Gary's Happy Easter Mock

[GleefulGary]

This is probably my first mock where I've ever done a trade. Feeling a little like Favre>Rodgers here!

I'm not going to do explanations for the picks. For the most part, y'all know the players and I'm lazy (per usual).

Pick 30. (TRADE TO THE LA CHARGERS 30 and 209 for 37, Desmond King, and 112). Seems stiff, but the price to trade up for a QB is high.

37. Brandon Aiyuk - WR

62. Justin Madabuike - iDL

94. Ben Bartch - OT

112. Troy Dye - ILB

136. Saahdiq Charles - OT/OG

175. Jonathan Garvin - Edge

192. Joe Reed - WR

208. John Penesini - NT

242. Charlie Woerner - TE

 

[Fredrik87]

I like the draft especially the first 3 picks, but you don't think the Chargers take a QB at 6?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

HA! Desmond King....you're ambitious and you're not wrong.

You like Joe Reed for the ST Value?

TE in the 7th.....you guys really hate Jace and Tonyan that bad?

 

[GleefulGary]

HA! Desmond King....you're ambitious and you're not wrong.

You like Joe Reed for the ST Value?

TE in the 7th.....you guys really hate Jace and Tonyan that bad?

Everything points to the Chargers trading him.

I just like Joe Reed.

Sternberger and Tonyan are quite unproven. Lewis is old. If this TE class didn't suck, I'd mock one sooner.

 

[GleefulGary]

I like the draft especially the first 3 picks, but you don't think the Chargers take a QB at 6?

Depends.

If Tua and Herbert are gone, which is realistic imo, they might trade into the late 1st for Love.

 

[Fredrik87]

Depends.

If Tua and Herbert are gone, which is realistic imo, they might trade into the late 1st for Love.

Burrows going to the Bungles we can all but put it in pen, and Mia will probably take a QB but I'm interested in who you think takes a QB ahead of the Bolts.
Are you thinking someone leap frogs them in a trade or that on of the other 3 teams WAS, DET or NYG surprises people?

Also I think Love is long gone by 30 but you never know.

 

[Dantés]

Burrows going to the Bungles we can all but put it in pen, and Mia will probably take a QB but I'm interested in who you think takes a QB ahead of the Bolts.
Are you thinking someone leap frogs them in a trade or that on of the other 3 teams WAS, DET or NYG surprises people?

Also I think Love is long gone by 30 but you never know.

I'm a little suspicious that the Chargers might be trying to copy cat the Ravens and get Hurts in the late first round. That would fit Anthony Lynn's MO, and might explain why they've been so willing to sit tight with Tyrod Taylor and no one else. If they wanted to run that type of offense, Taylor is the ideal backup.

 

[Dantés]

This is probably my first mock where I've ever done a trade. Feeling a little like Favre>Rodgers here!

I'm not going to do explanations for the picks. For the most part, y'all know the players and I'm lazy (per usual).

Pick 30. (TRADE TO THE LA CHARGERS 30 and 209 for 37, Desmond King, and 112). Seems stiff, but the price to trade up for a QB is high.

37. Brandon Aiyuk - WR

62. Justin Madabuike - iDL

94. Ben Bartch - OT

112. Troy Dye - ILB

136. Saahdiq Charles - OT/OG

175. Jonathan Garvin - Edge

192. Joe Reed - WR

208. John Penesini - NT

242. Charlie Woerner - TE

Aiyuk at #37 is nice. I've heard that 4.50 is the slowest he's run in a long time, and may have been due to the abdominal issue that he got surgically repaired recently.

Madibuike is one of the few iDL in this class that I like for Green Bay. The value at #62 is great. I'm a little skeptical of investing a high pick in a 3T when Z will play there so often, but I suppose Maddy Books could spell Kenny on some passing downs.

I really wish I had metrics on Bartch. I realize he was good at the Senior Bowl. This edge class also sucks. At least with a guy like Driscoll, I can see him being really athletic in the SEC.

Troy Dye is a pretty ideal LB target for GB. Unless a guy with cover skills falls to them (e.g. Queen at #30) early, I think they will put it off. I've come off the Brooks/Harrison ideas-- just doesn't fit their MO.

Hard for me to imagine Joe Reed falling to the 6th round with his value as a gadget option, special teams ability, and high end athleticism. But stranger things have happened.

Last thing-- honest question-- can Desmond King play man? He played at Iowa where they play virtually no man coverage, and he's been with Gus Bradley who calls mostly zone. Is he a fit?

 

[Fredrik87]

I'm a little suspicious that the Chargers might be trying to copy cat the Ravens and get Hurts in the late first round. That would fit Anthony Lynn's MO, and might explain why they've been so willing to sit tight with Tyrod Taylor and no one else. If they wanted to run that type of offense, Taylor is the ideal backup.

Man has Hurts really been rising up draft boards that much?
Most of the mocks I've seen have him pegged as a 3rd or 4th rounder.

