End of season WR2 for the packers predictions.

[thisisnate]

How are you defining #2 WR? Whoever has the 2nd most offensive snaps? 2nd most production?

Either way, I think it's going to be close. We have a pile of 2b/3a guys. It's also kind of weird with the Dillon and Deguara picks, because it seems like we might have a beefier lineup more often with just 2 WR on the field.

Begelton, Kumerow, and MVS are not it for me. It's between Lazard, Funchess, and EQ. I have to guess Funchess just because there's not enough info on any of the others.

 

[OldSchool101]

I would have liked the Packers to draft a wide receiver at #26 and already named some of them in various threads.

Ok. So Tyler Johnson is a nice thought, I liked him also. Now in real life they had to make a decision and it’s going to take at least a #210 plus our 5th rounder (#175) overall trade to trade up to #161 to get Tyler (that’s best case I f someone even wanted to trade) So which option of two players would you want to use to trade up?
1. Stepaniak+Kamal Martin
OR
2. Hanson + Kamal Martin

I’m only asking because there’s a cost associated with each selection. Us fans that are prepared to challenge our GM should also be fully prepared to explain their full strategy, not just throwing names around as if there’s no cost associated. Gutey had tough decisions to make, what’s your choice from above. I’ll be sure to follow Tyler for you, I’m curious to see as the seasons progress if Tyler’s production outweighs staying pat and grabbing TWO selections. I think he’s a good player choice for a later selection. He’s a name I would’ve watched either way.

Why so elusive on WR at #26? You obviously feel strongly about that opinion enough to warrant responding to multiple posters as if they’re all wrong. Then in a debate question... why make us search “various threads”? . who is your pick at #26 (in a similar trade up) at WR?

 

[jon]

With EQS coming back and with Funches and Begelton added, the WR corps is better than last year.

Geronimo is out, and Kumirow and/or MVS are following him. This is a net upgrade, though not the big one most fans were hoping for.

With every reason to believe that Aaron Jones will match or exceed his 474 yds receiving in the coming season, we should actually feel OK about the receivers holding up their end. He'll draw coverage.

Tight ends? An unproven rookie replaces Jimmy. It's easy to dump on Jimmy, I guess, but I think the jury's out.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Reading skills on forums illustrate a need for a better education system LOL

I was trying to subtly hint that the answer to the question, as asked, doesn't really matter. I think the WR2 for the Packers this yesar is going to be something equivalent to most teams' WR3/4. So, to answer the limited vein of this question, it will probably be Lazard because he's the only guy that has shown he's a worthy starter on this team before. Anyone calling for any other names is basically just relying on hope. Sure, I can HOPE that MVS blows up this year, and I might be right, but there's not really any rational reason to believe that will happen based on last year.

 

[OldSchool101]

I was trying to subtly hint that the answer to the question, as asked, doesn't really matter. I think the WR2 for the Packers this yesar is going to be something equivalent to most teams' WR3/4. So, to answer the limited vein of this question, it will probably be Lazard because he's the only guy that has shown he's a worthy starter on this team before.

I’ll admit that I don’t have the statistical information on the the majority of teams WR average between #3WR and #4WR.
I’m just looking at a quick scan in our North Division and a rough spot check. That doesn’t sound right to me off the top of my head but you still got me thinking.
GB was higher than many in our division around 375 yards (MVS/Gmo)
K.C. Would been about roughly 485 yards productivity in that #3-#4 WR average, id imagine that’s pretty high wouldn’t you? 1,000 yards sound high for a #3-4 combo.
Naturally I picked the Colts because I knew they struggled. They were like 225 yards averaging #3/#4.. so that’s probably lower end.

You said “most” so that’s more in the middle.
So I think “most” would exclude the lows and highs and finish in the 325 yards range.

Do you really believe our #2 WR would be Lazard and he’d finish in that 300-350 range? Or did you just not do the homework there? #2 TE or a #2 RB receiving yards maybe?

 

[OldSchool101]

With EQS coming back and with Funches and Begelton added, the WR corps is better than last year.

Funchess and Lazard are more physical and can manhandle many CB’s. MVS rather, has elite, breakaway straight line speed but seems to lack at running crisp routes, timing and mastering route concepts. MVS uses his speed as his primary weapon. and he has enough speed to compensate for shortcomings.

