How is it that Capers still has a job with the Green Bay Packers?

[HardRightEdge]

I don't think so. IMO Raji lacked motivation and Pickett was better at NT because of it. And remember, Raji lost his job as one of two rushers on the DL in the 2-4-5 - he didn't have any excuse for that.

Busari J. Raji to this day has never lost his job as a nickel/dime DT.

Raji's career defensive snap counts are as follows according to various sources. Other sources may vary somewhat, but not appreciably:

2009 - 53.5 per game...that's gotta be 80%+
2010 - 55.5 per game...again 80%+
2011 - 85%
2012 - 46.8 per game - figure 70%+ (Pro Football Focus rated him the 7th. best 3-4 DEs in the league for this season, believe it or not)
2013 - 58% (Pro Football Focus rated him 2nd. worst among 3-4 DEs, which is easy to believe)
2015 - 62%

Considering Capers has run base D a fairly consistent 25 - 30% over the years, even at Raji's lightest work load in 2013 he would have taken around 1/2 the nickel/dime DT snaps.

The move of Raji to DE was a 2-fer in my opinion. Pickett had become exceptionally slow and was no longer fit for DE. He was still a rock pile, so NT made sense for him. Raji wasn't handling NT very well once Capers went to fewer offset gapping fronts and jet rushes where Raji could use his quickness...putting him at end where he had more space to work was a reasonable attempt even if it did not work out in the pass rush in 2012 and not at all in 2013.

I do think the DC made one particular mistake...playing a 340 lb. man at those exceptionally high snap counts for 4 years running.

As for 2013, there was simply no excuse. Raji turned down the $8 mil per year deal from the Packers, albeit possibly light on guarantees and heavy on the roster bonuses. He played like a guy avoiding injury and waiting around for somebody to give him that nice 2nd. contract. Of course he ended up with a 1 year / $4 mil re-prove it deal. That might have been the wake-up call, but he blew his bicep so we couldn't find out.

After signing for an even cheaper deal this year, Raji commented that he's come to realize that being a nice guy isn't enough to secure a legacy. What bubble was he living in? I guess the universal disdain for his lack of effort was a wake-up call. In any event, that bubble looks to be popped and we hope it stays that way.

If at the end of the season we can say he's returned to form, I still would not trust him with a multi-year deal.

 

[longtimefan]

Captain what do you think caused the drop off between 2010 and 2011? He was still a relatively young player and I don't get why he regressed so much. Did he get lazy in the off season after the SB win? It seems that when he puts his mind to it he can get in the shape required to play the position well. He dropped weight this year, his conditioning seems improved, and he's playing well again even though it's early in the season.

Ck your private messages by end of the day

Ty

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As for 2013, there was simply no excuse. Raji turned down the $8 mil per year deal from the Packers, albeit possibly light on guarantees and heavy on the roster bonuses.

According to Jason Wilde the Packers offer included $20 million in guaranteed money.

If at the end of the season we can say he's returned to form, I still would not trust him with a multi-year deal.

Agreed, I wouldn't feel comfortable with Thompson offering him a licrative long-term contract.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I hope BJ continues to have a Pro Bowl type of year and at the end of that year gives the Packers a really hard decision as to what to do with him contract wise. No matter what though, I don't see them tying up a lot of guaranteed money on him and would hope both sides, given his history, would be amenable to an incentive based contract. Problem with that though, is there is always some desperate team willing to shell out a big guaranteed contract based on a players top value at the top of his game.

 

[TJV]

Busari J. Raji to this day has never lost his job as a nickel/dime DT.

Here’s a jsonline story dated Oct 4, 2013:

Two, three years ago, B.J. Raji wouldn't have been cool with this. When the Green Bay Packers defense turns to nickel, to dime, he's been on the sideline. Powerless. With a chance to pad his stats — in, ahem, a contract year — the defensive end is on hold. … Through three games, there's been less Raji. He hasn't been featured as a pass rusher, giving way to Mike Daniels, Datone Jones and Mike Neal. The Packers, for now, have significantly reduced Raji's snaps. After 51 snaps in the base-heavy season opener, he has played 32 and 31 snaps. He isn't being used as a penetrating, disruptive force.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...-with-reduced-role-b99113225z1-226546761.html

 

[HardRightEdge]

According to Jason Wilde the Packers offer included $20 million in guaranteed money.

