Does Cold Weather Really Make a Difference?

[red4tribe]

We'll hear a lot this week about how the cold weather is going to be an advantage for us against a warm weather team like the Rams. This seems to be conventional wisdom, but is there really any statistical evidence back it up?

Just thinking about our recent history, our home losses in the playoffs have come against Atlanta (2002), Minnesota (2004), NYG (2007), NYG (2011), and San Francisco (2013). The Giants are from a colder environment, but Atlanta is obviously warm weather, San Francisco isn't really cold weather either, and the Viking play indoors.

So is there any statistical evidence that supports the conventional wisdom?

 

[longtimefan]

Depends on opp..if they are really good prob doesnt matter.

 

[C-Lee]

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[LambeauLombardi]

It did for the Titans. Hopefully the same for the LAms.

 

[gopkrs]

I think it is a little advantage being at home even w/o fans. The cold...I don't know. That bitter cold night when we lost to the Giants. Yeah it's cold in NY. But not that kind of cold. And the Ice Bowl. Dallas does not get weather like that and it took a final 68 yard drive to win. If it affects Goff's hand; that would be an advantage.

 

[longtimefan]

I think it is a little advantage being at home even w/o fans. The cold...I don't know. That bitter cold night when we lost to the Giants. Yeah it's cold in NY. But not that kind of cold. And the Ice Bowl. Dallas does not get weather like that and it took a final 68 yard drive to win. If it affects Goff's hand; that would be an advantage.

Small hands and recent screws put in

His bad stats in cold.

2018 game in Denver and Chicago

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

We'll hear a lot this week about how the cold weather is going to be an advantage for us against a warm weather team like the Rams. This seems to be conventional wisdom, but is there really any statistical evidence back it up?

Just thinking about our recent history, our home losses in the playoffs have come against Atlanta (2002), Minnesota (2004), NYG (2007), NYG (2011), and San Francisco (2013). The Giants are from a colder environment, but Atlanta is obviously warm weather, San Francisco isn't really cold weather either, and the Viking play indoors.

So is there any statistical evidence that supports the conventional wisdom?

Those cold weather games are irrelevant because of old Brett Favre's propensity for throwing picks which he did both indoor and out.

Against the Rams.... They got a running game which can thrive outdoors and may make a difference.

But against the Saints... Hell yeah cold weather is a big advantage against them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Those cold weather games are irrelevant because of old Brett Favre's propensity for throwing picks which he did both indoor and out.

Against the Rams.... They got a running game which can thrive outdoors and may make a difference.

But against the Saints... Hell yeah cold weather is a big advantage against them.

As someone that has lived in Wisconsin all his life, I can attest to 30 degrees seems really cold when it arrives at the end of October every year. I layer up, shiver, cuss and wonder why I subject myself every year to this climate. But by Jan. or Feb., 30 degrees feels like a heat wave, I may even wear shorts if it is sunny, its called acclimation.

So maybe no fans reduces the home field advantage a bit, but the January cold is a much bigger advantage than a mild Sept./Oct. day, especially against a warm weather team.

Even if you don't buy any of that and throw it out the window, I would say we are at a definite advantage having to face the Rams, New Orleans or Tampa Bay at Lambeau, than having to face any of those teams on their home turf.

The Packers should be fresh acclimated and ready to roll on Saturday!

 

[red4tribe]

I decided to dig into the numbers myself. Hopefully I did the math correctly.

Since 2008, the Packers have played 25 games in Lambeau started by Rodgers where the kickoff temperature has been 32 or below. The Packers are 20-5 in those games, so that's an 80% winning percentage. For what it's worth, seven of those games were against a team that comes from a warm climate (Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, Houston twice, and Tennessee twice), and Rodgers is 6-1 in those games, with the only loss being against Houston in 2008.

In home games that Rodgers has started where the temperature is above freezing, the Packers are 62-13-1, which is an 82% win percentage.

So it seems like the team has done just about equally as well in cold and warm weather at home under Rodgers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So it seems like the team has done just about equally as well in cold and warm weather at home under Rodgers.

What is their winning percentage, at home in warm weather? I assume by what you are saying, about equal?

Just an observation of watching the Packers take on Seattle last year in the Jan. playoff game, which I think was a balmy 25 degrees. Also, I consider Seattle a "warmer" climate team. Packer players were hanging out on the sidelines chatting, not in any hurry to "get warm", very few looking for heaters or heavy gear. Seahawk players on the other hand, were in front of heaters and covering themselves in the big coats.

Might just be a mindset and acclimation but my guess is, if you ask members of the Rams when they would prefer playing in Green Bay, very few would answer "January".

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers 2019 Divisional FULL Game - YouTube

 

[red4tribe]

What is their winning percentage, at home in warm weather? I assume by what you are saying, about equal?

Just an observation of watching the Packers take on Seattle last year in the Jan. playoff game, which I think was a balmy 25 degrees. Also, I consider Seattle a "warmer" climate team. Packer players were hanging out on the sidelines chatting, not in any hurry to "get warm", very few looking for heaters or heavy gear. Seahawk players on the other hand, were in front of heaters and covering themselves in the big coats.

