The Jordan Love Era Begins

[GleefulGary]

While I whole heartedly agree with your logic there...it doesn't work in all cases. 99 billion served at McDonald's certainly doesn't mean its good food

But qb wins isn't a useless stat. Its similar to pitcher wins in baseball. Yes Aaron Rodgers went 6 and 10 in his first year as a starter. And qb wins didnt mean sht cuz you could see that the qb did enough to win but the rest of the team didnt. Over a larger sample size, what happened? Rodgers qb win/loss record improved dramatically which coincided with him becoming one of the greatest to ever play the game

It’s largely useless. Over time, as a volume stat, it can show more value, but in general, meh.

Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert could all be examples of how QB wins can understate and overrate a QB.

The Eagles won more than the Chargers. Is any logical person taking Jalen Hurts over Herbert? I sure wouldn’t. Stafford was viewed as a loser before he went to the Rams. He was the same QB there as he was in Detroit but with a better coach and talent around him, but now people view him as an elite QB who can win games. He was always that guy, just stuck on a crap team. Even Jared Goff! Couldn’t do crap under Fisher, solid with McVay, been good with Detroit, but is anybody taking him over Herbert? I doubt it.

 

[Half Empty]

It’s largely useless. Over time, as a volume stat, it can show more value, but in general, meh.

Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert could all be examples of how QB wins can understate and overrate a QB.

The Eagles won more than the Chargers. Is any logical person taking Jalen Hurts over Herbert? I sure wouldn’t. Stafford was viewed as a loser before he went to the Rams. He was the same QB there as he was in Detroit but with a better coach and talent around him, but now people view him as an elite QB who can win games. He was always that guy, just stuck on a crap team. Even Jared Goff! Couldn’t do crap under Fisher, solid with McVay, been good with Detroit, but is anybody taking him over Herbert? I doubt it.

Probably why several folks have said

Definitely don't think it's a useless stat, it just doesn't exist in a vaccuum.

 

[thequick12]

It’s largely useless. Over time, as a volume stat, it can show more value, but in general, meh.

Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert could all be examples of how QB wins can understate and overrate a QB.

The Eagles won more than the Chargers. Is any logical person taking Jalen Hurts over Herbert? I sure wouldn’t. Stafford was viewed as a loser before he went to the Rams. He was the same QB there as he was in Detroit but with a better coach and talent around him, but now people view him as an elite QB who can win games. He was always that guy, just stuck on a crap team. Even Jared Goff! Couldn’t do crap under Fisher, solid with McVay, been good with Detroit, but is anybody taking him over Herbert? I doubt it.

Herbert will end up with more wins in the long run I'll bet

Stafford was considered to be an above average qb while in Detroit

 

[rmontro]

What about Brady versus Rodgers? Rodgers had better stats, but was he the better quarterback? I used to think so, but I'm not so sure anymore. I think Brady was more clutch, give him the ball on one last drive in a big game. He seemed to have some sort of intangible that made him a great leader, and made guys want to play for him. And I know he had the benefit of Belichick's defenses, but it's hard to fault a guy with seven rings. I mean, that's so insane, it's like it's not even possible.

 

[milani]

Herbert will end up with more wins in the long run I'll bet

Stafford was considered to be an above average qb while in Detroit

With the team and coaches he had Average Looks Grrrrreat!

 

[PikeBadger]

Starr vs Unitas anyone?

 

[rmontro]

Starr vs Unitas anyone?

Starr

 

[gopkrs]

Starr was much better than he ever got credit for. And for The Pack, I would not have wanted anyone else.

 

[shockerx]

Well now that its been over a week, I thought about J Love and where I hope he can improve in 24. The eye test for me was two things. First in Playoff football...from the Bears game forward i would of liked to see Love use his feet more to get out of jams. He is very athletic and could be a key chain mover in critical moments. Look at early Rodgers he extended drives many times when you had to have it. Another was Purdy killing the Lions late with scampers. I think year two of Love we will see more of this. Second Love's deep ball, overall it looks to me he has to go a tick sooner and or take a little bit of rainbow out of it. to many times guys had to slow up or jump ball the catch. I cant even think of one in stride catch deep for a TD....maybe wrong there. I think year two with the WR this works better too.

