Week 4: Buffalo at Green Bay - Time to bounce back

[C-Lee]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/mikerodak/status/1045004781453025281[/TWEET]

 

[MR8]

LeSean McCoy: I’m playing this week
Posted by Josh Alper on September 26, 2018, 2:07 PM EDT
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The Bills won in Minnesota last weekend without the help of running back LeSean McCoy, but McCoy says they won’t have to follow the same formula against the Packers in Green Bay this weekend.

McCoy injured his ribs in Buffalo’s Week Two loss to the Chargers and sat out against the Vikings after making the trip with the team. On Wednesday, he told reporters that he’ll be back in the lineup this week.

“I’m playing this week,” McCoy said. “There’s still some pain but I felt good today. I’m ready to go out and get this thing going again.”

McCoy ran 16 times for 61 yards in the first two weeks before getting hurt. Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy combined to run 28 times for 89 yards in his absence last Sunday.

 

[El Guapo]

Whether the Packers win or not will be more a question of how well our offense works, vs the Bills offense against our defense. We are going to give up points regardless.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Whether the Packers win or not will be more a question of how well our offense works, vs the Bills offense against our defense. We are going to give up points regardless.

I think it will just come down to whoever has the most points at the end of the game.

 

[Dantés]

Whether the Packers win or not will be more a question of how well our offense works, vs the Bills offense against our defense. We are going to give up points regardless.

We'll see. Peter Bukowski posted an interesting stat. I can't really vet him, mind you, so I can't confirm this is absolutely true.

But he said that in the three combined quarters that House played against Minnesota and Washington, the defense allowed 22 and 28 points respectively.

Without him in those games, the defense allowed a total of 10 points (7 to Minnesota and 3 to Washington).

Now clearly all that scoring was not all due to one player. But those results suggest that they've been a stronger defense overall when he's not part of it. And that makes sense-- when healthy, he's barely average. And now we learn that he's been trying to play through a shoulder injury.

 

[mongoose]

I think it will just come down to whoever has the most points at the end of the game.

That's what i thought too, until minn vs pac proved me wrong!

 

[sschind]

Howdy Fellas,

I cam over from "Billievers.com" one of the Buffalo Bills message boards, it's not the biggest board, but it's definitely one of the best out there for Bills football. Smaller group of good people versus the masses if ya know what I mean.

I didn't come to troll, I just popped over to have some discussion about the upcoming game. I'll start off with a few comments about the things said in this thread and then leave it for you all to comment.

So first off, NONE of us saw the win coming against the Vikings haha, anyone who says otherwise is lying or is one of those homer types who predict a SB every year anyways. We were off to a historically terrible start in the first game, the first half of the second game was equally embarassing, and while we "arrested the fall" sorta speak in the second half against the Chargers, it was also noticeable that the Chargers had reverted into run clock mode and they were not trying to score like they were early in the game.

Right now Bills fans don't know what to make of our Offense or Defense. It was night and day last week from what we saw throughout preseason and the first 2 weeks of the regular season. We had high hopes for our defense after we added Star and Murphy in FA to fill holes along the D-Line, and Edmunds was a highly touted but very raw rookie that we were hoping would blossom into our version of Luke Kuechly (Panters Reference because our HC was the DC in Carolina). So we started to see the Defense actually play to the potential we always HOPED they had, but we never expected it to come out so impressively against the Vikings.

As for our Offense, our rookie QB was doing everything to help move the ball and energize the team. Our WRs are a heaping pile of GARBAGE though, they can't catch to save their lives, so thats a massive issue that isn't going to help us any. Our O-Line is terrible up the middle, and they are one of the worst run blocking lines in football right now. Plus LeSean McCoy is still nursing torn rib cartilage and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't play.

My prediction is the Packers walk all over the Bills this week. You have some issues across your offensive line, but Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. While he may be hampered by his injury, he finds holes and makes plays. On top of that his quick release is start contrast to Cousins who holds the ball too long, and doesn't protect the football. I don't see our defense having the same success against Rodgers who knows how to pick a team apart, and can get the ball out before the rush gets to him. If your WRs come to play this game could get out of hand quickly, because our offense simply is not build for a shoot out. Our points last week were largely thanks to field position/turnovers, which is HIGHLY unlikely we will get this time around. Literally every time the ball was fumbled it flopped to the Bills last week. That's just not something you can count on obviously.

