What do you REALLY think Rodgers would garner in a trade?

tynimiller

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So its a question many of us have weighed in on and many of us even discussed last year. HOWEVER, let's lay out a few of the last big name trades to go down and the one that is supposedly still out there first:

Matthew Stafford Trade
This is perhaps the biggest and most "similar" trade to look to if you're the Packers and/or the team hoping to get him.
Rams gave up for Stafford - Two First Rounders (most assumed would be last 1/3 of the drafts) in future years (2022,2023), a 3rd round pick in the current draft at the time (2021) + Jared Goff (cap shed reasons solely included of course).

Stafford Got - Two First Round Picks, Third Round Pick and a "below average starter at their position because of cap reasons
*Adjusting/Applying this to Rodgers IMO defends the thoughts Rodgers at minimum given his level of play is worth the same as far as picks go...player additions are tough to gauge so I'll merely say this defends the concept of Two First Round Picks plus a Third Round Pick as bottomline. Stafford helping Rams lead his team to a SB IMO doesn't change this some but some would argue that his level of play brings his value more in line with Rodgers value as of today.

Carson Wentz Trade
This trade had some escalators that might elevate one of the picks to a 1st rounder (2022) instead of a 2nd...which were hit. Colts gave up a First Rounder and a Third Rounder

Carson Wentz Got - First Round Pick (2022) and a Third Round Pick (2021)
*This defends the concept of the Stafford IMO as well...if Wentz is worth a First and a Third, Rodgers at minimum is worth substantially more than this.

Deshaun Watson "Trade Discussions"
This is the delusional IMO sky type highside value for a player. Now arguably if legal things clear, Watson's age and skill do make him a more attractable QB.

The "desire" is Three First Round Picks + Three other picks ranging in value.


Speculations on the value of Rodgers I've seen range from as little as Two First Rounders...however the majority of the thoughts appear to be in the Two Day 1 Picks and a mixture of 2-4 Day 2 picks.

Personally, I don't believe you get the Three First Rounders, Two Seconds and players as Albert Breer wrote in December (HERE)...he is crazy high, and even includes some players in his deal.

I'm in the Two Day 1s and Two Day 2s (where one minimum is a 2nd) camp personally. It's more draft equity than Stafford garnered but not too terribly much. Now you could see more Day 2s come Green Bay's way, if say GB includes some Day 3 picks in the transaction which isn't uncommon in larger trades.

I must stress this is merely a thread to discuss what Rodgers is worth in a trade....this is not a debate of whether we should, this is not a debate of how many years Rodgers will play, his playoff record or anything else which can and is discussed everywhere else. This is purely a discussion of IF Rodgers is traded, what REALISTICALLY do you feel the return is?
 
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Pkrjones

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I think it's assumed that IF AR goes elsewhere the picks in return will be a the back of the rounds & that AR helped his new team into the playoffs. I also think AR "commits" to playing through 2024 season for them. I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect at minimum:
2022 - 1st, 3rd & 6th (GB is without theirs) rounders.
2023 - 1st & 2nd with GB returning a 3rd so they're not completely gutted.

I'd also guess that AR negotiates a 3yr/$138Mil extension thru '24, while GB re-sets their cap AND loads up on young talent.
 

Poppa San

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Depends somewhat on destination. Top 15 pick this year plus a 2nd plus a top 20 next year with a contingent 3rd upgraded to 2nd if not top 20 plus a 2024 1st.
Or Philadelphia's 3 1sts this year and another next year.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Depends somewhat on destination. Top 15 pick this year plus a 2nd plus a top 20 next year with a contingent 3rd upgraded to 2nd if not top 20 plus a 2024 1st.
Or Philadelphia's 3 1sts this year and another next year.

Zero teams can know this now...and the concept of getting three firsts from Philly plus next year another is ludacris.
 
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I’m just throwing the 1st thing comes to mind.
2022 1st,2nd, 6th round
2023 1st, 4th,
Plus
2024 3rd round sel OR option
1 current (above average quality) veteran starter right now at our request of 2-3 position groups. QB, WR, TE or DL etc.. that we can plug a hole with 2+ seasons of usage

GB could have
2022: 2-1sts; 2-2nds; 1-3rd; 2-4ths (Linsley comp)1-5th;1-6th-2-7ths (Jamaal)
2023 2-1sts; 1-2nd; 1-3rd;
3-4ths(comp); 2-5ths (comp);
1-6th; 2-7ths(comp)

That’s 23 more Rookie contracts inside 14 months
 
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Poppa San

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Zero teams can know this now...and the concept of getting three firsts from Philly plus next year another is ludacris.
I understand the not knowing if it is a top 20, thus the upgrade of a 3rd to a 2nd if it isn't. Also because it's Philly I want the 3 1sts.
 