 

[thequick12]

I liked this...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

People forget tom clements is still in GB. Interesting that Love improved a ton, is same time Tom was there

I think Tom gets him better

Looks like Tom Clements will be around for at least another season. Definitely great news for Love and the Packers!

Sean Manion is also joining the Packers coaching staff. Hopefully, he soaks up everything Clements has and stays in GB for awhile.

https://atozsports.com/green-bay/tom-clements-packers-qb-coach-2024/

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Has this crossed anyone's mind, besides mine? So Jordan had what I would call a much better than expected 1st year as a starter. I expect his experience as a starter and a whole offseason to study and improve, is going to make him even better in year 2. On the flipside, I would expect opposing DC's to have a lot of game film on Jordan and might be able to figure out better ways to defend him. I guess this is where MLF comes in and makes sure that Jordan isn't predictable and is fixing any mistakes that DC's might prey on.

Fingers crossed that 2023 was Jordan's least productive season and he just keeps getting better, while DC's scratch their heads, trying to figure out how to defend against him.

 

[gopkrs]

Has this crossed anyone's mind, besides mine? So Jordan had what I would call a much better than expected 1st year as a starter. I expect his experience as a starter and a whole offseason to study and improve, is going to make him even better in year 2. On the flipside, I would expect opposing DC's to have a lot of game film on Jordan and might be able to figure out better ways to defend him. I guess this is where MLF comes in and makes sure that Jordan isn't predictable and is fixing any mistakes that DC's might prey on.

Fingers crossed that 2023 was Jordan's least productive season and he just keeps getting better, while DC's scratch their heads, trying to figure out how to defend against him.

I agree that that is where MLF comes in. Love is capable of throwing the ball accurately and I expect him to do just that. And maybe learn to run a bit more. $50M per year? Only in today's world imho. I hope he never misses an easy throw again like the one he did to A. Jones in the 4th quarter. We're riding his coattails now. I do think we need to give him help on the O line this off season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree that that is where MLF comes in. Love is capable of throwing the ball accurately and I expect him to do just that. And maybe learn to run a bit more. $50M per year? Only in today's world imho. I hope he never misses an easy throw again like the one he did to A. Jones in the 4th quarter. We're riding his coattails now. I do think we need to give him help on the O line this off season.

My thoughts exactly. Too many times where Jordan could have tucked the ball and picked up some yardage, instead of throwing a bad pass or throwing it away.

The Packers are no doubt in a "tough spot" when it comes to Jordans contract. No doubt they want to keep him and pay him what he is worth, but after just 1 year, committing that kind of money ($50M/year) and guarantees, is just "NFL lunacy" at a high level.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't see it too tough...you have to pay him and essentially you have to hook your fiscal wagon to it for two years minimum. Pay the man $50M a year on a three year deal you guarantee only $115M of it or 76% of it which is a similar percentage to many....as you add years you lower that guaranteed amount. Personally I predict a four year extension (which makes it essentially like a five year and about 66% of it guaranteed).

So around $210M on the next four years...around $140M guaranteed...which would make it impossible to part until after 2025 season, and even then it'd be a costly walk away but a small savings.

 

[gopkrs]

I don't see it too tough...you have to pay him and essentially you have to hook your fiscal wagon to it for two years minimum. Pay the man $50M a year on a three year deal you guarantee only $115M of it or 76% of it which is a similar percentage to many....as you add years you lower that guaranteed amount. Personally I predict a four year extension (which makes it essentially like a five year and about 66% of it guaranteed).

So around $210M on the next four years...around $140M guaranteed...which would make it impossible to part until after 2025 season, and even then it'd be a costly walk away but a small savings.

No, not so hard. Luckily it's just play money and if it doesn't work out ala Daniel Jones; we just look for another QB like the Giants are. No problem. I've got confidence in Love and I know we have to do it some way. Just that nothing is certain. Especially after only 1 year of starting and less than half a year of playing very well.