So thats my take, I'm happy to give my perspective on things if you guys have questions. But lemme know what your thoughts are from the GB perspective.


FTR, I've always been a fan of the Packers, your storied history, a great blue collar fan base, you guys have been my brothers and my NFC team since we were kids growing up in the 80's and 90's. Nothing but love and respect for all of ya!

Go Bills and Go Pack.... just not this week ;-)

First off Welcome. Second not to sound like an *** or anything but I agree with your prediction of the outcome. Third, I will say that there are some Packer fans who would say much of the same things about the Packers right now as you did about the Bills.

To go back to number 2. I don't think there are any easy wins in the NFL. Teams may thoroughly beat others but but I don't think it is easy. If you look at the last 6 quarters for each team you might be forgiven for thinking they were mixed up. At the very least you might think the Bills are on the way up and the Packers are on the way down. I can't say that about the Bills but I don't think that about the Packers. This is a game that the Packers should win. If you looked at the schedule you might have said "if the Packers go 1-15 they will beat the Bills (OK probably the Jets but close) Anyway, it won't be easy but like you said the Bills team is a wreck. Without Aaron Rodgers I would give the Bills a much better chance obviously but I think he will be able to pick the Bills defense apart. When the Bills have the ball I think the Packers D will force the rookie into some mistakes and like you said it can't always bounce your way. Again, its never easy but like I said in another post if I didn't think the Packers would beat the Bills I would have no reason to pick them to win another game this year.

Best of luck to you and your Bills, after Sunday of course. Personally I have always thought one of the greatest feats in NFL history was the Bills 4 consecutive SB appearances. Granted it was a winless streak and considered the equivalent to the cone of shame but a bad team rarely makes it to 1 SB much less 4 in a row. I am a huge Jim Kelly fan (wish him all the best) and I was rooting for the Bills in all 4 of those games. Hopefully after this Sunday we won't have to wait 4 more years to play you guys again in a game that means something.

 

[sschind]

That's what i thought too, until minn vs pac proved me wrong!

But you weren't wrong. The winner is still the one with the most points, its just that sometimes someone doesn't always have the most points.

 

[MR8]

Whether the Packers win or not will be more a question of how well our offense works, vs the Bills offense against our defense. We are going to give up points regardless.

It's going to be interesting... before last week I figured GB would put up 50+ on us and we'd be lucky to have 14 of our own.

I will say this though, our Offense has no true identity yet... An interesting match up will be our bad rush offense and your bad rush defense. The Bills coming into the year wanted to be a run first team but our offensive line is ATROCIOUS, and is rated by PFF as one of the worst run blocking teams in the league. Can they get it going against your defense is the real question. Looks like Shady will be playing for us, but will he be 100%? Even when he was 100% the couldn't open holes for him... So how many snaps does he play? Is he effective in those snaps? If the Packers Defense can limit Shady, that puts a lot of pressure on a rookie QB to come into one of the hardest stadiums to play in and win it with his arm. That's asking a lot! But I like the match up of his arm versus your secondary... Our WRs just need to actually catch the ball.

As for your O versus our D, I think you guys are going to need to have a quick short passing attack early to limit the pass rush and extend drives. If you can do that, as the game wears on the big uglies up front in our D will tire and it will open the passing attack up for Rodgers as they won't be getting as much pressure. Hyde, Poyer, and White are all fantastic DBs, but behind them we have no one of note, and with Philip Gaines injured we started Taron Johnson last week, who was signed off the Practice Squad Monday and started Sunday. Even if Gaines is healthy, hes better suited as a slot CB but has been thrust into the #2 role with Vonte Davis quitting on the team week 2.

