NFL Playoff Machine

[Cheese Headed Monster]

***Mods please feel free to move this if you all feel it fits better elsewhere.***

I saw that ESPN has the playoff machine up and I was messing around with it today. From what I am getting, it seems like the only way GB gets a 1 or 2 seed would be for us to win out. Majority of "realistic sims I have done put us at the #3 seed.

I also saw that if we lose to San Fran, and win every other game then it won't matter if we win or lose to Minnesota based on my sims, we will fall to the 3 seed regardless.

My X-Factors that may be different from others is I have Seattle winning almost all their remaining games (they may drop 1, 2 if lucky). I also have San Fran losing to Baltimore, Saints, and Seahawks. The simulator is pretty fun to play around with. What do you all predict the seeding to be?

 

[PackAttack12]

If the Packers defeat the 49ers this Sunday, they are in the driver's seat.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I saw that ESPN has the playoff machine up and I was messing around with it today. From what I am getting, it seems like the only way GB gets a 1 or 2 seed would be for us to win out. Majority of "realistic sims I have done put us at the #3 seed.

The Packers could definitely clinch a first round bye by losing another game. They would just need the Saints to lose another one against an NFC opponent.

 

[Mondio]

way too much football left to worry about any of that. Every one of these teams is capable of winning the majority/all of their remaining games and they all play enough teams that if they don't show up, they won't win either.

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

The Packers could definitely clinch a first round bye by losing another game. They would just need the Saints to lose another one against an NFC opponent.

I think I am over valuing the Saints. They may not win as many as I sim'd them too. So you are probably right

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

way too much football left to worry about any of that. Every one of these teams is capable of winning the majority/all of their remaining games and they all play enough teams that if they don't show up, they won't win either.

Not too early, with the NFC as good as it is and being in week 12, and facing San Fran this week, these games have even higher stakes. Now is a fine time to play around with the sim machine to see where we could stack up. All in good fun. Not so serious

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

way too much football left to worry about any of that. Every one of these teams is capable of winning the majority/all of their remaining games and they all play enough teams that if they don't show up, they won't win either.

Totally agree. So much can happen and will, between now and the final games. Injuries, upsets, collapses etc.

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[Mondio]

Not too early, with the NFC as good as it is and being in week 12, and facing San Fran this week, these games have even higher stakes. Now is a fine time to play around with the sim machine to see where we could stack up. All in good fun. Not so serious

by all means, play, but any number of 3 losses distributed among any of these teams against a particular opponent will change scenarios so much, it's nothing more than just guessing. Even if GB wins Sunday night, yes it's an important game but nothing changes because depending on other teams, if GB loses later it could mean nothing, or if it's against the wrong team it could mean everything. Same for most of the other teams at the top of the NFC.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I definitely agree that we have to beat San Fran for a bye, unless San Fran just falls flat in their games after us. I don't see Seattle losing another game and the Saints could be the same way.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The "bad news" for the Packers is that they have 4 out of the last 6 games on the road, that is brutal. The good news, 4 out of those 6 remaining games are against teams that are all but eliminated from the playoffs and may already be looking ahead to next year. While I hope that the Packers end up at 14-2, locking them up the #1 seed, a 12-4 season would be considered very successful and still have them in great position to host a game or 2 in the playoffs and possibly have to win just one road game to make it the Super Bowl.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers could definitely clinch a first round bye by losing another game. They would just need the Saints to lose another one against an NFC opponent.

Which goes to illustrate why some black box probability calculation with 5 or 6 games to go isn't all that helpful.

Sh*t can happen and it usually does. If that happens this week with one team or another then the simulation probabilities will flip and will once again look convining with 20/20 hindsight.

The Saints lost to the lowly Falcons two weeks ago. The Falcons have looked like a playoff team the last two weeks. I would not want to play them right now as they try to salvage respectability (and maybe some jobs). SF and NO both have to play them before the fat lady sings. Can Atlanta keep their recent ball rolling? Who knows. Strength of schedule does not account for momentum, up or down, which can swing on a moments notice. Lowly Arizona gave the 49er's a run for their money. Perhaps the Seahawks won't be so fortunate. After all, six of Seattle's wins have been by 7 points or less, not exactly a dominating season.

