Pack93z
You retired too? .... Not me. I'm in my prime
Well I expect us to be starting ranked pretty low, but 25th and WAY behind Detroit. Nothing earthshattering he notes in the rankings...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/07/16/mmqb/2.html
Pre-training camp power rankings
How they stack up as teams prepare to return to work
Posted: Monday July 16, 2007 10:45AM; Updated: Monday July 16, 2007 11:31AM
It's time. Eight days until the first full squad (Pittsburgh) reports. Sixty days until opening night (New Orleans-Indianapolis). From the sounds of my Sirius satellite radio -- which somehow found programming every day of my vacation for the NFL channel (how do you do it, Bob Papa?) -- all of you are ready, and have been ready for weeks.
Not much has changed since the draft, though. With a couple of exceptions, there has been little movement in how I thought the teams stacked up since April. Here goes:
1. Indianapolis: If the Colts are to win the title again, and I think they enter the season with a good chance to go back-to-back, they may need Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Ron Meeks to have the best coaching years of their career. Gone: starting corners Nick Harper and Jason David, former starting safety Mike Doss, starting weakside linebacker and 2006 leading tackler CatoJune and in-the-rotation defensive lineman Montae Reagor. Interesting schedule. Indy could easily start 5-0 (New Orleans, at Tennessee, at Houston, Denver, Tampa Bay) and struggle after the Week 6 bye. How about this punching-bag four-pack: at Jacksonville, at Carolina, New England, at San Diego -- in the span of 21 days. The Colts will have to outscore teams all year, and I believe they will.
2. New England: Maybe the interior run defense is better than it played at Indy in the second half. It had better be Sept. 16 when LaDainian Tomlinson and a very good offensive line come east to Foxboro. Two years ago, LT went for 134 yard in 25 carries in a 41-17 Charger rout of the Pats in New England. I like the Patriots now because you can't overstate the importance of this offseason's best free-agent haul .. maybe ever, particularly when it comes to the receiver corps. Tom Brady finally can outscore people.
3. San Diego: Best depth, 1 to 53 on the roster, in the NFL. And maybe, if Philip Rivers can play in the Manning-Brady league, this will be the Chargers' year. Any of the first three teams on this list can win the Super Bowl, which should surprise no one.
4. New Orleans: I'm counting on Reggie Bush being more versatile and just plain better. It's ridiculous that he rushed for a fullback-like 3.6 yards per carry last year. He'll be at least a yard better because he knows the best carries are sometime the zero-yard gains, which are better than the seven-yard losses. He's already learned that -- in December, Bush averaged 5.1 yards per rush. The Saints scored 30 or more points six times in November and December last year. I expect 10 of those days this year.
5. Chicago: The Bears should win homefield advantage in the NFC again because of their weak division, but two things scare me about Chicago: RexGrossman at quarterback and LanceBriggs' potential holdout. I've had enough of the e-mails defending Grossman. Those don't mean anything, Bearaholics. The way a QB plays matters, and Grossman has to be 25 percent better for this team to win a Super Bowl. Moreover, Brian Urlacher won't be Urlacher without Briggs, who makes the Chicago defense so versatile because he's an athlete and hitter on par with Urlacher.
6. Denver: There is no young player more important to a playoff contender than Jay Cutler. Mike Shanahan wants badly to throw downfield, a la Elway, and Cutler's accuracy will determine if he can do it or not. The secondary is a worry. I think that the loss of the late Darrent Williams is a bigger blow in a football sense than the addition of Dre Bly. Look for first-rounder Jarvis Moss to provide the kind of youthful defensive-line depth Denver needs with its veteran group.
7. Baltimore: We were all so quick to write off the Ravens. Last year, in a tougher division than Indy's, Baltimore compiled a better record (13-3 to 12-4) than the Colts, forcing Indianapolis to travel to Baltimore for their divisional playoff game and forcing Indy to play in the wild-card round. Maybe this year the most underrated player in football -- defensive tackle Kelly Gregg -- can finally get some of the credit he deserves.
8. Philadelphia: The equation here is very, very simple. If DonovanMcNabb plays 16 games, the Eagles are factors in the playoffs. If he gets hurt in November again, Andy Reid plays A.J. Feeley while starting to groom the kid, Kevin Kolb, for opening day 2008.
9. Seattle: Seattle was outscored last year. Isn't that shocking? It is to me. I expect the Seahawks to win 11 games, win the NFC West, and win at least one playoff game because they have their offensive health back.