Might just be a mindset and acclimation but my guess is, if you ask members of the Rams when they would prefer playing in Green Bay, very few would answer "January".

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers 2019 Divisional FULL Game - YouTube

It's 82% with Rodgers at home in games above 32.

Yeah, I wasn't really sure how to classify places like Seattle and San Francisco, which are obviously no Atlanta, but are a lot warmer than Green Bay. I am sure you are right that Rams players would like to avoid the Green Bay winter weather.

It just seems that there are always a lot of anecdotes about how cold weather favors the team used to it (which may very well be true) but I rarely see it backed up by hard data.

 

[longtimefan]

Brady was suited for cold weather. But he made a comment last few weeks... He loves the warm and glad he doesnt play in cold

https://sports.yahoo.com/tom-brady-...-after-20-years-in-new-england-160310506.html

“But I've loved just being outside every day. I was a native Californian for a long time in my life and I went away from it for about 25 years. You won't catch me dead living in the Northeast anymore. I'm loving the warm weather and it's been a great feeling.”

 

[Mondio]

The cold becomes less fun the older you get. It just does. I still love getting out there, but i'm not going to pretend I don't have to wear more to stay fairly comfortable. I probably still do better than most around here, but I don't do as good in it as I used to.

 

[Do7]

Against a warm team like LA? I think so.

 

[Zad Fnark]

Too bad the temperature doesn't *really* drop.

When I lived in Superior, the high temps would be -20 this time of year.

 

[El Guapo]

As someone that has lived in Wisconsin all his life, I can attest to 30 degrees seems really cold when it arrives at the end of October every year.

You know, one of the main culprits there is humidity. There is still plenty of moisture in the fall air the makes the cold feel colder, versus a nice dry day in January or February. But your point is well-taken. Our bodies do acclimate to the climate.

The cold absolutely makes a difference. There can be no doubt about it. What balances out the cold factor are good teams and great players. Michael Vick game here with Atlanta and ran circles around us, the same as Kaepernick. Even Manning did not kill us with the pass, it was Jacobs and Bradshaw pounding our d-line and linebackers.

Ackers is the only ace that they've got, which is not enough to be our three-of-a-kind in Rodgers, Adams, and Jones. I would say that our three RBs will be relied upon heavily in the next two weeks.

 

[longtimefan]

The cold becomes less fun the older you get. It just does. I still love getting out there, but i'm not going to pretend I don't have to wear more to stay fairly comfortable. I probably still do better than most around here, but I don't do as good in it as I used to.

Yup i can attest to this..I used to play football with friend middle of winter or basketball on my drive way.

I could do shorts and t shirt during winter..

Not anymore..once I got past 45 it started to get worse

 

[El Guapo]

Not anymore..once I got past 45 it started to get worse

Less meat on the bones!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not anymore..once I got past 45 it started to get worse

Here I thought life gets a lot better once you wave goodbye to 45?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

The cold becomes less fun the older you get. It just does. I still love getting out there, but i'm not going to pretend I don't have to wear more to stay fairly comfortable. I probably still do better than most around here, but I don't do as good in it as I used to.

Wuss !

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Here's the thing too. New England from what I hear is not as cold as Wisconsin. Yeah they get plenty of snow, but that's not the same as ice chilling windy below 10 degrees winter. So hence Brady played in colder weather outdoors, but it was not freezing Midwest weather.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I have never felt as cold as I did years ago in Green Bay. I had to go back to the hotel and lay in front of a log fire all afternoon and evening to try and get warm. A young lady at a bus stop was just wearing a tee shirt and jeans. When I asked her, she said it wasn`t cold as it was only -17 that day. You lot are just weird !

 

[red4tribe]

I spent a few years living in northern Vermont, not far from the Canadian border. The weather there is quite similar to Green Bay, and I can certainly attest that you do get acclimated to the weather over time. A 30 degree day in February can even feel balmy.

But everything I've seen about cold weather being an advantage for the home team is anecdotal. I'm still wondering if there is any hard data to support the conventional wisdom.

 

[swhitset]

Here's the thing too. New England from what I hear is not as cold as Wisconsin. Yeah they get plenty of snow, but that's not the same as ice chilling windy below 10 degrees winter. So hence Brady played in colder weather outdoors, but it was not freezing Midwest weather.

The coldest I can ever remember feeling... was waiting for a train in Salem Massachusetts to take me back to Boston. The outside Temp was around 30 degrees but the wind coming off of the water was bone chilling. I have lived in Wisconsin my entire life and will routinely wander around outside in the winter in a t shirt. I only post this to say... It can feel pretty damned cold in Boston too.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A young lady at a bus stop was just wearing a tee shirt and jeans. When I asked her, she said it wasn`t cold as it was only -17 that day. You lot are just weird !

I can imagine that when you were staring at this lady in just her t-shirt, it became obvious that she was still a bit chilly.