Clusters

[Dantés]

Pre-Combine, who are your favorites? I’ve only researched enough for the first couple of rounds right now.

For #14, I’m assuming that Darnold, Rosen, and at least one other QB are gone in the top 13. Add to that Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, Edmunds, and Fitzpatrick as guys I’m assuming will go before the Packers pick.

My cluster:

1. D. James, S, Florida State
2. C. Ridley, WR, Alabama
3. V. Vea, DT, Washington
4. D. Ward, CB, Ohio State
5. R. Smith, LB, Georgia

Now technically, that would only total 13 players. So it's possible that all of them are gone by #14, though quite unlikely. However, the combine is going to change a lot. It will hurt some and help others (especially medicals, which we are not privy to). The guys I'm most interested in following at the combine are:

• H. Landry, ED, Boston College: If he tests like Miller or Beasley, he would certainly leap up on my list, perhaps to #1.
• M. Davenport, ED, UTSA: If he's an elite athlete at his size, is he worth the risk as a raw, smaller school player?
• J. Jackson, CB, Iowa: Does he have adequate speed to go along with the playmaking skills? I'm not talking about anything elite, but in the 4.5's?
• C. Williams, OT, Texas: How long is he? Are his agility numbers good enough to mitigate concerns over a down 2017?
• R. Evans, LB, Alabama: How big is he? Does he offer the size/length/athleticism to be a viable situational pass rusher at the next level?

At #45:

1. L. Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
2. J. Alexander, CB, Louisville
3. D. Goedert, TE, South Dakota State
4. J. Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
5. D. Moore, WR, Maryland
6. M. McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
7. D. Armstrong, ED, Kansas
8. J. Bates, S, Wake Forest

 

[Poppa San]

How is this thread any different than any of the other -- who do you like -- threads that populate this board? I'll leave this open for a response or seven.

 

[GleefulGary]

How is this thread any different than any of the other -- who do you like -- threads that populate this board? I'll leave this open for a response or seven.

It's more specific to what round we're in. Sometimes discussion helps people nail down what they think, who they like, more. Nothing wrong with more discussion.

If people don't like it, they won't respond. If they do, they will. It's self moderating!

 

[Dantés]

How is this thread any different than any of the other -- who do you like -- threads that populate this board? I'll leave this open for a response or seven.

I don’t know Poppa... would you say the same thing if someone made a thread for people to post their Packers specific mocks? Because this is like my version of that.

 

[Poppa San]

would you say the same thing if someone made a thread for people to post their Packers specific mocks?

Don't we already have mock threads? Or does it just seem that way? {really, it's pre-coffee and I haven't skimmed the titles to refresh the memory yet this morning}

Nothing wrong with more discussion.

No disagreement here. Thing is on any given slow day I can click on ten random active threads and read the same one or two discussions.

 

[Dantés]

Jeff Holland (Auburn) is a really interesting EDGE prospect. 6'2" 250 with 10 sacks, 22 hurries, and 4 FF this most recent year. But he's something of a one year wonder. Some are predicting that he'll test really well and others that he's not a plus athlete. It will be something to watch. I generally eschew bad athlete pass rushers, especially high in the draft. It's usually a losing proposition. But if he brings plus traits to that production, you're talking about a top 50 player.

 

[Dantés]

Post-Combine:

• #14:
  • D. Ward, CB, OSU
  • R. Smith, LB, UGA
  • J. Alexander, CB, LOU
  • V. Vea, DL, UW
  • H. Landry, ED, BC

• #45:
  • D. Moore, WR, MAR
  • M. Gesicki, TE, PSU
  • D. Cain, WR, CLEM
  • J. Sweat, ED, FSU
  • L. Carter, ED, UGA
  • D. Goedert, TE, SDSU
  • C. Davis, CB, AUB

• #76:
  • M. Andrews, TE, OK
  • J. Washington, WR, OKST
  • D. Armstrong, ED, UK
  • F. Warner, LB, BYU
  • M. Stewart, DB, UNC
  • D. Dawson, CB, FLA

 

[GleefulGary]

I'd throw Ejiofor in at #76.

 

[Dantés]

I want to see his numbers.

 

[AmishMafia]

I want to see his numbers.

It's #53

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[Mondio]

It's #53

that's technically 1 number. but I also see a #44 so I'd go with 53 and 44 as his numbers.

 

[Poppa San]

that's technically 1 number. but I also see a #44 so I'd go with 53 and 44 as his numbers.

I don't see the 44. I make out a 14.