That's so crazy I'm skeptical of its veracity.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here’s a jsonline story dated Oct 4, 2013:

Just because Tyler Dunne said it does not make it true.

That assessment was based on 2 games. It is enough of an exaggeration in projecting that to the entire season as to make it patently false. 30% of snaps, give or take, are base snaps year in and year out. Raji took 58% of the total defensive snaps in 2013. He would have taken about as many snaps in nickel/dime as in base in 2013. Assuming Raji took every base snap, his typical 58% game with a typical 63 defensive snaps would equate to 19 base snaps and 18 nickel/dime snaps.

If Dunne is talking about weeks 2 and 3 against Washington and Cincy, those games involved 58 and 67 snaps by my count (passes + runs + sacks). By Dunne's count Raji had 63 snaps in those 2 games for 50% of the defensive snaps, meaningfully below his season average.

Even so, Dunne suggests these were not the base heavy games of week 1. So put 30% on the base snap count and assume Raji took all of those. That still leaves him with 12 or 13 nickel/dime snaps in each of those games. Based on Raji's season average snap count, that 12 or 13 would be at the low end for that season.

Just because Raji was not out there for every d*mn snap in 2013 as in prior seasons, and just because when he was out there in nickel/dime he didn't do anything to call attention to his presence, doesn't mean he wasn't there. Dunne said, "he isn't being used as a penetrating disruptive force." Oh, he was being used alright, he just wasn't that.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's so crazy I'm skeptical of its veracity.

Here's just one of many articles supporting the claim that Raji was offered $20 million guaranteed:

http://m.jsonline.com/sports/blogs/248749241.html

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here's just one of many articles supporting the claim that Raji was offered $20 million guaranteed:

http://m.jsonline.com/sports/blogs/248749241.html

That one references an earlier report. It could be one report from one source that gets repeated in the media echo chamber.

I don't see how a guy who played mostly base DE / nickel DT and who took something north of 70% of his teams snaps, netting zero sacks and 26 tackles in 14 games, while showing gradual decline over 2 seasons, would be offered a contract that would have made him one of the highest, if not the highest, paid 3-4 DE at the time in 2012.

It could have happened, I suppose, but it does not compute.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Back to Twain's point on the three types of lies 1 lies 2 damned lies and 3 statistics! Ok that's extreme and stats have their place. The danger is when someone comes up with an opinion or "point of fact" and then finds the stats to back up the position. I don't really see that on this forum. But stats can't replace good judgement or common sense. I'm sure there is a stat somewhere that supports Bellichik calling a TO at the end of the last SB. He didn't of course when almost everyone, including Pete Carroll, were certain the TO was coming. That caused Pete and the Seahags to panic, forcing a very bad decision by Wilson. Statistically, he probably should have called a TO. So I prefer intelligence and reasonable risk taking to pure statistics. And without context, stats are meaningless anyway.

With all that said I am grateful for the posters here who do provide statistics and usually context. I don't have the time to look that stuff up!

Stats can lie; they can also illuminate. Over his career, Lynch has been well below average scoring from the 1 yard line, while being successful on only 1 of 5 attempts in 2014.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ynch-isnt-exactly-money-from-the-1-yard-line/

 

[HardRightEdge]

I hope BJ continues to have a Pro Bowl type of year and at the end of that year gives the Packers a really hard decision as to what to do with him contract wise.

If Busari Aluma Raji, Jr. has a Pro Bowl-type year, how are the Packers going to afford both him and Daniels while trying to maintain a cap carryover war chest for the 2017 free agents? Then there's Guion, a guy the Packers wanted to lock down long term before his little incident. If he plays up to last year's impact level after he comes off suspension, that compounds the problem.

If Raji falls apart, the issue is moot.

My hope is he provides the kind of impact Jenkins provided in 2010 before departing for "greener" fields.

 

[TJV]

Just because Tyler Dunne said it does not make it true.

