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Football gonna become unwatchable

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by 12theTruth, Aug 22, 2013.

  1. Croak

    Croak Terminally twisted.

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    Interesting. That is something to think about. Informative post.

    Sent from my Kindle Fire using Xparent Green Tapatalk 2
     
  2. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Brady is struggling for one particular reason...they've been consistently drafting at the bottom of the first round for over a decade. The difference between being the #1 picker vs. #32 virtually equates to the #1 pick in the draft vs. a bottom of the 7th. round pick. If a team happens to be #31 or #26, adjust accordingly. The affects are gradual and cumulative. The Packers suffer from the same issue to a somewhat lesser degree.

    There's a significant gap between top 10 picks and the bottom 10 in the first round...the odds are much higher, though not certain, you'll find a play-making every-down Pro Bowl-caliber player who's ready for prime time by his second season when picking high in the first round. The affects have shown up in NE's defense. The Packers are much in the same boat.

    TT and Belichick try to compensate by accumulating picks, which increases the odds of finding overachievers and developmental players with upside in lower rounds. They've both had success by-in-large with this approach. Belichick goes in more for risky guys. Gronk dropped hard in the first round for off-field issues...that worked out great. Ras-I Dowling (who?) was a risky high second rounder with injury and off-field question marks...that one failed. TT sticks to guys with good athletic/Combine attributes where there are fit-and-finish question marks...Perry converting to hand-up, Jones too small?

    The key to winning is having a good QB, a half-dozen or so playmakers, and a decent supporting cast that allows them to make their plays. That gets harder when you never get a high pick. Low first round picks come with issues, and not just off-the-field or injury question marks. They're frequently not ready-made NFL players.
     
  3. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Fact: you can get concussed dropping from the rim of a basketball court even if you land on your feet.

    Taking a Soccer ball to the face, getting beaned by a puck/ball can also cause a concussion.
     
  4. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Injuries were just as large a factor in Gronk's drop.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I don't think that's the way it's breaking, and doesn't reflect the actual time line.

    4500 ex-NFL players are getting paid nearly a billion dollars because they don't like the idea that living past the age of 60 is a 50/50 proposition...when they were told "no problem" by their bosses.

    Tobacco, asbestos, black lung, Superfund sites...seems to me the people directly and adversely affected drove these issues into the courts then into public consciousness and finally into the legislatures. The interloping panty-waists, if you want to characterize them as such, come in at the end, not the beginning.

    People will always assume risks if the potential rewards are compensatory. What pisses them off is when the risks are underplayed by the authorities who are in a position to know while at the same time those authorities handsomely profit by their actions.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    What risks were underplayed by their employers?
     
  7. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    The draft is kind of a crap shoot. A great GM will build a better team with low round picks than a poor GM will with high round picks. Just look at the Redskins, Bills, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns and Lions over the last 20 years. These teams have consistently had high draft picks yet only occasionally show flashes every few years, and they never seem to turn the corner.

    Most high draft picks have their issues too. Part of it is being able to spot the pretenders.
     
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Really? Just google "NFL concussion settlement", "NFL concussion lawsuits", or any other likely combination and there's tons of info on it. The gist...the NFL understated concussion risks relative to the studies they had in hand. There are supporting tales of researchers being cajoled and threatened because the NFL did not like where they were heading.

    If that's not enough, ESPN underwrote this recent PBS "Frontline" documentary on football concussion, but when the NFL saw it they made ESPN take their name off of it. I guess it's unseemly for an NFL broadcaster to question the game. It airs next week in my area. I look forward to seeing it.

    Along the same lines, with far less press coverage, you might want to google "Riddell concussion lawsuit" or "helmet lawsuit". Riddell claimed that a certain new and improved helmet reduced concussions by something on the order of 35%. Independent research indicates that claim is false. This is particularly problematic since it extends into the amateur game.
     
  9. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Back in the 50s 60s and 70s when most of these guys played, there wasn't that much info on concussions. Nobody forced anyone to play football. Nobody guaranteed anyone's long term health. Nobody ever said it was a low-risk profession.
     
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Yes, drafting has a crap-shoot element to it...however, like the craps table, certain wagers have better odds than others.