We're a team with some good young talent but it's sparse, and the roster overall is pretty devoid of talent. We have $53.5M in dead cap, so this is by definition a rebuilding year, but the players play hard for each other, and for the first time in 20 years we have a coaching staff who put together pretty good game plans. The question becomes can the Bills catch lightning in a bottle and put it all together with sub-par talent? We did it last year with a 9-7 record and sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the stars aligning.... Right now with this game coming up, it looks kinda crazy that we even have shot... On paper GB is far superior, but when you break down the game group by group, You can see where the Bills have chances to get some things done.

At the end of the day for me, the Rodgers Factor is what ends that conversation though. He will expoit our D, and I think your coaches will be able to confound our rookie QB.

 

[MR8]

First off Welcome. Second not to sound like an *** or anything but I agree with your prediction of the outcome. Third, I will say that there are some Packer fans who would say much of the same things about the Packers right now as you did about the Bills.

To go back to number 2. I don't think there are any easy wins in the NFL. Teams may thoroughly beat others but but I don't think it is easy. If you look at the last 6 quarters for each team you might be forgiven for thinking they were mixed up. At the very least you might think the Bills are on the way up and the Packers are on the way down. I can't say that about the Bills but I don't think that about the Packers. This is a game that the Packers should win. If you looked at the schedule you might have said "if the Packers go 1-15 they will beat the Bills (OK probably the Jets but close) Anyway, it won't be easy but like you said the Bills team is a wreck. Without Aaron Rodgers I would give the Bills a much better chance obviously but I think he will be able to pick the Bills defense apart. When the Bills have the ball I think the Packers D will force the rookie into some mistakes and like you said it can't always bounce your way. Again, its never easy but like I said in another post if I didn't think the Packers would beat the Bills I would have no reason to pick them to win another game this year.

Best of luck to you and your Bills, after Sunday of course. Personally I have always thought one of the greatest feats in NFL history was the Bills 4 consecutive SB appearances. Granted it was a winless streak and considered the equivalent to the cone of shame but a bad team rarely makes it to 1 SB much less 4 in a row. I am a huge Jim Kelly fan (wish him all the best) and I was rooting for the Bills in all 4 of those games. Hopefully after this Sunday we won't have to wait 4 more years to play you guys again in a game that means something.

Thanks man, and I don't think you sound like an *** at all saying the Packers should win. 10 point favorites, at home, against a team that in the first 2 weeks looked like a high school team lol.

I totally get it and don't disagree with anything you're saying... except the "Bills on the rise" part. While I think the franchise as a while is on an upward trajectory, I am not convinced they are there. I think the "rise" wont begin until 2019, when we get back that $54-ishM In dead cap space, and we can use some of those 9 draft picks we've accumulated by trading away our best players.

We have gotten together a good young core, and we have some good vets, but in all our roster is pretty terrible. These guys play hard for each other, but on paper IMHO they are one of the worst if not the worst roster overall in football. HOWEVER they were pretty similarly bad last year and managed 9-7 and a sneak into the playoffs thanks to some magic by other teams.

This should be a "Get Right" game for the Packers, they're a superior team and frankly good teams should beat bad teams. If the Bills win, I think it says more about the Packers this week than the Bills. I think the Bills are scrappy and they're going to fight hard, but if the Packers lose I think it will be more because of Rodger's health and internal issues with the Packers rather than because the Bills really "won" the game.

Either way I am happy they did what they did to the Vikings because it opens this game up to actually being a conversation. I figured we'd be 0-4 to start the year when the schedule came out, at least there is some fun being able to talk about these games like we have a shot rather than just assuming another blow out loss.... even though we will likely lose in a blow out loss HAHAHA

 

[Dantés]

Thanks man, and I don't think you sound like an *** at all saying the Packers should win. 10 point favorites, at home, against a team that in the first 2 weeks looked like a high school team lol.

I totally get it and don't disagree with anything you're saying... except the "Bills on the rise" part. While I think the franchise as a while is on an upward trajectory, I am not convinced they are there. I think the "rise" wont begin until 2019, when we get back that $54-ishM In dead cap space, and we can use some of those 9 draft picks we've accumulated by trading away our best players.

