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Injuries Hampering Packers

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Bagadeez04, Mar 4, 2013.

  1. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    Just a thought that I'm sure has been talked about here, but just seems incredible that last season the Packers lost their last three 1st round picks to IR and still managed to make it to second round of the playoffs. For a "draft and develop" team that is pretty incredible.

    The larger problem for me is that high draft picks like Bulaga, Sherrod, Perry, Worthy (just off the top of my head) etc... etc... are missing significant amounts of time and thus will not develop as well as the Packers would have hoped. Injuries may very well wreck Sherrod and Worthy, and Perry is attempting to transition from DE to OLB and is surely way behind where he should be.

    Of course the implications "in-season" are obvious to losing this many players, but the long term hurt this will put on the franchise is more difficult to predict. May be a reason to jump into free agency a bit more to offset those losses from year to year, and also take a look at changing out the strength and conditioning staff. I realize MM isn't a fan of getting rid of his coaches/staff, but this may be a necessary evil.

    Anyone out there know of a statistical analysis that's been done in the NFL regarding injuries? It would be interesting to see if the Packers are in fact suffering significantly more injuries than other NFL teams over the last few years, or if it's just perceived that way.
     
  2. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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  3. texaspackerbacker

    texaspackerbacker Cheesehead

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  4. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    In previous threads regarding this topic, people have pointed to us having the 6th most players on IR in 2012 and the most on IR in 2010. Based on those stats they want to fire the trainers, strength & conditioning coaches, Dr. McKenzie, Spot McKenzie, and Mikey - the boy who will eat anything.

    Yes it's frustrating to have all of these injuries but it happens to some teams more than others. There are so many factors beyond what the coaching staff can affect such as: 1) the physical limitations of each player's body; 2) eating habits; 3) the plays each injured player is involved in; 4) you could even argue the way that a guy sits on a chair can influence if they are more likely to sustain knee and hamstring injuries. That's why I think that it's preposterous for so-called fans to lobby for someone to lose their job over something that they have largely no control over. They can tell guys how to stretch, how to prepare, and how to keep in shape but it's the players' responsibility to do all of that and to magically avoid being hit in the knee by another player's helmet!
     
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  5. texaspackerbacker

    texaspackerbacker Cheesehead

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    To some extent, I agree with you. It's a matter of LUCK more than anything else, though. Maybe we need to consult with the man who had the longest consecutive game streak in NFL history (is that correct? or was it just among QBs). I don't think he was particularly known for conditioning or good eating habits. Sometimes I think these big time athletes overdo the conditioning. And the eating, well, extremely overrated as a factor. I'm 65 years old. I have played sports to some degree right up to the present (tennis now). I have a moderate gut over my belt, and I religiously refuse to stretch, but I have never had any kind of muscle, tendon, ligament, or bone injury. Luck, I guess hahaha.
     
  6. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Another example.
    While our defense had more than half of our players get hurt last year.... over in Philly, former Packer Cullen Jenkins played 2 seasons for the Eagles and missed a total of ZERO games there.

    It's the same player who missed much time before that, when he was a Packer.

    Just another veggie there to chew on......
     
  7. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    There is research that shows that stretching can lead to more injuries. Then again, they tell you every few years that eggs are good, then they are bad, then they are good...

    I was very limber in my highschool days. I could outreach the female gymnasts and could really move things around. I stretched a lot before and after lifting weights and walked away from high school football with dislocated shoulders and torn rotator cuffs. Since those days, I stopped stretching but switched to warming up and warming down after playing sports. It's made all the difference...that and not being bludgeoned by guys weighing twice as much as me!
     
  8. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Correlation does not equal causation without sufficient evidence
     
  9. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Bottom line is.... missed time with us all the time.
    Missed no time in 2 full years with Philly.
    Call it luck. Or something else. It happened.
     
  10. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I don't think anyone gets your point, and I think it is an interesting one.

    To sum up: Injuries has the immediate impact of player availability, but may also be to the detriment to a player's long term development. I don't believe the impact will be that great. In fact, sitting on the bench the first year or two may have an advantage. Most players say the game slows down for them when they understand it better. Sitting and learning may help it 'slow down' so that when they do take the field they are better mentally prepared. Some players, I am told, can become discouraged when they don't dominate like they did in college immediately. They get the feeling of not being good enough and give up - wash out of the league.
     
