Comparing Defenses

[Dantés]

With 12 games in the books for 2021, I figured we had enough data to go back and look at how Joe Barry's defense is stacking up against Mike Pettine's.

Points/Drive Allowed:

-2018: 2.15 (23rd)
-2019: 1.79 (11th)
-2020: 2.18 (17th)
-2021: 2.02 (15th)

Yard/Play Allowed:

-2018: 5.6 (14th)
-2019: 5.7 (22nd)
-2020: 5.5 (17th)
-2021: 5.3 (11th)

Net YPA Allowed:

-2018: 6.6 (22nd)
-2019: 6.3 (15th)
-2020: 6.1 (9th)
-2021: 5.8 (5th)

YPC Allowed:

-2018: 4.3 (12th)
-2019: 4.7 (26th)
-2020: 4.5 (21st)
-2021: 4.3 (19th)

Sacks/Game:

-2018: 2.8 (9th)
-2019: 2.6 (16th)
-2020: 2.6 (10th)
-2021: 2.3 (15th)

Interception %:

-2018: 1.3 (31st)
-2019: 3.1 (3rd)
-2020: 2.1 (16th)
-2021: 2.8 (11th)

3rd Down %:

-2018: 37.3 (13th)
-2019: 38.1 (15th)
-2020: 39.5 (10th)
-2021: 43.7 (28th)

Red Zone %:

-2018: 60.7 (20th)
-2019: 50.0 (6th)
-2020: 57.7 (8th)
-2021: 77.4 (31st)

 

[El Guapo]

It looks like he is even with or better than Pettine's numbers generally. Red Zone scoring is the worst. People always griped about Pettine's defense and for good reason, but it truly was a bend but don't break motto.

I wonder how Barry's numbers have improved from his previous seasons as a DC?

 

[Dantés]

A few observations:

1) Barry's defense, so far, has essentially been better than anything Pettine coached in terms of limiting points on a given drive and limiting yards on a given play. I say essentially because technically Pettine's points allowed per drive in 2019 was better, but that was because the secondary had an outlier season in terms of takeaways. Really high INT numbers are in part a result of talent and coaching, but are also in part kind of random.

2) The main area in which Barry's defense excels in limiting yardage compared to Pettine's defenses is the passing game. His YPC allowed is roughly in line with Pettine. This makes sense, as Barry was hired primarily to bring the two high shell defense to Green Bay that's in vogue right now. The theory of this defense is to play two high almost always and force offenses to attack underneath.

3) Barry's defense has a lot of ground to make up in terms of situational efficiency-- 3rd down and red zone. If he can make some gains towards average there, the improvement on defense would become much more stark.

4) Pettine's 2019 and 2020 defenses had the benefit of an all-pro corner and an all-pro pass rusher; Alexander and Z. Smith each played 80+% of the snaps in both of those seasons. Barry has had Jaire for 28% of snaps, and Z for 2%. I think the absence of both of these players makes his gains all that much more respectable.

 

[OldSchool101]

I enjoy the topic. My other question that comes to mind is this.
Barry lost his best Pass Rusher and best Perimeter CB for most of his 1st season. Where would these rankings be had both played this year? I think it’s a reasonable argument to make that Barry has done more with less (or at least matched with less)

I also picked up on our ranking dropping partly because the league Defenses have obviously improved this season (or Offenses have regressed etc.) See YPC etc..

ps. I wrote this before your 2nd post Dante. I see where you eluded your Z n J. Many Defenses would regress heavily losing their best Cover CB and Edge as we both noted.

 

[El Guapo]

Pettine never had an impact ILB like Campbell, Smith is having a resurgence, and Kenny Clark is arguably having his best season in 2021 rushing the passer (not that he played bad in any season leading up to this) and creating general havoc in the trenches for opposing lines. Savage has had his hands on many footballs, Stokes has been remarkably solid for a rookie, and Douglas is an impact player. We could play this game all day.

 

[OldSchool101]

Pettine never had an impact ILB like Campbell, Smith is having a resurgence, and Kenny Clark is arguably having his best season in 2021 rushing the passer (not that he played bad in any season leading up to this) and creating general havoc in the trenches for opposing lines. Savage has had his hands on many footballs, Stokes has been remarkably solid for a rookie, and Douglas is an impact player. We could play this game all day.

So are you arguing that Barry has better talent than Pettine? Everyone’s in stride now verses last year etc..? That what it sounds like I just am curious your take. btw, I’m just playing devils advocate here.

