Clusters

[Dantés]

It seems the front office and coaching staff are pretty high on Kentrell Brice.

That could be true, but it's difficult to say as we're talking about a new GM and a new DC.

 

[sschind]

New Mock:

1. Browns: S. Darnold, QB, USC- The combine hype around Barkley has subsided and it's become clear that they're taking their pick of the QB's.
2. Giants: J. Rosen, QB, UCLA- I don't understand why there is so much talk about the Giants taking someone other than a QB. Manning is 37 and in decline. I'm sure they don't plan on picking this high again any time soon. The time is now to land their next QB.
3. Jets (Trade): B. Mayfield, QB, OK- I may have the order of QB's mixed up, but I am confident that the first three picks will be signal callers.
4. Bills (Trade): J. Allen, QB, WYO- The Bills are on the move and need to get ahead of DEN to get one of the top QB's; I don't see why they would move up to 12 and then fail to go the rest of the way.
5. Broncos: Q. Nelson, G, ND- I don't actually think Jackson is totally outlandish here, but I'll have them pick up the best pure prospect in the draft to address a serious need on their line. I'm sure they'd love to trade out in this scenario, but I don't see it happening with the QB's gone.
6. Colts (Trade): S. Barkley, RB, PSU- The Colts have many needs, but RB happens to align here with a special prospect.
7. Buccaneers: B. Chubb, ED, NCSU- This isn't a great edge class, so the Bucs are likely to take their guy early if he's available. I think Chubb is a little overrated (would have ranked him behind Barnett last year), but it's a premium position and he's the best out there.
8. Bears: T. Edmunds, LB, VTU- The Bears have spent a ton of money this offseason, but linebacker is still a weakness. They have Danny Trevathan and basically nothing else. Edmunds freakish traits could get him drafted top 10 despite the lacking positional value.
9. 49ers: M. Fitzpatrick, DB, UA- The Niners have Tartt ready to step into Reid's SS role, but they need to upgrade on draft bust Jimmie Ward. Fitzpatrick would give them a premium option at FS and in the slot.
10. Raiders: D. Ward, CB, OSU- Oakland has signed a couple of stop-gap veterans at corner, but they have a dire need for youth and someone with slot coverage skills. Ward is the best corner in the class.
11. Dolphins: L. Jackson, QB, LOU- The Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back but he's an inherited QB who, at 29, has never taken the next step. I would not be surprised if Gase wants his own pick to mold, and Jackson's talent is tantalizing.
12. Browns (Trade): C. Williams, OT, UT- Williams isn't the BPA here, but OT has become a really scarce commodity in the NFL and the Browns have a big need. They paid a lot of money to the mediocre Chris Hubbard, and they have Shon Coleman who was a liability last year. Williams was uneven in 2017, but very good prior.
13. Redskins: D. James, S, FSU- James is my big slider here and this pick therefore becomes a slam dunk. The Skins are awful at safety and James is BPA by a decent margin. The only reason why I think he could slide a bit is that he's best off closer to the LOS or in a two high look (he isn't really a single high safety).
14. Packers: The first player in my cluster, Denzel Ward, is off the board. So let's consider the other options:
    1. R. Smith, LB, UGA: Smith is one of the best pure prospects in this class, but at a position of lower value. His size is just OK at 6'1" 235, but he's extremely athletic and explosive. He's one of the best coverage linebackers in this class, and he truly embodies the oft-overused phrase "sideline to sideline" speed. He also reportedly possesses a lot of football-intelligence and leadership qualities. He would be a good option next to Martinez and could emerge as a tone-setting leader who wears the green dot and never leaves the field. The last thing I'll add is that Pettine's defenses have traditionally used the inside linebackers more creatively than your traditional 3-4 defense.
    2. J. Alexander, CB, LOU: The current hole at cornerback cannot be ignored, so I think the Packers need to consider the next best option after Ward. For me, that's Alexander. Alexander is short at just a shade over 5'10", but he's thickly built at 196 lbs and one of the best athletes at the position this season. He missed large chunks of 2017, but in his 314 snaps played PFF recorded a 17.7 passer rating allowed which was the best in the nation. In 2016, his last full season, he had 9 PBU and 5 INT which is terrific ball production. He is one of the most physical tackling corners in the class and a good punt returner to boot. The missed time in 2017 clouds just how good of a prospect he really is. While not my first choice, I wouldn't mind it either.
    3. H. Landry, ED, BC: Landry is probably the best pure edge rusher in this draft class. His athletic skills are elite and put him in rare company with guys like Von Miller and Demarcus Ware. He was dogged by ankle issues in 2017 and thus didn't repeat his stellar 2016 season (though there are some who argue that he wasn't playing as well before the injury). His down season makes him a bit of a risk, but the upside is tempting especially given the positional value. On the field, he will need to grow as a run defender and develop some secondary rush strategies for when the speed rush around the corner stalls.

Those would be my considerations at #14. I really love Vita Vea, but after signing Wilkerson I can't see continuing to add to the DL when there are other good options. I'm not as excited about guys like Davenport or Hughes as I am Landry and Alexander.

I'm feeling pretty confident that Smith will make it to the Packers pick. I could easily see them passing to addressing a higher need/value position. But he would also be a really safe selection with an obvious role in the defense right away. Given his skills, he could also help address some coverage and pass rush weaknesses.

The only thing I can say about this is that there will be some very happy GMs after pick #5 comes off the board if it falls this way.

 

[GleefulGary]

It seems the front office and coaching staff are pretty high on Kentrell Brice.

He's talented but dude cannot stay healthy.