  11. Bagadeez04

    Bagadeez04 Cheesehead

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    Am I missing something? This is the article you quoted, with the Packers at #1 in injuries for 2012. I know you're referring to IR (which I also referenced in the OP), but in overall games missed the Packers lead the league.

    NFL team-by-team injuries: Can Cowboys use health as an excuse?
    123
    393

    A Text Size [​IMG] [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Michael Ainsworth/Staff Photographer
    Cowboys' injuries: ILB Sean Lee (toe), S Barry Church (Achilles tendon), NT Jay Ratliff (hernia), OLB DeMarcus Ware (shoulder, elbow), CB Orlando Scandrick (hand), WRs Dez Bryant (back, finger), Miles Austin (ankle) and Dwayne Harris (ankle). The coaching and training staff will be busy monitoring the players’ progress. They will pay close attention to Ratliff and free agents Kenyon Coleman (triceps) and Phil Costa (pictured), who all missed most of the season.

    The Cowboys had the third most games lost to injury in the NFL, according to data compiled by Rick Gosselin. But the two most hurt teams -- Washington and Green Bay -- made the playoffs.
    This chart lists the games lost by starters due to injury during the 2012 NFL season. It lists the team, the number of games lost (Games), players placed on injured reserve (IR), the number of 16-game starters (16g) plus the key injury and his games lost:

    Team
    Made Playoffs
    Games
    16g
    IR
    Key injury
    games
    1. San Francisco
    Yes
    8
    17
    1
    WR Mario Manningham
    4
    2. Seattle
    Yes
    11
    13
    0
    G James Carpenter
    5
    3. New Orleans

    20
    11
    1
    LB Jonathan Vilma
    4
    4. Chicago

    23
    7
    2
    G Chilo Rachal
    6
    5. Miami

    23
    16
    3
    CB Richard Marshall
    12
    6. Houston
    Yes
    24
    11
    1
    LB Brian Cushing
    11
    7. Minnesota
    Yes
    24
    12
    1
    WR Percy Harvin
    7
    8. St. Louis

    24
    10
    1
    C Scott Wells
    9
    9. New England
    Yes
    27
    7
    0
    G Logan Mankins
    6
    10. Atlanta
    Yes
    33
    10
    2
    CB Brent Grimes
    15
    11. NY Giants

    38
    9
    1
    S Kenny Phillips
    9
    12. San Diego

    42
    9
    6
    OT Jared Gaither
    12
    13. Baltimore
    Yes
    46
    8
    2
    LB Ray Lewis
    10
    14. NY Jets

    47
    9
    3
    CB Darrelle Revis
    14
    15. Oakland

    47
    8
    1
    CB Shawntee Spencer
    14
    16. Tampa Bay

    48
    12
    4
    G Davin Joseph
    16
    17. Arizona

    49
    7
    3
    OT Levi Brown
    16
    18. Cleveland

    49
    8
    4
    LB Chris Gocong
    16
    19. Tennessee

    51
    7
    5
    C Eugene Amano
    16
    20. Denver
    Yes
    52
    9
    4
    DT Ty Warren
    15
    21. Pittsburgh

    52
    8
    5
    S Troy Polamalu
    9
    22. Buffalo

    55
    10
    5
    WR David Nelson
    15
    23. Cincinnati
    Yes
    56
    10
    3
    LB Thomas Howard
    15
    24. Kansas City

    56
    5
    4
    C Rodney Hudson
    13
    25. Philadelphia

    63
    6
    6
    OT Jason Peters
    16
    26. Carolina

    65
    6
    6
    CB Chris Gamble
    12
    27. Indianapolis
    Yes
    66
    5
    2
    G Seth Olsen
    11
    28. Detroit

    69
    10
    6
    HB Jahvid Best
    16
    29. Jacksonville

    69
    7
    6
    G Will Rackley
    16
    30. Cowboys

    71
    8
    5
    S Barry Church
    13
    31. Washington
    Yes
    75
    13
    4
    OT Jammal Brown
    16
    32. Green Bay
    Yes
    83
    8
    4
    LB Desmond Bishop
    16
     
  12. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Like most things, you have to parse through what the data presents to determine what it actually means. Take for example Team A and Team B. If Team A loses three of its starters in the first game of the season but then is relatively healthy from that point on, it would indicate 48 games missed (16 x 3) for Team A. Team B could lose 5 starters towards the end of the season, let's say all in Week 12. They would miss the remaining 5 games and therefore count as 25 games (5 starters x 5 games).