Also you mentioned it would fit Lynn's MO I admittedly no nothing about him but Hurts is very different from Rivers his QB from last year so I am curious as to why you think he's after Hurts.
Is it because of the type of scheme he runs or something in his background or something else?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Burrows going to the Bungles we can all but put it in pen, and Mia will probably take a QB but I'm interested in who you think takes a QB ahead of the Bolts.
Are you thinking someone leap frogs them in a trade or that on of the other 3 teams WAS, DET or NYG surprises people?

Also I think Love is long gone by 30 but you never know.

If it's the 2nd Round, the Colts. Colts most likely are comfortable at taking him early in the 2nd. I am mocking a trade with the Colts this week so they jump up and select Love in case somebody like the Chargers try to take him or the Raiders attempt to move up.

Man has Hurts really been rising up draft boards that much?
Most of the mocks I've seen have him pegged as a 3rd or 4th rounder.

Hurts is right in the 3rd Round. His value will likely be determined by when Love goes. If Colts jump up in my mock scenario and select Love, then Hurts probably moves into mid 2nd Round consideration.

 

[Dantés]

Man has Hurts really been rising up draft boards that much?
Most of the mocks I've seen have him pegged as a 3rd or 4th rounder.

Also you mentioned it would fit Lynn's MO I admittedly no nothing about him but Hurts is very different from Rivers his QB from last year so I am curious as to why you think he's after Hurts.
Is it because of the type of scheme he runs or something in his background or something else?

Lynn inherited Rivers. So that was an arranged marriage. He also came close to benching him last year.

Lynn is a rarity in that he's a former RB coach who made it to being a head coach. He wants to run the ball. He was the interim HC and OC in 2016 with Tyrod Taylor as his starting QB. They ran the ball as a team 492 times for 2630 yards and 29 touchdowns. Those numbers were 2nd, 1st, and 1st respectively. Taylor accounted for 95/580/6 of that rushing production.

So Lynn brings in Taylor to LA, and the Chargers decide to part way with Rivers. And last year, he got to see his ideal offense set the league on fire in Baltimore, possibly making him all the more eager to follow suit.

So it's a theory. I also have no idea how NFL really view Jalen Hurts. But if they think he can start and be a good player at QB, he's going a lot higher than the 3rd round. And teams often want to take them in the 1st round so that they can secure that 5th year option.

 

[Fredrik87]

If it's the 2nd Round, the Colts. Colts most likely are comfortable at taking him early in the 2nd. I am mocking a trade with the Colts this week so they jump up and select Love in case somebody like the Chargers try to take him or the Raiders attempt to move up.



Hurts is right in the 3rd Round. His value will likely be determined by when Love goes. If Colts jump up in my mock scenario and select Love, then Hurts probably moves into mid 2nd Round consideration.

Somewhat unrelated but what do you think of the Rams as a trade down partner for us they don't have a first rounder until 2022 and haven't had since I believe 2016.
They have two 2nd rounders do you think they might be interested in trading into the first.

 

[Fredrik87]

Last thing-- honest question-- can Desmond King play man? He played at Iowa where they play virtually no man coverage, and he's been with Gus Bradley who calls mostly zone. Is he a fit?

By any chance do you know of any sites that show what percentage of the time particular teams are in man vs zone coverage?
I have been searching with no luck and don't know enough about every teams DC to know what their tendencies are

Lynn is a rarity in that he's a former RB coach who made it to being a head coach. He wants to run the ball. He was the interim HC and OC in 2016 with Tyrod Taylor as his starting QB. They ran the ball as a team 492 times for 2630 yards and 29 touchdowns. Those numbers were 2nd, 1st, and 1st respectively. Taylor accounted for 95/580/6 of that rushing production.

Like I said I don't know much about Lynn, so I was unaware of these numbers I can definitely see why you think Hurts might be a fit for them.
I think they likely take a QB at 6 or if they went with Hurts waited until the 2nd or 3rd closer to where he's projected.
But if they did fall in love with Hurts it's definitely possible they could trade up to take him at the end of the first in order to secure that 5th year option.

 

[Dantés]

By any chance do you know of any sites that show what percentage of the time particular teams are in man vs zone coverage?
I have been searching with no luck and don't know enough about every teams DC to know what their tendencies are

Like I said I don't know much about Lynn, so I was unaware of these numbers I can definitely see why you think Hurts might be a fit for them.
I think they likely take a QB at 6 or if they went with Hurts waited until the 2nd or 3rd closer to where he's projected.
But if they did fall in love with Hurts it's definitely possible they could trade up to take him at the end of the first in order to secure that 5th year option.

That's funny-- I was looking for the same thing. And no, I don't.

That option is pretty huge for a QB. A good starting QB right now is worth about 32M/season on the market. So when the option for a late QB is like half that, it's a pretty valuable thing to have in the back pocket.

If they think that they can get him in the 3rd round, then I could see them waiting. But if the plan is to take him at #37, then the price to move up is probably worth it for that 5th year.

I honestly have no idea where Hurts goes and have no clue how the media would have a good feel for it either. Teams are going to be all over the map on him depending on what they want at QB. But I will guarantee you that *if* NFL clubs think he's a starter for all or most of his rookie contract, he will go higher than people think.