We have gotten together a good young core, and we have some good vets, but in all our roster is pretty terrible. These guys play hard for each other, but on paper IMHO they are one of the worst if not the worst roster overall in football. HOWEVER they were pretty similarly bad last year and managed 9-7 and a sneak into the playoffs thanks to some magic by other teams.

This should be a "Get Right" game for the Packers, they're a superior team and frankly good teams should beat bad teams. If the Bills win, I think it says more about the Packers this week than the Bills. I think the Bills are scrappy and they're going to fight hard, but if the Packers lose I think it will be more because of Rodger's health and internal issues with the Packers rather than because the Bills really "won" the game.

Either way I am happy they did what they did to the Vikings because it opens this game up to actually being a conversation. I figured we'd be 0-4 to start the year when the schedule came out, at least there is some fun being able to talk about these games like we have a shot rather than just assuming another blow out loss.... even though we will likely lose in a blow out loss HAHAHA

I had heard that McDermott took over the defensive play calling at halftime of the Chargers game. That would coincide with a big improvement in defensive performance. In the first 6 quarters of the season, the Bills gave up 75 points. In the 6 quarters since, they've allowed 9. Is that transition accurate?

 

[El Guapo]

But he said that in the three combined quarters that House played against Minnesota and Washington, the defense allowed 22 and 28 points respectively.

Well, the real issue is not that House was in the game. The issue was whom was out of the game - Kevin King. Say what you want about House, but whomever is taking his place needs to step up. Apparently the coaches thought that House was the best option and we all know what that got us. Now Breeland is here so who knows.

 

[HardRightEdge]

We'll see. Peter Bukowski posted an interesting stat. I can't really vet him, mind you, so I can't confirm this is absolutely true.

But he said that in the three combined quarters that House played against Minnesota and Washington, the defense allowed 22 and 28 points respectively.

Without him in those games, the defense allowed a total of 10 points (7 to Minnesota and 3 to Washington).

Now clearly all that scoring was not all due to one player. But those results suggest that they've been a stronger defense overall when he's not part of it. And that makes sense-- when healthy, he's barely average. And now we learn that he's been trying to play through a shoulder injury.

Don't get me wrong...House has played badly. But considering he took only 6 defensive snaps against Washington, attributing 28 points to those snaps would be a case of data mining, a correlation without causation. Had Bukowski, whoever he is, checked that snap count he might not have foisted that premise.

 

[Dantés]

Don't get me wrong...House has played badly. But considering he took only 6 defensive snaps against Washington, attributing 28 points to those snaps would be a case of data mining, a correlation without causation. Had Bukowski, whoever he is, checked that snap count he might not have foisted that premise.

Did you read my whole post?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

We'll see. Peter Bukowski posted an interesting stat. I can't really vet him, mind you, so I can't confirm this is absolutely true.

But he said that in the three combined quarters that House played against Minnesota and Washington, the defense allowed 22 and 28 points respectively.

Without him in those games, the defense allowed a total of 10 points (7 to Minnesota and 3 to Washington).

House wasn't even targeted vs. Washington while playing only a handful of snaps. Bukowski is wrong making him the scapegoat for that loss.

If the Packers Defense can limit Shady, that puts a lot of pressure on a rookie QB to come into one of the hardest stadiums to play in and win it with his arm. That's asking a lot! But I like the match up of his arm versus your secondary... Our WRs just need to actually catch the ball.

The Packers cornerbacks are actually significantly improved over last season although King not being able to play would definitely hurt the unit. Unfortunately the team needs significant improvement at free safety though. I'm confident the defense will be able to control the Bills passing offense though.

 

[Dantés]

House wasn't even targeted vs. Washington while playing only a handful of snaps. Bukowski is wrong making him the scapegoat for that loss.

The Packers cornerbacks are actually significantly improved over last season although King not being able to play would definitely hurt the unit. Unfortunately the team needs significant improvement at free safety though. I'm confident the defense will be able to control the Bills passing offense though.

Am I crazy, or didn’t he have a really ugly DPI on a target in the end zone against WAS?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Did you read my whole post?

Yes.

 

[El Guapo]

Am I crazy, or didn’t he have a really ugly DPI on a target in the end zone against WAS?

