Well...maybe. You say the Packers have a more balanced O but lets look at the numbers. The Seahawks most glaring weakness is their rushing game. I don't disagree with you on Alexander - he's a shadow of his former self....or, perhaps, the offensive line is a shadow of its former self. But our pathetic running game earned an average of 101.2 yard/game. Guess what the Packers earned? Oops. 99.8. Sounds like a wash. So the bottom line there is that the Seahawks biggest weakness on offense is in their running game and they're equal the Packers in terms of yard gained.
How did the Seahawks do on rushing defense. Well, they allowed 102.8 yard/game. A little above average in the NFL and almost exactly what the Packers earned/game. What about the Pack? Gee...they allowed 102.9 yard/game. Clearly a wash. So running game wise the teams are evenly matched. As a homer
I'll give the Hawks the edge because, while they give up some yards on the ground, they forced 9 fumbles to the Pack's measly 5.
So let's look at the passing game. The Pack averaged about 20 yard more/game than the Seahawks so that's not totally insignificant..and makes up the entire advantage in offensive production that the Packers have over the Seahawks b/c the running games are a wash. Looking at passing defense, the Seahawks defense allowed an average of 219 yards/game compared to 210 yard/game for the Pack. So that gives the Pack a 10 yard/game advantage. About 1 first down/game. Thats pretty much offset by the 1st down by passing allowed stat where the Seahawks are actually ahead of the Packers.
So on the basis of yards gained you have to give the edge to the Pack . On the other hand, the Seahawks allowed about 10 yard less/game than the Packers did. As a matter of fact, the Seahawks allowed 219 yard/game in passing during the season while the Packers GAINED 270 yard/game. But on the biggest stat the teams are equal: both teams scored the same number oftouchdowns passing: 30.
So, in my rather convoluted analysis, the key to the game is going to come down to:
1. Which passing defense holds up better. Both teams scored the same number of passing TD's and they're roughly equal in passing defense. You have the give Favre the advantage on this but there's a wildcard. The Seahawks were 4th in the NFL in sacks (45) compared to 13th for Green Bay (36). The Hawks are also 4th in the league in interceptions. So, while I'd give the Pack a slight advantage on this it's close. It all depends on whether the Seahawks can avoid allowing big plays.
2. Can either team run the ball? The stats say it'll be a wash but I'll give the slight advantage to the Pack but it's close. Yards/game are the same but the diference is that the Packers scored more TD's running. The upside for the Seahawks...a significant portion of the Packers rushing yards came on big plays. They had 15 plays for 20+ yards and 4 of 40+ yards. If the Seahawks can keep them from breaking big runs then they'll be ok.
Lastly, there's Seattle's achilles heel - special teams. Our kicking game is solid but our coverage has been spotty. Our punter had a tough year...but improved recently...but coveraage was still spotty. If the punter chokes and/or the coverage guys give up a lot of return yards then the Seahawks are in trouble.
My (evolving) prediction: Seahawks 24 (their season average/game) Green Bay 21 (under their season average but above the Seahawks average points/game allowed).