EQ on the other hand has a little of everything.. physical (20 reps) fast 4.48X40, big (6.5X216) good, crisp routes, solid hands, solid ball tracking, nice second move and afterburner. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he has enough raw speed to beat that first guy after the catch and keep the Safety busy earning his keep. I personally like EQ to pass Funchess because he showed confidence and competence in both O and ST in his Rookie season. I see him having the higher ceiling than Funchess eventually, but how long until he blooms is anyone’s guess. His advantage over a Rookie draft pick is a second year in the nuances of the MLF system. These combined are all key ingredients in a “taking the next step” guy.

I think we pretty much know what we have with Funchess. He’s a solid 13.5 YPC guy who’s big and physical in the mold of a smaller Flex TE. He’s not going to light ‘em up, but he’s a big, aggressive, underneath target for Rodgers and he seems to do well in man and exploiting gaps in zone. If he can learn to perfect catching with his hands more efficiently he’s easily a 750-1000 guy. If not, at healthy he’s just a solid #3 mold in that 500+ yards efficient caliber (where he’s plateaued several seasons).
His biggest obstacle had been staying on the field, the hands are more a secondary issue. If he fixes the former I think he’s 650+ range and if he fixes both 800+

 

[Fredrik87]

I think we pretty much know what we have with Funchess. He’s a solid 13.5 YPC guy who’s big and physical in the mold of a smaller Flex TE. He’s not going to light ‘em up, but he’s a big, aggressive, underneath target for Rodgers and he seems to do well in man and exploiting gaps in zone. If he can learn to perfect catching with his hands more efficiently he’s easily a 750-1000 guy. If not, at healthy he’s just a solid #3 mold in that 500+ yards efficient caliber (where he’s plateaued several seasons).
His biggest obstacle had been staying on the field, the hands are more a secondary issue. If he fixes the former I think he’s 650+ range and if he fixes both 800+

I disagree on Funchess his hand are by far his primary issue, his secondary issue would be speed though not much can be done there and then his health would come in a distant third.

Outside of last year pfr only has him missing 4 games in his career which doesn't worry me that much.
His hands however do worry me he's never had a catch percentage over 60% and the only season he had one that high was last year in which he played under 1 game and had 5 targets his next highest was a 56.8% catch percentage he set in 2017.

To be honest I see Funchess as our WR4 or WR5 his hand are poor, he doesn't have speed and his stats aren't good either never has broken 1,000 yards and has only one season with more then 600 and he also only has one season with over 50 receptions.

 

[Fredrik87]

How are you defining #2 WR? Whoever has the 2nd most offensive snaps? 2nd most production?

Either way, I think it's going to be close. We have a pile of 2b/3a guys. It's also kind of weird with the Dillon and Deguara picks, because it seems like we might have a beefier lineup more often with just 2 WR on the field.

Begelton, Kumerow, and MVS are not it for me. It's between Lazard, Funchess, and EQ. I have to guess Funchess just because there's not enough info on any of the others.

I am going by production specifically by yardage.

 

[OldSchool101]

I disagree on Funchess his hand are by far his primary issue, his secondary issue would be speed

Interesting. I said his biggest issue lately is not staying healthy. How do those help exactly? if he’s not on the field?

To be honest I see Funchess as our WR4 or WR5

I think you’ve severely underestimated Funchess’ abilities. GB didn’t sign Devin to be a #4-#5 WR. That’s the 2nd time I’ve seen something similar thrown around and it’s curious to me actually, why that’s being promoted?
Let’s look at what we do know that’s factual rather than rely on emotions.

Your #4-#5 (Gmo/Kumerow) last season was 253 yards in 2019. Those were slightly over the norm league wide... so call it 230 yards-ish without getting too precise.
So given he’s conceivably healthy (your expectation no mine) 14-16 or so games and 230 yards?
So..14-17 yards per game? That’s 1 catch per game!
You were either severely scarred by the Packers oddball draft or you’ve just plain been locked in that house too long! We’re all a little stir crazy from recent events.