10. St. Louis: My first surprise. It's risky putting first-rounder Adam Carriker at nose tackle (Scott Linehan tells me he weighs 312 and the Rams are convinced he can hold up, though I'm not). But I like the bookend defensive-end combination of Leonard Little and James Hall (who combined for 18 sacks in 23 games played last year), with La'RoiGlover alongside Carriker. You know the Rams will score. They always do.
11. New York Jets: The AFC East will be the best division in football this year, and it's going to be very tough for New York to go 10-6 again. Two impact players on defense in the draft -- cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebacker David Harris -- will help. Revis may not win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but I think he'll be the most impactful first-year defensive player in the league, even if he doesn't start from day one.
12. Pittsburgh: New coach Mike Tomlin won't be Mr. Popular with his players; he's scheduled 15 two-a-day practices, which I'm guessing is the most of any team in the league. But you know what I like? Tomlin doesn't care. The players have to adjust to him, not the other way around. The key here will be the resurgence of Ben Roethlisberger and Tomlin's ability to mold his 4-3 thinking on defense with ****LeBeau's 3-4, zone-blitzing scheme. The 3-4 and the zone blitz have never been in Tomlin's defensive package. We'll see how seamless he can make the transition to them.
13. Detroit: Some year I'll pick the Lions to do something good and actually be right about the prediction. This is the year they make a quantum leap, I believe, because the defense will adjust to Rod Marinelli and new coordinator Joe Barry and play well. I like a second year in the Mike Martz offense. If you let Jon Kitna slide past the fourth round in your Fantasy Draft, you're absolutely crazy. Keep one name in mind on defense: Ikaika Alama-Francis, who, at 6-5 and 280 pounds, will get the chance to be the kind of interior pass-rush presence Marinelli needs to make his defense work.
14. Dallas: The Cowboys, post-Parcells, seem like they've just used their Get Out Of Jail Free Card. Bill's structure and rules are gone with let-'em-play Wade Phillips in charge. Be careful what you wish for. The Cowboys are a team on the precipice. They could dominate if TonyRomo is a B-plus quarterback, and they could be .500 if he stumbles. I'm betting it's somewhere between.
15. Tennessee:VinceYoung's no mirage, but he's going to have to outscore a lot of teams for Tennessee to be a playoff crew this year. The Titans need defensive help for Kyle Vanden Bosch and Keith Bulluck. Nick Harper helps at a corner, but he's in essence a trade for Pacman Jones -- and not an upgrade, even though Harper's good.
16. Carolina: When we last left the Panthers, Jake Delhomme was getting the bum treatment from Carolina fans. It's up to new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson to salvage Delhomme and the offense, and don't look for Davidson to follow his track record and remain a ground-hugging guy. When you've got SteveSmith on your team, you'd be a fool to run it 58 percent of the time.
17. Cincinnati: Mediocre across the board last year -- 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 6-6 in the conference. What's changed? Sam Adams and Leon Hall. In other words, very little. That's why I put the Bengals smack dab in the middle of the pack.
18. Jacksonville: If I had any faith in the Jags' quarterback situation -- and how can I, really? -- I'd have them 10 or 11. This is still a team with an explosive running game and the ability to play shutdown defense with its underrated front. I could see them anywhere between 7-9 and 10-6.
19. Miami: "We picked Ted [GinnJr.] because we're so close on defense, and he could make the difference in a few games with his playmaking ability,'' Cam Cameron told me this spring. If Brady Quinn turns out to be very good, the Ginn pick is a dud, almost no matter how good he is. If Quinn turns out to be Tim Couch, Ginn could look like Gale Sayers.
20. Atlanta: A retooling year, but they've got the right guy to retool. BobbyPetrino is a really good coach, a tough and smart football guy who I believe won't let the Michael Vick circus overwhelm his team.
21. New York Giants: I admire the loyalty John Mara showed by keeping his late dad's coach, Tom Coughlin. But loyalty, in this case, will probably only set the Giants back a year. I don't buy that the subtraction of Tiki Barber will take away a nettlesome critic of Coughlin and make the locker room all happy and united again. I still see a team with not everyone pulling in the same direction.
22. San Francisco: My biggest problem with the 49ers moving up the NFL ladder in 2007: They badly needed receivers, and the best they could do was perennially disappointing Ashley Lelie and perennially injured Darrell Jackson. Alex Smith had better form the best QB-to-tight-end chemistry in the league with Vernon Davis.
23. Buffalo: Even with a worrisome run defense, the Bills are coming off a season in which they allowed only 19 points a game. If J.P. Losman continues his nice progression (.625 completion percentage last year), Buffalo could go 3-3 in the division and be a spoiler for the playoffs.
