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Football Outsiders Film Room: Aaron Rodgers

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by captainWIMM, Jun 9, 2016.

  1. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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  2. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Thanks for sharing Captain. A good breakdown of all that AR does and just how well he does it. Further confirmed my opinion of just how good AR makes the other 10 guys around him.
     
  3. C-Lee

    C-Lee Cheesehead

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    Good article.

    My only complaint of Godgers has been a couple of playoff performances.
     
  4. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I hear that criticism a lot and the one thing I always go back to is looking at who the Packers are facing in the playoffs, top tier teams that are tougher to beat. We all know really good defenses can make even the best QB's look average. So while Rodgers is a FHOF QB, he probably won't and shouldn't be expected to win every game he plays in. For that to happen, he is going to need some help from other players, on offense as well as from the defense and special teams. Basically, one man can only do so much on a 53 man roster. IMO, if the Packers are going to compete at the highlest level, they are going to need a few more better players and the QB position is more then covered.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2016
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  5. C-Lee

    C-Lee Cheesehead

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    All valid points. It's frustrating because Rodgers is so good that he sometimes CAN do it all by himself, but he just didn't get it done a couple of playoff games.

    The past two playoff losses, Aaron has played pretty bad. If it weren't for the calf injury in the Seattle game, I would have been livid at his performance. He was also mediocre in the Arizona game besides the last two throws (Praise Godgers, doe)

    It sounds like I'm being a hater, but I'm really not. Rodgers is the best.
     
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  6. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Both games you mention though were against tough defenses as well as some unusual circumstances. The Seattle game, as you mentioned, Rodgers was playing on one leg and still had them poised to win.....won't recant the last 5 minutes of the game, where special teams and the defense cost us the game but AR was able to bring them back to tie the game. The Arizona game, the Packers had 4 healthy WR's to start the game and lost Cobb right away. Once Cobb left, AR was left with one WR that wasn't even on the team until Jordy got hurt (Jones) and 2 WR's that were at the bottom of the depth chart (Abby and Janis). So to say that Rodgers had a bad game is IMO placing the blame in the wrong place. Without AR, we would have been blown out of that game is probably more accurate.

    I think we all get frustrated when the Packers lose, mainly because of just how good AR really is. When he is behind center, we all know the Packers can win just about any game. However, against quality opponents, AR can't be expected to do it all alone and has proven he can't.
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2016
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  7. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Very good article but the author did sort of gloss over the offensive issues in the 2014 NFC Championship game that prevented the Packers from having more than a 16-0 lead. The Seahawks turned the ball over 3 times in the first half and the Packers turned those three turnovers into a grand total of 6 points. Some of that is certainly on Rodgers not performing well since Rodgers threw two interceptions in the first half of the game as well.
     
  8. C-Lee

    C-Lee Cheesehead

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    I'll never watch the Seattle game again, so I don't really recall his performance THAT well. I do remember that the entire offense should have capitalized more, as Sunshine just stated, but the offense did put up enough points to secure a win. Worst game ever, ugh.

    I totally agree that AR had nothing to work with in the Arizona game, but his performance was bad. That pick 6 he threw (that thankfully was taken away) was awful, and the drive before the Hail Mary drive was just straight up bad. 3 and out like it was nothing. I'm just going to chalk that up to AR having an offseason, he really wasn't that impressive besides the first couple games.

    I do expect our offense to return to 2014 status and for AR to be an MVP candidate next season, but honestly, all I want is one more ring. I swear that everyone will bitch way, way less for the remainder of Rodger's career if he gets one more.
     
  9. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Not to rehash the 2014 game against the Seahawks, but remember just how good the Seahawks Defense was that year. They led the league in points given up per game (15.9). They led the league in yards given up per game (267/game), the 2nd best defense gave up over 300 yards/game. They led the league in passing yards given up per game. Now throw in the fact that Rodgers was playing hurt and the game was in Seattle. While it would have been nice to have scored more points, given how pathetic the Seahawk offense played for most of the game, it wasn't Rodgers and the offense that ultimately lost that game.
     
