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Final 53 predictions

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by thequick12, Aug 28, 2014.

  1. thequick12

    thequick12 Cheesehead

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    Offense (24)
    QB (3) Rodgers, Flynn, Tolzien
    RB (4) Lacy, Starks, Harris, Kuhn
    WR (5) Nelson, Cobb, Boykin, Adams, Janis
    TE (4) Bostick, Quarless, Rodgers, Stoneburner
    OL (8) Baktiari, Sitton, Tretter, Lang, Bulaga, Sherrod, Taylor, Linsley
    Defense (26)
    DL (6) Daniels, Jones, Guion, Boyd, Pennel, Thorton
    S (4) Burnett, Hyde, Clinton Dix, Richardson
    CB (6) Shields, Williams, Hayward, House, Bush, Rolle
    OLB (6) Peppers, Matthews, Perry, Neal, Elliot, Hubbard
    ILB (4) Hawk, Jones, Lattimore, Barrington
    Special Teams (3)
    K (1) Crosby
    P (1) Masthay
    LS (1) Goode

    PS (10)
    LB Carl Bradford
    WR Kevin Dorsey
    TE Justin Perillo
    DL Carlos Gray
    CB Goodson
    RB LaDarius Perkins
    + 4 more
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
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  2. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    Hubbard blew his knee possibly and thornton blew his hammy. I think they IR them both since they were on the fence anyways. I agree with your 53 other than those 2 and I will replace those 2 with Banjo and Mulumba.
     
  3. thequick12

    thequick12 Cheesehead

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    If thats the case with the injuries I would agree.
     
  4. PackerFanLV

    PackerFanLV Cheesehead

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    I like that 53
     
  5. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    Starting a thread is a good thing, but you should have looked and seen that you would be starting a thread already running about the same subject. The thread titles may not please everyone, but once they are in play, starting another on the subject will be caught by the Mods and the original thread will swallow the rest.

    Your 53 lineup is close, but I say subtract 1 TE & add 1 WR . .... cheesebob.jpg ......
     
  6. Eli Haugen

    Eli Haugen Cheesehead

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    the other 53 roster thread had 200+ posts of dumb arguing. Things have changed now that injuries have come, and pre-season is over...
    Im thinking Gillette or White could be a #6 also. But with Bostick hurt, and Quarless just coming back to form. Rodgers being a rookie. Taylor or Stoneburner could be a pick we might actually have to use...
     
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Relative to your list:

    I would add Myles White as a 6th. wide receiver. I've been in the minority in liking this guy since last preseason. To my eye he's the best route runner after the top #3, he's got 4.4 speed, decent hands; versatility at both slot and wide out; and long speed for kick coverage. Janis iced a job, of course...the TD and getting separation on the deep ball pass interference play were impressive; the fake he made to break that KO return was icing on the cake replete with a McCarthy's "wow" look.

    I believe Linsley showed enough so that putting Tretter on IR with the option to return should not set anybody's hair on fire. However, having no backup center, with Sitton or Lang filling in if Linsley were injured, is objectionable to me. Gerhardt might actually make the roster if Tretter goes to IR particularly if they believe they can't sneak him back on PS; the PS spot would make the wince-worthy move of Sitton or Lang to center just a partial-game mess.

    I'd think they'll drop Stoneburner and keep Ryan Taylor for his special teams cred and versatility as a serviceable H-back and in-line TE. If it were up to me, I'd dump Quarless (see my closing comments about possible "surprise cuts").

    I agree with your D-Line except Thornton's injury looked like it might be serious. If so, I'm going with Luther Robinson edging out Gray if Thornton heads to IR. This is the one position group where I think Thompson might try to go outside for a vet after cut downs in lie of Robinson or Gray. Guion looked gassed by the second series...it looks like it will take a couple of weeks before he's ready for anything but spot duty and there's not much experience in this group.

    At the OLB position, I think Hubbard showed enough tonight to edge out Mulumba who was my prior choice. Every time I think Mulumba is going to make the next step he has a game where he's all over the place. The question is how serious Hubbard's injury might be. There's not alot to separate these guys so "availability" might be the deciding factor.

    I need to drop one player from your list to open a spot for Myles White. Regrettably, I think it will be Rolle. He looks to have a future, but the CB group is deep and versatile. I provide the following caveat:

    My top candidate for a surprise cut would be Quarless, though it should not be that big of a surprise. I don't see where he adds anything at all vs. Rodgers and Bostick and it looks like he's lost his starting job anyway. To my eye, the talk about Quarless having improved his blocking is just that, talk. Keeping just 3 TEs would hardly be unheard of in the NFL, McCarthy's habit of keeping a bunch of TE/H-back/FB types notwithstanding. With Lacy's preference for running out of single-back, McCarthy could change his mind about the need. That would open a spot for Rolle. Otherwise, Stoneburner might just steal Quarless' job.

    Or one could make a choice...Bush or Rolle.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2014
  8. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Bush or Rolle? You have to stick with the top gunner in the NFL given that Rolle is unlikely to see more than a couple dozen snaps all season.
     