No it doesn't. Dunne cited stats that his snaps in nickel and dime were reduced for 2 of the first 3 games of 2013. Here's a link to a bleacherreport article written after 13 games of the 2013 season. This table is included:

Season: Pass-Rush Snaps ... Total Snaps
2010: 507...884
2011: 548...885
2012: 366...658
2013: 289 (pace)...630

The figures of 289 and 630 are estimates for the season based on the first 13 games. He actually had 225 pass-rushing attempts to that point in the season.

Overall, Raji has created just 11 pressures over 225 pass-rushing snaps, or only one pressure for every 20.5 snaps. His 11 pressures include zero sacks; in fact, Raji hasn't recorded a quarterback sack since November of 2011.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-of-packers-dl-bj-raji-during-a-contract-year

Based on these stats: His ratio of pass-rush snaps to total snaps went from a high of 61.9% in 2011, to 55.6% in '12, and to an estimated 45.9% based on the first 13 games of 2013. He saw his pass-rush snaps reduced about 47% from 2011 to 2013. IMO that's a significant, and of course justified reduction.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Busari J. Raji to this day has never lost his job as a nickel/dime DT.

Raji's career defensive snap counts are as follows according to various sources. Other sources may vary somewhat, but not appreciably:

2009 - 53.5 per game...that's gotta be 80%+
2010 - 55.5 per game...again 80%+
2011 - 85%
2012 - 46.8 per game - figure 70%+ (Pro Football Focus rated him the 7th. best 3-4 DEs in the league for this season, believe it or not)
2013 - 58% (Pro Football Focus rated him 2nd. worst among 3-4 DEs, which is easy to believe)
2015 - 62%

Considering Capers has run base D a fairly consistent 25 - 30% over the years, even at Raji's lightest work load in 2013 he would have taken around 1/2 the nickel/dime DT snaps.

The move of Raji to DE was a 2-fer in my opinion. Pickett had become exceptionally slow and was no longer fit for DE. He was still a rock pile, so NT made sense for him. Raji wasn't handling NT very well once Capers went to fewer offset gapping fronts and jet rushes where Raji could use his quickness...putting him at end where he had more space to work was a reasonable attempt even if it did not work out in the pass rush in 2012 and not at all in 2013.

I do think the DC made one particular mistake...playing a 340 lb. man at those exceptionally high snap counts for 4 years running.

As for 2013, there was simply no excuse. Raji turned down the $8 mil per year deal from the Packers, albeit possibly light on guarantees and heavy on the roster bonuses. He played like a guy avoiding injury and waiting around for somebody to give him that nice 2nd. contract. Of course he ended up with a 1 year / $4 mil re-prove it deal. That might have been the wake-up call, but he blew his bicep so we couldn't find out.

After signing for an even cheaper deal this year, Raji commented that he's come to realize that being a nice guy isn't enough to secure a legacy. What bubble was he living in? I guess the universal disdain for his lack of effort was a wake-up call. In any event, that bubble looks to be popped and we hope it stays that way.

If at the end of the season we can say he's returned to form, I still would not trust him with a multi-year deal.

Goo info.

The only thing I would add is that the majority of good dlinemen play 80%+ of their team's snaps. If Raji had a conditioning issue with that much playing time then that's really on Raji. Plus, what other options did Capers have? You gotta replace Raji with someone when you take him off the field. 2012 was a wasteland on the dline. The options outside of Pickett and Raji were a rookie Mike Daniels, rookie Jerel Worthy, oft-injured Mike Neal, CJ Wilson and Phillip Merling. 2011 actually makes 2012 look like a terrific year since Caper's options on the dline were Raji, Pickett, Wilson and Howard Green. As terrible as Raji was those years, it was still probably better than watching CJ Wilson or Howard Green play 20+ snaps a game.

 

[adambr2]

I agree there's no way we can give Raji a long-term deal that isn't loaded with incentives and low on guaranteed money, something he probably wouldn't accept if he has a big breakout year. He simply can't be trusted to maintain his current level of motivation.

The good thing is someone will and so we may be able to parlay 3.5M this year into a big impact NT for 2015 and a 3rd round comp pick in 2017.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The only thing I would add is that the majority of good dlinemen play 80%+ of their team's snaps. If Raji had a conditioning issue with that much playing time then that's really on Raji.