Snoops

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The way Green Bay does business.. a conditional 4th round pick with the ability to bump up to a 3rd rounder if Rodgers makes it to the super bowl.
 

Snoops

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But if they actually traded him probably a 1st and 4th round pick and some below average player with Green Bay coughing up a 3rd in the process
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I understand the not knowing if it is a top 20, thus the upgrade of a 3rd to a 2nd if it isn't. Also because it's Philly I want the 3 1sts.

I agree if in doubt someone will ask for the higher of the two for sure...or you work an escalator in there, but that's far too finite to predict IMO, BUT also working in such things if you're the team trading for you give up less because what you give is more predictable and known.

Philly three ones lol you guys are nuts.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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But if they actually traded him probably a 1st and 4th round pick and some below average player with Green Bay coughing up a 3rd in the process

So you truly think if a trade goes down Packers are only getting a First and a Day 3 pick? Alright.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I’m just throwing the 1st thing comes to mind.
2022 1st,2nd, 6th round
2023 1st, 4th,
Plus
2024 3rd round sel OR option
1 current (above average quality) veteran starter right now at our request of 2-3 position groups. QB, WR, TE or DL etc.. that we can plug a hole with 2+ seasons of usage

GB could have
2022: 2-1sts; 2-2nds; 1-3rd; 2-4ths (Linsley comp)1-5th;1-6th-2-7ths (Jamaal)
2023 2-1sts; 1-2nd; 1-3rd;
3-4ths(comp); 2-5ths (comp);
1-6th; 2-7ths(comp)

That’s 23 more Rookie contracts inside 14 months

Very close to my thoughts, you just stretch it out touch further which lessons the rounds a tick quicker. I feel similar.
 

Sanguine camper

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Stafford is 4 years younger than Rodgers so you have to factor that in. Realistically AR has 2 years where the Super Bowl window is open and probably 1 to 2 seasons after that where you expect his play to decline.
I would think that you could expect 2 firsts, a second and third round pick spread out over the 2022 and 2023 drafts. AR is better than Stafford, but he's not getting any younger so I would expect compensation to be similar. Another option would be to take a first, second and third round pick along with a good young starter at TE or WR. Either way, you restock the team with a heaping of young talent and you avoid having the cap drag you you into last place for 3-5 seasons.
 

ARPackFan

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Stafford is 4 years younger than Rodgers so you have to factor that in. Realistically AR has 2 years where the Super Bowl window is open and probably 1 to 2 seasons after that where you expect his play to decline.
I would think that you could expect 2 firsts, a second and third round pick spread out over the 2022 and 2023 drafts. AR is better than Stafford, but he's not getting any younger so I would expect compensation to be similar. Another option would be to take a first, second and third round pick along with a good young starter at TE or WR. Either way, you restock the team with a heaping of young talent and you avoid having the cap drag you you into last place for 3-5 seasons.

I was going to make similar point with Rodgers being 38 last December that any team that trading for him is likely hoping for a 3 year period where Rodgers performs at a high level. Anything beyond that is wishful thinking on the part of the Packers trade partner. I don't see any team giving up three 1st round picks. Another consideration for the Packers is the order of the 2022 draft as they need to assume that the subsequent 2023 1st round pick will be towards the bottom of the round. Denver (#9 pick in 2022 draft) is the likely partner and I think two firsts & Jerry Juedy is what they will offer and maybe a fourth round pick. Jeudy's signing bonus counts against Denver's cap and he would only cost $1.99M (2022) and $2.68 (2023) on his rookie deal. The Packers need to rebuild the WR room.

I'd also like to make the point that it is not a case of Gutekunst deciding to trade Rodgers as it is ultimately Rodgers decision. Gutekunst has painted himself into a corner.

"I want a trade"
"No"
"Then eat a $46.66M cap hit because I won't restructure. See you at camp."
 
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I was going to make similar point with Rodgers being 38 last December that any team that trading for him is likely hoping for a 3 year period where Rodgers performs at a high level. Anything beyond that is wishful thinking on the part of the Packers trade partner. I don't see any team giving up three 1st round picks. Another consideration for the Packers is the order of the 2022 draft as they need to assume that the subsequent 2023 1st round pick will be towards the bottom of the round. Denver (#9 pick in 2022 draft) is the likely partner and I think two firsts & Jerry Juedy is what they will offer and maybe a fourth round pick. Jeudy's signing bonus counts against Denver's cap and he would only cost $1.99M (2022) and $2.68 (2023) on his rookie deal. The Packers need to rebuild the WR room.

