The realism, and the optimism going forward..

[mkonyn]

He didn't address the purpose of my comment and instead decided to pick one of my points and throw a random stat out there as proof in attempt to say I'm wrong. It was a poor attempt at best. The offense did not play well, their scores were flukes and I'll stand by that. That is not going to work every week, and to pretend like all is well is just plain dumb.

 

[TJV]

You are joking right now, right? Way to pick and choose what you want to hear. Even if this stat were true, all of those things happening in the same game are pure luck. Are you next going to try and argue that the fumble into the endzone recovered by Cobb wasn't pure luck? Or that AR having to run a 20 yard TD untouched is just something that happens every day? Tell me, what are the chances of a 61 yard hail mary? Or lets get even more specific, what are the chances of a face mask extending the game to put a team within 61 yards of the endzone with no time left and then actually make the hail mary pass? In the last 10 years there have only been 4 passes over 60 yards. Your comment is bad and you should feel bad.

You posted

The real proof the offense is poor? Look at our touchdowns. Other than the Adams TD, we have a fumble into the end zone that amazingly had Cobb ready to fall on it, AR 20 yard run, and a 61 yard hail marry. These are all (including Adams' catch) 1 in a 1,000 chance plays.

Here's LarrysCrookedFinger's reply:

The Hail Mary actually has about a 1 in 7 success rate in the NFL. Just sayin'

That is about as innocuous a correction as you'll see. YOU were wrong about the chances of completing a Hail Mary and about Adams' TD catch. Feel bad about it or not.

 

[mongoosev]

That Stark's fumble into end zone was pretty much a metaphor of what this team has become after the bye week: we are so bad right now we are winning with luck on our side.


Anything can happen though. This great comeback might be what this team needs(psychologically) to get back on track like prior to bye week. Whatever it is they better get their act together before the last three games, 4 if you even count cowboys without romo, which we should beat but who knows with this O, if they want to be in the playoffs.

Frankly this is what makes football fun. I would rather a contender that breaks down during the season, like what Green Bay is doing, to regain their competitiveness to win the Bowl than watch a team dominating the division(even league) and winning the bowl .

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Why don't we run quicker plays which hit the receivers in stride? It seems like they all involve short throws to a receiver who hard stopped their momentum and has a guy on them, or plays in which they get further downfield, only to get swallowed up by their more athletic defenders. I've never seen a team whose receivers had this much trouble getting open.

 

[mkonyn]

That is about as innocuous a correction as you'll see. YOU were wrong about the chances of completing a Hail Mary and about Adams' TD catch. Feel bad about it or not.

The inability for you to understand satire is astounding.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

The inability for you to understand satire is astounding.

An interesting observation.

 

[Mondio]

I don't care how we win, as long as we do

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Hail Mary actually has about a 1 in 7 success rate in the NFL. Just sayin'

I don't know if that number is accurate for all Hail Mary plays but it's for sure not true for one from 61 yards away from the opponent's end zone as the Packers one is now the longest winning Hail Mary play in NFL history.

 

[OldSchool101]

The inability for you to understand satire is astounding.

When Ive got to look up the definition of Satire to see if it fits the scenario, the irony has already lost its luster

 

[OldSchool101]

The realism is : we've got serious Offensive issues, which also equates to we have much room for improvement.
The optimism: there is an ideal we have of correcting many of these issues by Playoffs while simultaneously ensuring a playoff birth. IF we are able to move forward and attack the issues of poor....
pass blocking, run blocking, ball security, mental mistakes (fouls which = penalty etc..), personal performance or confidence in attacking the play (Offense in particular) play calling, etc.. Etc...
We have a high propensity to move towards our end goal or our ideal. Then, our "new reality" at that future date is substantially improved.
The game is a constant improvement process and the struggle is to improve our "new" reality and raise our "ideal" beyond that of our competitors.
The Optimism:
I 100% believe we have not played our best football yet this year. I also believe our propensity to improve past the "norm" is high given our personnel.
I'm not confident about this week necessarily, I'm more wanting a Win (or another step in the right direction even if it's a minor improvement) as we continue our process, so if we have a marked improvement by playoffs? We get in with momentum and we create doubt in our competition. This game is all about momentum and timing.

 

[mkonyn]

You posted Here's LarrysCrookedFinger's reply:
That is about as innocuous a correction as you'll see. YOU were wrong about the chances of completing a Hail Mary and about Adams' TD catch. Feel bad about it or not.

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

 

[TJV]

The inability for you to understand satire is astounding.

What's astounding is your overreaction to LarrysCrookedFinger's post. All you had to do was post your "1 in a 1000 chance plays" was an exaggeration.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

This article actually disproves that the probability of a succesful Hail Mary is only 1 to 1000.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

You are joking right now, right? Way to pick and choose what you want to hear. Even if this stat were true, all of those things happening in the same game are pure luck. Are you next going to try and argue that the fumble into the endzone recovered by Cobb wasn't pure luck?