24. Washington: I agonized over this one, because I think the Redskins are moving in the right direction. I like young quarterback Jason Campbell. I like JoeGibbs' ability to make owner Dan Snyder a more patient man and I like -- really like -- the addition of tackling machine London Fletcher-Baker. I could see the 'Skins winning 10, but maybe in 2008, not 2007.
25. Green Bay: Something just doesn't smell right here. Maybe it's the loss of the Lambeau mystique; Green Bay was 2-6 at home last year. Maybe it's the schedule; four of the Pack's first five this year come against 2006 playoff teams. Maybe it's the bad chemistry between legend (Brett Favre) and architect (Ted Thompson). Whatever, my gut says the four-game winning streak to end 2006 wasn't a sign of better things to come.
26. Kansas City: Having a great homefield advantage, and a great back to milk that advantage, will help ... but only if the great back, Larry Johnson, is around for 16 games. A Johnson holdout is possible when the Chiefs hit River Falls, and it would disastrous for a team with such a tenuous quarterback situation. Brodie Croyle? Damon Huard? Salts of the earth. But Croyle had better grow up fast and get some extra armor. Chicago and San Diego, both on the road, loom in September.
27. Houston:MattSchaub's going to be a 64-percent passer in an offense that cries out for accuracy, which helps. But the Texans have to find a way to run better than they did last year, and that's why keeping Ahman Green healthy for 14 or 15 games is vital to any chance this team has at .500.
28. Oakland: Even marginal improvement hinges on older guys like Warren Sapp playing at last year's level, and on Lane Kiffin getting JaMarcusRussell ready to play by Halloween because, fascination aside, JoshMcCown is just a two-month seat-warmer.
29. Tampa Bay: It's time for a drink at the Last Chance Saloon for JonGruden. Pretty scary when your best hope for the playoffs is Jeff Garcia. Not to be critical of Garcia, who played well last year, but to be in year six of the Gruden Era and not have a quarterback of the future (at least in the quarterback molder's eyes) in sight is frightening.
30. Arizona: If I had a quarter for every time I heard, "This is the year the Cardinals finally make that leap to respectability,'' I'd be Warren Buffett.
31. Minnesota: If Brad Childress makes an NFL quarterback out of Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota will have a chance to be good. That's a big if, and I don't think the upside is very high there.
32. Cleveland: The Browns are beginning to draft their way out of the abyss. But it's a pretty deep abyss.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/07/16/mmqb/2.html
Pre-training camp power rankings
How they stack up as teams prepare to return to work
Posted: Monday July 16, 2007 10:45AM; Updated: Monday July 16, 2007 11:31AM
It's time. Eight days until the first full squad (Pittsburgh) reports. Sixty days until opening night (New Orleans-Indianapolis). From the sounds of my Sirius satellite radio -- which somehow found programming every day of my vacation for the NFL channel (how do you do it, Bob Papa?) -- all of you are ready, and have been ready for weeks.
Not much has changed since the draft, though. With a couple of exceptions, there has been little movement in how I thought the teams stacked up since April. Here goes:
1. Indianapolis: If the Colts are to win the title again, and I think they enter the season with a good chance to go back-to-back, they may need Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Ron Meeks to have the best coaching years of their career. Gone: starting corners Nick Harper and Jason David, former starting safety Mike Doss, starting weakside linebacker and 2006 leading tackler CatoJune and in-the-rotation defensive lineman Montae Reagor. Interesting schedule. Indy could easily start 5-0 (New Orleans, at Tennessee, at Houston, Denver, Tampa Bay) and struggle after the Week 6 bye. How about this punching-bag four-pack: at Jacksonville, at Carolina, New England, at San Diego -- in the span of 21 days. The Colts will have to outscore teams all year, and I believe they will.
2. New England: Maybe the interior run defense is better than it played at Indy in the second half. It had better be Sept. 16 when LaDainian Tomlinson and a very good offensive line come east to Foxboro. Two years ago, LT went for 134 yard in 25 carries in a 41-17 Charger rout of the Pats in New England. I like the Patriots now because you can't overstate the importance of this offseason's best free-agent haul .. maybe ever, particularly when it comes to the receiver corps. Tom Brady finally can outscore people.
3. San Diego: Best depth, 1 to 53 on the roster, in the NFL. And maybe, if Philip Rivers can play in the Manning-Brady league, this will be the Chargers' year. Any of the first three teams on this list can win the Super Bowl, which should surprise no one.