Answer: C - All of the above?!?

 

[Dantés]

Yes.

Ok. I said this: “Now clearly all that scoring was not all due to one player.” But it seems like maybe people missed that based on some of the responses I’m getting.

 

[MR8]

I had heard that McDermott took over the defensive play calling at halftime of the Chargers game. That would coincide with a big improvement in defensive performance. In the first 6 quarters of the season, the Bills gave up 75 points. In the 6 quarters since, they've allowed 9. Is that transition accurate?

Yes McDermott took over play calling in week 2 after the half, but Leslie Frazier was back calling plays for the Vikings Game. The big change that was noticeable was in the 2nd half of the Chargers game we were throwing out a TON of blitzes and pressures, which we had not been doing in preseason, in week 1, or in the first half of week 2. Going into the Vikings game there were a lot more blitz packages and odd pressures as well.

I think the major adjustment that can be gleaned from McDermott stepping in, si that he wants to force more pressure, even if it means sending extra guys at the QB. Frazier had gotten away from that, and in 2017 he was not big on sending additional pressures either. He prefers his front 4 to get the pressure on their own, but it hasn't been working so they made an adjustment.

That's also probably part of why it was successful against the Vikings, there wasn't a lot of film from us approaching the defense like that. GB will have film on it now to make adjustments.

 

[MR8]

So whats the overall outlook for Jamaal Williams versus Aaron Jones? Which guy is your actual lead back?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Am I crazy, or didn’t he have a really ugly DPI on a target in the end zone against WAS?

Yes, he had a DPI that was a bad look.

 

[PackAttack12]

Aaron Rodgers will practice in a limited fashion today.

Great news.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Ok. I said this: “Now clearly all that scoring was not all due to one player.” But it seems like maybe people missed that based on some of the responses I’m getting.

Now, did you read my post? I agreed with that point in saying, "Don't get me wrong, House has played badly." It's Bukowski that the Captain and I disagree with.

You are correct in observing that House's interference was a bad look. It was 3rd. and 2 at the Packer 9 yard line. If he makes a play on the ball and not the receiver then Washington likely kicks the field goal. Tagging House for 4 points is fair. Correlating his presence on the field with 28 point was an exercise, to repeat, in shallow data mining, a correlation without causation.

I thought the 28 point false correlation in the Redskins game was sufficient to put Bukowski's thesis to bed. The 22 points Bukowski correlates to the quarters House played in the Vikes game must be confined to the 4th. quarter where they in fact scored 22 points. Since it's not a golf day, and there are only 3 scoring drives on 20 plays to look at including the 2 point coversion, I'll go ahead and do that from the game replay out of curiosity.

First possession, 9 plays, 71 yards, 7 points

2nd. play: House was targetted with Thielen for a 4 yards short of the first down.

Second possession, 2 plays, 75 yards, 7 points

Diggs beat House on the 75 yard TD

Third possession, 8 plays, 75 yards, 8 points

House was not on the field.

This was, of course, the drive featuring the infamous Matthews roughing call / Alexander pick that would have sealed the game. The touchdown to Thielen on this drive was the other infamous play where both Brice and Alexander had a hot at making a play on that ball, but they both took their eyes off it and stopped short as they saw each other about to collide.

House didn't play in the Bears game.

In conclusion, we could reasonably tag House for 11 points on 30 snaps plus the PI call. That's not good. But it does not account for the other 39 points scored in quarters where House was on the field or the points scored when he wasn't. The notion that House will no longer be playing is some kind of cure to what ails is a very incomplete picture.

I'm a little reluctant to make the following point given recent contentiousness, but since you insisted on pressing the point, I'll plow right ahead.

You said, "I can't really vet [Bukowski], mind you, so I can't confirm this is absolutely true." It was partially vetted initially by myself and the Captain. Now it is, I think, fully vetted. Are we OK now?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So whats the overall outlook for Jamaal Williams versus Aaron Jones? Which guy is your actual lead back?

Both. Call them "Thunder and Lightening" if you will

They will both get carries and each offer a different running style.