What would be this season's catchphrase?

[XPack]

Rodgers thinks he's about due for a raise. That's hard to argue given what QB contracts have looked like in the last couple of years.

I think he deserves it...with a good restructuring.

 

[XPack]

How would you know?
Better to keep overpaying for diminishing returns, right?

Both are proven playmakers and still have a high potential ceiling to contribute. What makes you think they''ll be duds next season too?

 

[PackerDNA]

Age, and wear and tear. Father Time is undefeated.
I also don't think either player- at least now and going forward- is as good or impactful as your statement seems to indicate.

 

[Mondio]

I think Cobb's potential is still there. His numbers are down, but he did make some big catches for us last year at important times. I don't think he's diminished physically. But with so many options again, not sure he'll ever have huge numbers for us again, but short of Cobb completely falling off the face of the earth, I don't think he's going to be going anywhere even if he is making more than his production warrants.

Matthews always seems to play with a lot of energy, but without a big bounce back this season coming off that injury, i could see him cut next season without a doubt.

 

[PackerDNA]

Cobb is what he is; a great athlete, but undersized, not very fast, and limited.
Matthews may give you a flash play here and there next season, but make no mistake, he's in decline(has been for a while), and that won't get better.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Cobb is what he is; a great athlete, but undersized, not very fast, and limited.
Matthews may give you a flash play here and there next season, but make no mistake, he's in decline(has been for a while), and that won't get better.

Cobb is an above average slot receiver who excels once Rodgers has to scramble outside of the pocket. I expect him to finish his contract with the Packers.

Unfortunately I'm not optimistic that Matthews will be able to perform at an elite level again but hope to be proven wrong. Nevertheless I don't see Thompson releasing him this or next offseason.

There's no doubt both players are significantly overpaid though.

 

[Mondio]

I think he's been in decline as well. The only reason i think he's still here with this cap hit is 2 fold, #1 being that he reportedly was playing with a rather significant injury and he switched positions in the past to better the team and #2, the lack of any depth around him at the position to head into the season with. Had he played all year healthy last year and Fackerell showed a lot without suffering his own injury and another guy for depth, we could very easily have seen Matthews as a cap casualty this year. and unless he completely turns it around this year i expect there's a good chance he will be next season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think he deserves it...with a good restructuring.

For 2017, Rodgers cap hit is $20.3 mil, but his cash in pocket will be $13.7 mil with the remainder of the cap being the last of the prorated signing bonus from the last extension which was for a total of $110 mil over 5 years.

It's hard to argue that Rodgers playing out this contract to age 36, given what QBs have been and will be making over that period will have left him well underpaid.

Now, with the signing bonus rolling off in 2017, his cash-in-pocket and his cap hit are the same for 2018-2019, where he's set to pocket $42 mil cash in base salary and some minor workout and roster bonuses.

So, if you're going rewrite the last two years of the current deal to put more money in Rodgers pocket, which seems to be what he wants and is reasonably justified, to defer the cap hit the signing bonus would need to be quite large, spread over 5 years for cap purposes. That makes sense when the QB is 30 years old. But if you're extending past 2019 / age 36, as in this case, you're likely to be a little more judicious in assigning dead cap to the out years past 2019.

The average of the extension (which I would expect to include a rewrite of 2018-2019, if not 2017 before the seasons starts) the contract will need to be above Luck's $24.6 mil average with all of the $42 mil in the current 2018-2019 deal (or $55 mil if 2017 is rewritten) and then some. Maybe higher than $25 mil on average in consideration of being underpaid in retrospect. Besides, he holds 2 jobs, QB and Assistant OC.

The money here is very, very large, and dumping a substantial portion of the liability into prorated signing bonus in the out years at age 36+ may not be the preferred approach. A more front loaded approach may be preferable, and perhaps that's what the excess cap is for.

It's also worth noting the Green Bay Packers are a business, not just a football team. When you give out a $50 mil signing bonus, that's $50 mil immediately (or maybe over the course of a year), that affects operations, like buying gas stations and hotels to tear down and then building something in it's place.

Somewhere in all of this, the football operation has a cash budget.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

For 2017, Rodgers cap hit is $20.3 mil, but his cash in pocket will be $13.7 mil with the remainder of the cap being the last of the signing bonus from the last extension which was for $110 mil over 5 years.

It's hard to argue that Rodgers playing out this contract to age 36, given what QBs have been and will be making over that period will have left him well underpaid.

Now, with the signing bonus rolling off in 2017, his cash-in-pocket and his cap hit are the same for 2018-2019, where he's set to pocket $42 mil cash in base salary and some minor workout and roster bonuses.

So, if you're going rewrite the last two years of the current deal to put more money in Rodgers pocket, which seems to be what he wants and is reasonably justified, to defer the cap hit the signing bonus would need to be quite large, spread over several years. That makes sense when the QB is 30 years old. But if you're extending past age 36, you're likely to be a little more judicious in assigning dead cap to the out years.