4. New Orleans: I'm counting on Reggie Bush being more versatile and just plain better. It's ridiculous that he rushed for a fullback-like 3.6 yards per carry last year. He'll be at least a yard better because he knows the best carries are sometime the zero-yard gains, which are better than the seven-yard losses. He's already learned that -- in December, Bush averaged 5.1 yards per rush. The Saints scored 30 or more points six times in November and December last year. I expect 10 of those days this year.
5. Chicago: The Bears should win homefield advantage in the NFC again because of their weak division, but two things scare me about Chicago: RexGrossman at quarterback and LanceBriggs' potential holdout. I've had enough of the e-mails defending Grossman. Those don't mean anything, Bearaholics. The way a QB plays matters, and Grossman has to be 25 percent better for this team to win a Super Bowl. Moreover, Brian Urlacher won't be Urlacher without Briggs, who makes the Chicago defense so versatile because he's an athlete and hitter on par with Urlacher.
6. Denver: There is no young player more important to a playoff contender than Jay Cutler. Mike Shanahan wants badly to throw downfield, a la Elway, and Cutler's accuracy will determine if he can do it or not. The secondary is a worry. I think that the loss of the late Darrent Williams is a bigger blow in a football sense than the addition of Dre Bly. Look for first-rounder Jarvis Moss to provide the kind of youthful defensive-line depth Denver needs with its veteran group.
7. Baltimore: We were all so quick to write off the Ravens. Last year, in a tougher division than Indy's, Baltimore compiled a better record (13-3 to 12-4) than the Colts, forcing Indianapolis to travel to Baltimore for their divisional playoff game and forcing Indy to play in the wild-card round. Maybe this year the most underrated player in football -- defensive tackle Kelly Gregg -- can finally get some of the credit he deserves.
8. Philadelphia: The equation here is very, very simple. If DonovanMcNabb plays 16 games, the Eagles are factors in the playoffs. If he gets hurt in November again, Andy Reid plays A.J. Feeley while starting to groom the kid, Kevin Kolb, for opening day 2008.
9. Seattle: Seattle was outscored last year. Isn't that shocking? It is to me. I expect the Seahawks to win 11 games, win the NFC West, and win at least one playoff game because they have their offensive health back.
10. St. Louis: My first surprise. It's risky putting first-rounder Adam Carriker at nose tackle (Scott Linehan tells me he weighs 312 and the Rams are convinced he can hold up, though I'm not). But I like the bookend defensive-end combination of Leonard Little and James Hall (who combined for 18 sacks in 23 games played last year), with La'RoiGlover alongside Carriker. You know the Rams will score. They always do.
11. New York Jets: The AFC East will be the best division in football this year, and it's going to be very tough for New York to go 10-6 again. Two impact players on defense in the draft -- cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebacker David Harris -- will help. Revis may not win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but I think he'll be the most impactful first-year defensive player in the league, even if he doesn't start from day one.
12. Pittsburgh: New coach Mike Tomlin won't be Mr. Popular with his players; he's scheduled 15 two-a-day practices, which I'm guessing is the most of any team in the league. But you know what I like? Tomlin doesn't care. The players have to adjust to him, not the other way around. The key here will be the resurgence of Ben Roethlisberger and Tomlin's ability to mold his 4-3 thinking on defense with ****LeBeau's 3-4, zone-blitzing scheme. The 3-4 and the zone blitz have never been in Tomlin's defensive package. We'll see how seamless he can make the transition to them.
13. Detroit: Some year I'll pick the Lions to do something good and actually be right about the prediction. This is the year they make a quantum leap, I believe, because the defense will adjust to Rod Marinelli and new coordinator Joe Barry and play well. I like a second year in the Mike Martz offense. If you let Jon Kitna slide past the fourth round in your Fantasy Draft, you're absolutely crazy. Keep one name in mind on defense: Ikaika Alama-Francis, who, at 6-5 and 280 pounds, will get the chance to be the kind of interior pass-rush presence Marinelli needs to make his defense work.
14. Dallas: The Cowboys, post-Parcells, seem like they've just used their Get Out Of Jail Free Card. Bill's structure and rules are gone with let-'em-play Wade Phillips in charge. Be careful what you wish for. The Cowboys are a team on the precipice. They could dominate if TonyRomo is a B-plus quarterback, and they could be .500 if he stumbles. I'm betting it's somewhere between.
15. Tennessee:VinceYoung's no mirage, but he's going to have to outscore a lot of teams for Tennessee to be a playoff crew this year. The Titans need defensive help for Kyle Vanden Bosch and Keith Bulluck. Nick Harper helps at a corner, but he's in essence a trade for Pacman Jones -- and not an upgrade, even though Harper's good.
