Jordy's Time is Running Out?

[Pokerbrat2000]

During a podcast with AJ Hawk, Jordy hinted that his playing days are winding down. He put his remaining career at a 2-4 year max. Not that surprising given that Jordy is 32, but when you see it in print, it makes you realize that Jordy could be done as early as after the 2018 season.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/26/jordy-nelson-says-hell-play-two-to-four-more-years/

 

[Dantés]

This is one piece of the puzzle that gets overlooked in the Davante Adams conversation. There's a real chance that Jordy and Cobb are gone by 2019. If you don't keep Adams, then where are you? You're gonna blow some of the end of Rodgers' prime not giving him any weapons?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

During a podcast with AJ Hawk, Jordy hinted that his playing days are winding down. He put his remaining career at a 2-4 year max. Not that surprising given that Jordy is 32, but when you see it in print, it makes you realize that Jordy could be done as early as after the 2018 season.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/26/jordy-nelson-says-hell-play-two-to-four-more-years/

This is one piece of the puzzle that gets overlooked in the Davante Adams conversation. There's a real chance that Jordy and Cobb are gone by 2019. If you don't keep Adams, then where are you? You're gonna blow some of the end of Rodgers' prime not giving him any weapons?

The Packers will most likely have to use an early draft pick on a wide receiver in the near future, possibly even next year to make up for the impending loss of Nelson. Adams should definitely be re-signed by the team.

 

[Poppa San]

This may be a reason for the surplus of developmental WRs on the roster this season. Give them a year or two to grow on the PS and you won't need to draft them high in a few years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This may be a reason for the surplus of developmental WRs on the roster this season. Give them a year or two to grow on the PS and you won't need to draft them high in a few years.

It´s unrealistic to expect a developmental receiver who has to be stashed on the practice squad early in his career to ever adequately replace an elite player like Nelson.

 

[Mondio]

If history is any indicator, this team is not going to be in need of WR's. If there's one position that's been continuously stocked and maintained, it's that one on this team.

 

[PikeBadger]

This is one piece of the puzzle that gets overlooked in the Davante Adams conversation. There's a real chance that Jordy and Cobb are gone by 2019. If you don't keep Adams, then where are you? You're gonna blow some of the end of Rodgers' prime not giving him any weapons?

I really don't see why some people seem to have a problem with having 3 receivers making at least 10 million a year for a couple of years. We aren't in cap danger, and I feel it's a legitimate discussion as to whether Adams can ever be a good #1 receiver but really, I don't see it as a big problem. Yes, we may need to spend a high draft pick on a WR in the next couple of years but so what?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If history is any indicator, this team is not going to be in need of WR's. If there's one position that's been continuously stocked and maintained, it's that one on this team.

The 2015 season should work as a cautionary tale in that the Packers might not be able to replace Nelson with ease though.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, we may need to spend a high draft pick on a WR in the next couple of years but so what?

I don´t consider having to use an early draft pick on a receiver as a problem, just wanted to mention it as a possibility.

 

[lambeaulambo]

Jordy on the Dolphins is a non factor...it is Rodgers that makes the passing game work, not Jordy.

 

[Dantés]

Jordy on the Dolphins is a non factor...it is Rodgers that makes the passing game work, not Jordy.

No one would dispute that Rodgers is the most important cog by a huge margin, but he isn't the whole machine. The passing offense has struggled plenty when Nelson isn't right.

 

[Dantés]

You can press a disagree button all you like, but it's a fact that the passing offense struggled without Nelson. Thanks for the thorough rebuttal!

 

[C-Lee]

I ****ing love Jordy.

 

[XPack]

Jordy on the Dolphins is a non factor...it is Rodgers that makes the passing game work, not Jordy.

You know this is a 'team' effort, right?

 

[Carl]

Jordy on the Dolphins is a non factor...it is Rodgers that makes the passing game work, not Jordy.

Yes, Rodgers is the most important part of the passing offense, but it's obvious that Jordy is a very good receiver also.