I'd also like to make the point that it is not a case of Gutekunst deciding to trade Rodgers as it is ultimately Rodgers decision. Gutekunst has painted himself into a corner.

"I want a trade"
"No"
"Then eat a $46.66M cap hit because I won't restructure. See you at camp."


He can retire (not show up to the traded team). There’s some language in the CBA about not being able to go to some recent playoff contenders. The “At-Will” aspect of the CBA rule is he wouldn’t be an employee of the Packers anymore. He’d likely have to wrestle a Security team to get into camp. That would look terrible on his resume!

I’m not positive, but after he posted bail (for effect :cool:) I believe there are adverse monetary repercussions. Also possibly league fines on top if he’s a hold out. I think Rodgers fell into that trap last season and notice how he scurried back just before the league fines began? The part I do know is he never would gain his final accrued season and therefore would have to come whimpering back to GB if he unretired.

On top of all that short term stuff? If he took the Avenue of alienating his team last second again? Imo Rodgers would absolutely, positively alienate his entire fan base and the 65% (and dropping) of Packer fans that want to already shed him would reverse course and rocket to 99% (except for maybe you and several others from the Manson Clan still at Spahn Ranch)
Shortly afterwards? His endorsement $ would come to a screeching halt. Indirectly he would stand to lose tens of millions of $ if he wants to use your proposed strategy of playing “the jerk”. It would be a Nightmare On Elm street of PR nightmares.

Lastly. This part is trivial if all that happened. The Packers wouldn’t pay him $46mil It would be somewhere between $26mil (dead) and :poop: depending on the final score. Now if you can show us that he has a no-trade clause then just burn my post for me:laugh:
 
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thequick12

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I think 3 firsts is were the conversation starts plus maybe a 2nd/3rd and a starter

Honestly no player of this caliber has ever been traded so find the most anyone has ever given up for a guy and add to it

So like hershal walker or ricky williams maybe....

But unfortunately in this reality if he was gonna be traded Rodgers would likely limit his acceptable teams to one which would decrease his value in trade and thus theoretically allow his new team a better opportunity to compete for a SB
 

ARPackFan

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He can retire (not show up to the traded team). There’s some language in the CBA about not being able to go to some recent playoff contenders. The “At-Will” aspect of the CBA rule is he wouldn’t be an employee of the Packers anymore. He’d likely have to wrestle a Security team to get into camp. That would look terrible on his resume!

I’m not positive, but after he posted bail (for effect :cool:) I believe there are adverse monetary repercussions. Also possibly league fines on top if he’s a hold out. I think Rodgers fell into that trap last season and notice how he scurried back just before the league fines began? The part I do know is he never would gain his final accrued season and therefore would have to come whimpering back to GB if he unretired.

On top of all that short term stuff? If he took the Avenue of alienating his team last second again? Imo Rodgers would absolutely, positively alienate his entire fan base and the 65% (and dropping) of Packer fans that want to already shed him would reverse course and rocket to 100%+
Shortly afterwards? His endorsement $ would come to a screeching halt. Indirectly he would stand to lose tens of millions of $ if he wants to use your proposed strategy of playing “the jerk”. It would be a Nightmare On Elm street of PR nightmares.

Lastly. This part is trivial if all that happened. The Packers wouldn’t pay him $46mil It would be somewhere between $26mil (dead) and :poop: depending on the final score. Now if you can show us that he has a no-trade clause then just burn my post for me:laugh:
I don't believe Rodgers retires but will either remain with GB and redo his contract which will just push cap problems into the future or ask to be traded. The Packers have already let it be known that they want him back.

You are correct that he does not have a "No Trade" clause in his contract but in reality with the way his contract is currently structured it might as well be. The Packers can trade Rodgers to any team they want but no team will give up this mythical collection of draft picks being projected if he does not agree to a contract that he plays beyond 2022. All of this will be part of the trade agreement. Since his contract automatically voids on the 7th day of the 2023 league year his new team cannot franchise tag him and he becomes a true free agent in March of 2023 and can go anywhere he chooses. Any trade that returns more than a token draft pick will need Aaron to agree to a new contract with the new team.

If the Packers will not agree to Rodgers request to be traded he could just do nothing more than play out his contract. It doesn't matter what he tells them in private because he could publicly say "I requested a trade which the Packers have denied. I intend to play out the remaining year on my agreed upon contract." Now the Packers are stuck with a $46.66M cap hit in 2022 which is the sum of his base salary base salary & prorated portion of his signing bonus that he already has. It's not easy to be competitive when one player is taking up 23% of the cap.
 