 

[Dantés]

Last year, the top 3 Packers inside linebackers played the following snaps:

1. Blake Martinez: 982
2. Jakes Ryan: 507
3. Joe Thomas: 107
4. Total: 1596

These 1596 snaps for the top 3 inside linebackers came in a season with about 1055 total defensive snaps. So that's about 151% of the total.

In Pettine's two seasons at the head of the Browns, his top 3 inside linebackers played the following snaps:

2014-

1. Karlos Dansby: 814
2. Christian Kirksey: 684
3. Craig Robertson: 661
4. Total: 2159

2015-

1. Karlos Dansby: 1032
2. Christian Kirksey: 568
3. Craig Robertson: 382
4. Total: 1982

In 2014, the Browns had a total of about 1160 snaps on defense, and 1051 in 2015. So that would be 186% and 188% respectively.

The point here is that Pettine has traditionally used true inside linebackers quite a bit more than Capers ever did, who was more inclined to use DB's in linebacker roles.

I think it's more likely that he moves Jones into a true safety role and looks for a starting inside linebacker with more athleticism and coverage skills than Martinez/Ryan possess. If they wanted to use the 14th pick on the position, that would be Roquan Smith.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

He's talented but dude cannot stay healthy.

Brice had bad luck with injuries last season but played in all 16 games in 2016.

 

[GleefulGary]

Brice had bad luck with injuries last season but played in all 16 games in 2016.

I feel like I remember him having to leave games because of stingers and what not. I could be wrong.

His style of play and his body type don't always line up. He's really talented, but I do have concerns about his long term durability.

 

[Dantés]

Here's what I'm thinking for the first three rounds right now. I realize some of these players seem optimistic at their respective slots, but I have my reasons for thinking they may slide a bit. And that's the beauty of clusters. Someone will be there.

#14: Assuming that 4 QB's, Barkley, Nelson, and Chubb go before they pick, the Packers are guaranteed that at least one of the following will be there. Smith and Landry are my favorite options.

• Denzel Ward, CB, OSU
• Derwin James, DB, FSU
• Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, UA
• Roquan Smith, ILB, UGA
• Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, VTU
• Harold Landry, ED, BC
• Josh Jackson, CB, IOWA

#45: One of the two corners has a chance to be there over size; Hernandez fits the Packers type outside of being a little short.

• Mike Hughes, CB, UCF
• Jaire Alexander, CB, LOU
• D.J. Moore, WR, MAR
• Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
• Rashaan Evans, ILB, UA
• Lorenzo Carter, ED, UGA
• Josh Sweat, ED, FSU

#76:

• M. Stewart, DB, UNC
• D. Dawson, CB, FLA
• A. Miller, WR, MEM
• A. Corbett, OL, NEV
• D. Armstrong, ED, KAN
• F. Warner, ILB, BYU
• I. Thomas, TE, UI

#101:

• J. Noteboom, OL, TCU
• P. Nickerson, CB, TUL
• I. Yiadom, CB, BC
• D. Hamilton, WR, PSU
• C. Herndon, TE, MIA
• S. Griffin, LB, UCF
• R. Freeman, RB, OR

 

[Dantés]

Here's my final prediction and hope for next week, Thursday:

Round 1, Pick 14:

• My Pick: M. Fitzpatrick, DB, UA-- Fitzpatrick would offer immediately help in the slot and versatility to play safety and dime linebacker. He's a playmaker and tone-setter, playing with his hair on fire.
• Dream Option: D. Ward, CB, OSU-- Ward is a perfect fit for Pettine's defense, but I don't think he falls.
• Other Options: As I mocked out the first round, the other options I liked included--
  • J. Jackson, CB, IA
  • L. Vander Esch, LB, BSU
  • C. Ridley, WR, UA

Round 2, Pick 45:

• My Pick: J. Sweat, ED, FSU-- Sweat is a supremely talented edge rusher who was miscast as more of a 5T in college. If put in a better position, he should be a much better pro.
• Dream Option: D. Moore, WR, MAR-- Moore's YAC ability and explosive athleticism would be excellent additions to the offense, but I think he goes top 40.
• Other Options:
  • A. Corbett, OL, NEV
  • C. Kirk, WR, TAMU
  • D. Chark, WR, LSU
  • L. Carter, ED, UGA
  • S. Hubbard, ED, OSU

Round 3, Pick 76:

• My Pick: A. Miller, WR, Memphis-- Miller is a great athlete and really refine receiver. He can play inside and outside and is one of the better route runners in this class. He profiles as a Z or slot and could be a good #2 option.
• Other Options:
  • M. Gallup, WR, CSU
  • F. Warner, LB, BYU
  • I. Yiadom, CB, BC
  • K. Turay, ED, RUT

Round 4, Pick 101:

• My Pick: J. Noteboom, OL, TCU-- Noteboom checks the athletic boxes that the Packers look for. He has OT length while still being short enough to work inside to guard if need be.
• Other Options:
  • D. Pettis, WR, UW
  • M. Stewart, DB, UNC
  • D. Armstrong, ED, KAN
  • S. Griffin, LB, UCF

Round 4, Pick 133:

• My Pick: O. Burks, LB, VAN-- Burks switched positions yearly at Vandy which never allowed him to settle in to any given spot. But he's highly talented and seems like a natural WILB.
• Other Options:
  • P. Nickerson, CB, TUL
  • J. Moore, WR, MIZZ
  • C. Herndon, TE, MIA

I’ll stop there. What I’d really like to see is some trade ups in the middle rounds so that we could secure multiples of the middle round clusters.