 

[Mondio]

Funchess doesn't have a speed problem. He has ample speed for a WR in the NFL. Not having OTA's and being year 1 in this offense are going to be his biggest obstacles. If he can overcome those, he can easily be that 600-900yard guy with 50-65 catches and 5-10TD's in year 1.

 

[Fredrik87]

Interesting. I said his biggest issue lately is not staying healthy. How do those help exactly? if he’s not on the field?

I think you’ve severely underestimated Funchess’ abilities. GB didn’t sign Devin to be a #4-#5 WR. That’s the 2nd time I’ve seen something similar thrown around and it’s curious to me actually, why that’s being promoted?
Let’s look at what we do know that’s factual rather than rely on emotions.

Your #4-#5 (Gmo/Kumerow) last season was 253 yards in 2019. Those were slightly over the norm league wide... so call it 230 yards-ish without getting too precise.
So given he’s conceivably healthy (your expectation no mine) 14-16 or so games and 230 yards?
So..14-17 yards per game? That’s 1 catch per game!
You were either severely scarred by the Packers oddball draft or you’ve just plain been locked in that house too long! We’re all a little stir crazy from recent events.

Well I am hoping that our #4-#5 has more in the range of 350-450 yards, but looking at our roster do I think he is better than ESB no I already said I think he finishes as our WR2 this year and I don't think he's better then Lazard either AND I know he isn't better then Adams so that puts him at #4 if MVS were to improve his route running and gains Rodgers's trust I could see him slipping to 5 on the depth chart if you disagree tell me which of Lazard or ESB do you think Funchess is better then.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I’ll admit that I don’t have the statistical information on the the majority of teams WR average between #3WR and #4WR.
I’m just looking at a quick scan in our North Division and a rough spot check. That doesn’t sound right to me off the top of my head but you still got me thinking.
GB was higher than many in our division around 375 yards (MVS/Gmo)
K.C. Would been about roughly 485 yards productivity in that #3-#4 WR average, id imagine that’s pretty high wouldn’t you? 1,000 yards sound high for a #3-4 combo.
Naturally I picked the Colts because I knew they struggled. They were like 225 yards averaging #3/#4.. so that’s probably lower end.

You said “most” so that’s more in the middle.
So I think “most” would exclude the lows and highs and finish in the 325 yards range.

Do you really believe our #2 WR would be Lazard and he’d finish in that 300-350 range? Or did you just not do the homework there? #2 TE or a #2 RB receiving yards maybe?

No, I meant that Calvin Ridley is a good #2 WR, Lazard won't be near him, he'll be closer to a #3 WR. He'll be somewhere between 450-600 yards. None of the teams in our division had what I would call a prolific passing offense last year (Lions might have had Stafford not gotten hurt) so using them as a benchmark isn't great.

You should also consider the other point I made; how MLF wants this offense to run. Last year Rodgers threw 569 passes. If you take the 11 games Tannehill played the majority of last year, and average those numbers for a 16 game season, Tannehill would have thrown 416 times. The #2 WR, especially a big, slow WR, in an offense that throws about 450 passes in a season is NOT going to have big yardage totals.

Homework can be easy if just done on a cursory basis, much harder when you add context and thought.

 

[Mondio]

How is Funchess "slow"? He's beaten guys like Sly who's a great DB. He's beating 2 years ago Xavier Rhodes, Malcom Butler, etc. He's plenty fast enough to play in the nfl and he's big enough some of those small guys fall off him him when he catches and cuts. There's a lot to like about Funchess and there is a lot more to being an NFL WR than a 4.4 40 time. He needs to learn the offense and get comfortable, catch the ball and he's going to be just fine.

 

[Fredrik87]

How is Funchess "slow"? He's beaten guys like Sly who's a great DB. He's beating 2 years ago Xavier Rhodes, Malcom Butler, etc. He's plenty fast enough to play in the nfl and he's big enough some of those small guys fall off him him when he catches and cuts. There's a lot to like about Funchess and there is a lot more to being an NFL WR than a 4.4 40 time. He needs to learn the offense and get comfortable, catch the ball and he's going to be just fine.

He ran a 4.71 that is slow just because he's won a few reps off of other aspects doesn't make it less slow we already had the big body jump ball type in ESB and Lazard who I consider to be better we do not have a deep threat/field stretcher MVS's route running and hands are to poor for him to count IMO.