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Rodgers is 38 so you won't get as much as you would if he was say 35. However
2 first rounders and a 3rd or better conditional is all but guaranteed.

To be honest I'm perfectly fine if they entice him to stay and build a championship team by working salary cap magic, or trade him and build a much stronger younger team for the future and say bring JimmyG for couple of years and let LoveBoy develop, or outright move away from Love and spend next years first rounder they get in Rodgers trade on a star QB.

To be honest I think I'm little more excited about trading Rodgers and building a more all around solid team with heavy focus on D# and running game with just a good QB under Center like JimmyG, then stretching the cap for couple more years and watch sht implode unless ofcourse boys play hard and we win couple of SB back to back.
 

Poppa San

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spend next years first rounder they get in Rodgers trade on a star QB.
Ryan Leaf, Mitch Trubisky, Tim Couch, Christian Ponder, Matt Leinhart, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Griffin, RG3, sexy Rexy Grossman, Jameis Winston were all star QB's. Odds are you get get one of these or a Jay Cutler before a Lamarr Jackson or Andrew Luck.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Ryan Leaf, Mitch Trubisky, Tim Couch, Christian Ponder, Matt Leinhart, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Griffin, RG3, sexy Rexy Grossman, Jameis Winston were all star QB's. Odds are you get get one of these or a Jay Cutler before a Lamarr Jackson or Andrew Luck.

Correct but it isn't a one run thing if we trade Rodgers, at least I don't see it as such. Love will get a serious look - and he was a first round talent....he flops we have the draft equity to immediately swing again. Not defending either stance - trade Rodgers or not, just saying it isn't a one swing situation with the equity trading him gives the organization.
 

Pkrjones

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Correct but it isn't a one run thing if we trade Rodgers, at least I don't see it as such. Love will get a serious look - and he was a first round talent....he flops we have the draft equity to immediately swing again. Not defending either stance - trade Rodgers or not, just saying it isn't a one swing situation with the equity trading him gives the organization.
FYI ~ Jordan Love is 23, turns 24 in November. He is currently the same age as (or a few months older than) '22 QB draftees: Des Ridder, Matt Corral, and is younger than Kenny Pickett. He's 8 months older than Malik Willis. Some "draft experts" are saying Love would've been a top-tier QB if he was in this draft, but he's already had 2 years of NFL coaching. I'm not saying Love is a sure-thing NFL QB, but to already be thinking about spending a '23 1st rounder on a QB is, IMHO, premature.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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FYI ~ Jordan Love is 23, turns 24 in November. He is currently the same age as (or a few months older than) '22 QB draftees: Des Ridder, Matt Corral, and is younger than Kenny Pickett. He's 8 months older than Malik Willis. Some "draft experts" are saying Love would've been a top-tier QB if he was in this draft, but he's already had 2 years of NFL coaching. I'm not saying Love is a sure-thing NFL QB, but to already be thinking about spending a '23 1st rounder on a QB is, IMHO, premature.

Hence why you don't worry about it if Rodgers leaves, Love gets 2022 entirely to himself to prove what he is. Which is precisely what I said.
 

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I'm not sold on Love but he deserves a chance to show what he can do with a first string offence for the duration of a season. Giving him that opportunity will show if can significantly improve over time, or weather he just doesn't get it. Another reason to give him that opportunity is that the Packers traded up in the first round to pick him. Do you really want to see that much draft capital walk after his rookie contract without a proper vetting? Signing Rodgers for another 3 or 4 years makes that much more likely to happen. Not giving him a good opportunity also makes the chances of having to spend additional first round picks in the future on a qb much higher.
 

thequick12

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Rodgers is 38 so you won't get as much as you would if he was say 35. However
2 first rounders and a 3rd or better conditional is all but guaranteed.

To be honest I'm perfectly fine if they entice him to stay and build a championship team by working salary cap magic, or trade him and build a much stronger younger team for the future and say bring JimmyG for couple of years and let LoveBoy develop, or outright move away from Love and spend next years first rounder they get in Rodgers trade on a star QB.

To be honest I think I'm little more excited about trading Rodgers and building a more all around solid team with heavy focus on D# and running game with just a good QB under Center like JimmyG, then stretching the cap for couple more years and watch sht implode unless ofcourse boys play hard and we win couple of SB back to back.

Jimmy G is not a good qb...he is below average. And a terrible decision maker to boot
 
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