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Safeties

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by KyraReppe5, Feb 19, 2020.

  1. KyraReppe5

    KyraReppe5 "We're going to relentlessly chase perfection."

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    ILB/WR/OT are our biggest needs (pending FA). Let's assume the Packers do not re-sign Bulaga, do not sign any WR/TE and do not sign an ILB..I have seen some mock drafts where Xavier McKinney and Grant Delpit fall to GB. They are clearly the BAP's. Can you justify not getting one of those guys? Obviously if the Packer's favorite WR's and LB's are gone, but would if Justin Jefferson is their favorite WR prospect and Kenneth Murray is their favorite LB prospect, who do you go with? Normally, I would be upset if they went with guys like Delpit and McKinney as safety is not a need position, but those guys are hawks.
     
  2. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    They're one year into a big deal for Amos, who played well, and they spent a first round pick on Savage. There's simply no way they draft a safety in the first round.
     
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  3. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I agree 100%, but to play devil's advocate Gute did just draft Gary when he had both Smiths coming in, Fackrell coming off a **** of a season....granted, OLB is different in that it cycles in and out vastly more in a game than your top two safeties do.
     
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  4. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I think you hit it right there. Safeties are pretty much on the field whereas OLB's you need 3 at least that are good and likely knew Fackrell was leaving in a year. They saw someone they really liked at probably the most important position in a defense these days and took him. I have zero issues with it.

    I don't see anyway they take a safety in the first round this year.
     
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  5. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    That's a solid point. So maybe if they felt that they could run nickel with three safeties instead of three corners? But I would still bet the house that they don't draft a safety in round one.

    I could see them taking a "safety" with more linebacker size who they plan to use at that WILL spot.
     
  6. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Echo these thoughts personally as well.
     
  7. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    To your point, one of the main pros for Savage was that he was good enough that he could play slot corner in a dime defense; that didn't play out his rookie season but there's no reason to think he can't do it next year (he has the skills). If a safety prospect slides (e.g., Delpit falls to 30) then I could certainly see the Packers deciding that he's a guy they want to draft. Another example, and I will continue to harp on this, is the difference a guy like Minkah could have made for the Packers on defense; a great safety can make a huge difference for a defense.

    People always talk about drafting best available player but that's really only true when the best guy is a good deal better than the guys a team needs at a certain position. A safety is a possibility, but only if 4-5 WRs have already been drafted by the Packers' pick and a top-15 safety slides to the Packers.
     
  8. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    While I like discussing scenarios and what ifs...I truly believe that if an arguably top 15 or so guy falls to us at 30....the trade offers coming in may be too good for Gute to triple dip into a position he doesn't "need".
     
  9. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I would say that Savage should stay in his most valuable role as a free safety who has the range to cover up over the top. Not that he can never do other things, but I tend to believe that that's what he was drafted to be.
     
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  10. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    WHO'S mocks???? I gotta see this....
     
  11. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I mean, a really good safety who can cover slot receivers if needed is a pretty valuable role...
     
  12. morango

    morango Cheesehead

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    IMO Defensive line, especially a run-stopping NT, is just as big a need as these three.

    Other than that, I agree with you and most posters that the pack is pretty set at safety but a mid round pick would not surprise me.
     
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  13. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    A safety who can cover like a slot corner is valuable, but it's harder to find players who can play single high than it is to find slot coverage.
     
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  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    With the Packers set at S with Amos and Savage, taking one of those guys requires a projection to the hybrid ILB position. While both these guys look to be strong safety types, they don't have the size for the ILB position as other than pass down rotational players.

    While coverage ability at the the 3-down 3-4 ILB position is prioratized, there are too many tweener downs where that guy has to be able to diagonse and attack the hole, shed blocks, take on RBs with a head of steam.

    Isaah Simmons, the most rounded player at the position in this draft with positional flexibility, won't drop anyhere near #30. He's kind of a beast. Murray has a high read-and-react quotient and is generally mocked higher than #30, but he looks more like a fit for a 4-3 zone-heavy D where he doesn't have to stray far from the line of scrimmage.

    Patrick Queen would be the better option in this role than those safeties you named with better size at about 225 lbs. He's the best coverage ILB in this draft for the combination of zone and man ability. Now, Queen is not an all-tools player like Simmons nor does he have ideal length at 6'1" compared to Simmons' 6'4", though Queen is a better option than Simmons in zone coverages. Regardless, we don't have a top 15 pick to land a guy like Simmons.