 

[Dantés]

Pettine never had an impact ILB like Campbell, Smith is having a resurgence, and Kenny Clark is arguably having his best season in 2021 rushing the passer (not that he played bad in any season leading up to this) and creating general havoc in the trenches for opposing lines. Savage has had his hands on many footballs, Stokes has been remarkably solid for a rookie, and Douglas is an impact player. We could play this game all day.

I don't think we can.

As for the players that were here for both Pettine and Barry (Preston, Clark, Savage, Gary), but who are playing better now... doesn't the coach deserve some credit for that?

And as for guys who weren't, like Campbell and Douglas, those guys totally stunk before they got to Green Bay. Doesn't the coach deserve some credit for them suddenly becoming way better on the field?

 

[mongoosev]

Ever since Clay left sacks aren't the same.
Looking at the rankings or whatever you call it it seems like the D is doing ok this year, unless it's the O is just that good.

 

[El Guapo]

So are you arguing that Barry has better talent than Pettine? Everyone’s in stride now verses last year etc..? That what it sounds like I just am curious your take. btw, I’m just playing devils advocate here.

I was playing the same role. Two devils. You were pointing out that Pettine had Zadarius and Jaire, but I think both DCs had things that the other didn't have. My take was that there is no easy way to parse it all out cleanly to say that one is better than the other.

As for the players that were here for both Pettine and Barry (Preston, Clark, Savage, Gary), but who are playing better now... doesn't the coach deserve some credit for that?

And as for guys who weren't, like Campbell and Douglas, those guys totally stunk before they got to Green Bay. Doesn't the coach deserve some credit for them suddenly becoming way better on the field?

Coaches and players both deserve credit. My point is that it is hard for us to say that it is mainly the coach or mainly the player. Campbell and Douglas are both in prove-it situations, so did they re-dedicate themselves, are the coaches making the difference, is it just the right situation for the right guy, or a combination of all the above.

My overall point is that comparing stats between the two DCs only proves one fact - that most of the numbers are better right now under Barry. The who, how, and why are all subjective. We all obviously like to debate these things, which is why we are here.

 

[Dantés]

I was playing the same role. Two devils. You were pointing out that Pettine had Zadarius and Jaire, but I think both DCs had things that the other didn't have. My take was that there is no easy way to parse it all out cleanly to say that one is better than the other.


Coaches and players both deserve credit. My point is that it is hard for us to say that it is mainly the coach or mainly the player. Campbell and Douglas are both in prove-it situations, so did they re-dedicate themselves, are the coaches making the difference, is it just the right situation for the right guy, or a combination of all the above.

My overall point is that comparing stats between the two DCs only proves one fact - that most of the numbers are better right now under Barry. The who, how, and why are all subjective. We all obviously like to debate these things, which is why we are here.

Absolutely, they're subjective.

My point is that a player playing better now is not the same thing as a player being gone because they've been hurt.

In other words, Pettine having Jaire and Z available is a clear and huge advantage to him as a DC.

And if a player has been middling to bad, or just slumping, and then improves dramatically after a change of scenery, it almost certainly has a good deal with do with the system and coach.

 

[Schultz]

I enjoy the topic. My other question that comes to mind is this.
Barry lost his best Pass Rusher and best Perimeter CB for most of his 1st season. Where would these rankings be had both played this year? I think it’s a reasonable argument to make that Barry has done more with less (or at least matched with less)

I also picked up on our ranking dropping partly because the league Defenses have obviously improved this season (or Offenses have regressed etc.) See YPC etc..

ps. I wrote this before your 2nd post Dante. I see where you eluded your Z n J. Many Defenses would regress heavily losing their best Cover CB and Edge as we both noted.

But Pettine did not have this version of Gary as well as Campbell and Douglas.

 

[Dantés]

I would argue that Campbell and Douglas suddenly playing far and away their best football late in their 20’s is more of a credit to Barry than anything.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers ranking fifth in the league in points allowed despite missing Z and Alexander for most of the season is pretty impressive. I didn't like the team hiring Barry but in my opinion he has done a marvelous job and has definitely presented an upgrade over Pettine.

 

[gopkrs]

I think Pettine used Preston all wrong and it showed up in his play and affected the whole D. But he could not see it and kept doing the same thing.

 

[Phil Young]

Round pegs in round holes. Not square pegs in round holes. yes will work but not as well

Put the right player in the right place.