Raji led all nose tackles in snaps played both in the 2010 and '11 seasons, so it's possible the Packers played him too much at that time.

 

[HardRightEdge]

No it doesn't. Dunne cited stats that his snaps in nickel and dime were reduced for 2 of the first 3 games of 2013. Here's a link to a bleacherreport article written after 13 games of the 2013 season. This table is included:

Season: Pass-Rush Snaps ... Total Snaps
2010: 507...884
2011: 548...885
2012: 366...658
2013: 289 (pace)...630

The figures of 289 and 630 are estimates for the season based on the first 13 games. He actually had 225 pass-rushing attempts to that point in the season. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-of-packers-dl-bj-raji-during-a-contract-year

Based on these stats: His ratio of pass-rush snaps to total snaps went from a high of 61.9% in 2011, to 55.6% in '12, and to an estimated 45.9% based on the first 13 games of 2013. He saw his pass-rush snaps reduced about 47% from 2011 to 2013. IMO that's a significant, and of course justified reduction.

Or looked at another way, in 2013 opponents attempted 539 passes and were sacked 44 times for a total of 583 passing downs. Using the 289 "pace" through 13 games, we get Raji on the field for 50% of the opponents' pass snaps.

This is consistent with my earlier extrapolation that he was on the field for around half of the nickel/dime snaps.

Clearly, your earlier statement, "Raji lost his job as one of two rushers on the DL in the 2-4-5", and Dunne's statement, "he hasn't been featured as a pass rusher" are exaggerations, which was my original point.

That his work load was cut back from excessively high numbers, whether by plan or as a byproduct of substandard performance, was never in question.

I reiterate, Dunne's statement, "He isn't being used as a penetrating, disruptive force" is enough of an exaggeration so as to be false if one chooses to use that assessment as a characterization of the season with respect to "use", though the lack of penetration and disruption was obvious to everyone.

 

[TJV]

Again, Raji's pass rush snaps were reduced by almost half from 2011 to 2013. He went from being on the field in pass rush situations about 62% to about 46%. His number of snaps in pass rush and his percentage of those snaps vs. his total snaps decreased from 2011 to 2013 significantly. And that happened because he earned those fewer snaps. He didn't lose his job but he lost a lot of snaps in nickel and dime. And BTW, I don't have time right now to look into it, but my guess is this

This is consistent with my earlier extrapolation that he was on the field for around half of the nickel/dime snaps.

is not true for the 2013 season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The only thing I would add is that the majority of good dlinemen play 80%+ of their team's snaps.

According to FO, only 12 NFL D-Linemen took 80% or more of their team's defensive snaps in 2014. So far this season through 2 games, only 7 DL have topped that mark. You can query it here:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts

And I don't think you'll find many 340 pounders in that group.

Even among smaller 4-3 DTs/3-4 DEs, relatively speaking, for 2014 we see Daniels at 62.5% (about 3 snaps per game more than Raji in 2013), Aaron Donald at 67.1%, or Kyle Williams at 66.1%.

As for the idea that 340 lb.+ men with big guts are not properly conditioned, you'd also have to say that about about world champion Sumo wrestlers or world champion heavyweight weight lifters. These guys are built for brief moments of explosive power, not endurance. The fact that Raji could play multiple successive seasons at over 80% is a little ridiculous.

That's not to say Raji was properly conditioned in that dreadful 2013 season, but you can't tell by looking at him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Again, Raji's pass rush snaps were reduced by almost half from 2011 to 2013. He went from being on the field in pass rush situations about 62% to about 46%. His number of snaps in pass rush and his percentage of those snaps vs. his total snaps decreased from 2011 to 2013 significantly. And that happened because he earned those fewer snaps. He didn't lose his job but he lost a lot of snaps in nickel and dime. And BTW, I don't have time right now to look into it, but my guess is this is not true for the 2013 season.

I'll stand by what I posted earlier...that his snap count came down significantly was never in question, however the statement that he "lost his job" as a nickel/dime pass rusher is enough of an exaggeration so as to be false.