 

[Dantés]

New Mock:

1. Browns: S. Darnold, QB, USC- The combine hype around Barkley has subsided and it's become clear that they're taking their pick of the QB's.
2. Giants: J. Rosen, QB, UCLA- I don't understand why there is so much talk about the Giants taking someone other than a QB. Manning is 37 and in decline. I'm sure they don't plan on picking this high again any time soon. The time is now to land their next QB.
3. Jets (Trade): B. Mayfield, QB, OK- I may have the order of QB's mixed up, but I am confident that the first three picks will be signal callers.
4. Bills (Trade): J. Allen, QB, WYO- The Bills are on the move and need to get ahead of DEN to get one of the top QB's; I don't see why they would move up to 12 and then fail to go the rest of the way.
5. Broncos: Q. Nelson, G, ND- I don't actually think Jackson is totally outlandish here, but I'll have them pick up the best pure prospect in the draft to address a serious need on their line. I'm sure they'd love to trade out in this scenario, but I don't see it happening with the QB's gone.
6. Colts (Trade): S. Barkley, RB, PSU- The Colts have many needs, but RB happens to align here with a special prospect.
7. Buccaneers: B. Chubb, ED, NCSU- This isn't a great edge class, so the Bucs are likely to take their guy early if he's available. I think Chubb is a little overrated (would have ranked him behind Barnett last year), but it's a premium position and he's the best out there.
8. Bears: T. Edmunds, LB, VTU- The Bears have spent a ton of money this offseason, but linebacker is still a weakness. They have Danny Trevathan and basically nothing else. Edmunds freakish traits could get him drafted top 10 despite the lacking positional value.
9. 49ers: M. Fitzpatrick, DB, UA- The Niners have Tartt ready to step into Reid's SS role, but they need to upgrade on draft bust Jimmie Ward. Fitzpatrick would give them a premium option at FS and in the slot.
10. Raiders: D. Ward, CB, OSU- Oakland has signed a couple of stop-gap veterans at corner, but they have a dire need for youth and someone with slot coverage skills. Ward is the best corner in the class.
11. Dolphins: L. Jackson, QB, LOU- The Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back but he's an inherited QB who, at 29, has never taken the next step. I would not be surprised if Gase wants his own pick to mold, and Jackson's talent is tantalizing.
12. Browns (Trade): C. Williams, OT, UT- Williams isn't the BPA here, but OT has become a really scarce commodity in the NFL and the Browns have a big need. They paid a lot of money to the mediocre Chris Hubbard, and they have Shon Coleman who was a liability last year. Williams was uneven in 2017, but very good prior.
13. Redskins: D. James, S, FSU- James is my big slider here and this pick therefore becomes a slam dunk. The Skins are awful at safety and James is BPA by a decent margin. The only reason why I think he could slide a bit is that he's best off closer to the LOS or in a two high look (he isn't really a single high safety).
14. Packers: The first player in my cluster, Denzel Ward, is off the board. So let's consider the other options:
    1. R. Smith, LB, UGA: Smith is one of the best pure prospects in this class, but at a position of lower value. His size is just OK at 6'1" 235, but he's extremely athletic and explosive. He's one of the best coverage linebackers in this class, and he truly embodies the oft-overused phrase "sideline to sideline" speed. He also reportedly possesses a lot of football-intelligence and leadership qualities. He would be a good option next to Martinez and could emerge as a tone-setting leader who wears the green dot and never leaves the field. The last thing I'll add is that Pettine's defenses have traditionally used the inside linebackers more creatively than your traditional 3-4 defense.
    2. J. Alexander, CB, LOU: The current hole at cornerback cannot be ignored, so I think the Packers need to consider the next best option after Ward. For me, that's Alexander. Alexander is short at just a shade over 5'10", but he's thickly built at 196 lbs and one of the best athletes at the position this season. He missed large chunks of 2017, but in his 314 snaps played PFF recorded a 17.7 passer rating allowed which was the best in the nation. In 2016, his last full season, he had 9 PBU and 5 INT which is terrific ball production. He is one of the most physical tackling corners in the class and a good punt returner to boot. The missed time in 2017 clouds just how good of a prospect he really is. While not my first choice, I wouldn't mind it either.
    3. H. Landry, ED, BC: Landry is probably the best pure edge rusher in this draft class. His athletic skills are elite and put him in rare company with guys like Von Miller and Demarcus Ware. He was dogged by ankle issues in 2017 and thus didn't repeat his stellar 2016 season (though there are some who argue that he wasn't playing as well before the injury). His down season makes him a bit of a risk, but the upside is tempting especially given the positional value. On the field, he will need to grow as a run defender and develop some secondary rush strategies for when the speed rush around the corner stalls.

Those would be my considerations at #14. I really love Vita Vea, but after signing Wilkerson I can't see continuing to add to the DL when there are other good options. I'm not as excited about guys like Davenport or Hughes as I am Landry and Alexander.

I'm feeling pretty confident that Smith will make it to the Packers pick. I could easily see them passing to addressing a higher need/value position. But he would also be a really safe selection with an obvious role in the defense right away. Given his skills, he could also help address some coverage and pass rush weaknesses.

 

[brandon2348]

I'd be happy with any of these 3 players.

 

[Dantés]

I'd be happy with any of these 3 players.

Which would you choose if you had to?

 

[brandon2348]

Which would you choose if you had to?

Probably Smith because I think he is the best player of the bunch. I like Alexander but not sure i like at 14. Im gonna throw a curveball in this though. If the "Petttine Plan" is to run some heavy 4-3 I could see Davenport being in the conversation as I see him as a nice option for a 4-3 end and move around a bit.