"Pure luck" would be Cobb falling down in the end zone and a fumble randomly rolling right into his arms through no effort of his own. In reality, it took excellent awareness and reaction time along with a precise dive to recover the ball.

Your comment is bad and you should feel bad.

Yeah. Okay.

 

[sschind]

No one is disputing the fact that our offense has struggled for much of this season, including during some of the wins. What gives me hope for the rest of the season however is that it is still basically the same players we had last year when everyone said we had one of the best offenses in the league. And that includes everyone's raves about Adams. If you feel that our offense sucks and its because we just don't have good players then how do you explain last year with the same guys. I don't know why these guys are playing like they are playing but unless we were totally wrong about last years team I have hope that somehow what they had last year can return.

 

[Half Empty]

Injuries? Don't mean IR/inactive-type things, but new or accumulated dings to enough players that the overall performance is affected? OLine? Adams? Lacy? Who knows?

Jordy? When Finley went down in '10, it forced AR to look to other targets, they responded, and the offense became much more diverse. This year, not so much. Perhaps Cobb is (significantly) less effective without a true #1?

Boykin syndrome? (Maybe Lacy?) Just that completely mystical dropoff from "boy, that guy will keep that position filled for years to come" to "I wonder where _____ is now".

Guys like Bak and Linsley, who adequately plugged significant holes and played well, but "for a rookie/young 4th/5th round draft choice"?

Coaching? Not adjusting as well as could be to the above?

Might be others, but I think any/all/mix of these are possible - certainly for discussion.

 

[PackerDNA]

Injuries? Don't mean IR/inactive-type things, but new or accumulated dings to enough players that the overall performance is affected? OLine? Adams? Lacy? Who knows?

Jordy? When Finley went down in '10, it forced AR to look to other targets, they responded, and the offense became much more diverse. This year, not so much. Perhaps Cobb is (significantly) less effective without a true #1?

Boykin syndrome? (Maybe Lacy?) Just that completely mystical dropoff from "boy, that guy will keep that position filled for years to come" to "I wonder where _____ is now".

Guys like Bak and Linsley, who adequately plugged significant holes and played well, but "for a rookie/young 4th/5th round draft choice"?

Coaching? Not adjusting as well as could be to the above?

Might be others, but I think any/all/mix of these are possible - certainly for discussion.

Bingo.

 

[Sky King]

Very interesting read by Pete Dougherty of the GBPG. I could not agree more regarding what is ailing the offense, especially the current coaching assignments. It's not working and the solution may be a no-win for McCarthy both personally and professionally. McCarthy meant well, anyway.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...06/packers-offense-still-needs-help/76833196/

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

The realism is : we've got serious Offensive issues, which also equates to we have much room for improvement.
The optimism: there is an ideal we have of correcting many of these issues by Playoffs while simultaneously ensuring a playoff birth. IF we are able to move forward and attack the issues of poor....
pass blocking, run blocking, ball security, mental mistakes (fouls which = penalty etc..), personal performance or confidence in attacking the play (Offense in particular) play calling, etc.. Etc...
We have a high propensity to move towards our end goal or our ideal. Then, our "new reality" at that future date is substantially improved.
The game is a constant improvement process and the struggle is to improve our "new" reality and raise our "ideal" beyond that of our competitors.
The Optimism:
I 100% believe we have not played our best football yet this year. I also believe our propensity to improve past the "norm" is high given our personnel.
I'm not confident about this week necessarily, I'm more wanting a Win (or another step in the right direction even if it's a minor improvement) as we continue our process, so if we have a marked improvement by playoffs? We get in with momentum and we create doubt in our competition. This game is all about momentum and timing.

I think this is about where I stand right now.

Before anyone labels me too much of a sunshine pumper or a pipe dreamer, nobody is or should put the problems on ignore at this point.

Would I be shocked if by next week, the same old same old we've been seeing is still out there on the field and nothing's changed, offense still looking like crap etc? Absolutely not.

But is it still possible that this MoTown miracle in challenging our players, was able to inspire the kind of football we need to succeed in the playoffs with? Absolutely yes.

Perhaps the thing I've focused a lot on in these last few days coming from that game, was not so much the hail mary play, but more so the Peppers sack-fumble play. Maybe because how many times in these last 4 or so years has our team not had Rodgers and the offense make all the spark plays? I mean yeah Rodgers scored on a TD run and threw the game-winning pass, but it seemed like it was more so Peppers's sack-fumble play that ultimately sparked the rest and seemed to be the game-turning play that got us back in it. I guess to me, that just felt like one of those Doug Evans kind of moments when we knew we were going to have to find an answer outside of a struggling offense to do something and that was it.

