Just to be clear, I was quoting Dougherty's article. The last paragraph of my post is paraphrasing the article. As for "paying as you go" perhaps he was comparing Thompson's MO to the rest of the league, I don't know. But he's right the Packers have never experienced cap hell under Thompson, save his first season when Wahle and Rivera departed and I don't blame him for either. I agree about the importance of cap carryover: I can just imagine when Thompson first learned it was in place it must have hit him like his fondest memory of Christmas morning times ten.
BTW, I believe the quote you were looking for is, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money" by Everett Dirksen. He was quite the character who represented Illinois in the House and Senate for 36 years.
Just to be clear, I know you were quoting Dougherty's article. He is mistaken in 3 key respects, as already noted. First, to belabor the point, there are more players of consequence than those listed for 2017. You could see that yourself in the link I provided. Second, belaboring once again, history shows league cap increases get sucked up in the ratcheting of the salary scale. Third, the "pay as you go" observation does not bear up under the facts; let's explore that further.
The 2017 cap commitments in the link I provided illustrates that "pay as you go" is not currently the case. Thompson may have paid as he went at one point, but that started to shift after 2010 beginning with the Hawk contract. Now the Packers' cap commitments for 2017 rank 10th. in league, as I previously noted, making Thompson less of a pay-as-you-go guy than your average GM at this juncture.
If one needs a clue as to why Hawk was on the field past his sell-by date in 2013 and the 1st half of 2014 (if not 2012), one need look no further than his dead cap numbers in those years. We could say the same about Jones. Change came about in a disorderly process past the pain threshold, and you can attribute that in large part to dead cap.
Thompson has avoided cap hell in recent years not because he pays as he goes. It's because none of his big ticket players with large mounds of dead cap have declined, either by injury or indifferent play. Medium ticket players like Hawk and Jones are the exceptions. He was fortunate Raji turned down the $8 mil per year deal before that dreadful 2013 season and the 2014 IR season. There's no guarantee that happy circumstance will persist.
The only long term deal Thompson has signed over the last few years that approximates pay as you go is the Aaron Rodgers contract that is relatively flat from year 2 to its conclusion, as I already noted. The others have been in line with typical NFL practice...defer cap via bonuses, primarily the signing bonuses.
Of the 26 or so 2015 starters (not counting current injury subs) and key rotational players, 11 are under contract for 2017. Adams, Randall, Linsley and Dix will still be cheap players under their rookie contacts (assuming none are extended in the interim). The other 7 are as follows, showing the cap hits in the first years of their current contracts vs. 2015 vs. 2017. You will see that Thompson's "pay as go" reputation is a habit of thought that does not coincide with the reality of the last few years.
Rodgers: 2013 = $12.00 mil; 2015 = $18.25 mil; 2017 = $20.3 mil
Matthews: 2013 = $6.71 mil; 2015 = $12.7 mil; 2017 = $15.2 mil
Cobb: 2015 = $5.35 mil; 2017 = $12.75 mil
Shields: 2014 = $5.56 mil; 2015 = $9.06 mil; 2017 = $12.13 mil
Nelson: 2014 = $5.93 mil; 2015 = $4.60 mil; 2017 = $11.55 mil
Bulaga: 2015 = $3.57 mil; 2017 = $7.85 mil
Burnett: 2013: $3.19 mil; 2015 = $5.13 mil; 2017 = $7.00 mil
Interestingly, what you see among these 11 players is the QB/WR core is intact, a 4-DB contingent is present, and 2/5 of the O-line is present, consistent with the passer rating differential philosophy.
What you also see is an empty front 7 (including all of the current rotational players) except for Matthews, and 3/5 of the O-Line. Throw in a place kicker. That's going to involve a combination of medium-to-heavy spending (Daniels and several others if you want to keep them), some very good drafts, and development of guys already on the roster. And that does not take into account the possibility that any of the above 7 high cap players go into decline.
While those last 2 paragraphs may sound like business as usual, which they are, the starting point is different from what we've seen in the past: heavy cap commitments are already in place for 2017 as a result of abandonment of "pay as you go".
2015 - 2016 represents a window of opportunity with a high risk of closures by 2017, while assuring consistency into 2016 will require some not insignificant spending at the front 7 positions.
And as I said, it was a
paraphrase, not a quote
, with the dollar amounts representing the one-year cost of restricted free agents. On the other hand, it was Dirksen. So we'll call it even on this irrelevancy.
