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RAS Trends

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by Dantés, Apr 16, 2021.

  1. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    This gets brought up every year, but it's worth repeating because it's such a strong trend.

    The Packers target athleticism as much or more than anyone in the league.

    Here are the relative athletic scores (RAS) of Gutekunst's draft classes so far.

    2018:
    • J. Alexander: 9.5
    • J. Jackson: 9.27
    • O. Burks: 9.73
    • J. Moore: 8.43
    • C. Madison: 4.58
    • J. Scott: N/A
    • M. Valdes-Scantling: 9.30
    • E. St. Brown: 9.80
    • J. Looney: 9.75
    • H. Bradley: N/A
    • K. Donnerson: 9.89
    2019:
    • R. Gary: 9.95
    • D. Savage: 8.36
    • E. Jenkins: 9.34
    • J. Sternberger: 5.20
    • K. Keke: 8.00
    • D. Williams: 8.15
    • K. Hollman: 9.22
    • T. Summers: 9.71
    2020:
    • J. Love: 8.45
    • A. Dillon: 9.16
    • J. Deguara: 8.52
    • K. Martin: N/A
    • J. Hanson: 3.75
    • J. Runyan: 8.49
    • S. Stepaniak: N/A
    • V. Scott: N/A
    • J. Garvin: 8.98
    So through three classes:
    • 4/4 1st round picks have had an RAS of 8+
    • 3/3 2nd round picks have had an RAS of 8+
    • 2/3 3rd round picks have had an RAS of 8+
    • 11/13 day 3 picks have had an RAS of 8+
    • The three (or four-- if you consider Deguara a TE) total exceptions were at TE or OL
    Bottom line-- don't expect too many picks on guys who are sub 8.00 RAS. That's not to say that Packers shouldn't take such players, just that they probably won't.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  2. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    By position, here the guys who qualify at each position who are expected to be draft picks:

    QB:
    • F. Franks, Arkansas: 9.56
    RB:
    • K. Nwangwu, Iowa State: 9.89
    • C. Evans, Michigan: 9.85
    • J. Funk, Maryland: 9.76
    • T. Sermon, Ohio State: 9.66
    • E. Mitchell, Louisiana: 9.51
    • T. Etienee, Clemson: 9.14
    • D. Jackson, Duke: 8.94
    • J. Williams, North Carolina: 8.80
    • C. Hubbard, Oklahoma State: 8.44
    TE:
    • K. Pitts, Florida: 9.66
    • B. Moore, Kansas State: 9.03
    • T. Tremble, Notre Dame: 8.91
    • Z. Davidson, Central Missouri: 8.80
    • L. Farrell, Ohio State: 8.63
    • H. Long, Boston College: 8.60
    WR:
    • J. Harris, Central Florida: 9.88
    • J. Chase, LSU: 9.81
    • T. Marshall, LSU: 9.77
    • J. Camp, Georgia Tech: 9.75
    • N. Collins, Michigan: 9.56
    • R. Moore, Purdue: 9.33
    • M. Strachan, Charleston: 9.22
    • S. Fehoko, Stanford: 9.17
    • K. Toney, Florida: 9.00
    • T. Nixon, Central Florida: 8.98
    • J. Imatorbhebhe, Illinois: 8.97
    • B. Eagles, Texas: 8.96
    • D. Fitzpatrick, Louisville: 8.82
    • E. Moore, Mississippi: 8.68
    • B. Proehl, East Carolina: 8.57
    • C. Wedington, Stanford: 8.47
    • T. Grimes, Florida: 8.45
    • D. Brown, North Carolina: 8.38
    • R. Bateman, Minnesota: 8.04
    OT:
    • S. Brown, Northern Iowa: 10.00
    • S. Cosmi, Texas: 9.99
    • T. Doyle, Miami Ohio: 9.90
    • T. Jenkins, Oklahoma State: 9.74
    • R. Slater, Northwestern: 9.71
    • A. Leatherwood, Alabama: 9.68
    • D. Radunz, North Dakota State: 9.28
    • L. Young, Kentucky: 9.18
    • P. Sewell, Oregon: 8.98
    • D. Moore, Texas AM: 8.97
    • W. Little, Stanford: 8.90
    • S. Forsythe, Florida: 8.78
    iOL:
    • C. Humphrey, Oklahoma: 10.00
    • Q. Meinerz, Wisconsin Whitewater: 9.98
    • T. Smith, Tennessee, 9.91
    • D. Dalman, Stanford: 9.90
    • S. Hutcherson, South Carolina: 9.89
    • B. Christensen, Brigham Young: 9.84
    • C. Herring, Brigham Young: 9.84
    • B. Cleveland, Georgia: 9.63
    • K. Greene, Illinois: 9.23
    • A. Vera-Tucker, USC: 9.04
    • J. Morrissey, Pittsburgh: 9.01
    • R. Newman, Mississippi: 8.73
    • L. Borom, Missouri: 8.66
    • J. Hocker, Texas AM: 8.65
    • J. Anderson, Texas Tech: 8.58
    • L. Eichenberg, Notre Dame: 8.56
    • B. Jaimes, Nebraska: 8.54
    • W. Fries, Penn State: 8.48
    • R. Hainsey, Notre Dame: 8.06
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  3. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    iDL:
    • J. Marshall, Arkansas: 9.99
    • M. Williams, Louisiana Tech: 9.96
    • B. Brown, Texas AM: 9.82
    • T. Graham, Texas: 9.68
    • M. Spencer, Mississippi State: 9.07
    • L. Onwuzurike, Washington: 8.73
    • T. Togiai, Ohio State: 8.58
    • A. McNeill, North Carolina State: 8.53
    • D. Nixon, Iowa: 8.38
    • C. Barmore, Alabama: 8.22
    • D. Stills, West Virginia: 8.16
    ED:
    • J. Oweh, Penn State: 9.92
    • J. Phillips, Miami: 9.87
    • P. Turner, Houston: 9.74
    • E. Smith, Norther Iowa: 9.72
    • J. Kaindoh, Florida State: 9.58
    • J. Ossai, Texas: 9.49
    • S. Toney, Penn State: 9.47
    • C. Basham, Wake Forest: 9.38
    • K. Paye, Michigan: 9.34
    • J. Robinson, Florida State: 9.33
    • J. Tryon, Washington: 9.29
    • W. Bradley-King, Baylor: 9.17
    • A. Ojulari, Georgia: 8.17
    LB:
    • B. Browning, Ohio State: 9.98
    • J. Davis, Kentucky: 9.93
    • M. Parsons, Penn State: 9.59
    • P. Werner, Ohio State: 9.52
    • N. Niemann, Iowa: 9.52
    • B. Johnson, Texas AM: 9.23
    • Z. Collins, Tulsa: 8.73
    • J. Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame: 8.72
    • C. Surratt, North Carolina: 8.47
    • D. Barnes, Purdue: 8.42
    • G. Wallow, TCU: 8.13
    • R. Cole, South Alabama: 8.07
    CB:
    • M. Wilson, Florida: 9.99
    • J. Horn, South Carolina: 9.99
    • P. Surtain, Alabama: 9.96
    • J. Pinnock, Pittsburgh: 9.78
    • I. Melifonwu, Syracuse: 9.69
    • G. Newsome, Northwestern: 9.66
    • R. Rochelle, Central Arkansas: 9.65
    • N. Hobbs, Illinois: 9.61
    • Z. McPhearson, Texas Tech: 9.56
    • P. Adebo, Stanford: 9.55
    • E. Stokes, Georgia: 9.37
    • B. Stephens, SMU: 9.20
    • B. Echols, Kentucky: 9.15
    • K. Joseph, Kentucky: 9.02
    • A. Thomas, Michigan: 8.97
    • A. Robinson, Central Florida: 8.37
    • R. Williams, Oklahoma State: 8.14
    • B. St. Juste, Minnesota: 8.12
    • D. Hall, San Diego State: 8.03
    S:
    • T. Coyle, Purdue: 9.83
    • J. Wiggins, Cincinnati: 9.70
    • D. Forrest, Cincinnati: 9.69
    • C. Sterns, Texas: 9.59
    • J. Holland, Oregon: 9.54
    • D. Deablo, Virginia Tech: 8.03
     
  4. Schultz

    Schultz Cheesehead

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    I thought somebody said Stokes numbers were not good.
     
  5. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Notables beneath the threshold or who don't have data...

    RB:

    • N. Harris, UA: N/A
    • M. Carter, UNC: 6.24
    • K. Gainwell, MEM: 5.71
    • L. Rountree, MIZZ: 2.08
    TE:
    • P. Freiermuth, PSU: N/A
    • T. McKitty, UGA: N/A
    • B. Jordan, MIA: 4.55
    WR:
    • D. Smith, UA: N/A
    • J. Waddle, UA: N/A
    • J. Palmer, TEN: 7.59
    • C. Powell, CLEM: 7.57
    • A. St. Brown, USC: 7.14
    • J. Darden, TSU: 7.14
    • A. Schwartz, AUB: 6.91
    • S. Williams, AUB: 6.87
    • I. Smith-Marsette, IA: 6.80
    • S. Smith, SC: 6.79
    • D. Eskridge, WMU: 6.73
    • A. Rodgers, CLEM: 5.37
    • C. Johnson, SDSU: 3.04
    • A. Watkins, UAB: 2.64
    • D. Felton, UCLA: 0.91
    OT:
    • C. Darriaw, VTU: N/A
    • J. Ball, MAR: 7.79
    • J. Moore, WMU: 7.48
    • D. Smith, ECU: 6.15
    • J. Mayfield, UM: 4.89
    • A. Jackson, IA: 3.25
    iOL:
    • L. Dickerson, UA: N/A
    • W. Davis, OSU: N/A
    • J. Myers, OSU: N/A
    • J. Carman, CLEM: N/A
    • A. Banks, ND: 7.20
    • D. Moore, GRAM: 6.81
    • D. Brown, UA: 1.49
    iDL:
    • O. Odighizuwa, UCLA: 7.64
    • K. Tonga, BYU: 7.24
    • T. Shelvin, LSU: 0.86
    ED:
    • D. Odeyingbo, VAN: N/A
    • C. Rumph, DUKE: N/A
    • G. Rousseau, MIA: 7.75
    • R. Weaver, PITT: 7.32
    • P. Johnson, TUL: 7.24
    • C. Sample, TUL: 6.97
    • Q. Roche, MIA: 6.40
    • R. Perkins, OK: 5.12
    LB:
    • J. Cox, LSU: N/A
    • D. Moses, UA: N/A
    • C. Snowden, UVA: N/A
    • M. Koonze, BUF: N/A
    • E. Jones, SC: 6.40
    • N. Bolton, MIZZ: 4.62
    CB:
    • C. Farley, VTU: N/A
    • S. Wade, OSU: N/A
    • I. Mukuamu, SC: N/A
    • T. Gowan, UCF: 7.65
    • T. Campbell, UGA: 7.52
    • A. Samuel, FSU: 7.46
    • R. Wildgoose, WISC: 7.20
    • K. Taylor, UW: 6.54
    • T. Brown, OK: 6.35
    • E. Molden, UW: 4.66
    • D. Daniel, UGA: 4.36
    • S. Brown, MSU: 2.75
    • O. Griffin, USC: 2.66
    • N. Wright, ORST: 2.47
    S:
    • A. Cisco, SYR: N/A
    • R. Grant, UCF: 7.80
    • T. Moehrig, TCU: 7.36
    • A. Washington, TCU: 5.12
    • K. Vincent, LSU: 4.12
     
  6. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Yes, me. Hi.

    So here's the thing with RAS. It will spit out a number that will tell you that a given player is athletic in some way or another.

    But it doesn't tell you where their athletic strengths lie and it doesn't tell you how they apply them.

    So Stokes for example. Good size. Very explosive (jumps/10 yd). Very fast.

    Not agile-- his shuttle was terrible and his cone was average.

    So while his overall numbers are good enough to give him a great RAS, it's very hard to find historical examples of successful cornerbacks who had shuttle times in the 4.3's.
     
  7. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Majority of the players who were below 8.0 who I would be most interested in the Packers "breaking trend" to draft are all DB's and WR's:
    • T. Moehrig, S, TCU
    • R. Grant, DB, UCF
    • A. Samuel, CB, FSU
    • J. Palmer, WR, TEN
    • S. Smith, WR, SC
    • D. Eskridge, WR, WMU
    There are only a handful of guys who I have liked in the process, or who were highly regarded, who are below 5.00:
    • B. Jordan, TE, MIA
    • C. Johnson, WR, SDSU
    • D. Felton, WR/RB, UCLA
    • J. Mayfield, T/G, OK
    • D. Brown, G, UA
    • N. Bolton, LB, MIZZ
    • E. Molden, DB, UW
    And on that last name, Molden, I've heard that he worked out on a bad hamstring. Take that for whatever it's worth.
     
  8. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    I heard my boy Tyler Shelvin had a very impressive RAS.
     
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  9. Schultz

    Schultz Cheesehead

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    Thanks for the explanation Dantes
     
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  10. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    And of course 4 of these guys are on my draft short list. Geez, I might as well throw 20 darts at a list of 300 names and enter that into the contest.
     
  11. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Because numbers this year have been collected via pro days instead of the combine, there are disparities in what's reported. For instance, I've seen Asante Samuel reported with a 4.50 forty and a 4.41, which is enough of a difference to get him from the 6's in terms of RAS to the mid 7's, which is borderline in the territory that the Packers tend to draft.

    Another guy in this vein is Ihmir Smith-Marsette, the WR from Iowa. Mockdraftable and Platte's RAS has him at 4.50 with a 1.55 10 yard. Others have him with a 4.43 and a crazy 1.44 10 yard. The latter would make him an 8+ RAS guy. And it seems more believable, as he's very fast on tape.
     

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