How is it that Capers still has a job with the Green Bay Packers?

JBlood

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Raji is back in the middle, where he was when drafted, and performed well. He appears to again be a force in the middle. It begs the question: why was he moved outside? Could it be possible the defensive coordinator made a mistake?
 

TJV

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Raji is back in the middle, where he was when drafted, and performed well. He appears to again be a force in the middle. It begs the question: why was he moved outside? Could it be possible the defensive coordinator made a mistake?
I don't think so. IMO Raji lacked motivation and Pickett was better at NT because of it. And remember, Raji lost his job as one of two rushers on the DL in the 2-4-5 - he didn't have any excuse for that.
 

PikeBadger

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I don't think so. IMO Raji lacked motivation and Pickett was better at NT because of it. And remember, Raji lost his job as one of two rushers on the DL in the 2-4-5 - he didn't have any excuse for that.
Pickett was very tough in the middle in the first half of several seasons. I think he was a guy that should have been on a lower snap count so he could maintain that level through the entire season. It would have helped if both he and Raji would have taken better care of themselves in those off seasons as well.
 
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Raji is back in the middle, where he was when drafted, and performed well. He appears to again be a force in the middle. It begs the question: why was he moved outside? Could it be possible the defensive coordinator made a mistake?

Raji had a terrible season in 2011 playing nose tackle. He was moved to defensive end because he didn´t perform at the nose.
 

Pkrjones

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Raji is back in the middle, where he was when drafted, and performed well. He appears to again be a force in the middle...
Keep in mind that Seattle's O-Line is nothing to write home about this year. Their starting OC is an UDFA from Western Michigan (in '12) & a De Pere native. I love the push that the D-line has going, so far, but I think Raji needs a few more solid games before he's back to being a force.
 

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Even in 2010 the Packers' front 7 ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league against the run; and they've not improved since that time by DVOA. It hasn't changed with raji in the middle or with him outside. But he has looked more like the 2010 model than later, at least early. Whether the front will be any better than the last 5 years remains to be seen. To paraphrase Harrison Smith "if you can't stop the run, you can't do anything"
 

JBlood

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And the 2-4-5 is an ideal way to give control of the line of scrimmage to the offense, there by abandoning the most important principle in football.
 
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Even in 2010 the Packers' front 7 ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league against the run; and they've not improved since that time by DVOA. It hasn't changed with raji in the middle or with him outside.

I've always liked Football Outsiders and their DVOA rankings but I was surprised to find out that the Packers run defense actually dropped from 31st after week 1 to last place after playing the Seahawks. Doesn't make any sense to me.
 
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I've always liked Football Outsiders and their DVOA rankings but I was surprised to find out that the Packers run defense actually dropped from 31st after week 1 to last place after playing the Seahawks. Doesn't make any sense to me.
Lynch was bottled up but Wilson went 78 yards on 10 carries. Team total: 119 yards on 25 carries for a 4.8 yd. average. That's not very good on paper whether it's a DVOA black box spreadsheet or a plain old calculator tape.
 
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Lynch was bottled up but Wilson went 78 yards on 10 carries. Team total: 119 yards on 25 carries for a 4.8 yd. average. That's not very good on paper whether it's a DVOA black box spreadsheet or a plain old calculator tape.

While it's true these stats aren't great Football Outsiders take pride in analyzing those numbers based on the situation. Overall, I think the run defense made a good job vs. the Seahawks.
 
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HardRightEdge

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While it's true these stats aren't great Football Outsiders take pride in analyzing those numbers based on the situation. Overall, I think the run defense made a good job vs. the Seahawks.
I agree that the run defense did a good job against Seattle. That's why I said "on paper".

So what conclusion do you draw if FO dropped the Packers from 31 to 32 when your eyes tell you they did they a good job in week 2?

Are your eyes lying or is this a case of d*mn statistics?

First, Wilson did most of his damage with his legs on scrambles, not called runs. So, statistical failings fall as much to the pass defense's ability to control the scramble as to the run defense per se.

Second, adjustments to the nickel D contain and personnel prevented Wilson from doing serious late game damage with his legs. Nonetheless, the value of his runs during the last 3 Seattle possessions after they took the 17-13 lead were of high value in the DVOA methodology:

7 yards - first down
7 yards
-2 yards
13 yards - first down
6 yards

However, all of these yards were gained in Seattle territory. Further, the evident strategy was to make this guy beat the Packers with his legs, shutting off the downfield passes of the infamous 5 minutes while limiting his runs to grind-it-out short pass substitutes.
 
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I agree that the run defense did a good job against Seattle. That's why I said "on paper".

So what conclusion do you draw if FO dropped the Packers from 31 to 32 when your eyes tell you they did they a good job in week 2?

Are your eyes lying or is this a case of d*mn statistics?

I would categorize this is a case of d*amn statistics. While I get that no stat is perfect I expected Football Outsiders DVOA to be closer to the eye test (at least on this one).
 

PackerDNA

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With all due respect, captainWIMM-I don't intend this as a slap at you or anyone else who cites stats or sites such as PFF- I just think it's overdone.
Stats are fun and have they're place. But I trust what I see. I know the game, and watch plays and players to draw my own conclusions.
Here's a fun example. Can't remember the exact game or year- it was a Raiders game and they sucked; yeah, that narrows down the year,huh?- anyway. The Raiders were down 27-0 at half, and in the second half, in an effort to keep the game relevant to viewers, Simms noted it wasn't hopeless for the Raiders, after all they were 2nd in the NFL vs the pass. Well yeah. When you're usually behind by 3 or more TD's, teams don't need to wing it around the yard against you as much.
In this game, the Raiders opponent threw the ball 3 times in the 2nd half, competing one for 5 yards.
It's all perspective.
 