 

[easyk83]

No one would dispute that Rodgers is the most important cog by a huge margin, but he isn't the whole machine. The passing offense has struggled plenty when Nelson isn't right.

Even with Nelson it was starting to struggle with press man coverage from good defenses. Part of the 2015 problem wasn't just receivers but that spread it out sandlot ISO trash that couldn't even get Nelson open against good corners. Since 15, and despite Aaron's resistance, we've incorporated a lot of manbeater routes into our O. We see a lot more stack sets and even some bunch formations.

 

[Mondio]

Even with Nelson it was starting to struggle with press man coverage from good defenses. Part of the 2015 problem wasn't just receivers but that spread it out sandlot ISO trash that couldn't even get Nelson open against good corners. Since 15, and despite Aaron's resistance, we've incorporated a lot of manbeater routes into our O. We see a lot more stack sets and even some bunch formations.

i thought this "manbeater" stuff died a while ago. As soon as Jordy came back and our oline stayed intact and played better and Adams was beating DB's off the first step and getting open. Our offense hasn't changed people. our struggles in '15 weren't because our coaches didn't know how to call an offense. literally everything before and pretty much since proves otherwise. Adams, hurt, Cobb, hurt, Jordy hurt, constant rotation on the offensive line. games with Bulaga and BahkT hurt or out. Inside guys like lang and Sitton, hurt. It wasn't the offensive plays, it was pretty much everything else.

We didn't change the offense to start 16 either. Rodgers was forcing things to Jordy, Jordy wasn't quite back, we had 3 RB's go down. and when they roared back to life, they weren't calling a different offense then either. What changed? it wasn't the play calls.

 

[easyk83]

i thought this "manbeater" stuff died a while ago. As soon as Jordy came back and our oline stayed intact and played better and Adams was beating DB's off the first step and getting open. Our offense hasn't changed people. our struggles in '15 weren't because our coaches didn't know how to call an offense. literally everything before and pretty much since proves otherwise. Adams, hurt, Cobb, hurt, Jordy hurt, constant rotation on the offensive line. games with Bulaga and BahkT hurt or out. Inside guys like lang and Sitton, hurt. It wasn't the offensive plays, it was pretty much everything else.

We didn't change the offense to start 16 either. Rodgers was forcing things to Jordy, Jordy wasn't quite back, we had 3 RB's go down. and when they roared back to life, they weren't calling a different offense then either. What changed? it wasn't the play calls.

Yes Adams did play better but we have been using a lot more stack sets and less spread iso, especially when teams line up and press us. In particular we've been using a lot of stack sets to get Jordy a clean release off the line.

 

[Mondio]

we used them before too. Our offense is still basically the same. MM didn't just discover these things. I remember the arguement back then too, meanwhile we're running this stuff and it's not working either, but everybody thought it was because we weren't running the right plays. I remember a play that set Cobb free wide open in the endzone and Rodgers didn't even throw it to him. and the next week everyone was complaining about "manbeater" routes again.

 

[easyk83]

I definitely remember seeing a lot more man beater type routes in the last season than I saw in seasons past. I remember making remarks about all of the stack and occasional bunch sets in the shoutbox last season. I also noticed that when teams were pressing our guys effectively that we would respond with bunch sets to force them to play zone.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If the Packers are serious about shopping Hundley they need to give him more snaps without Spriggs on the field.

Given what Hundley did with the first team (less Bulaga), I'm not really sure Hundley's value has improved. The "Hundley Sale" might have to wait at least another year for him to show more, as well as the Packers to find a legit #2 to take his place.

 

[sschind]

If history is any indicator, this team is not going to be in need of WR's. If there's one position that's been continuously stocked and maintained, it's that one on this team.