    I took the time to go through the AP All-Pro roster from last year. Below you will find a list of those players drafted 1-10 in the first round and another list of players drafted 23-32...top vs. bottom of the round. This is one slice of the picture, but I think it's represenative:

    1-10 picks:

    P. Manning
    AP
    Megatron
    Von Miller
    Aldon Smith
    A. J. Green
    Andre Johnson
    Joe Thomas
    Justin Smith
    Peppers
    Suh
    Ngata
    Bailey


    23-32 picks:

    Rodgers
    Matthews
    David Wilson (as KR, not RB, so he probably doesn't count)
    Duane Brown
    Staley
    Mankins
    Maurkice Pouncey

    I get it. TT caught lightning in a bottle, snagging two All-Pro impact players in the bottom of the first round. We all knew that. But why should we think he can repeat that? He hasn't done it since, the key front office staff that helped draft those players are gone, some of our other first round picks have not lived up to their draft spot, and the rest of the league doesn't have that much success at it. The overall composition of the current Packer roster certainly doesn't indicate any particularly outstanding eye for talent...above average, yes, when factoring in the players permanently lost to injury (Collins, Bishop) + Bulaga.

    I wished I'd logged the middle group 11-22. As I was going through there were probably as many names in the second group as the first, such as Gonzalez, Willis and Ware.

    From this small slice of data, indications would be to trade up to the middle of the first round. However, if you want a QB or WR who will have major impact in his first or second year, your odds are best at the very top.

    Bottom line, drafting low year after year is a handicap in gathering together a core group of impact player needed to win. An elite QB with an average supporting cast can take you a long way, but it's not enough.
     
  11. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I should have known that was a leading question.

    Retired players have been seeking improved disability benefits for years. Ditka is one of those old-timers leading the effort on behalf of his colleagues. These issues have been part of union negotiations. The NFL subverted the collecting bargaining process by lying, not to put too fine a point on it.

    Further, individual claims for benefits by some older retirees with brain disorders have been denied based on the league's knowingly false assertions (according their own data) that concussions do not cause permanent brain damage.

    The NFL didn't settle the first suit of several for $750 million to make it go away. They settled because they feared it could have been much worse.

    It's quite the mess.
     
  12. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Just to note, these three are all problems that I wouldn't want on my team for various reasons.
     
  13. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Oh that evil NFL subverting the efforts of the virtuous union again... C'mon.

    And how do you know they knew this 30 years ago? The NFL is in the football business, not the medical research business.

    It should be noted that the majority of these players were compensated handsomely for their services. 90% of them made more money than 90% of us ever will. It's their own fault if they squandered it or entrusted it to unscrupulous individuals.
     
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Look, you asked me and I gave you the $765 million rationale (and counting) behind the case; there are reasons why the NFL settled this first of several cases. You may not like it, but that's the nub of it. I suggest you write Goodell and tell him to get the money back and take the case balls-to-the-wall in court. He would decline you suggestion because he would lose.

    As far as this union goes, they got beat badly this last time around with the CBA because the NFL finally gave them some meaningful, current financial statements. That 2/3 of these franchises proved to be sub-standard investments with weak net margins put the owners in a stronger position. The owners didn't want to do it because they have egos...they want all of their friends to think they can have fun and make good money while doing it. Well, well.

    If it turns out that the owners actually cooked the books and that is discovered, they will be in the hot seat in front of the NLRB and in the courts, and they will have to settle for a ton of money. With good cause. That's the way it works.

    No one disputed what the NFL knew 30 years ago. That had nothing to do with it, as I explained.

    You brought up the matter of players from the 50s's, 60's and 70's. Many of those guys were not "handsomely" compensated.

    PS: I sided strongly with the owners, at length, on the GBPG during the CBA negotiations. Compensation costs were running most franchises into the ground and the de-certification stunt was a weak ploy. I side with the players on this issue because the NFL had information they chose not to disclose for the sake of profit. Each issue has its own merits.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2013
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Yeah, well I'd take Von Miller in half a heartbeat. He didn't do anything Mike Neal didn't do. Oh, wait...Miller got two games extra in his suspension because...wait for it...he tried to lie about it.
     
  16. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    In today's dollars no, but in the context of the time in which they played, yes, they did. In the mid-50s, players were paid on average about $800 per game at a time when the average household brought home about $70 per week. A lot of players made over $1500 per game. If it's 1958, I call that handsomely compensated.
     
