Jones, Perry Shedding Bust Labels

[Sunshinepacker]

Well, Perry is in his fourth season now and the Packers, by declining their fifth-year option on him, seem to be kind of disappointed with him as well.

I was referring to Jones...

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Given that rookies get four-year contracts, how long should they get before showing promise?

Jones has shown plenty of promise. First round players get four year deals with a fifth year option. Give a guy three seasons to show promise, that's been sort of the rough rule for a long time. In the last couple of years though that's changed and suddenly guys are being judged halfway through their second years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I was referring to Jones...

Well, Jones is in his third season as well and so far has only gotten significant playing time as an inside rusher in subpackages. I'm sorry but that is disappointing for a first-round pick.

 

[Carl]

With Thompson using a first-round pick on both of them I think the expectation was for them to be centerpieces of the defense. That hasn´t happened because of injuries and their performance though.

I could see the expectation for an early first round draft pick to become a centerpiece of a defense, but not late round guys unless a super talented guy dropped for some reason.

 

[Carl]

Four preseason games.

Some fans can probably tell in one preseason half.

Or at least it's enough for them can to call our defense bad and say we won't make it the Super Bowl....

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I could see the expectation for an early first round draft pick to become a centerpiece of a defense, but not late round guys unless a super talented guy dropped for some reason.

A first-round pick is a team's best chance to draft an impact player even if the pick is late in the round. That's especially true for the Packers as the team seldom uses free agency. Selecting an average player has to be considered a failure.

 

[easyk83]

Well, Jones is in his third season as well and so far has only gotten significant playing time as an inside rusher in subpackages. I'm sorry but that is disappointing for a first-round pick.

Disappointing but it's tough to see the field when a guy like Mike Daniels is filling your spot.

 

[Carl]

A first-round pick is a team's best chance to draft an impact player even if the pick is late in the round. That's especially true for the Packers as the team seldom uses free agency. Selecting an average player has to be considered a failure.

Yes, best chance to make an impact, but it'a still super high expectations to expect all of our 1st round defenders be a centerpiece of the defense.

Considering a good rate for hitting on picks is 1/3, it's not realistic to for all their first round defenders to be super good. Taking the last 3 first rounds (other than Randall since it's so early) as a whole, it looks solid with HaHa turning into a stud and Jones and Perry making impacts.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Disappointing but it's tough to see the field when a guy like Mike Daniels is filling your spot.

Don't forget that Jones lost his starting spot on the defensive line to Josh Boyd more than once during his career as well.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, best chance to make an impact, but it'a still super high expectations to expect all of our 1st round defenders be a centerpiece of the defense.

Considering a good rate for hitting on picks is 1/3, it's not realistic to for all their first round defenders to be super good. Taking the last 3 first rounds (other than Randall since it's so early) as a whole, it looks solid with HaHa turning into a stud and Jones and Perry making impacts.

Hitting one out of three picks is considered a good rate for all draft picks, teams relying heavily on the draft have to do better than that in the first round.

I agree that it's unrealistic to expect all first-round picks to turn into a centerpiece of the team, it's still disappointing if you only get a rotational player like Jones out of it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

http://packerstalk.com/2015/10/06/jones-perry-shedding-bust-labels/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+PackersTalk+(PackersTalk.com)

There is a lot more to this article. Most players from the 2011-13 drafts have pretty well either become good players or busts. I'm still holding my opinions on Perry, Jones, and Mike Neal. There are a host of lower picks from 2013 that still need to prove themselves, but these three guys have been walking the tightrope of failure. Interesting that at least two of them are finally putting it together (hopefully).

I seem to be alone in this opinion, but Neal is as a pretty good ballplayer to my eye.

The simplified defense seems to be doing Perry some good. He seems to be getting off the ball quicker this season and playing with more authority. Still, not the 3 down run stop/pass rush/cover guy you would want out of the first round.