Continuously stocked and maintained doesn't mean adequately stocked and maintained. Yes we will always have WRs to put on the field but will they be anywhere close to the level of a Nelson or Cobb or even Adams? Since you brought up history You are correct that going back to the Robert Brooks era we have seemed to have maintained a group of WRs with a pretty high talent level but IMO that level has been steadily dropping. It may have leveled out for now with Nelson, Cobb and Adams but after them its a cast of nobodies (so far) with no heir apparent. That doesn't mean one can't step up but I think its just as likely that we have a bunch of OK #3 guys as it is that we have 1 or more that will step up and be anything more.

Jordy is under contract for 2 more seasons correct? If you want to read into his comments by him saying 2-4 more years it seems to me that he is saying he really doesn't want to play for another team so if the Packer decide to move on after 2018 he may just retire but also by saying 2-4 he may be saying he would like to continue as a Packer after 2018 and he may be hinting that he would be willing to rework his deal. So how about this, keep in mind this is all predicated in the Packers having any interest in keeping after next year.. Nelson is scheduled to make about 9.2 million in salary next season, another 1 million in bonuses with a total cap hit of about 12.5 million. Lets take 6 million of that 9.2, convert it to a signing bonus and give him a 2 year extension with an additional 3 million 2019 and 4 million in 2020 with roster bonuses each year of 500K.

If my understanding of the cap is correct and my math is correct it would do the following. It would give us cap relief of 6 million next year. We would also have him under contract for two more years at a cap hit of 6.5 million in 2019 and 7.5 million in 2020. I don't think that would be bad assuming no significant drop off in talent. I think our dead cap hit would be 6 million in 2019 and 3 million in 202. Jordy would receive an extra 2 years and an extra 8 million dollars.

I'm not sure if those numbers are in line with what a 34 year old WR would get on a 2 year deal but even if you had to adjust it up or down you get the idea. I think Jordy is a pretty smart guy. He has seen what leaving the Packers has done for not only the careers of other Packer favorites but the legacy as well. The fact that he is not looking to play for more than 4 years or so (2 years past his current deal) tells me he really doesn't want to go anywhere else so I think a deal like this would be very attractive to him and the Packers.

By doing this before next season it also guarantees Jordy the 6 million in SB because as it stands right now we could cut him next year (not likely but possible) and he gets nothing. It would free up space for an extension of Adams and would severely lessen the potential impact of losing two of our top 3 WRs after next year. Its possible we could offer a similar deal to Cobb but at his age he is more likely going to want a longer deal and more money.

I know the Packers don't seem to be too keen on this sort of restructure/extension but IMO it works very well for both sides.

 

[easyk83]

Given what Hundley did with the first team (less Bulaga), I'm not really sure Hundley's value has improved. The "Hundley Sale" might have to wait at least another year for him to show more, as well as the Packers to find a legit #2 to take his place.

One series in which both Bakh and Adams screwed up, Bakh backed them up with a penalty and Adams dropped a gimme throw in his hands.

 

[Mondio]

Continuity of coaching, QB, offense etc all play a role. It definitely helps.

And our QBs and coaches have had more than adequate talent at the WR position over the pst decade. I think it would be a challenge to find many players or analysts that didn't think GB has had plenty of passing targets in that time that other teams would have loved to have.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Continuously stocked and maintained doesn't mean adequately stocked and maintained. Yes we will always have WRs to put on the field but will they be anywhere close to the level of a Nelson or Cobb or even Adams? Since you brought up history You are correct that going back to the Robert Brooks era we have seemed to have maintained a group of WRs with a pretty high talent level but IMO that level has been steadily dropping. It may have leveled out for now with Nelson, Cobb and Adams but after them its a cast of nobodies (so far) with no heir apparent. That doesn't mean one can't step up but I think its just as likely that we have a bunch of OK #3 guys as it is that we have 1 or more that will step up and be anything more.

I think it also helps that in that time frame, the Packers for the most part have only had 2 starting QB's. One a hall of famer and the other one all but guaranteed a spot. Not trying to take anything away from a talented group of WR's over the last 22+ years, but having #4 and #12 throwing to you as well as the chemistry that could be established by the many years of working together, sure has paid dividends.