The guy that I think the media is too high on is Eason. If there's a QB that someone is coming up for at the end of the 1st round, I doubt it's him.

 

[Fredrik87]

That's funny-- I was looking for the same thing. And no, I don't.

That option is pretty huge for a QB. A good starting QB right now is worth about 32M/season on the market. So when the option for a late QB is like half that, it's a pretty valuable thing to have in the back pocket.

If they think that they can get him in the 3rd round, then I could see them waiting. But if the plan is to take him at #37, then the price to move up is probably worth it for that 5th year.

I honestly have no idea where Hurts goes and have no clue how the media would have a good feel for it either. Teams are going to be all over the map on him depending on what they want at QB. But I will guarantee you that *if* NFL clubs think he's a starter for all or most of his rookie contract, he will go higher than people think.

The guy that I think the media is too high on is Eason. If there's a QB that someone is coming up for at the end of the 1st round, I doubt it's him.

Agreed on Eason not a fan of his but teams have been known to fall in love with big arms so I think he will likely get overdrafted, for the record taking him anywhere higher than mid 3rd round would be overdrafting him IMO.

 

[Dantés]

Agreed on Eason not a fan of his but teams have been known to fall in love with big arms so I think he will likely get overdrafted, for the record taking him anywhere higher than mid 3rd round would be overdrafting him IMO.

I think the league has soured on big-armed statues.

 

[GleefulGary]

I think the league has soured on big-armed statues.

And it only took 50 years!

Now that QB's pretty much legally can't get hit, it's easier for smaller QB's like Murray or Brees to have lengthy careers. Had they played in the 80's...

 

[tynimiller]

I have fallen in love with Penisini for a late round run plugger that instantly I think improve first and second down run defense. I do struggle that we'd get King out of the Chargers however I'd weight that trade in our favor but not by a ton depending what value you assign King.

 

[GleefulGary]

I have fallen in love with Penisini for a late round run plugger that instantly I think improve first and second down run defense. I do struggle that we'd get King out of the Chargers however I'd weight that trade in our favor but not by a ton depending what value you assign King.

They signed Chris Harris to play in the slot. Not sure where they would play King? They have a stacked secondary.

Just makes sense that they'd be looking to trade him.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Somewhat unrelated but what do you think of the Rams as a trade down partner for us they don't have a first rounder until 2022 and haven't had since I believe 2016.
They have two 2nd rounders do you think they might be interested in trading into the first.

No way. In order for the Rams to get to 30th I believe they'd have to give up 52nd, 84th, and 104th to do so. The Rams are just too cash-strapped as far as draft capital to do that. Plus on our side of things, we'd be pigeon-holed into probably just Michael Pittman Jr or Chase Claypool. I could live with Pittman but I'd prefer if we got someone a little higher. But theoretically it could pay off as we would have 3 picks in the 3rd Round. That would be by my guess an OT, LB, and CB.

 

[GleefulGary]

No way. In order for the Rams to get to 30th I believe they'd have to give up 52nd, 84th, and 104th to do so. The Rams are just too cash-strapped as far as draft capital to do that. Plus on our side of things, we'd be pigeon-holed into probably just Michael Pittman Jr or Chase Claypool. I could live with Pittman but I'd prefer if we got someone a little higher. But theoretically it could pay off as we would have 3 picks in the 3rd Round. That would be by my guess an OT, LB, and CB.

Any other draft and Pittman is probably talked about in the 1st round.

 

[Fredrik87]

No way. In order for the Rams to get to 30th I believe they'd have to give up 52nd, 84th, and 104th to do so. The Rams are just too cash-strapped as far as draft capital to do that. Plus on our side of things, we'd be pigeon-holed into probably just Michael Pittman Jr or Chase Claypool. I could live with Pittman but I'd prefer if we got someone a little higher. But theoretically it could pay off as we would have 3 picks in the 3rd Round. That would be by my guess an OT, LB, and CB.

they just got one of the Texans 2nd rounders #57 that and #52 would be more than enough to get them to 30.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

they just got one of the Texans 2nd rounders #57 that and #52 would be more than enough to get them to 30.

This is true, and I thought about that, but I just can't imagine the Rams wanting to not make a selection until 84th Overall, since they lost Cooks and Gurley they'll definitely want someone in the 2nd Round. I'm sure they could find a difference maker at RB in the 3rd but the cupboard will be almost bare for an impact WR by the 3rd in my opinion.

 

[Dantés]

My opinion: the Rams are in dire need of as much cheap talent as they can get their hands on. This means they want more rookies in the top 100, not fewer. So I would not peg them as a trade up candidate.

When trying to zero in on teams that are likely to trade up into the first round, you want to circle the clubs that have a lot of draft capital and/or have a QB need. The Jaguars could be in the market for a QB and currently have 12 picks. The Dolphins are another team-- QB need and 14 picks. The Panthers aren't swimming in picks with 8, but they could be looking for a QB, and could potentially trade down with their first selection and acquire more. The Chargers have their normal allotment of 7 picks, but could be looking to come up and nab a QB.

That doesn't mean that teams couldn't be coming up for any other reason, but those other scenarios are just much less predictable.