16. Carolina: When we last left the Panthers, Jake Delhomme was getting the bum treatment from Carolina fans. It's up to new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson to salvage Delhomme and the offense, and don't look for Davidson to follow his track record and remain a ground-hugging guy. When you've got SteveSmith on your team, you'd be a fool to run it 58 percent of the time.
17. Cincinnati: Mediocre across the board last year -- 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 6-6 in the conference. What's changed? Sam Adams and Leon Hall. In other words, very little. That's why I put the Bengals smack dab in the middle of the pack.
18. Jacksonville: If I had any faith in the Jags' quarterback situation -- and how can I, really? -- I'd have them 10 or 11. This is still a team with an explosive running game and the ability to play shutdown defense with its underrated front. I could see them anywhere between 7-9 and 10-6.
19. Miami: "We picked Ted [GinnJr.] because we're so close on defense, and he could make the difference in a few games with his playmaking ability,'' Cam Cameron told me this spring. If Brady Quinn turns out to be very good, the Ginn pick is a dud, almost no matter how good he is. If Quinn turns out to be Tim Couch, Ginn could look like Gale Sayers.
20. Atlanta: A retooling year, but they've got the right guy to retool. BobbyPetrino is a really good coach, a tough and smart football guy who I believe won't let the Michael Vick circus overwhelm his team.
21. New York Giants: I admire the loyalty John Mara showed by keeping his late dad's coach, Tom Coughlin. But loyalty, in this case, will probably only set the Giants back a year. I don't buy that the subtraction of Tiki Barber will take away a nettlesome critic of Coughlin and make the locker room all happy and united again. I still see a team with not everyone pulling in the same direction.
22. San Francisco: My biggest problem with the 49ers moving up the NFL ladder in 2007: They badly needed receivers, and the best they could do was perennially disappointing Ashley Lelie and perennially injured Darrell Jackson. Alex Smith had better form the best QB-to-tight-end chemistry in the league with Vernon Davis.
23. Buffalo: Even with a worrisome run defense, the Bills are coming off a season in which they allowed only 19 points a game. If J.P. Losman continues his nice progression (.625 completion percentage last year), Buffalo could go 3-3 in the division and be a spoiler for the playoffs.
24. Washington: I agonized over this one, because I think the Redskins are moving in the right direction. I like young quarterback Jason Campbell. I like JoeGibbs' ability to make owner Dan Snyder a more patient man and I like -- really like -- the addition of tackling machine London Fletcher-Baker. I could see the 'Skins winning 10, but maybe in 2008, not 2007.
25. Green Bay: Something just doesn't smell right here. Maybe it's the loss of the Lambeau mystique; Green Bay was 2-6 at home last year. Maybe it's the schedule; four of the Pack's first five this year come against 2006 playoff teams. Maybe it's the bad chemistry between legend (Brett Favre) and architect (Ted Thompson). Whatever, my gut says the four-game winning streak to end 2006 wasn't a sign of better things to come.
26. Kansas City: Having a great homefield advantage, and a great back to milk that advantage, will help ... but only if the great back, Larry Johnson, is around for 16 games. A Johnson holdout is possible when the Chiefs hit River Falls, and it would disastrous for a team with such a tenuous quarterback situation. Brodie Croyle? Damon Huard? Salts of the earth. But Croyle had better grow up fast and get some extra armor. Chicago and San Diego, both on the road, loom in September.
27. Houston:MattSchaub's going to be a 64-percent passer in an offense that cries out for accuracy, which helps. But the Texans have to find a way to run better than they did last year, and that's why keeping Ahman Green healthy for 14 or 15 games is vital to any chance this team has at .500.
28. Oakland: Even marginal improvement hinges on older guys like Warren Sapp playing at last year's level, and on Lane Kiffin getting JaMarcusRussell ready to play by Halloween because, fascination aside, JoshMcCown is just a two-month seat-warmer.
29. Tampa Bay: It's time for a drink at the Last Chance Saloon for JonGruden. Pretty scary when your best hope for the playoffs is Jeff Garcia. Not to be critical of Garcia, who played well last year, but to be in year six of the Gruden Era and not have a quarterback of the future (at least in the quarterback molder's eyes) in sight is frightening.
30. Arizona: If I had a quarter for every time I heard, "This is the year the Cardinals finally make that leap to respectability,'' I'd be Warren Buffett.
31. Minnesota: If Brad Childress makes an NFL quarterback out of Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota will have a chance to be good. That's a big if, and I don't think the upside is very high there.
32. Cleveland: The Browns are beginning to draft their way out of the abyss. But it's a pretty deep abyss.
