GB Draft Trends - Who Is Left For Targets...

[tynimiller]

Similar to what @Dantés has hinted at and even fleshed out at various positions Paul Bretl of course stole all his content from the boards here for his latest article (j/k) where he does the same exercise essentially to predict who are the most likely GB candidates for first round picks based on positional tendency, Age and RAS.

He did use The Draft Networks Top 50 for his starting point which of course nothing perfect but grabbing the top 50 should eliminate for the most part majority of candidates many consider first round options.

Link for article fully at end of post but I'll summarize.

#1 Cut - Eliminate all the non-premiere positions seeing as how iDL, EDGE, CB, OT, S and QB are the only positions the Packers have selected since 2009.

#2 Eliminate Old Prospects - Cut any prospect from first round consideration that were 22 and older. Outside of Stokes every first round pick since 2015 has been 21 or younger.

Below is the list of candidates that made the cut after #1...I've then crossed out any that got cut by #2/Age criteria before we move on to #3.

Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan
Ickey Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Derek Stingley, CB, LSU
Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia
Devonte Wyatt, IDL, Georgia
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Drake London, WR, USC
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
David Ojabo, Edge, Michigan
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue
Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia
DeMarvin Leal, IDL, Texas A&M
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Perrion Winfrey, IDL, Oklahoma
Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
David Bell, WR, Purdue
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
John Metchie, WR, Alabama
Cameron Thomas, Edge, San Diego State
Christian Watson, WR, NDSU
Logan Hall, IDL, Houston
Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State
George Pickens, WR, Georgia

#3 Their RAS score criteria of being 8.00 minimum. *Paul in the article also crosses off any Top 10 prospect as assuredly they'll be gone when the Packers pick.

That leaves:

Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
David Ojabo, Edge, Michigan
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Logan Hall, IDL, Houston
George Pickens, WR, Georgia

If I'm honest...give me two of these prospects out of our first round (not one being Ojabo due to injury) and I would not be sad at all. IMO all of these except Olave I think has more than a 50% chance of being there for us at #22....and probably 2 or so will be there at 28 possibly.

Article: https://dairylandexpress.com/2022/0...-packers-1st-round-targets-past-draft-trends/

 

[Schultz]

Yeah that would be nice. I rank those 7 guys for the Packers
1. Olave
2. Hill
3. Pickens
4. McDuffie
5. Karlaftis
6. Elam
7. Hall

 

[realitybytez]

if we take ojabo, i will cry.

i would love to get mcduffie and pickens from that list.

 

[tynimiller]

if we take ojabo, i will cry.

i would love to get mcduffie and pickens from that list.

Ojabo isn't worthy of crying if you think he isn't going to be good - everything says he is a special freak athlete similar to Gary, but just won't be of any added value in the present and is a long play card. Without his injury he was clearly getting draft prior to our 22 pick IMO - so he is still a top 10/15 level prospect that injury only dropped him. Which I'm anti-injury guys personally, BUT if Gute is ever going to do such a thing the year to do it is when you have two firsts.

If you told me to pick any two McDuffie and Pickens or Karlaftis and Pickens are neck to neck for me. I actually think McDuffie has less of a chance slipping to us than Karlaftis does.

Really there isn't a bad prospect in that list...

 

[tynimiller]

I will say if the age thing is ever going to change from tendency this is the year to do it, and I'd be curious to circle back and include 22 year olds and see what list of names that adds back in. Covid year just made this draft so freaking old...

 

[tynimiller]

The age thing I would elevate a touch to include anyone still 22 by the start of TC in the fall...

Matter of fact if you made the age cut off say 22 by August Training Camp that would add back in:

Jahan Dotson - He just turned 22 in March of this year so he'd be 22 in fall of course still
Treylon Burks - March turned 22 as well like Dotson.
Lewis Cine - Will turn 23 in October
Roger McCreary - Just turned 22 in February
Kyler Gordon - Will turn 23 in December
Cameron Thomas - Will turn 23 next January

Only adds 6 additional guys to consider, BUT McCreary, Burks, Dotson all fail the RAS part so just three to add in Cine, Gordon with Cameron Thomas as possibly as he didn't test at combine.

 

[Dantés]

I would not cut out the 22 year olds. They literally just drafted one in the 1st round.