Jones? I still see him as a tweener...a little quick but not all that quick; a little strong but really not that physical. He's a player who's yet to find an identity.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well, Perry is in his fourth season now and the Packers, by declining their fifth-year option on him, seem to be kind of disappointed with him as well.

Picking up the 5th. year option for Perry would have cost the average of the 3rd. - 25th. salaries at his position. That's quality 3-down player money. This rule applies to all #10 - #32 picks.

Melvin Ingram was also a 2012 draftee, is also a 3-4 OLB, and was also a 10 - 32 pick (#18). He'll be paid $7.8 mil next season under the 5th. year option.

"Kind of" disappointed in Perry is probably a good way to put it, since there are several millions worth of disappointment in his play compared to that Ingram option figure.

Of the 2012 first round draftees, the following were not offered a 5th. year option:

#3 - Trent Richardson (He was traded and signed a 2 year deal with Oakland, but we should include him here since nobody would have exercised the option had the opportunity presented itself.)
#6 - Morris Claiborne
#7 - Mark Barron
#15 - Bruce Irvin (Seattle expressed interest at the time in signing him to a new contract, but
that has not happened...it's safe to say they didn't think him worth the option money or
they want to spread the 2016 cap hit with a new deal eventually)
#19 - Shea McClellin
#22 - Brandon Weedon (He was cut and ineligible for the option; like Richardson nobody
would have paid him that money)
#26 - Whitney Mercilus (He signed a 4 year/$26 mil contract instead having the option exercised; he really doesn't belong in this list so I'll strike him)
#28 - Perry
#30 - A.J. Jenkins (SF cut him and he was a free agent; put him in the Richardson/Weedon category)
#31 - Doug Martin
#32 - David Wilson (He he retired due to injury, so I've struck him.)

On this basis anyway, 1 out of 3 first rounders from 2012 were busts. It's interesting to note that Irvin (perhaps a semi-bust on this basis, though that hardly seems right at all) and McClellin were in the conversation along with Perry as draft possibilities for the "bookend" position.

 

[SoonerPack]

Wherever we are getting the contributions from be it 1st rounder, middle rounder or UDFA it's great to see this D flying around and playing team ball. Yes, Jones has not lived up to his draft status but he's playing pretty good ball when his name is called this season. Perry just seems to have a fire in him I haven't seen before. I know health has been his main issue but there was a certain sense of "oh well" aka Cutlers Disease I felt with him in the past. I think there's a difference between a bust and someone that hasn't lived up to expectations to date. A bust is Sherrod. A bust is Thornton. Perry and Jones are guys making contributions while showing flashes from time to time. Bottom line is this D has me feeling good right now and I expect them to improve with some of the youth playing at key positions. G P G!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I seem to be alone in this opinion, but Neal is as a pretty good ballplayer to my eye.

Neal is valuable to the Packers defense because of his versatility being able to line up at OLB and DT in subpackages. IMO he's another average player though.

I think there's a difference between a bust and someone that hasn't lived up to expectations to date. A bust is Sherrod. A bust is Thornton. Perry and Jones are guys making contributions while showing flashes from time to time.

I agree that neither Perry nor Jones should be labelled as busts but there's no doubt expectations were higher for them at the time they were drafted.

 

[Mondio]

I understand how some arrive at "bust" for certain players, but I can't label sherrod a bust. That was a brutal leg break requiring multi surgeries and 2 years if rehab to back on the field. Yeah he looked terrible, but big men don't support themselves without legs. I don't think he would have been a superstar regardless, but I can't label him a bust after that injury, seems a little unfair when he never really had a chance.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Neal is valuable to the Packers defense because of his versatility being able to line up at OLB and DT in subpackages. IMO he's another average player though.

Interestingly, Neal has made two clutch closing plays over the last 9 regular season games.

He sacked Kaepernick with about 4:30 on the clock on a 4th. and 5 at the Packer 15. That was the dagger as SF would have been back in the game with a TD.

On New England's last possession in last season's game, it was 3rd. and 9 at the GB 20 with the Pats down 5. The box score shows Neal and Daniels sharing the sack, but Neal made the play as Brady was ducking him into Daniels' path.