D

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With all due respect, captainWIMM-I don't intend this as a slap at you or anyone else who cites stats or sites such as PFF- I just think it's overdone.
Stats are fun and have they're place. But I trust what I see. I know the game, and watch plays and players to draw my own conclusions.
Here's a fun example. Can't remember the exact game or year- it was a Raiders game and they sucked; yeah, that narrows down the year,huh?- anyway. The Raiders were down 27-0 at half, and in the second half, in an effort to keep the game relevant to viewers, Simms noted it wasn't hopeless for the Raiders, after all they were 2nd in the NFL vs the pass. Well yeah. When you're usually behind by 3 or more TD's, teams don't need to wing it around the yard against you as much.
In this game, the Raiders opponent threw the ball 3 times in the 2nd half, competing one for 5 yards.
It's all perspective.

There's no doubt the eye test is the most important thing when talking about football. There are some sites doing a great job coming up with innovative stats though. These numbers are especially helpful comparing the Packers and their players to other teams in the league cause I don't have the time to watch every single NFL game.
 

PackerDNA

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There's no doubt the eye test is the most important thing when talking about football. There are some sites doing a great job coming up with innovative stats though. These numbers are especially helpful comparing the Packers and their players to other teams in the league cause I don't have the time to watch every single NFL game.

Fair enough, my friend.
Also, I appreciate all the time effort and great work you put in for this site.
Rock on, Captain.
 
D

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Stat

2005 ? Pack def was #1 vs the pass..

But was 4-12?

Yeah good def

Total yards allowed isn't a good indicator for a team's performance. The Packers passing defense was ranked 25th in opponent passer rating allowed and 24th in DVOA vs. the pass that season with is pretty accurate IMO.
 

longtimefan

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Total yards allowed isn't a good indicator for a team's performance. The Packers passing defense was ranked 25th in opponent passer rating allowed and 24th in DVOA vs. the pass that season with is pretty accurate IMO.
That was my point....sometimes a stat looks good but it doesn't get you to a good record
 

Joe Nor Cal Packer

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Raji is back in the middle, where he was when drafted, and performed well. He appears to again be a force in the middle. It begs the question: why was he moved outside? Could it be possible the defensive coordinator made a mistake?
I've always wondered about moving him outside. On passing downs with a drop back, he explodes and makes a straight line to the QB. I'm not sure how effective he is against the run. Regardless, I'm glad he's back where he belongs at NT.
 

Joe Nor Cal Packer

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Raji had a terrible season in 2011 playing nose tackle. He was moved to defensive end because he didn´t perform at the nose.
Captain what do you think caused the drop off between 2010 and 2011? He was still a relatively young player and I don't get why he regressed so much. Did he get lazy in the off season after the SB win? It seems that when he puts his mind to it he can get in the shape required to play the position well. He dropped weight this year, his conditioning seems improved, and he's playing well again even though it's early in the season.
 

Joe Nor Cal Packer

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While it's true these stats aren't great Football Outsiders take pride in analyzing those numbers based on the situation. Overall, I think the run defense made a good job vs. the Seahawks.
Agreed. They contained Lynch and made some adjustments for Wilson. I'm surprised they rank last. I'll be looking for consistency when they play KC. Although I think this defense is probably better at stopping a power runner like Lynch than a back like Forte who just outran the D line, even when they dropped a safety. But they kept Wilson from doing major damage, and I'd like to see them keep Charles under 100 yards. We'll see on Monday night.
 
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I'm not sure how effective he is against the run.

Raji has been pretty good both rushing the passer and stopping the run over the first two games.

Captain what do you think caused the drop off between 2010 and 2011? He was still a relatively young player and I don't get why he regressed so much. Did he get lazy in the off season after the SB win? It seems that when he puts his mind to it he can get in the shape required to play the position well. He dropped weight this year, his conditioning seems improved, and he's playing well again even though it's early in the season.

Raji has all the physical tools to be a dominant defensive lineman if he's putting 100% effort into it. I think he wasn't ready to put the necessary work into it after winning the Super Bowl anymore and only realized he had to change his attitude when no team offered him a huge contract once he hit free agency.
 

Joe Nor Cal Packer

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With all due respect, captainWIMM-I don't intend this as a slap at you or anyone else who cites stats or sites such as PFF- I just think it's overdone.
Stats are fun and have they're place. But I trust what I see. I know the game, and watch plays and players to draw my own conclusions.
Here's a fun example. Can't remember the exact game or year- it was a Raiders game and they sucked; yeah, that narrows down the year,huh?- anyway. The Raiders were down 27-0 at half, and in the second half, in an effort to keep the game relevant to viewers, Simms noted it wasn't hopeless for the Raiders, after all they were 2nd in the NFL vs the pass. Well yeah. When you're usually behind by 3 or more TD's, teams don't need to wing it around the yard against you as much.
In this game, the Raiders opponent threw the ball 3 times in the 2nd half, competing one for 5 yards.
It's all perspective.
Back to Twain's point on the three types of lies 1 lies 2 damned lies and 3 statistics! Ok that's extreme and stats have their place. The danger is when someone comes up with an opinion or "point of fact" and then finds the stats to back up the position. I don't really see that on this forum. But stats can't replace good judgement or common sense. I'm sure there is a stat somewhere that supports Bellichik calling a TO at the end of the last SB. He didn't of course when almost everyone, including Pete Carroll, were certain the TO was coming. That caused Pete and the Seahags to panic, forcing a very bad decision by Wilson. Statistically, he probably should have called a TO. So I prefer intelligence and reasonable risk taking to pure statistics. And without context, stats are meaningless anyway.

With all that said I am grateful for the posters here who do provide statistics and usually context. I don't have the time to look that stuff up!
 

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