The average of the contract will need to be above Luck's $24.6 mil with all of the $42 mil in the current 2018-2019 deal guaranteed and then some.

The money here is very, very large, and dumping a substantial portion of the liability into prorated signing bonus in the out years into age 37+ may not be the preferred approach.

The Packers could turn the $42 million Rodgers is due in 2018 and '19 into a signing bonus and could pay him an average of $5 million in base salaries in both seasons and yet save $15.2 million in cap space over that period.

With Rodgers planning to play at least five more years I'm absolutely fine with prorating the signing bonus until the 2022 season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers could turn the $42 million Rodgers is due in 2018 and '19 into a signing bonus and could pay him an average of $5 million in base salaries in both seasons and yet save $15.2 million in cap space over that period.

With Rodgers planning to play at least five more years I'm absolutely fine with prorating the signing bonus until the 2022 season.

At the conclusion of 2022 he'll be 39 years old. I don't see the extension going out that far.

And frankly, I don't think $50 mil over 2 years will quite be enough. Hell, the current franchise tag is $21.3 mil.

 

[PackerDNA]

I think he's been in decline as well. The only reason i think he's still here with this cap hit is 2 fold, #1 being that he reportedly was playing with a rather significant injury and he switched positions in the past to better the team and #2, the lack of any depth around him at the position to head into the season with. Had he played all year healthy last year and Fackerell showed a lot without suffering his own injury and another guy for depth, we could very easily have seen Matthews as a cap casualty this year. and unless he completely turns it around this year i expect there's a good chance he will be next season.

Good analysis, but I'd add that my assessment of CM3 is based on just him; he's always been basically a one trick pony, but he's lost a lot of his burst, steadily over the last 3 or 4 years. That doesn't magically reappear as you get older.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

At the conclusion of 2022 he'll be 39 years old. I don't see the extension going out that far.

And frankly, I don't think $50 mil over 2 years will quite be enough. Hell, the current franchise tag is $21.3 mil.

I hope the Packers take a similar approach with Rodgers' contract as the Patriots have done with Brady, whose contract runs through the 2019 season when he will be 42 years old.

 

[PackerDNA]

I've been thinking $150M over 5 or 6 years, big guarantees. Either soon or after this season.

 

[XPack]

The money here is very, very large, and dumping a substantial portion of the liability into prorated signing bonus in the out years at age 36+ may not be the preferred approach. A more front loaded approach may be preferable, and perhaps that's what the excess cap is for.

Informative post!

I did understand that "Guaranteed" doesn't exactly mean guaranteed in NFL parlance. For example, if we sign him on 5 year guaranteed money, only the money he received as signing bonus is guaranteed. They can still cut him a couple of years later and only get the pro-rated hit. Assuming we sign him for extra 5 years after this contract and 3 years down he degrades significantly, we can still get out of the remaining years pay. Right?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Cobb is an above average slot receiver who excels once Rodgers has to scramble outside of the pocket. I expect him to finish his contract with the Packers.

That highlighted passage above has been less and less the case since 2014, and the overall numbers have been in sharp decline. Injuries surely play a part, but wear and tear does as well. I reminded of a shot to the head and one to the neck in the early parts of last last season, while he was on the ground no less without a flag being thrown. There looked like another or two concussion-lite in those hits, to go along with the other nicks, dings and bangs over the years.

I wouldn't expect Cobb to be going anywhere in 2017 with a cap savings of $6.2 mil unless Thompson unexpectedly takes a WR in the first or second round. I certainly do not see that possibility as particularly extreme. Then they might be rethinking this in the "who else ya got" equation.

In 2018, Cobb's cap savings goes to $9.5 mil. While it is too early to say for sure, that number has to be in question.

 

[PackerDNA]

As HRE noted above, the Packers are not nearly as 'up front' cash rich as many teams with deep pocket owners are. Ya gotta be creative.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I hope the Packers take a similar approach with Rodgers' contract as the Patriots have done with Brady, whose contract runs through the 2019 season when he will be 42 years old.

Brady is a unique case among elite players. If you look back at what he's been paid over the years, he's consistently taken one (or more like a dozen) for the team. Woefully underpaid by league standards year after year.

Consider his cash take home in 2016 was $1 mil. It will be $1 mil again in 2017.

When you consider that a player's cap is eventually converted to all cash so long as the guy is not cut, consider Brady's cap hit from 2011 through 2017 has never exceeded $14.8 mil, and the cash pay in 2018 and 2019 is $15 mil per year with $22 mil cap hit in each of those years.

Why? Maybe he likes rings more than the extra money. Or maybe he knows Belichick has a habit of dumping superstars like hot potatoes when they get a little too expensive and he'd prefer building a legacy with NE over a decline somewhere else. Belichick went 3-1 with Jimmy G. and is still hanging on to him, which might also be a kind of message. Or maybe with Giselle's money along with his, he doesn't figure then could ever spend more than that.