 

[milani]

Has this crossed anyone's mind, besides mine? So Jordan had what I would call a much better than expected 1st year as a starter. I expect his experience as a starter and a whole offseason to study and improve, is going to make him even better in year 2. On the flipside, I would expect opposing DC's to have a lot of game film on Jordan and might be able to figure out better ways to defend him. I guess this is where MLF comes in and makes sure that Jordan isn't predictable and is fixing any mistakes that DC's might prey on.

Fingers crossed that 2023 was Jordan's least productive season and he just keeps getting better, while DC's scratch their heads, trying to figure out how to defend against him.

A lot of other 1st and 2nd year players on offense getting equivocally improved will alleviate his task and continue to make it difficult for opposing Ds.

 

[PackerDNA]

Whatever contract he gets, it's going to look like a bargain two or three years from now.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Whatever contract he gets, it's going to look like a bargain two or three years from now.

Obviously, as a Packer fan, I hope that is the case. All I am saying is that this isn't a contract that has a ton of playing time to support the numbers. It's more of a leap of faith, that the Jordan Love that played well in the last half of the season, is the future. Not the Jordan Love we saw against teams like the Raiders, Broncos, Saints and Lions (Game 1).

 

[Poppa San]

Obviously, as a Packer fan, I hope that is the case. All I am saying is that this isn't a contract that has a ton of playing time to support the numbers. It's more of a leap of faith, that the Jordan Love that played well in the last half of the season, is the future. Not the Jordan Love we saw against teams like the Raiders, Broncos, Saints and Lions (Game 1).

Wasn't AR12's first extension also a leap of faith in that he was given 5 years during 2008?

 

[tynimiller]

Wasn't AR12's first extension also a leap of faith in that he was given 5 years during 2008?

Absolutely. Personally I really think we have a four year extension (on top of 2024) coming. Provides the most flexibility to use 2024 as a little bit of a guaranteed money shave off depending on what all other fiscal shuffling does.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wasn't AR12's first extension also a leap of faith in that he was given 5 years during 2008?

Yup. It was a six-year, $65 million extension that made him the NFL’s fourth-highest paid quarterback. I believe it carried a $20M guarantee. So in todays numbers, probably not all that much different than what the Packers face with Love.

I am not questioning if the Packers should or shouldn't do it, I think they pretty much have to. What I was pointing out was the ridiculous nature of the NFL and contract guarantees. In the case of Love and yes, Rodgers back in 2008, laying this kind of money out, on an unsure thing. I understand that a guy can get injured and never play again, but the frequency and odds of that happening? Also, are they insuring if that happens, that he will have enough money to not have to work again? Seems like they are now insuring that he, his family and 20 others are set for a life of luxury if he stops playing football, injured or not.

EDIT: Had to add, that Rodgers contract in 2008 was done on Halloween. Sort of fitting, based on what happened in his final years in Green Bay.

 

[rmontro]

I'm mostly concerned that we'll be paying Love so much we won't be able to fill in the other pieces needed to compete at the top level. Basically the same situation we were in with Rodgers. I'm more worried about that, than the prospect that Love won't be any good.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm mostly concerned that we'll be paying Love so much we won't be able to fill in the other pieces needed to compete at the top level. Basically the same situation we were in with Rodgers. I'm more worried about that, than the prospect that Love won't be any good.

I can think of much worse problems. Let's face it, the teams that have an above average QB, are typically paying a lot more for him and also, hopefully winning more games than they are losing. I can think of an exception and that is the 49'ers with Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. However, if he continues to play well, it won't be long before they are paying big bucks for his services too.

The worst problem is paying a guy like Daniel Jones $40M/year and finding out he isn't a very good QB. So I don't mind the Packers paying Love, if he earns it.

If Gute nailed the Jordan Love pick with a late 1st round selection and he ends up with a big contract and earns it, that is the "best problem" that an NFL team can have.

Finally, I have to point out a team like the Bears, they keep throwing high first round picks at QB's, which also is a big rookie salary, and still suck.