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  10. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    It all boils down to expecting too much out of one player, Aaron Rodgers. Sure the guy is great and he can win you games that you otherwise wouldn't win. But he is going to have off games or run into defenses that have his number that day. That is why, if the Packers are going to win the meaningful games, they are going to need some other players that they can rely on to pick up the slack during those situations. I didn't see anyone really do that on the offensive side in 2015.
     
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  11. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I agree. Sadly though, the law of averages would probably say any given team should win a SB every 32 years (32 teams). At least with Rodgers, those odds are greatly increased.
     
  12. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    The Football Outsiders analysis is solid. Of course, like any documentary it's a narrative cobbled together with complimentary evidence. Most of us would agree that the WR corps combined with the coaching changes were the main problems with our offense in 2015. However, we all saw Rodgers make more head-scratching throws last year than ever before. I can certainly believe that the offensive woes led to some of those poor throws, and to some extent problem his bum knee.

    I don't know if quitting cheese will help his decision making but it should keep him agile longer.
     
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  13. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    IMO, much of Rodgers uncharacteristic play was from frustration and trying too hard to 'make something happen'. Even the best need help- especially in the ultimate team sport.
     
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  14. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The article does a good job of explaining why Rodgers shouldn´t be blamed for the Packers playoff losses over the last few seasons.
     
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  15. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Excellent article.

    This quote from the article is particularly insightful: " It's easy to find examples of Rodgers elevating his offensive line; it's something he does on 90-plus percent of his dropbacks."

    Amen.
     
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  16. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    To be fair, the article sort of glosses over his faults in the playoff loss to the Seahawks. I understand why the author did it, one poor game against a very good defense isn't as defining as years of excellent play, but the blanket statement of "special teams and defense" being the reason the Packers lost to the Seahawks is like blaming only cold water for all the people dying on the Titanic; yeah, the cold water did it but you're kind of ignoring all the problems that put those people in that situation.
     
  17. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Maybe I need to re-watch the movie... :eek:
     
  18. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    While there's no denying Rodgers didn't have a good game vs. the Seahawks fans have to realize that he was playing on one foot against the best defense in the league. In addition his first interveption should have been called back for an obvious offside by the defense. Once #12 expected to have a free play he took a risk throwing Sherman's way.

    The second one is on him as far as I can tell but that the offense didn't score more points Rodgers isn't solely his fault (Nelson stumbling out of his break which would have been a TD, the running game not being able to punch it in from the 1 several times...).
     
  19. C-Lee

    C-Lee Cheesehead

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    Am I blaming him for the losses? No. I'm just saying he hasn't played up to his skill level in some of the key games.
     
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    True, but once again receivers underperforming factored into Rodgers not playing up to his skill level.
     
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  21. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    Sure, but how many times in the previous years do you remember him just flat missing receivers who WERE open? Maybe it's one of the situations where he did so before, but he made up for those with miraculous plays, and hence we 'forgot' about the bad ones.
     
  22. Sky King

    Sky King Cheesehead

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    He had an off-year compared to his MVP and near-MVP seasons, particularly his accuracy. Allegedly, this was the result of a knee injury incurred vs. San Diego and that he couldn't plant properly. Whatever, he just wasn't himself last season. Close but not quite there. Your statement regarding offsetting performances rings true.
     
  23. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    There's no denying Rodgers occasionally misses open receivers. But even last season he was accurate on 79.2% of his throws which ranked 13th in the league (trailing six QBs by less than 0.5%) which was significantly higher than him finishing 26th in completion percentage. That suggests the receivers playing a huge role in the passing game struggling.
     
  24. bigbubbatd

    bigbubbatd Cheesehead

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    Is there a breakdown of his stats before and after SD?
     
  25. Sky King

    Sky King Cheesehead

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    Someone posted them a while back. There was a difference as I recall.
     

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