  9. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Two of our three cover corners will be free agents after this season.
     
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  10. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Yes, but we are primed to win a Super Bowl this season. You do what's best for this team right now and cross those other bridges when you get to them. If we lose one of them to free agency after winning a SB, then it was worth it.
     
  11. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    First of all, I've seen Bush-as-gunner disappear for multiple games at a time. The coverage yardage we surrendered last year was sub-standard. Second, if a team's Superbowl chance is supposed to hang in the balance because of one gunner, then that team probably did not have much of a chance to begin with.

    After watching Janis blow up that kick return tonight, I think he'd serve quite well opposite House until he polishes his route running.

    McCarthy loves having Bush around. He's a special teams captain. I don't expect him to be cut. But it should be given consideration. I think there is a valid basis for saying there is a choice.

    And lest we forget, Thompson's philosophy is to plan for the long run. His objective is to stay competitive and let the chips fall where they may come playoff time. You never hear him say, "Our objective is to win the Superbowl this year." In fact, this week, he stated his prognosis for the season as, "If we play well we'll win some games." In this, I agree. You can't plan to win a Superbowl in a particular year; teams that try (like the Philly "Dream Team") fail, and often miserably. He's kinda got a Sartre thing going there..."being is becoming". ;)
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
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  12. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    My prediction for the final 53:
    QB: Rodgers, Flynn, Tolzien
    RB: Lacy, Starks, Harris
    FB: Kuhn
    TE: R.Rodgers, Quarless, Bostick, Stoneburner
    WR: Nelson, Cobb, Boykin, Adams, Janis
    OL: Bakhtiari, Sitton, Linsley, Lang, Bulaga, Sherrod, Taylor, Tretter
    DL: Daniels, Boyd, D.Jones, Pennel, Guion
    ILB: B.Jones, Hawk, Barrington, Lattimore, Bradford
    OLB: Matthews, Peppers, Neal, Perry, Elliot, Mulumba
    CB: Shields, Williams, House, Hayward, Bush
    S: Burnett, Hyde, Clinton-Dix, Richardson, Banjo
    ST: Crosby, Mastay, Goode

    PS: Perkins, Perillo, Gillett, Dorsey, Gerhart, [OT], Robinson, Gray, Rolle, Goodson

    Possibly IR, wait and see until we know more about their injuries: Thornton, Palmer, Hubbard
     
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Mostly agree with your 53, think the Packers will keep six WRs with Myles White making the team, keeping only five true corners with Bush making it over Rolle.

    I expect Thornton to be placed on IR, which probably saves him from being cut, think Robinson will make the 53. Hubbard is another candidate for injured reserve, doubt he would have made the team over Mulumba.
     
  14. PackerFlatLander

    PackerFlatLander Cheesehead

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    Going into camp, I assumed that Flynn was a no-brainer and Tolzien would be gone. This is a really tough call - I don't know that they will keep three QB's. That isn't common anymore.
     
  15. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    I'll enter a prediction~ assuming K. Thornton and A. Hubbard are injured bad enough to be IR'd (stashed).

    Offense (24)
    QB (2) Rodgers, Tolzien
    RB (4) Lacy, Starks, Harris, Kuhn
    WR (5) Nelson, Cobb, Boykin, Adams, Janis
    TE (4) Bostick, Rodgers, Taylor, Quarless
    OL (9) Bakhtiari, Sitton, Tretter, Lang, Bulaga, Sherrod, Taylor, Linsley, Gerhart
    Defense (26)
    DL (6) Daniels, Jones, Guion, Boyd, Pennel, Gray
    S (5) Burnett, Hyde, Clinton Dix, Richardson, Banjo
    CB (6) Shields, Williams, Hayward, House, Bush, Rolle
    OLB (5) Peppers, Matthews, Perry, Neal, Elliot
    ILB (4) Hawk, Jones, Lattimore, Barrington
    Special Teams (3)
    K (1) Crosby
    P (1) Masthay
    LS (1) Goode

    PS (10)
    LB's Nate Palmer, Andy Mulumba, Carl Bradford & J. Doughty
    WR Kevin Dorsey & Myles White
    TE Stoneburner
    DL Luther Robinson
    RB LaDarius Perkins
    QB ~ Final Cut pickup from elsewhere

    Going a little "thin" at QB & OLB, and "heavy" at S, WR & OL ... just think Rolle & Banjo add more to the team depth than some of the PS guys. Also wouldn't be shocked if Stoneburner stays on the 53 and Quarless goes ~ Quarless just doesn't jump-out as anything special :unsure: . Gerhart stays until Tretter is back ~ chaos to move Lang or Sitton to OC, let them stay put and gel as a unit.
    *** Edit *** IF Thornton or Hubbard aren't IR'd they'll be 53 keepers ~ making Gray & Quarless expendable (in that order if only one Thornton OR Hubbard isn't IR'd).
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
  16. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    The cap savings if Bush gets cut is $1.7Mil. I think the "peace of mind" with coaches knowing they can throw him on the field in an emergency at CB or S and be serviceable (not great, just not blow every 3rd assigment) if needed is worth it. I went heavy in my prediction by keeping 11 (incl. Bush)... maybe that removes the need to keep Bush if they have Banjo and Rolle available?