 

[tynimiller]

I would not cut out the 22 year olds. They literally just drafted one in the 1st round.

Yup which is why I circled back in the post above. It doesn't add many that meet all the thresholds however if you say still 22 by TC, if you said 22 by next draft that would add a few more.

 

[Dantés]

Yup which is why I circled back in the post above. It doesn't add many that meet all the thresholds however if you say still 22 by TC, if you said 22 by next draft that would add a few more.

In think draft, I would personally consider 23 years olds in the first round if they aren't going to turn 24 during their rookie seasons, but they'd have to be super clean otherwise.

The example that comes to mind is Trevor Penning. He will turn 23 next month. I don't know if they see tackle as a 1st round need or if they plan to move Jenkins over there long term, but if they wanted one I would be totally fine with him being the pick at #22.

 

[tynimiller]

In think draft, I would personally consider 23 years olds in the first round if they aren't going to turn 24 during their rookie seasons, but they'd have to be super clean otherwise.

The example that comes to mind is Trevor Penning. He will turn 23 next month. I don't know if they see tackle as a 1st round need or if they plan to move Jenkins over there long term, but if they wanted one I would be totally fine with him being the pick at #22.

I concur, Penning is a guy I leave the tendencies for if he drops to us, he absolutely shouldn't in my opinion, but if a QB and WR run happens it is possible.

 

[realitybytez]

Ojabo isn't worthy of crying if you think he isn't going to be good - everything says he is a special freak athlete similar to Gary

i'm sick and tired of the packers using first round picks on injured and/or developmental players. i still say gary was not a good pick. one would expect a top twelve draft pick to be a day one starter - not a third year starter.

 

[Dantés]

i'm sick and tired of the packers using first round picks on injured and/or developmental players. i still say gary was not a good pick. one would expect a top twelve draft pick to be a day one starter - not a third year starter.

I'm thoroughly out on Ojabo.

However, if someone is still saying that Gary was a bad pick at this point, that's just another way of saying that they refuse to let reality interfere with their initial reaction.

 

[tynimiller]

i'm sick and tired of the packers using first round picks on injured and/or developmental players. i still say gary was not a good pick. one would expect a top twelve draft pick to be a day one starter - not a third year starter.

LOL Gary was not a bad pick, sorry I just cannot agree to that even a tiny bit. If someone expected him to start above Smith, Smith and Fackrell his rookie year you're crazy...I can get not liking the pick from a need perspective but Gary was absolutely the definition of a good pick.

Where are you going with this "developmental player" stuff?

2021 - First Stokes and Second Myers round picks - both instant starters for GB
2020 - First Love (fits your statement) and Second round pick Dillon instant day 1 starter level, especially given nature of NFL, we just didn't need him year 1
2019 - Gary (somewhat fits but was capable) / Savage starter and second rounder Jenkins starter
2018 - Jaire Alexander instant starter and Josh Jackson was just a pure bust even "experts" thought was a steal

GUTE TAKING OVER

2017 - NO FIRSTS - Kevin King started for us year 1 and Josh Jones did nothing...rough top draft class
2016 - Kenny Clark DAY 1 BABY, Jason Spriggs (Josh Jackson level bust)
2015 - Damarious Randall started 9 games played in most and at times looked good...never grew....second rounder Rollins similar story to a lesser degree
2014 - HaHa started year 1 and Davante Adams in the second.

So overall with top picks:

GUTE ERA
First rounders have given us - Stokes, Love, Gary, Jaire in Gute's era gave us two year one starters, one that arguably could have been if not for the roster present (Gary) and one guy that truly is your injured/developmental player pick.
Second Rounders have given us - Myers, Dillon, Jenkins and Josh Jackson...which gave us almost similar results two year one starters (Myers/Jenkins), one fully capable but not needed with roster at time (Dillon) and one just pure bust.

75% of Gute's first and second rounders have not been injured or developmental type players.

Looking four years prior to Gute:

First rounders gave us - Clark, Randall and HaHa - One stud year one starter (Clark), another year one starter in Haha (don't go grading out if he grew or whatever that isn't the discussion) and an arguable bust in Randall...although he did start in year one some.
Second Rounders gave us - King, Jones, Spriggs, Rollins, Adams - King was really the only year one starter....two busts (Spriggs/Jones)...Rollins fits your developmental player and Adams was just not getting time with the roster present.