Sometimes +2 doesn't tell the whole story.

He's not going to be confused with Pro Bowl OLBs, but he's an assignment-sure player, he holds the edge well in the run game and he does have that versatility. He's the kind of workman-like player that allows playmakers to make plays. Out of context, "average" is about right as you say. In the context of this defense, I'd grade him a little higher. I think the Packers have been getting at least $4 mil worth of play out of him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I know health has been his main issue but there was a certain sense of "oh well" aka Cutlers Disease I felt with him in the past.

To belabor the point, are you sure it wasn't "Capers disease?" Perry is no finesse player and there's not much in the way of football smarts in evidence on the field. He's a physical guy with outstanding athletic measurable and some football instincts. Simplification of the defense has had a "release the hounds" affect on several players, Perry included. Of course, it is his contract year, so that might play into it as well.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

the big guys take a few years before the can dominate imo. i dont care if they are raji, 340, 33 reps and 32 verticle. obviously there are exceptions. but 22 year olds are not full grown yet. and the nfl is the best of the best. same goes for offense. perry was not ready to be our olb. he is much closer now. . i bet he stays.

 

[HardRightEdge]

perry was not ready to be our olb. he is much closer now. . i bet he stays.

That will depend (1) on how he finishes out this season and (2) whether somebody will throw more money at him than Thompson/Ball are willing to pay. Daniels, Raji, Guion, Neal, Hayward, Crosby and a few others are in their contract years. Perry is not the kind of at-all-costs player that can be looked at out of context.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

speaking of jones. he wasnt the right guy to expect to start as a young man. maybe he grows into a full timer. but we got what we drafted. a fast quick and strong guy who comes in on a tired ot, after guys like daniels, guion pound the trench for 8 plays. less reps equals more production. he could get 10 sacks as a fastball change up

 

[easyk83]

Don't forget that Jones lost his starting spot on the defensive line to Josh Boyd more than once during his career as well.

True but in a 34 you typically need a 315 pounder to play next to your nose in one of the spots. Jones was too small in that spot.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

we have a ton of cap too...might lose a couple. and with guys like elliot...one never knows if perry is strategically let go... but if we werent willing to see it through, why draft him or jones? both were project players.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Out of context, "average" is about right as you say. In the context of this defense, I'd grade him a little higher. I think the Packers have been getting at least $4 mil worth of play out of him.

If Neal would come off the bench either replacing Matthews or Peppers I would grade him as better than average as well. As a starter though I think it's about fair.

True but in a 34 you typically need a 315 pounder to play next to your nose in one of the spots. Jones was too small in that spot.

I've posted the average weight of all 3-4 DLs and their respective defensive rankings during last offseason several times. It showed that a talented 3-4 defensive line can dominate with three guys weighting less than 300 pounds.

we have a ton of cap too...might lose a couple. and with guys like elliot...one never knows if perry is strategically let go... but if we werent willing to see it through, why draft him or jones? both were project players.

While the Packers currently have a ton of cap space they will have to re-sign several important and high-priced free agents within the next two years. Thompson and Russ Ball will have to make extremely smart decisions to make it work.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

I could see the expectation for an early first round draft pick to become
centerpiece of a defense, but not late round guys unless a super talented guy dropped for some reason.

I don't know if I agree with this. A first round pick is a first round pick because they're expected to come in and produce. Perry and Jones were expected to come in, start full time and make plays. Perry has been super disappointing, but at least has been working out well in a rotation with Mike Neal. Jones seems to be settling much better than Perry.

 

[PikeBadger]

I could see the expectation for an early first round draft pick to become a centerpiece of a defense, but not late round guys unless a super talented guy dropped for some reason.

Imo, the real impact players are generally top 10-12 draft picks. In most years, picks 15-45 are pretty similar in talent. We were very fortunate to have a chance to get Matthews as late as we did.
All round 1 players are not equal.