    Team A put 3 players on IR
    Team B put 5 players on IR

    Team A had 48 games missed due to injury
    Team B had 25 games missed due to injury

    Which team was more handicapped?
     
  13. texaspackerbacker

    texaspackerbacker Cheesehead

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    There are numerous things left out of the equation. In addition to time - as Guapo just cited, there is position and depth/alternatives available to the injured players. For example, doubling up with Bishop and Smith was like sticking the knife in deeper. On the other hand, Jennings and Nelson, even though better players, probably were not missed as much because of who replaced them. Obviously, quality of the player getting hurt means a lot also. Missing Aaron Rodgers (heaven forbid!) would be a lot worse than (fill in the blank - ANYBODY else).
     
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It depends on who the players are.
     
  15. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Obviously this was just a simple example of how even those two methodologies don't match up
     
  16. GeeDogWarrior

    GeeDogWarrior 0 - 0

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    1. Heck No on jumping into Free Agency - Draft is why we have depth - Draft/Develop keeps the cap healthy - allows us to acquire decent backups and role players.

    2. yeah - somethings up, whether it's our strength & conditioning coaches or if Ted only drafts players that walked under a ladder - idk, but it's ridiculous how many injuries we've had (evened years too, 2008/2010/2012).

    I think it's cause our roster is so young (early 20s) - a lot of young bodies have to harden up to the punishment that the nfl dishes out - idk, Matt Stafford/Rodgers/Neal were both on IR a lot their first year or so in the league then they ...got tough, idk.
     
  17. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    The real problem with the draft can be illustrated below.
    We all know our GM eschews adding players via free agency, as he prefers to improve his team via the draft.

    Our top 2 picks who were supposed to improve our team immediately last year, were Nick Perry & Jerel Worthy.
    Obviously Worthy got hurt early, in game ONE, played a little longer, then made the Houston game in week 6 his final game before being IR'd for the season. He looked promising, but his addition at the top of our draft didn't make us better after mid-October.

    Worthy didn't tear his ACL til the last game, but he was worthless out there and don't take offense to that term. He did nothing, and even the play he tore his ACL on, he was nowhere to be seen, a non-factor.... he wasn't even caught on film on the play.

    Of course Heyward played great though, but when your 1st & 2nd picks don't provide anything, you're going to slip. Obviously we slipped from 2011 to 2012.
    Look at the top 2 picks in 2009, Raji & Matthews.
    Good picks + good health = Team Improving.
    Good, OK, or bad picks + bad health = Team Step back.

    In addition to that, we already know now that we are losing our DB captain in Woodson, and our former #1 WR in Jennings.

    These draft picks this year are going to have to produce closer to the 2009 top guys than the 2012 top guys if we are going to close the gap between us and SF, plus there are other teams up there now like Seattle & Atlanta.
     
  18. texaspackerbacker

    texaspackerbacker Cheesehead

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    All good points, but what does it mean for the upcoming season? That can best be summarized by saying we need some luck ..... or increased toughness hahaha or whatever. Logically, if we have a good draft and if we don't have the bad luck of last season - and really it was worse even than you say if you include Nelson, the ILBs, the OTs, the RBs, Matthews missing time, etc., then this year should be a lot better. And what is a lot better than 11 - 5 and second round of the playoffs. It obviously doesn't always work that way, but there is reason to be hopeful.
     
  19. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    How do injuries illustrate the “real problem” with the draft? Injuries affect players acquired via UFA, street FA, UDFA, and the draft. That players can get injured doesn’t distinguish them by the category of their acquisition. If Thompson jumped into the UFA frenzy and mortgaged the future for one player and that player got injured, that would be a much better argument regarding “real problems” acquiring a certain category of player. Because in addition to the hole in the lineup that would cause, a corresponding problem would exist in the team’s salary cap and perhaps cash reserve. Beyond that while the hope is that draftees contribute immediately Thompson’s draft and develop policy emphasizes development. So it’s not only the most recent draftees that are counted upon but previous ones who have hopefully developed.
    As we all know, the Packers draft emphasized defense, including of course the first two picks. The defense went from 19th in scoring defense to 11th. That’s obviously not “slipping”.
     