2 out of 3 on first rounders don't fit your claim...and if we include just pure busts second rounders only 2 out of 5 don't fit.


Clearly the trend especially lately in Gute's era has been anything but drafting injured/developmental players....and unless memory fails me I don't believe ANY of these guys were injured at draft time....could completely be wrong there.

 

[realitybytez]

I'm thoroughly out on Ojabo.

However, if someone is still saying that Gary was a bad pick at this point, that's just another way of saying that they refuse to let reality interfere with their initial reaction.

you are certainly entitled to your opinion (as am i). i believe it is extremely poor value to draft a developmental project in the first twelve picks of the draft. EDIT: except for qbs. gary had very little contribution in his first two seasons. that's two out of five years of his rookie contract wasted. did he come on in his third year? yes. but if have to wait three years for your top twelve pick to become worthy of being a full-time starter, you have not done your job (imho).

 

[Dantés]

you are certainly entitled to your opinion (as am i). i believe it is extremely poor value to draft a developmental project in the first twelve picks of the draft. gary had very little contribution in his first two seasons. that's two out of five years of his rookie contract wasted. did he come on in his third year? yes. but if have to wait three years for your top twelve pick to become worthy of being a full-time starter, you have not done your job (imho).

I disagree with your assessment of the first two seasons. Granted, he was a developmental rotational guy in year one, but by the end of year two he was playing more than half the snaps and was arguably performing at the highest level of anyone on the defense, including in the playoffs.

Essentially, he's been a high value asset for half of his three year career and his best is still in front of him.

This is not atypical for players drafted in that range.

 

[Schultz]

I will say if the age thing is ever going to change from tendency this is the year to do it, and I'd be curious to circle back and include 22 year olds and see what list of names that adds back in. Covid year just made this draft so freaking old...

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[tynimiller]

you are certainly entitled to your opinion (as am i). i believe it is extremely poor value to draft a developmental project in the first twelve picks of the draft. EDIT: except for qbs. gary had very little contribution in his first two seasons. that's two out of five years of his rookie contract wasted. did he come on in his third year? yes. but if have to wait three years for your top twelve pick to become worthy of being a full-time starter, you have not done your job (imho).

Gary is a fixture of the GB future...I'm sorry but I'm so incredibly happy you weren't the GM writing names down in this case. It is rumored Gute had Gary as high as a top 5 prospect that in our staff's opinion had ZERO reason to even still be there, you take that pick everyday of the week and twice on sunday.

Folks fail to remember Gary was behind two Smiths and Fackrell who just had an INSANELY good year (and has proven quite a capable OLB in the league since leaving)...no rookie was coming in lighting the stat sheet up.

 

[Schultz]

I disagree with your assessment of the first two seasons. Granted, he was a developmental rotational guy in year one, but by the end of year two he was playing more than half the snaps and was arguably performing at the highest level of anyone on the defense, including in the playoffs.

Essentially, he's been a high value asset for half of his three year career and his best is still in front of him.

This is not atypical for players drafted in that range.

Stop with the facts.

 

[Schultz]

Gary is a fixture of the GB future...I'm sorry but I'm so incredibly happy you weren't the GM writing names down in this case. It is rumored Gute had Gary as high as a top 5 prospect that in our staff's opinion had ZERO reason to even still be there, you take that pick everyday of the week and twice on sunday.

Folks fail to remember Gary was behind two Smiths and Fackrell who just had an INSANELY good year (and has proven quite a capable OLB in the league since leaving)...no rookie was coming in lighting the stat sheet up.

I have to disagree. I believe the draft is over by Sunday.

 

[realitybytez]

but by the end of year two he was playing more than half the snaps and was arguably performing at the highest level of anyone on the defense, including in the playoffs.

in his first season, he played 23% of the defensive snaps.

so in year two, in the final five games of the season he had a total of 10 solo tackles and nine assists. two solo tackles were sacks and he shared a sack on one of his assists. also in the last five games of the season he played 58.1%, 28.4%, 50.7%, 54.5%, and 40.0% of the defensive snaps. he actually played a higher percentage of snaps in a few early games. for the season, he played 44% of the defensive snaps.

in his third season, he only played 63% of the defensive snaps.

if after three full seasons, your first round pick is still not playing at least 80% of the available snaps, that is not a great pick.

