Why the Packers have to win the division.

Pokerbrat2000

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What was I wrong about ?

This was already answered by Captain:

Geez, do you even realize that those wild card teams didn't win their division and therefore would have had to win more games to clinch their division??? Just let it go.

But in case you don't understand his explanation:

Every post you listed (shouted) siting a team that failed to earn a wildcard,doesn't prove its easier to win the division to earn a playoff spot. Since each of those teams you cited, also failed to win its own division, thus a playoff spot that year. How would it have been easier for that team to win their division that year then a wildcard spot? It would have taken more wins.
 

PackAttack12

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What was I wrong about ?
When you are wrong, admit it and learn from it. When you are right, boast about it for a post or two, and then be humble about it and continue to converse with the rest of the forum in a respectful manner.

Only in this situation, you are just failing to agree to disagree. There is nothing wrong with that. When a debate reaches a stalemate where each party is dug in and won't change their position, and no new material or evidence is brought into the discussion, it's time to move on.
 

Don Barclay

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Look. Pretty clearly, the OP was positing that it's more LIKELY we make the playoffs via division title than via wild card. Cool, this is speculative argument, ergo there's no definitive right or wrong at this point -- but somewhere along the line, the claim was made by other posters that it would be "easier" to get to the playoffs via winning the division than via wild card. But there's only one strategic path in the NFL, as succinctly noted by others' "just win" posts; i.e., there's NO alternative strategy to trying as hard as possible to win each game, so the only question to debate is what is *more likely*, not what is *easier*.

In the specific case of this year's NFC and our North division, the original post/question raises an interesting discussion and is probably worthy of some good, time-killing speculative argument. However, trying to make the claim that overall, historically in the NFL it's *more likely* to make the playoffs with a certain # of wins by winning your division than via wild card is completely unsupportable, so stop trying to argue that.

Nice article (posted in 2014) here: http://heavy.com/sports/2014/12/nfl-playoffs-prediction-stats-wins/ that shows clearly the (obvious, I would think) correlation between # of wins = increased likelihood of making the playoffs. The way to get to the playoffs? Win your games. There's no other strategy. The article also includes this juicy tidbit:

"Of the 11 teams that made the playoffs since 1990 with eight or fewer wins, seven were Wild Card teams; four were division champs… San Diego (2008), Seattle (2010), Denver (2011) and Green Bay (2013)." This neglects Carolina two years ago as division champs, but it's still not true that it's more likely to go to the playoffs as division champ than wild card w/8 wins.
 
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The idea of re-seeding the playoffs has grown in popularity this season, with theSaints and Falcons currently tied for the NFC South lead at 5-8. Division champions receive at least a first-round home game in the playoffs.

MMQB: NFL playoff format has a pending debacle

From the report:
One formula that will be discussed in the offseason is that in addition to first-round byes for the teams with the best record in the AFC and NFC, two divisional champions in each conference will get home games and the remaining 8 teams will be seeded by win-loss record.

Last month, NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported that NFL owners would discuss the possibility of re-seeding the playoffs, but that change was unlikely because owners prefer to reward division winners with a playoff home game.

The Saints and Falcons each have three games remaining, meaning the best either team could finish is .500.

- Molly Geary

Well, re-seeding the playoffs has been discussed (mostly by the media and not the owners though) but you claimed that the league thought about having the six teams with the best record in a conference making it to the postseason, meaning a division winner doesn't automatically qualify for it. Completely different story.
 

adambr2

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Before expansion, it used to be a little better when there were 3 divisions in each conference instead of 4. 3 division winners and 3 wild cards usually kept undeserving teams out. Obviously that structure doesn't fit now with 32 teams.

I suppose they could do two 8 team divisions in each conference and 4 wild cards which should pretty much solve it, but you're probably going to have to get rid of the 2 games against your traditional divisional rivals which won't be very popular.

As I stated I'd personally be fine with a compromise of the division winners getting a playoff game but not necessarily HFA. But truthfully there's no perfect way to do it. Eventually we'll probably see a 7th seed but for the most part I expect everything else to mostly stay the same, possibly with eventual re-seeding after the WC round.
 

Mondio

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There is no perfect way, I think this way works fine in the grand scheme of things. It keeps most of the rivalries as such. It places importance on the division, it can provide for some late season drama.
 

Poppa San

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Before expansion, it used to be a little better when there were 3 divisions in each conference instead of 4. 3 division winners and 3 wild cards usually kept undeserving teams out. Obviously that structure doesn't fit now with 32 teams.

I suppose they could do two 8 team divisions in each conference and 4 wild cards which should pretty much solve it, but you're probably going to have to get rid of the 2 games against your traditional divisional rivals which won't be very popular.

As I stated I'd personally be fine with a compromise of the division winners getting a playoff game but not necessarily HFA. But truthfully there's no perfect way to do it. Eventually we'll probably see a 7th seed but for the most part I expect everything else to mostly stay the same, possibly with eventual re-seeding after the WC round.
Actually it can if you incorporate 2 existing divisions as pools or whatever term into the new division of 8. Join say the NFC north and south with each pool team playing each other twice and the other pool in your division every season once. Then play two other pools for the rest of the games. I'd want the AFC south for the other pool with the Packers ATM.
 
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Actually it can if you incorporate 2 existing divisions as pools or whatever term into the new division of 8. Join say the NFC north and south with each pool team playing each other twice and the other pool in your division every season once. Then play two other pools for the rest of the games. I'd want the AFC south for the other pool with the Packers ATM.

Teams within a division should play each other the same amount of times.
 

Poppa San

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Teams within a division should play each other the same amount of times.
I'm OK with playing some twice and others once. What would be worse is like NC2A mega conferences where teams don't play each other at all for several seasons. At least those conferences went to a football title bout to find the best team on that day.
 

Robert Mason

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Well, re-seeding the playoffs has been discussed (mostly by the media and not the owners though) but you claimed that the league thought about having the six teams with the best record in a conference making it to the postseason, meaning a division winner doesn't automatically qualify for it. Completely different story.


How do you know it wasn't discussed by the owners ? Can you prove it ?
 
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gopkrs

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I like being in a division with Minihaha, detroit and Da bears. It just seems right. And I like putting an emphasis on winning your division by having to play each team in your division twice. And so I am also for the division champion meaning something i.e., getting into the playoffs. Baseball blew it in this regard. aimho BTW It has probably been mentioned but if we win out in our division...we are in. So we better start playing better or get embarrassed.
 

gopkrs

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Actually, we will still need the best record in the division. Forgot about that for a moment.
 

Robert Mason

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I like being in a division with Minihaha, detroit and Da bears. It just seems right. And I like putting an emphasis on winning your division by having to play each team in your division twice. And so I am also for the division champion meaning something i.e., getting into the playoffs. Baseball blew it in this regard. aimho BTW It has probably been mentioned but if we win out in our division...we are in. So we better start playing better or get embarrassed.


It's a geographic natural with all four in a relative close distance. I didn't really like when they put Tampa Bay in the division. I could never understand back in the 60's having Baltimore in the Western Conference.
 

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