A one yard run by McCaffrey or a three yard pass to MVS along the way flips the probability script one way or the other. Will the outcomes be different next time? Who knows. This just scratches the surface of outcomes going the other way hinging on one or two plays multiplied across 16 games per week. We can expect more of same going forward in Packerland or elsewhere. Sh*t will happen, one way or the other.

The Packers 2 game lead over the Rams for the 6th. playoff spot is looking pretty solid. However, no simulation is going to give you a guarantee for even that. Talking about a 1 or 2 seed vs. a 3 sounds like premature chicken counting.

"Take it one week at a time" may be a tired cliche but there is wisdom embedded in it.

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

Take it one week at a time is boring

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Take it one week at a time is boring

Agreed, which is why I'm already stirring up Draft Talk.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Agreed, which is why I'm already stirring up Draft Talk.

For 2031 or 32? I've got the film!

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[Mondio]

Take it one week at a time is boring

i don't know, it's a pretty big game this week. There's gotta be something to talk about

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

i don't know, it's a pretty big game this week. There's gotta be something to talk about

Injuries.....to the 49'ers.

Not that I hope for opponents to be injured but the 49'ers have 7 starters that still weren't practicing today and if none of them can play on Sunday, that bodes well for the Packers. Those players are:

• K Robbie Gould (quadriceps)
• TE Georke Kittle (knee and ankle)
• WR Deebo Sanders (shoulder)
• WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs)
• DE Dee Ford (hamstring)
• RB Matt Breida (ankle),
• LT Joe Staley (finger)

DT D.J. Jones and Edge Dee Ford also sat out.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Take it one week at a time is boring

Boring isn't necesarily wrong. And exciting surely is not necessarily right.

 

[PackAttack12]

The Saints lost to the lowly Falcons two weeks ago. The Falcons have looked like a playoff team the last two weeks. I would not want to play them right now as they try to salvage respectability (and maybe some jobs). SF and NO both have to play them before the fat lady sings.

Great point.

 

[Mondio]

I'd talk more about it, but I haven't watched more than 5 minutes of a single 49er game all year. I have no idea how good they might be or not. Going to have to just find out on Sunday

Though i will say, if we're playing well, I like our chances against anyone, though there are a few teams in the NFC that could be said about. Should be some really good football down the stretch here.

 

[LambeauLombardi]

I spend a good few hours each winter on that site. Addicting!

 

[OldSchool101]

Though i will say, if we're playing well, I like our chances against anyone, though there are a few teams in the NFC that could be said about.

That’s the thing. My only slight on our team is we play up and down. I guess you could say we’re a “dynamic” team. We can play lights out waiving at our competitor as we run across the goal line for a score one week..., or we can give up an 85 yard drive in :43 sec!
Not that I expect it to happen this Sunday, but GB hasn’t put it all together yet. They could use a 3 phase win at some point.

 

[Mondio]

That’s the thing. My only slight on our team is we play up and down. I guess you could say we’re a “dynamic” team. We can play lights out waiving at our competitor as we run across the goal line for a score one week..., or we can give up an 85 yard drive in :43 sec!
Not that I expect it to happen this Sunday, but GB hasn’t put it all together yet. They could use a 3 phase win at some point.

definitely. I figured they "could" be in this position when the season started. I also figured it would be next year until they really started looking like a contender so we're ahead of schedule if you ask me.

They do need to put a complete game down. They good news, is they're 8-2 without having done that and finding ways to get a W. the bad news is, we haven't seen them do it yet and it's getting to the time of year when a solid game is what it's going to take to stay alive.

It's an exciting season to be sure, especially with all the teams that could contend as the NFC representative in the big game.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

GB hasn’t put it all together yet. They could use a 3 phase win at some point.

Agreed and that is probably why very few outside of Green Bay are giving the Packers much of a chance to go all the way. While they are 8-2, they could probably also be 5-5 with a bad break here and a bad break there. So yes, I think we all will start to believe, when the Packers actually put together a 4 quarter game and look like a Super Bowl team in the process.

 

[Poppa San]

Take it one week at a time is boring

May you live in interesting times

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think I am over valuing the Saints. They may not win as many as I sim'd them too. So you are probably right

The Saints don't have a particular tough schedule remaining but I didn't expect them to lose vs. the Falcons two weeks ago either.

I don't see Seattle losing another game and the Saints could be the same way.

The Seahawks have some tough games remaining on their schedule. They could easily lose at least another game.