or without fans, then into 2, 3, 4 games of the season players start getting sick, puke'n in their helmets to the point they don't know if they'll
play the following games.

Now we have a problem Huston.

It's only a problem if the Bears or Vikings win the Super Bowl because of it.

We have more cases now than ever. It seems like madness to have a football season now, especially if they're going to pack fans into the stadiums. But hey, it's been a crazy year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well need to see case improvement in the next 30 days or so and we likely will. I’m watching the death toll in conjunction with the new cases because that lags behind a couple weeks and there’s not as many variables. While it’s 1-3 weeks later, It’s a more accurate depiction of our situation. Plus let’s face it, if there were zero deaths And 200,000 new cases per day would anyone really care? It’s about deaths not cases.

But the reality is they are linked (although the ratio is a moving target and is dropping which is important). I like the 15,000 cases threshold area and dropping. We were averaging just under 20K snd making progress several weeks ago, so it’s still possible of getting there by next month. That starts putting things into reasonable perspective as far as a more realistic containment. My hope is that we will plateau this week (cases) and see another drop like April.
If it doesn’t get significantly better there won’t be a season, which sucks. If the NFL can push the start date out a couple weeks and maybe skip the bye week that still gives us several months. My math tells me it all depends on end of July numbers. So we need a turn around inside 3 weeks.

While there are pockets of resistance in “not caring” I haven't seen much of that down here in Texas anyways. 75% of the folks here have masks on in public and these stories about “big gatherings” are largely media driven. You can find media stories anywhere. I can speak for my city of 106K people and the city I work (80K) and they have been.. and still are taking this seriously. Are there exceptions yes. but my cul de sac has been shut down since March area so please stop with this “people don’t care“ business. I take issue with that stuff because far more people do care and this has affected peoples lives.

I don’t like this selfish attitude I’ve been seeing of persons putting personal or political objectives ahead of our fellow citizens like this is a contest. Claiming to care and then in the same breath carelessly sensationalizing a deadly pandemic that has destroyed lives all for some personal gain. That’s the definition of hypocrite and the epitome of uncaring. I have family in 7 states and I pray everyday for healing for this country even though I know we don’t deserve it. We’ve completely boxed God out of everything (including members of my own family) and then wonder why it’s costing us. I’ll keep pleading with God first thing each morning for our country, but please stop with the “people don’t care” business. I’m just wondering how much the people that say that have prayed for me? Or have truly prayed for the success and healing of our country and are willing to fully put their personal desires aside to see it happen?

 

[rmontro]

Well need to see case improvement in the next 30 days or so and we likely will. I’m watching the death toll in conjunction with the new cases because that lags behind a couple weeks and there’s not as many variables. While it’s 1-3 weeks later, It’s a more accurate depiction of our situation. Plus let’s face it, if there were zero deaths And 200,000 new cases per day would anyone really care? It’s about deaths not cases.

I'm also watching the death count, because that will tell the more true story. I heard someone theorize that perhaps the virus has mutated into a more contagious version. That seems unlikely, but at this point who knows? If the death count does not rise to match the number of cases, it is probably one of several things going on:

1) The virus is mutating to a less lethal version
2) The heat of the summer is somehow rendering it less deadly
3) The jump in cases is due to increased testing, so more cases are being detected.

If the deaths don't increase significantly, maybe we'll have a season. If they do, there's no way.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'm also watching the death count, because that will tell the more true story. I heard someone theorize that perhaps the virus has mutated into a more contagious version. That seems unlikely, but at this point who knows? If the death count does not rise to match the number of cases, it is probably one of several things going on:

1) The virus is mutating to a less lethal version
2) The heat of the summer is somehow rendering it less deadly
3) The jump in cases is due to increased testing, so more cases are being detected.

If the deaths don't increase significantly, maybe we'll have a season. If they do, there's no way.

Here's the thing, the focus on mortality ignores some of the other scary elements. Covid has unknown long-term impacts on the lungs and that's a scary prospect for pro athletes. Now, for those not interested in health impact and just want football, the silver lining is that NFL players, of all the sports, have shorter careers and are probably going to be the most willing to risk things to get paid.

An important thing to remember is the length of recovery that some athletes will face; just getting it and surviving it doesn't take into account the recovery time to get cariodvascular fitness back. A month after testing positive, Von Miller was saying that his lungs were still getting back into shape. So, while there very well might be a season this year, I think the determining factor in who wins the Super Bowl (among the good teams) is probably going to be which teams lose the fewest players to Covid19 for extended periods of time.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Well need to see case improvement in the next 30 days or so and we likely will. I’m watching the death toll in conjunction with the new cases because that lags behind a couple weeks and there’s not as many variables. While it’s 1-3 weeks later, It’s a more accurate depiction of our situation. Plus let’s face it, if there were zero deaths And 200,000 new cases per day would anyone really care? It’s about deaths not cases.

But the reality is they are linked (although the ratio is a moving target and is dropping which is important). I like the 15,000 cases threshold area and dropping. We were averaging just under 20K snd making progress several weeks ago, so it’s still possible of getting there by next month. That starts putting things into reasonable perspective as far as a more realistic containment. My hope is that we will plateau this week (cases) and see another drop like April.
If it doesn’t get significantly better there won’t be a season, which sucks. If the NFL can push the start date out a couple weeks and maybe skip the bye week that still gives us several months. My math tells me it all depends on end of July numbers. So we need a turn around inside 3 weeks.

While there are pockets of resistance in “not caring” I haven't seen much of that down here in Texas anyways. 75% of the folks here have masks on in public and these stories about “big gatherings” are largely media driven. You can find media stories anywhere. I can speak for my city of 106K people and the city I work (80K) and they have been.. and still are taking this seriously. Are there exceptions yes. but my cul de sac has been shut down since March area so please stop with this “people don’t care“ business. I take issue with that stuff because far more people do care and this has affected peoples lives.