  17. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    I consider cheating on your drug screens to be a step up from lying. Either way, it goes directly to his lack of character.

    Mike Neal was suspended for testing positive for Adderall, which was prescribed to him for legitimate medical reasons. Miller is a pothead and a cheat. There is no comparison between the two.
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Your numbers sound about right. Let's see what that means.

    Player = $800 per game x 12 games = $9,600/year plus whatever nominal amounts they got for training camp and 6 preseason games back in the day. Careers then were shorter than they are now to boot.

    Household = $70/ week x 52 weeks = $3,640.

    So the average NFL player made 3x the average household in 1958. In today's $, that's about $150,000/year relative to the current median household income of $50,000 (which includes a ton of single-person and small households and a ton of people below the poverty line). The typical middle class income is closer $70,000.

    Those guys old guys knew a short career in football could never carry them through for a lifetime, let alone into middle age or a kid through college. They worked in the off season and worked after the football career was done even if they had not squandered their money.

    Today, the median cap number on the Packers is about $800,000. I'd guess that approximates the median cash payout per year. The mean pay is north of $2 million/year. The typical players today makes the equivalent of 7 times what those 1958 players made.

    Hammer on the current guys for majoring in "general studies" (if they even manage to graduate), blowing their dough as fast as they make it, and having no pot to p*ss in by age 40. But there's not much of an argument in hammering on the old guys.
     
  19. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    That's splitting hairs.

    Yeah, right. Adderall is speed and guys like it on game day. It's quite the rage these days. It has the advantage of clearing the system in a couple of days to avoid detection if you forgo the prescription, or if you have the prescription you're not still buzzing on Tuesday.

    It's not hard to pay some doc for a prescription. This story keeps getting repeated..."I forgot to report my prescription." One wonders how that could be. Maybe the prescription was signed "Dr. Feelgood"? Seriously, though, you'd have to be pretty gullible to not view the Neal story with suspicion.

    Pot is not a performance enhancing drug. (See: Randy Moss taking games off), so there's no intent to "cheat" per se, only an effort to avoid getting caught with something the NFL doesn't like for PR reasons.
     
  20. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    And what's wrong with that? Yes, many of them had regular jobs for 7 months per year. But even if they didn't, they still made a heck of a living for the time. Still, nobody forced them to play and nobody then knew much about concussions back then.

    A LOT players in that lawsuit were simply looking for a money grab. Deion Sanders? Seriously? He's the prime example.
     
  21. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Neal was prescribed it for ADD and narcolepsy, both conditions that he has been diagnosed with for many years and for which Adderall is the preferred treatment. Adderall does NOT make one stronger, faster or in any way more athletic. It increases alertness and that's it. If you're intentionally going to look for something to enhance performance that is on the NFL's banned list Adderall is a pretty poor choice. That fact alone is enough to exonerate Neal of any ill intent, especially since he has had his diagnoses since childhood.

    This has to be the dumbest statement of the day. Miller CHEATED on his drug test. And the NFL has not banned pot for PR reasons. It's banned because it's an illegal, illicit drug.

    Neal broke no laws. Miller DID.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2013
  22. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    We already covered the first point. It is unfortunate guys like Sanders pile on. But that's the nature of suing as a class. The NFL would rather pay Deion some bling money than deal with each case individually, which in the end would cost them a LOT more money.
     
  23. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Actually, you simply made a statement without anything to back it up and I found it not worth pursuing but okay.

    I still haven't seen evidence the NFL lied to anyone.
     
  24. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I don't know if there are other posts you've made on this matter I have not read, but after this I'm leaving you with the last word because you don't know what you're talking about on any number of matters surrounding this issue, the last of which is the fact that pot is LEGAL IN COLORADO.
     
  25. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Okay, impart your wisdom upon me then. Educate me. Preach the virtues of weed, brother!

    BTW, it's ILLEGAL IN THE UNITED STATES, which trumps state law. And last I checked, 97% of NFL teams DON'T PLAY IN COLORADO. Your own personal insults aside, you need to get a clue before you accuse others of "not knowing what they're talking about surrounding this issue." Take your pro-drug agenda and sh... never mind. I won't go there.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2013

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