    What you would be buying with Queen is all-around coverage ability, safety speed going sideline-to-sideline, blitz ability, and a good fit for Pettine's man coverages. There isn't a lot to see from him in the way of read-react-attack or shed in the available tape. He was protected considerably by his D-line. However, you'd have to keep in mind he was a one year starter and judging from his zone reads in coverage I think you'd be getting a pretty smart player who should turn into a respectable even if not an exceptional run defender. You would need to pair him with a base run defense specialist, preferably a better option than Goodson, but those guys are not expensive. Ragland, to take one example, would be a good option as a pairing.

    Compared to Martinez, whose read-react-attack and ability to shed blocks are all sub-par, you'd get an upgrade in the coverage ability alone.

    There are good reasons you see Queen popping up in some mocks at #30. He's faster than Littleton, a guy in a similar mold, who won't cost the $10 million per year Littleton might command and he'd be a better option compared to Martinez who has been a jack of all trades and master of none regardless of whatever stupid money somebody throws at him.

    I suspect Queen will test very high at the Combine. He may remain in reach because the league values length and he'll get dinged for the 6'1" height if that is in fact how he measures. If he bulks up to 230 and still runs like the wind, that might be a problem.

    I can't say at this stage Queen would be my top pick, especially with all the unkowns, especially who is still on the board at #30, I would definitely put him on the possibilities list, and definitely above those true safeties you mentioned.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2020
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  15. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    I personally feel like all this talk is moot, we are about 7 spots minimum too low to be dreaming about these players. I get it that Gute does make trades, and has so far in every 1st Round; but this time I just don't see us having the draft capital to do so. A team would have to be looking pretty bleak at their options at the time of selection to trade down for peanuts.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I don't see where any of the players mentioned in this thread as possibilities are out of the conversation at #30. 6'1" ILBs without run defense credentials, or storng safety types, whether you project them into the slot or not, typically don't go off the board above #30. That requires a specific need above others and a specific scheme fit.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2020
  17. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    McKinney, I do expect to last until the 2nd Round, but both Queen and Delpit I see going Top 25. But McKinney is more than likely off Gute's board, at least in the 1st Round. If he fell to the 3rd however, I still wouldn't like the pick, but I can understand from a value perspective.
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Delpit does not project to single high safety and that's where the NFL spends first round safety picks.

    I come back to Queen's 6'1" height. This league prizes length at the ILB position, for covering TEs and getting off blocks. White and Bush were exceptions given their run defense tape to go with the other measurables. Queen does not have that tape. He's just not the all-around ILB option teams are inclined to spend a first round pick on. You have to make a projection beyond the tape, which is difficult to do, when it comes to Queens nickel D run defense. It is easier, though not necessarily right, to project speed into coverage ability when the tape doesn't show it. As it stands, Queen is an oversized safety you project to the ILB position beyond the hybrid role. Those guys generally don't go in the first round. It might be possible to land him with a trade down into the 2nd. round.

    That's based on what we know now. The Combine has a way of shuffling the deck.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2020
  19. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Yes, but that's not really the point. The point is that if a safety that can ALSO play single-high is one of the players available, then having Savage on the roster should not be something that prevents that player from being drafted. It's not like when the team drafted Gary and having two better OLBs pretty much kept him off the field; a really good coverage safety shouldn't keep Savage off the field.
     
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  20. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I understand what you're saying, but I disagree. I think you'd be making Savage a lot less valuable that way.
     
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  21. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    How? Savage can play all 4 positions. If we so happened to end up with Delpit or McKinney(however unlikely that'd be) I'd prefer if Savage moved down to Nickel. With Sullivan and Hollman battling for the Dime, that would cement the secondary for the next 5+ years most likely.
     
  22. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Who's the safety that can play single high?

    Delpit can't. I have my doubts that McKinney can.
     
  23. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Delpit is a weird player. He's basically a smaller version (by 15 pounds) of ILB Queen, who people would love for his coverage ability at ILB, and yet Delpit is better in coverage and could help far more against TEs. No, Delpit wouldn't be able to play single-high, but if you want a good safety that can cover TEs very well, you don't get much better than Delpit's potential.

    The guy I think that has the best potential to move into the first-round and be a single-high safety could be Ashtyn Davis. He had a down year last season but in 2018 he was terrific in coverage at the safety position. I don't think the Packers would take him at 30 but if they trade down, and he has a good combine, then he could be an option at the top of the 2nd round.
     
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  24. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Delpit had a really poor 2019 considering his hype. Without knowing if there were injuries, it's very concerning.

    I've heard Davis is good, haven't checked him out.

    I just don't think a safety on Day 1, or early Day 2 is good value considering the other needs we have.
     
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  25. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    You traded up in the first round to take a safety because he can play single high, not slot corner.

    To make that investment and then push him into a role that's a lot less valuable is a stupid use of resources. If they wanted a slot corner, they could have gotten one a lot cheaper.

    The answer here is to find a slot corner-- not to draft a safety that then necessitates moving Savage to that position.
     

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