    Other possible vet cuts and their cap savings:
    J. Lattimore - $1.431Mil
    Quarless - $1.075Mil
    Flynn - $993K
    Kuhn - $952K
    R. Taylor - $645K
    Tolzien - $645K

    http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers
     
  17. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Something else to consider in regards to putting players on IR is the ramifications for the team's cap. Having already six guys on IR and reaching an injury settlement with Lyerla will result in an additional cap hit of at least $2 million. Placing Palmer, Thornton and Hubbard on injured reserve would add another $1 million to the total number.
     
  18. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    Pardon my confusion, DH, but haven't you been the only one banging the "cut Bush" drum for the last week or so... and then you KEPT him on your 53? Even though you kept both Banjo and Rolle you still kept "swing DB/ST" Bush. Are you bi-polar or just stirring the pot?
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
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  19. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It's not common because teams typically keep a practice squad eligible guy who's been in OTAs, camp and took some snaps in preseason who at least has some familiarity with the system. With Rittig gone in first cuts, and miles from looking like an NFL QB, I doubt he'll be signed to PS. So, we won't have a PS guy who can play in an emergency regardless...weekly game prep does not leave much time to bring some new youngster up to speed.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
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  20. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    To be fair, he said he thinks Bush should be cut but that Thompson will not agree.

    I believe this is about predicting who will be on the 53, is it not?

    I'd cut Bush if it meant losing Rolle or Myles White, but I think odds are Bush will be kept.

    I'd more likely question DH's omission of Elliott. Silverstein blogged that Elliott was back walking the sidelines with his helmet on after going out, so his injury is likely not serious. Further, after QB, the most prized possession among GM's is the edge rusher according to a recent poll. He would not make it to PS. He's got a first step and then a kind of change-of-pace glide where he seems to adjust his attack angle...there's a lot of finesse in his move. It's a different look that OTs don't seem prepared for.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
  21. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I've got a couple of thoughts on this.

    First, with the new CBA, cap savings can be carried over from year to year; before it was "use it or lose it" in-season. This provision has changed the landscape at the broad margins, which is what we're looking at here. Savings are now, well, actual savings.

    On the flip side, when you isolate a player's cap savings if cut, you have to offset that with the cap hit of the guy who replaces him. The rookie minimum this year is $420,000 which would be the lowest offset. If, for example, Lattimore was released to make room for a DL veteran brought in from the outside, it might well be a cap loss.

    Regarding Bush as a pass defender:

    (1) We've got good depth and versatility...there's no reasonable expectation he'd have to see the field.

    (2) I would not be so certain he doesn't make a mistake on every third time he's been targeted in regular season action. He's one of those guys who relies too much on what he reads in the QB's eyes; sometimes he wins as with last night's route-jump pick; other times he gets burned badly. He's not to be confused with the uncanny Charles Woodson in this regard.

    I think this is why he always looks so great in preseason seemingly every year, but raggety in regular season when he gets the chance; he can get away with mistakes against second and third string QBs. Vet QBs would have some ideas about how to work him.

    This QB-reading, route-jump-happy, high-risk-high-reward, highlight-film-seeking, stats-for-contract-calculating, business-decision-making approach to defending receivers is precisely how we picked off a league-leading number of passes in 2011 while giving up a league-leading number of 20+ yard pass plays. Picks need to come organically, if you will, out of disciplined play, not manufactured on whims.

    Stat heads can argue the merits of such an approach, but lack of discipline will get you eventually if you want to get through 3 or 4 quality opponents come playoff time.

    So, Bush can be held up to the rookies as a work-ethic example and an example of company-man-professionalism, but I would not show them any of his pass defense tape.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
  22. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    I understand this, HRE. The cap savings breakdown was in response to DH's talk of cutting Bush from a money angle, but thanks for outlining the big picture.

    As TT has done pretty much every year the team will stay young. A more senior veteran is almost never replaced with an older, more expensive player... so most discussions regarding salary cap go into the "savings" category. To summarize, DH's comments about cutting Bush (cap savings of $1.7Mil) would have him replaced on ST (and the roster) by a younger, cheaper player ($420K-$645K??)... resulting in a cap savings of $1+Mil. My stance was that it's worth the $1+Mil to keep Bush for the coach's peace of mind and versatility.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2014
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  23. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Well, if the team moves these three guys to IR they will have $7.8 million remaining, which is still a lot of money left but not a huge amount to roll over into 2015 as some other guys will get injured during the season resulting in additional cap hits.
     
  24. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    I've seen every game in the last 10+ years except for 3 or 4 and I've never seen him disappear for multiple games at a time. He is widely considered one of the best gunners in the game and he has experience in Capers' defense. He's also not nearly as bad as a DB as some make him out to be. If you recall, he played a lot of nickle and dime during our last SB run.
     
  25. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    Elliot was back in the game late in the 4th. He said it was cramps. Good to go. He is on this team.
     
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