  20. wizard 87

    wizard 87 Packer Addict

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    Here you go http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/2012-adjusted-games-lost

     
  21. texaspackerbacker

    texaspackerbacker Cheesehead

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    [quote="ThxJackVainisi, post: 491564, member:
    ...... The defense went from 19th in scoring defense to 11th. That’s obviously not “slipping”. [/quote]

    Not to be negative, but part of that improvement in scoring defense may be due to the Packers not scoring as quickly as the year before - the D may have been on the field less. Also, I don't have any stats, but I'm pretty sure our D got less turnovers last year than the year before.
     
  22. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    The difficulty of this analysis is that the loss of a 2nd string OLB is given the same weight as if Rodgers was lost for a game. Obviously the loss of Rodgers would have a greater impact on the Packers than any other player on the roster.
     
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  23. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Nothing wrong with being negative IMO if it’s accurate. In spite of what happened at San Fran in the playoffs, IMO the “eye test” of the average fan should render the opinion the D improved from 2011. In addition to scoring D, the Packers surrendered about 1300 fewer passing yards and improved from 32nd to seventh in passing average. They went from opponents’ passer rating of 80.6 to 76.8, they went from last in sack percentage in ’11 to fourth. In 2011, 11 WRs had 100+ yard games vs. the Packers, in 2012 six did. The 2012 run D was worse by 6.7 yards per game and opponents ran the ball about two more times per game in 2012. But opponents’ averaged 4.7 ypc in 2011 and 4.5 ypc in 2012. The Packers were worse in 2012 in forcing TOs as they forced 15 fewer than in 2011, but nearly every other stat, including the most important (points) favors the 2012 D. Don’t get me wrong, the D still has to get better, I’m certainly not saying they’ve “arrived”. My point here is only that the Packers D was better in 2012 than 2011.
     
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  24. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Let's take a look at the differences between the 2011 & 2012 Packer defenses.

    First, in personnel:
    We had new starters at safety, ILB (because Bishop was out), and OLB.
    Our DL depth was bolstered.
    Woodson was moved.
    Tramon was much healthier than in 2011.

    The pass rush, mostly because of the additions of Perry & Moses, were much improved, at least early in the season.
    Mike Neal got back in October and he provided some juice on the DL getting after QB's.

    I know TJV thinks I emphasize too much on the SF game, but the fact is we have to be able to beat them and/or the Giants, and we didn't look anywhere close to being able to beat those teams last year or in the playoffs the year before, and that's much to do with the defense.

    I believe it's almost all on the front 7. I like our DBs and I believe Jerron McMillian has the goods to become a good starter along side Burnett.
    I don't expect anything at all from Worthy next year, if ever. I didn't like what I saw from him.

    Desmond Bishop's recovery will be crucial. Hawk has never shown that he can be a + difference-maker. At best, he's a dependable guy who stays healthy and doesn't Eff up too badly. But where is he? What big plays does he make?
    Maybe 3 in his 7 seasons?
    I personally feel we need a new ILB there who can be an 8-year starter from day-one. They're found every year in the draft and you don't have to use a #5 overall pick to get him (like Hawk).

    IMO, this is a do-or-die season for Dom Capers.
    Getting torched by Adrian Peterson is acceptable.
    But the week of preparation for Colin Kaepernick and the result, that was historically terrible.
    He'd started about 8 games before that so there was plenty of film on him.
    And he didn't do anything near that against Atlanta or Baltimore after our game.
    Losing happens, but the defense cannot be embarrassed like that. Compete like men.
     
  25. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Nothing you posted justifies your statement that the defense slipped from 2011 to 2012. Yes, Kaepernick embarrassed the Packers defense but the Falcons and Ravens went to school on that game. In another thread there was criticism of McCarthy for sending the coaching staff to Texas A&M to learn how they defend the read option. But a jsonline blog notes the Ravens did the same thing two weeks before the Super Bowl, so apparently they weren’t sure they were prepared for it. That’s not an excuse for how badly the Packers got embarrassed but remember the 2011 defense: They were embarrassed plenty too. And IMO there’s no question progress was made on defense last year.
     

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