At the end of the day, that may change nothing in our ... well maybe short playoff campaign, but if we ever did get healthy and go on the big run, I'd say that moment in this game will be looked back on as the play that got it started.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Perhaps the thing I've focused a lot on in these last few days coming from that game, was not so much the hail mary play, but more so the Peppers sack-fumble play. Maybe because how many times in these last 4 or so years has our team not had Rodgers and the offense make all the spark plays?

The defense has played excellent for most parts of the season and has provided several spark plays. IMO the Packers actually need more such contributions from the offense.

 

[Tacklynn]

If there were a Packers Problematic Predicament Pie Chart,

what % of the problems are coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes,
what % are just lack of exceptional talent to draw in,
what % is psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude,
what % is injuries
what % random misfortune and bad luck?

Granted, one category can affect the next. And I may have omitted an important category or two that should be included.

Here's my pie:

25% coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes,
20% lack of exceptional talent to draw on
20% psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude--on the part of a few, but it affects the team
30% injuries
5% random misfortune and bad luck--though the luck was exceptional with the hail mary.

What's your pie chart? Thank you.

 

[sschind]

If there were a Packers Problematic Predicament Pie Chart,

what % of the problems are coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes,
what % are just lack of exceptional talent to draw in,
what % is psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude,
what % is injuries
what % random misfortune and bad luck?

Granted, one category can affect the next. And I may have omitted an important category or two that should be included.

Here's my pie:

25% coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes,
20% lack of exceptional talent to draw on
20% psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude--on the part of a few, but it affects the team
30% injuries
5% random misfortune and bad luck--though the luck was exceptional with the hail mary.

What's your pie chart? Thank you.

I would add players not making plays. Maybe you would include that in the psychological and if so it needs to be higher. I think it far more important than the play calling on offense, maybe not so much on defense but I honestly don' think its our defense that has been the problem through our losses. As I said in another post people complain about the play calling but go on and on about the number dropped passes, wrong routes, poorly thrown balls and missed tackles. Take care of the mistakes (dropped passes, wrong routes, poorly thrown balls, missed tackles) and all of a sudden more plays work, we won a few more games and suddenly the play calling isn't so bad.

 

[Un4GivN]

If there were a Packers Problematic Predicament Pie Chart,

what % of the problems are coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes,
what % are just lack of exceptional talent to draw in,
what % is psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude,
what % is injuries
what % random misfortune and bad luck?

Granted, one category can affect the next. And I may have omitted an important category or two that should be included.

Here's my pie:

25% coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes,
20% lack of exceptional talent to draw on
20% psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude--on the part of a few, but it affects the team
30% injuries
5% random misfortune and bad luck--though the luck was exceptional with the hail mary.

What's your pie chart? Thank you.

Here's my pie:

40% coaching as in play calling and defensive schemes More so preparation, this team comes out as sluggish as any i have ever seen. Also I have kind of had enough with MM coddling of A-Rod. When he makes a mistake tell him how it is. Don't just look at him with puppy eyes like you did something wrong. COACH.
10% lack of exceptional talent to draw on - Other teams are doing more with less - coach them up.
40% psychological/morale breakdown/lazy attitude. I'd like to add lack of leadership to this.
10% injuries - Injuries happen every year. Unless it's A-Rod it shouldn't be used as an excuse.
0% random misfortune and bad luck - If you win by 20, you can have all the bad luck in the world and still win. Bad luck is usually meant for teams that didn't really deserve to win in the first place.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm honestly not trying to toot my own horn because I have as many wrong predictions as I do correct ones..
With that being said, I have been harping much of the year about getting the RBs more involved in our short passing game. We have had much success in that area IMO. These plays are high probability (short yardage) and they are generally a quick option under a heavy pass rush, so theses passes have a dual effect of also protecting Aaron.
This isn't meant to be "the answer" to all our problems but it does utilize the strength of our RBs in letting them "run downfield". Everyone knows Lacy is dangerous at the second level.. Then Let's get him there more often! Everyone knows if you give Starks a couple of yards and a blocker he is formidable at attacking downfield
Utilizing our strengths and mitigating damage from our weekness is part of the play calling also and has a high degree of swinging the momentum pendulum in the right direction.
I guess what I'm trying to say is we too often try to force the running game rather than taking what the opponent is giving us. I am in agreement with MM in that we are underutilizing the rushing attack, but we have 4 quarters do get it done and sometimes throwing the ball on 1st down is a better option (especially when we are only getting 0-2 yards so often anyway. Sometimes ramping the running game as the game goes on is a better option than running 12 of the 1st 20 plays of game etc... If a novice fan like me can see this, I'm quite sure an opposing DC is all over it.

 

[Packerlifer]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/po...ackers-need-to-do-better-at-the-little-things