 

[Joe Nor Cal Packer]

I'll stand by what I posted earlier...that his snap count came down significantly was never in question, however the statement that he "lost his job" as a nickel/dime pass rusher is enough of an exaggeration so as to be false.

I would interpret "losing his job" to mean he was playing either zero snaps or only a few in situations of need - to rest a player when there were no other options. Now, that's just how I would read it. But someone playing close to half of the snaps (46% or whatever) hasn't "lost his job" IMO. Maybe he lost his job as a starter, but then that needs to be qualifed. Stats alone rarely, if ever, are enough. there's always some subjective qualification. Good point HRE.

Case in point, Damarius Randall, as a first round draft pick, would usually be expected to start. He isn't starting, at least not yet. Does that mean he's "lost his job"? Hardly.

Raji wasn't playing well when his snap count was reduced, but to suggest he lost his job is a bit misleading. Another example where statistics can "prove" whatever point a poster is trying to make. And to me, that's a misuse of statistics.

 

[Joe Nor Cal Packer]

Here's just one of many articles supporting the claim that Raji was offered $20 million guaranteed:

http://m.jsonline.com/sports/blogs/248749241.html

Thanks for finding this blast from the past. I remember in mid-season he was offered $8 mil/year on I think a 4 year contract and he and/or his agent turned it down. I did not know it included $20 mil guaranteed. Wow, talking about TT dodging a bullet.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Raji led all nose tackles in snaps played both in the 2010 and '11 seasons, so it's possible the Packers played him too much at that time.

Vince Wilfork played 135 more snaps than Raji in 2011 (only looking at regular season). Ngata played 10 fewer snaps than Raji. Now, I'm not saying that that proves that big men play as many snaps as Raji because those two are very good at their jobs. However, Raji was REALLY bad at his job in 2011. So maybe the snaps affected him but the number of snaps was a drop in the bucket of reasons that he played so badly.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

According to FO, only 12 NFL D-Linemen took 80% or more of their team's defensive snaps in 2014. So far this season through 2 games, only 7 DL have topped that mark. You can query it here:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts

And I don't think you'll find many 340 pounders in that group.

Even among smaller 4-3 DTs/3-4 DEs, relatively speaking, for 2014 we see Daniels at 62.5% (about 3 snaps per game more than Raji in 2013), Aaron Donald at 67.1%, or Kyle Williams at 66.1%.

As for the idea that 340 lb.+ men with big guts are not properly conditioned, you'd also have to say that about about world champion Sumo wrestlers or world champion heavyweight weight lifters. These guys are built for brief moments of explosive power, not endurance. The fact that Raji could play multiple successive seasons at over 80% is a little ridiculous.

That's not to say Raji was properly conditioned in that dreadful 2013 season, but you can't tell by looking at him.

As I mentioned in the post above, there are players in Raji's weight range that played similar numbers of snaps. Now, as I mentioned, I'm not saying the number of snaps had no effect, just that the magnitude of that particular factor probably wasn't too large.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Vince Wilfork played 135 more snaps than Raji in 2011 (only looking at regular season). Ngata played 10 fewer snaps than Raji. Now, I'm not saying that that proves that big men play as many snaps as Raji because those two are very good at their jobs. However, Raji was REALLY bad at his job in 2011. So maybe the snaps affected him but the number of snaps was a drop in the bucket of reasons that he played so badly.

All other defensive tackles that had more snaps than Raji during the 2010 and ´11 seasons played in a 4-3 scheme. I think him lacking the necessary work ethic was the primary reason for his terrible season from 2011-13 although it´s possible his high number of snaps factored into it as well.

 

[TJV]

Raji clearly lacked motivation in the past. It wasn’t because of his weight and it wasn’t because of the number of snaps and it wasn't because of his position change. Now, I should have written, Raji lost significant snaps in the nickel and dime instead of “he lost of his job”. But then, just as ‘if a tree falls in the forest…’, if a DL is on the field and never records a stat is he really out there? The context of my remark and the reason this was brought up at all was to point out to those who want to use Raji playing at DE instead of NT as an excuse for his dismal play. He lost all those snaps in the nickel and dime because of his unmotivated play, not because he was playing out of position. And that point stands.