Whatever the reasons, when it comes to pay Brady is sui generis.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I did understand that "Guaranteed" doesn't exactly mean guaranteed in NFL parlance. For example, if we sign him on 5 year guaranteed money, only the money he received as signing bonus is guaranteed. They can still cut him a couple of years later and only get the pro-rated hit. Assuming we sign him for extra 5 years after this contract and 3 years down he degrades significantly, we can still get out of the remaining years pay. Right?

It's possible for teams to guarantee base salaries as well. You're right that once the guaranteed money has been paid only the remaining prorated portion of the signing bonus will count against a team's cap as dead money once the player is released or traded.

As HRE noted above, the Packers are not nearly as 'up front' cash rich as many teams with deep pocket owners are. Ya gotta be creative.

I don't believe that's an issue for the Packers at all. The team still made a net profit of more than $10 million after handing out huge signing bonuses to Rodgers and Matthews in 2013 and in addition has a significant reserve fund in place.

 

[PackerDNA]

It's possible for teams to guarantee base salaries as well. You're right that once the guaranteed money has been paid only the remaining prorated portion of the signing bonus will count against a team's cap as dead money once the player is released or traded.



I don't believe that's an issue for the Packers at all. The team still made a net profit of more than $10 million after handing out huge signing bonuses to Rodgers and Matthews in 2013 and in addition has a significant reserve fund in place.

What did the Giants, for example, pay in SB's last year? $130M? I don't know that we could do that.

 

[Poppa San]

What did the Giants, for example, pay in SB's last year? $130M? I don't know that we could do that.

Time value of money. Where is it written you have to pay the SB immediately? Say a $100m bonus is paid out over 5 years where the future years are padded with a 10% interest payment. Or 20%? Another way to evade the cap. Packers may still be paying Aaron for his last SB. IDK.

 

[PackerDNA]

Time value of money. Where is it written you have to pay the SB immediately? Say a $100m bonus is paid out over 5 years where the future years are padded with a 10% interest payment. Or 20%? Another way to evade the cap. Packers may still be paying Aaron for his last SB. IDK.

Good points, Poppa. And after all, SB's are just another way of saying guaranteed money, right?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I did understand that "Guaranteed" doesn't exactly mean guaranteed in NFL parlance. For example, if we sign him on 5 year guaranteed money, only the money he received as signing bonus is guaranteed. They can still cut him a couple of years later and only get the pro-rated hit. Assuming we sign him for extra 5 years after this contract and 3 years down he degrades significantly, we can still get out of the remaining years pay. Right?

Money other than signing bonus can be guaranteed. Base salary can be guaranteed, and those guarantees can vary. They might be unconditional or for injury only. It's however the parties agree.

Extending him 5 years beyond the current contract which runs through 2019 is not what we're contemplating here, or at least I'm not. That takes him out to age 41.

The basis for discussing this matter now is Rodgers' comment in an interview to the affect that, "yeah, I think I'm due for a raise at some point." I would not take that to mean anything other than 2018 at the latest. 2017 as it stands might be OK if there is a new deal soon that rewrites 2018 and 2019. Maybe after the season if The Franchise is OK with that.

Or maybe upon reflection he didn't mean it at all.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Time value of money. Where is it written you have to pay the SB immediately? Say a $100m bonus is paid out over 5 years where the future years are padded with a 10% interest payment. Or 20%? Another way to evade the cap. Packers may still be paying Aaron for his last SB. IDK.

You're probably referring to cases like Steve Young getting paid $40 mil to play in the USFL, however that money was annuitized over 43 years. He never saw that money once the USFL went bust.

I don't believe that kind of "annuity" type deal is done anymore. Whether it's disincentivized in the CBA, or whether the players (and their agents!) want their money now, or whether interest rates have been so low for so long you could never offer the kind of interest to get a player to bite, I couldn't say. I am fairly confident, though, that if there is an annuity type deal still left out there the interest payments would be accounted for somewhere in the cap, and I don't see that showing up anywhere. Even a retired player collecting on such an annuity would show up somewhere in dead cap or the like.

Signing bonuses might get paid out in increments over the course of the league year, but I don't think it goes beyond that.

Nobody has ever come close to a $100 million signing bonus, by the way.

Whopping signing bonuses have a nasty way of backfiring, especially when you get into players in their 30's, a soon to be 34 year old QB or otherwise. If the player doesn't play up to the deal, you've got a very big very big double whammy...you don't have the player you thought you'd have along with a whopping dead cap number sitting there.

Ted Thompson avoids dead cap more than any other GM.

 

[PackerDNA]

Tell you what, if Teddy tries playing games with Rodgers, that's what'll backfire, and this team will be finished.

 

[Poppa San]

Annuity was the word I couldn't think of.

The NFL also has a maximum, 50%.

From here
Something else I found