Next, where are you getting those stats from?

Beat Slay? he posted the impressive stat line of 2 reception on 8 targets and 39 yards that's not beating Slay that getting owned by Slay, beat Rhodes? he had 3 reception on 7 targets for 59 yards not very impressive I would hardly call that beating Rhodes.

 

[Mondio]

He ran a 4.71 that is slow just because he's won a few reps off of other aspects doesn't make it less slow we already had the big body jump ball type in ESB and Lazard who I consider to be better we do not have a deep threat/field stretcher MVS's route running and hands are to poor for him to count IMO.

Next, where are you getting those stats from?

Beat Slay? he posted the impressive stat line of 2 reception on 8 targets and 39 yards that's not beating Slay that getting owned by Slay, beat Rhodes? he had 3 reception on 7 targets for 59 yards not very impressive I would hardly call that beating Rhodes.

He’s beaten them both for TDs so make of it what you will. He also ran a 4.48. He’s not to slow and he’s plenty big and strong.

 

[Fredrik87]

He’s beaten them both for TDs so make of it what you will. He also ran a 4.48. He’s not to slow and he’s plenty big and strong.

That 4.48 was run at his pro day and isn't very believable he also never looks that fast when you actually watch him play.

 

[Mondio]

That 4.48 was run at his pro day and isn't very believable he also never looks that fast when you actually watch him play.

Because he’s big. He’s fast enough to play wr in the nfl

 

[jon]

how MLF wants this offense to run. Last year Rodgers threw 569 passes. If you take the 11 games Tannehill played the majority of last year, and average those numbers for a 16 game season, Tannehill would have thrown 416 times.

This is a really good observation. 416 vs 569 is a dramatically different offense-- 9 fewer throws per game. If this is the goal, it explains the decision to pass on getting a playmaker receiver.

Of course, if you've got 12 then you want the ball in his hands.... It will be interesting to play selection in the coming, to try and spot places where a run replaced a pass.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well I am hoping that our #4-#5 has more in the range of 350-450 yards, but looking at our roster do I think he is better than ESB no I already said I think he finishes as our WR2 this year and I don't think he's better then Lazard either AND I know he isn't better then Adams so that puts him at #4 if MVS were to improve his route running and gains Rodgers's trust I could see him slipping to 5 on the depth chart if you disagree tell me which of Lazard or ESB do you think Funchess is better then.

BOTH
I think you’re severely underestimating Funchess

If you add both EQs best season AND Lazard’s best season together it still doesn’t equal Funchess best

Funchess’ most similar competition is Lazard. While I like Lazard, we have to understand that Funchess is still more proven. 5+ years making an NFL roster itself is an accomplishment.
Regarding your drops and speed argument.. let’s take a closer look at that shall we before you push Funchess to #5.

Another thing regarding catch rate is we should factor things like
1. Cam Newtons best season was 2015 and he’s been inconsistent ever since. He’s had just 1 season >60% in his NFL career VS
—Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a completion % of 60% or less since becoming a starter in (12 seasons).
Never...

2. Cam Newton has thrown for 4000+ just once in 16 game starts 1/6 in His career (2011 Rookie season) VS Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 4000+ in 7/8 seasons where he played 16 games.

3. Cam Newtons career % rate is 59.6% VS
—Aaron Rodgers is 64.6% career.

4. PFF ranked Devin Funchess in the NFL top#10 leading contested catch rate WR’s in his Rookie 2015 season (48%)

5. Funchess 2018 true catch rate (takes into consideration catchable balls) was 75.9% and is deemed “Mr. Dropsies”
— Lazard was labeled “Mr. lights out” on 3rd downs in 2019 (69.6%) and Lazard’s full body of work had him at a 81.4% true catch rate in 2019.

On an average of 55 targets in a season (the median between Lazard’s 63 targets Lazard’s 48 targets, then applying a 5.5% difference in drop rate we get...
3 more dropped passes in a season. That’s 1 more dropped pass every 5.33 games (not to mention Devin had 7 more contested)

6. Allen Lazard 2019 contested catch rate in 2019 was 50.0% (8 targets) VS.
Devin Funchess contested catch rate in 2018 was 53.3% (15 targets).