 

[tynimiller]

in his first season, he played 23% of the defensive snaps.

so in year two, in the final five games of the season he had a total of 10 solo tackles and nine assists. two solo tackles were sacks and he shared a sack on one of his assists. also in the last five games of the season he played 58.1%, 28.4%, 50.7%, 54.5%, and 40.0% of the defensive snaps. he actually played a higher percentage of snaps in a few early games. for the season, he played 44% of the defensive snaps.

in his third season, he only played 63% of the defensive snaps.

if after three full seasons, your first round pick is still not playing at least 80% of the available snaps, that is not a great pick.

I'm struggling with this reasoning...you are aware that keeping Smith and Gary's snap counts under 65% was very intentional by the staff? Barry is not one to over snap edge guys - especially so when the ranks are getting depleted as they were for us last year and they were our only two healthy guys most of the year.

By your standard Nick Bosa not a good pick.
Ed Oliver not a good pick.
Vita Vea not a good pick.
Marcus Davenport not a good pick.
Bradley Chubb not a good pick.

Myles Garrett was barely a good pick...
Kenny Clark barely makes the cut...

Joey Bosa didn't make it his third year...nor the last two...

 

[realitybytez]

you are aware that keeping Smith and Gary's snap counts under 65% was very intentional by the staff?

no, i wasn't aware. mainly because in the two prior years the top two edge guys averaged over 80%. but i'll take your word for it since that was barry's first year.

 

[Dantés]

in his first season, he played 23% of the defensive snaps.

so in year two, in the final five games of the season he had a total of 10 solo tackles and nine assists. two solo tackles were sacks and he shared a sack on one of his assists. also in the last five games of the season he played 58.1%, 28.4%, 50.7%, 54.5%, and 40.0% of the defensive snaps. he actually played a higher percentage of snaps in a few early games. for the season, he played 44% of the defensive snaps.

in his third season, he only played 63% of the defensive snaps.

if after three full seasons, your first round pick is still not playing at least 80% of the available snaps, that is not a great pick.

Like I said, we agree that year one was basically development and rotation.

In the 2nd half of year 2, he played about half the snaps. If you watched him during that stretch, he was playing really strong football. It was capped by a stellar playoff performance against the Rams.

If those were your only two contentions, I might just assume we are remembering things differently. But criticizing his 2021 is ridiculous.

He played over 70% of the snaps in ten games. He missed one game, and played sparingly in the meaningless week 17 contest. The two other low points in terms of snap counts were week 10 (57%) when he got hurt and week 12 (53%) when he was coming back from injury. Overall, his snap count was virtually identical to Preston Smith's.

When healthy, he was a 70% snap player, and a very effective one at a premium position. Do you know how many Packers defensive front players are on the field for 80% of the snaps on a consistent basis? 1-- Kenny Clark. And that's actually a bad thing, not a good thing.

You're judging him by an unrealistic standard.

 

[tynimiller]

no, i wasn't aware. mainly because in the two prior years the top two edge guys averaged over 80%. but i'll take your word for it since that was barry's first year.

Dantes outlined why his dipped nearly below 60% and honestly Preston's was similar reasons...Barry though it appeared even when both healthy had a target of around 70% or so - of course in big games they will and would play more.

 

[realitybytez]

Like I said, we agree that year one was basically development and rotation.

In the 2nd half of year 2, he played about half the snaps. If you watched him during that stretch, he was playing really strong football. It was capped by a stellar playoff performance against the Rams.

If those were your only two contentions, I might just assume we are remembering things differently. But criticizing his 2021 is ridiculous.

He played over 70% of the snaps in ten games. He missed one game, and played sparingly in the meaningless week 17 contest. The two other low points in terms of snap counts were week 10 (57%) when he got hurt and week 12 (53%) when he was coming back from injury. Overall, his snap count was virtually identical to Preston Smith's.

When healthy, he was a 70% snap player, and a very effective one at a premium position. Do you know how many Packers defensive front players are on the field for 80% of the snaps on a consistent basis? 1-- Kenny Clark. And that's actually a bad thing, not a good thing.

You're judging him by an unrealistic standard.

obviously you are using a different source for snap counts than i am. according to profootballreference, he never played 70% of the snaps in any game.

edit: i thought you were referring to 2020.