I don’t like this selfish attitude I’ve been seeing of persons putting personal or political objectives ahead of our fellow citizens like this is a contest. Claiming to care and then in the same breath carelessly sensationalizing a deadly pandemic that has destroyed lives all for some personal gain. That’s the definition of hypocrite and the epitome of uncaring. I have family in 7 states and I pray everyday for healing for this country even though I know we don’t deserve it. We’ve completely boxed God out of everything (including members of my own family) and then wonder why it’s costing us. I’ll keep pleading with God first thing each morning for our country, but please stop with the “people don’t care” business. I’m just wondering how much the people that say that have prayed for me? Or have truly prayed for the success and healing of our country and are willing to fully put their personal desires aside to see it happen?

I completely agree. It's very possible to control this, ever other developed nation has, Americas just need to be smart about health precautions.

 

[pacmaniac]

It's still too early to tell for football, but MLB and NBA have quite a few players opting out of their seasons. Same might happen for the NFL. Whoever wins the Super Bowl this season may have a big asterisk next to it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If a player is positive and symptomatic, it doesn't say anything about testing negative before you're allowed to come back. So is that an oversight, or do symptomatic people who have had it continue to test positive? It seems odd, because the asymptomatic player who tests positive has to test negative on two consecutive tests.

It seems that players returning after testing positive don't have to test negative at all. A player not showing any symptoms could return earlier by doing so though.

For anyone interested here's a link to the full document:

https://static.www.nfl.com/image/upload/league/li5waurvjxm25abzewml.pdf

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think people are still being over optimistic about a season. What has changed since April? Not much in my opinion.

• Same Virus? Seems to be
• Contagious? Yes
• Antibody Immunity? Unsure. Not enough is known at this time, but nobody is certain about any immunity once you have had it. So no proof of herd immunity as many thought would happen.
• Therapeutic Drugs to treat? This to me will be what will make or break having a season. Some drugs are in trial stages, if they can actually find something that successfully helps in treatment and reduces death greatly, this might be the "magic pill" to having a season.
• Vaccine(s): All still in research and testing phase, not predicted to happen until 2021.
  

So even if numbers go back down again, without really good therapeutics, I just can't see how any major team sport will open and stay open. The risk of infection and spreading it is just too high, with the recovery time to be able to play again, also unknown. Will be interesting to watch what happens with European Football leagues that are starting back up, of course, most of Europe is in much better shape than the US currently is.

 

[HardRightEdge]

1) The virus is mutating to a less lethal version
2) The heat of the summer is somehow rendering it less deadly
3) The jump in cases is due to increased testing, so more cases are being detected.

I'm not sure where you got 1) and 2).

The affects of the mutations identified so far are suspected to be inconsequential but still unknown. At worst, they can render the vaccines currently under development less affective.

The heat of summer is not rendering it more deadly. It's that positive test cases are skewing much younger to a healthier population while more testing is being done. It stands to reason if testing is limited to people with symptoms as in the early days vs. testing through contract tracing of people who have no symptoms, positive cases per test are bound to go down. But are they? Not is some places.

Old folks and folks at risk are taking greater precautions while younger, healthier folks were partying like it's 1999 anywhere social gathering prohibitions were lifted. It's sociopathic behavior--the youthful sense of invulnerability is understandable; obliviousness to the risk of passing the virus on to another is not. It's not unlike drunk driving.

This is nothing like seasonal flu with the evidence smacking you upside the head since March.

3) is certainly correct as noted above. However, the severity of the pandemic is best measured in hospitalizations and the death rate will eventually climb as ICU admissions climb, with some lag time. Climbing they are in current hot spots, to critical levels. If ICU bed demand exceeds supply, which it already does in some places, the death rate will be exacerbated.

Also, it is becoming quite clear this is not a disease of impoverished inner cities and nursing homes. It was recently reported in Erie County, NY (Buffalo region), that white suburbanite positive tests are now coming in at a higher that black inner city residents. It's the difference between early awareness (and fear) vs. complacency. Wherever you find complacency you will find spread. Complacency might have been understandable in March. You have to be pretty stoopid at this point not take recommended precautions.

When all is said and done, it can be like modern war casualties--20+ disabled for every 1 killed. You may get sick from it and recover but that does not mean you will not have permanent lung damage with more medical costs and premature deaths down the road.

 

[rmontro]

It's that positive test cases are skewing much younger to a healthier population while more testing is being done.

Yeah, that's a good one, I forgot to list that one.
It stands to reason that as we reopen, more young people are the first to get out there, while the older, more vulnerable population stays more sheltered.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Will be interesting to watch what happens with European Football leagues that are starting back up, of course, most of Europe is in much better shape than the US currently is.

Germany and Austria restarted their football leagues in mid-May as well as the beginning of June respectively and already finished the seasons without any issues. There are several other leagues going on at the moment with it currently working fine.

Of course you're right that the situation in the US is much more bleak at this point than in most parts of Europe.

 

[gopkrs]

It seems that players returning after testing positive don't have to test negative at all. A player not showing any symptoms could return earlier by doing so though

On the face of it...that sounds ridiculous. Assuming that asymptomatic persons can still spread the virus.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

On the face of it...that sounds ridiculous. Assuming that asymptomatic persons can still spread the virus.

It seems like the NFL assumes that a person tested positive can't spread the virus after 10 days anymore.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yeah, that's a good one, I forgot to list that one.
It stands to reason that as we reopen, more young people are the first to get out there, while the older, more vulnerable population stays more sheltered.

It's amusing that you latch onto the element that supports your argument while ignoring the rest.