7. Lazard runs a 4.55X40 at 225lbs VS.
Funchess runs a 4.6X40 at
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...015/03/12/michigan-football-pro-day/70220864/


Lazard last full season 13.6 YPC (avg targeted distance 14.6) Career=13.4 YPC (2 seasons)

Funchess last full season 12.5 YPC (average target distance 12.6) Career =13.8 (5 seasons)

Lazard biggest season 35/477/3TDs
Funchess biggest season 63/844/8TDs

Now I’m not sure if you’re drinking the Cool Aid that’s being passed around here.. but Devin Funchess is not nearly as bad as everyone (who’s upset we didn’t take a WR) is trying to portray. The only way he’s #5 or worse on our depth chart is if he’s put on season ending IR week 1. That’s coming from a guy who’s high on EQ

 

[gopkrs]

Right now, the only things I am thinking about Funchess is that he looked awesome in some of his college tape. But that we did not have to pay him very much. So I will just wait and see how things unfold.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Well it’s a fact that our entire personnel staff as a whole disagrees with you, because if they felt WR was a desperate need I’m pretty sure they would’ve used one of the 9 selections. It’s not like they forgot.
I believe the GB staff felt like the signing of Funchess, the return of EQ, the emergence of Lazard and some sparks from MVS all showed encouraging signs. We now know that they feel confident that one or more of that group gets a significant increase in production. Of course that won’t be hard for Funchess or EQ because they were both injured last season.

Once let’s not be vague. If you’re going to continue naysaying every move c we made let’s get your players in now.

Captain. Which WR would you have picked at #62 or beyond again? Also. Would you have taken more than one? If so.. specifically by name which ones.​

Yeah I’m a little tired of the “we should have taken a WR in round 1”. A lot of us feel that way but the draft is over, move on. At a minimum, we should have a decent backup QB for a change (looking on the bright side).

And I’m more comfortable giving Lazard, ESB, and Funchess reps versus an unproven rookie. I’m guessing the FO feels the same way.

As for who emerges as the #2, I’ll go with Lazard, but won’t be surprised if ESB steps up big time.

 

[Heyjoe4]

BOTH
I think you’re severely underestimating Funchess

If you add both EQs best season AND Lazard’s best season together it still doesn’t equal Funchess best

Funchess’ most similar competition is Lazard. While I like Lazard, we have to understand that Funchess is still more proven. 5+ years making an NFL roster itself is an accomplishment.
Regarding your drops and speed argument.. let’s take a closer look at that shall we before you push Funchess to #5.

Another thing regarding catch rate is we should factor things like
1. Cam Newtons best season was 2015 and he’s been inconsistent ever since. He’s had just 1 season >60% in his NFL career VS
—Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a completion % of 60% or less since becoming a starter in (12 seasons).
Never...

2. Cam Newton has thrown for 4000+ just once in 16 game starts 1/6 in His career (2011 Rookie season) VS Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 4000+ in 7/8 seasons where he played 16 games.

3. Cam Newtons career % rate is 59.6% VS
—Aaron Rodgers is 64.6% career.

4. PFF ranked Devin Funchess in the NFL top#10 leading contested catch rate WR’s in his Rookie 2015 season (48%)

5. Funchess 2018 true catch rate (takes into consideration catchable balls) was 75.9% and is deemed “Mr. Dropsies”
— Lazard was labeled “Mr. lights out” on 3rd downs in 2019 (69.6%) and Lazard’s full body of work had him at a 81.4% true catch rate in 2019.

On an average of 55 targets in a season (the median between Lazard’s 63 targets Lazard’s 48 targets, then applying a 5.5% difference in drop rate we get...
3 more dropped passes in a season. That’s 1 more dropped pass every 5.33 games (not to mention Devin had 7 more contested)

6. Allen Lazard 2019 contested catch rate in 2019 was 50.0% (8 targets) VS.
Devin Funchess contested catch rate in 2018 was 53.3% (15 targets).

7. Lazard runs a 4.55X40 at 225lbs VS.
Funchess runs a 4.6X40 at
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...015/03/12/michigan-football-pro-day/70220864/


Lazard last full season 13.6 YPC (avg targeted distance 14.6) Career=13.4 YPC (2 seasons)

Funchess last full season 12.5 YPC (average target distance 12.6) Career =13.8 (5 seasons)

Lazard biggest season 35/477/3TDs
Funchess biggest season 63/844/8TDs

Now I’m not sure if you’re drinking the Cool Aid that’s being passed around here.. but Devin Funchess is not nearly as bad as everyone (who’s upset we didn’t take a WR) is trying to portray. The only way he’s #5 or worse on our depth chart is if he’s put on season ending IR week 1. That’s coming from a guy who’s high on EQ

I feel the same way about ESB. Lazard is the emotional choice for the #2 position, but I won’t be surprised if it’s ESB.

I see Funchess playing a role similar to James Jones. A reliable veteran who can move the chains when needed. I don’t much care if he’s #2 or #5 as long as he gets that done.

 

[OldSchool101]

I feel the same way about ESB. Lazard is the emotional choice for the #2 position, but I won’t be surprised if it’s ESB.

I see Funchess playing a role similar to James Jones. A reliable veteran who can move the chains when needed. I don’t much care if he’s #2 or #5 as long as he gets that done.

What’s hard to gauge is usage. A couple years ago GB payed 2 TE $2 mil apiece (Kendrick’s + Lewis).
I think I caught more passes than both combined
All that and GB was struggling at Receiver and anyone with common sense would think you’d rely on your 2 seasoned veterans in that situation. We chose to ignore both of them (until the following season they involved Kendrick’s more and he played decent).
I guess what I’m saying is that as long as GB uses Funchess adequately and he remains relatively healthy (14+ games etc..) I think he is the guy to beat for a #2 option by default. We do not have a proven #2 WR option, but Devin is the closest thing to that.
Although we have 3-4 guys that any 1 of which could make that jump.

 

[Heyjoe4]

What’s hard to gauge is usage. A couple years ago GB payed 2 TE $2 mil apiece (Kendrick’s + Lewis).
I think I caught more passes than both combined
All that and GB was struggling at Receiver and anyone with common sense would think you’d rely on your 2 seasoned veterans in that situation. We chose to ignore both of them (until the following season they involved Kendrick’s more and he played decent).
I guess what I’m saying is that as long as GB uses Funchess adequately and he remains relatively healthy (14+ games etc..) I think he is the guy to beat for a #2 option by default. We do not have a proven #2 WR option, but Devin is the closest thing to that.
Although we have 3-4 guys that any 1 of which could make that jump.

Those are all good points. And I doubt that Gluten brought him in to sit on the bench. But yeah, how all the receivers are used is important. Unless the TE group becomes a real threat, more opportunities should go to the WRs. Now, if Sternberger breaks out and starts splitting the seam for 20-25 yard gains, then yeah, you go to him. He looks promising, but this is a “show me” league (well, what sport isn’t?). A fast start for Sternberger would help him and the team. GB hasn’t had a real TE threat since Cook.

Finally, to one of your points, I won’t be surprised if Funchess ends the year as the #2 receiver. He’s a solid veteran who fell through the cracks and landed in GB, fortunately.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't believe Lazard is what many think he is, at least not at this point in his career (and I HOPE I'm wrong) but let's not forget had the MVS experiment as #2 not fallen flat and Lazard been given a whole season he did project to some rather respectable stats.

He played in only 11 regular season games. 477 yards on 35 receptions along with 3 TD's. Easily projects to around 700 yards - 50 receptions - 4.5 TDs

While that isn't eye popping, and I suspect conservative, as basically a first year depended on guy he showed some reason for folks to have hope.

NOW granted MVS on the other hand as a rookie showed similar if not better "hope for the future"....is Lazard a similar story, just from an entirely different type WR? Or does he excel. Truthfully I think it lies somewhere inbetween and he will be a solid long term #2/#3 type guy never truly finding which he is.

I have said before while I'd have drafted Pittman, I still have hope that Funchess can easily be a team's #2 if health is no issue and I strongly feel between Lazard, EQ or MVS someone is going to excel (each of the three have something serious to prove this year)....and no one should be shocked if Reggie Begelton comes in and does a Kumerow type rise from the bottom.