 

[Dantés]

Probably Smith because I think he is the best player of the bunch. I like Alexander but not sure i like at 14. Im gonna throw a curveball in this though. If the "Petttine Plan" is to run some heavy 4-3 I could see Davenport being in the conversation as I see him as a nice option for a 4-3 end and move around a bit.

Davenport is weird as a pass rusher. He has the frame of a 43DE, but he is much better as a stand up rusher. I don't think Davenport is a crazy idea, but he's not one of my top choices.

I would have a really hard time deciding between Smith and Landry in that situation.

 

[brandon2348]

Davenport is weird as a pass rusher. He has the frame of a 43DE, but he is much better as a stand up rusher. I don't think Davenport is a crazy idea, but he's not one of my top choices.

I would have a really hard time deciding between Smith and Landry in that situation.

If were gonna stick to 3-4 heavy then I like Landry over Davenport. Concerned about Davenport in space (3 cone) . Might take time to develop into 4-3 end but thats where I see him transitioning best. Landry looks much better in space and moves real fluid for his size. Landry appears to be plug and play as 3-4 OLB and the most finished, polished product.

Its really gonna come down to what Pettine's plans are.

 

[Dantés]

Dorance Armstrong Jr. is a really interesting prospect.

He did very little as a pass rusher this last season after posting 10 sacks in 2016. From what I’ve read, it’s attributable to the way he was deployed, being asked to be a run first defender instead of a pass rusher.

Athletically, he’s a little intriguing because his two best metrics are the two that tend to correlate best to pass rush success: 3 cone and broad jump. Neither are amazing, but both are solid. His 7.12 3C is in the 67th% and his 118” broad is in the 68th.

What’s also interesting is his build. He’s nearly 6’4” and 257 lbs and his arms are darn near 35” long (if you don’t know, that’s crazy long— longer than most offensive tackles). That’s a lot of length/size for such an agile player (his 4.23 SS is in the 87th%). I’m not in love with the guy, but he’s certainly got my attention.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would have a really hard time deciding between Smith and Landry in that situation.

I would definitely prefer Landry as he addresses a much bigger need than Smith.

 

[Dantés]

I would definitely prefer Landry as he addresses a much bigger need than Smith.

I see how edge rusher is the higher value position, but I’m not sure I agree that it’s the bigger need. They really don’t have anyone to play WILL linebacker. Martinez is a good run defender, but he’s limited. Ryan is just a lesser version of him. Joe Thomas is gone, I believe. Unless Pettine wants to use Jones as the WILL, it’s a big need in its own right.

Now, pass rusher is certainly a more premium position than off-ball linebackers which is why I wrestle between Smith and Landry. What further complicates matters for me is that Pettine’s defenses traditionally do a ton with the inside linebackers. They’re asked to contribute to the pass rush especially. Smith’s explosive movement skills would make him ideal in that role.

I honestly have no idea what I would do right now if I had to pick between them. The good news is that it’s not my choice.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I see how edge rusher is the higher value position, but I’m not sure I agree that it’s the bigger need. They really don’t have anyone to play WILL linebacker. Martinez is a good run defender, but he’s limited. Ryan is just a lesser version of him. Joe Thomas is gone, I believe. Unless Pettine wants to use Jones as the WILL, it’s a big need in its own right.

Now, pass rusher is certainly a more premium position than off-ball linebackers which is why I wrestle between Smith and Landry. What further complicates matters for me is that Pettine’s defenses traditionally do a ton with the inside linebackers. They’re asked to contribute to the pass rush especially. Smith’s explosive movement skills would make him ideal in that role.

I honestly have no idea what I would do right now if I had to pick between them. The good news is that it’s not my choice.

The Packers might get by with Josh Jones primarily lining up as the WILL linebacker. The team is in desperate need of depth at outside linebacker as it's unrealistic to expect Matthews and Perry to stay healthy all season though. Therefore I would definitely prefer to draft an edge rusher in the first round.

 

[AmishMafia]

Dorance Armstrong Jr. is a really interesting prospect.

He did very little as a pass rusher this last season after posting 10 sacks in 2016. From what I’ve read, it’s attributable to the way he was deployed, being asked to be a run first defender instead of a pass rusher.

Athletically, he’s a little intriguing because his two best metrics are the two that tend to correlate best to pass rush success: 3 cone and broad jump. Neither are amazing, but both are solid. His 7.12 3C is in the 67th% and his 118” broad is in the 68th.

What’s also interesting is his build. He’s nearly 6’4” and 257 lbs and his arms are darn near 35” long (if you don’t know, that’s crazy long— longer than most offensive tackles). That’s a lot of length/size for such an agile player (his 4.23 SS is in the 87th%). I’m not in love with the guy, but he’s certainly got my attention.

From my recombine mock:

3.14 Dorance Armstrong OLB Stood out on a very poor defense. Offenses focused on him with multiple blockers and running away from him. Tough to judge - probably will shoot up the boards at the combine. Very athletic and plays aggressively fast. Other Uchenna Nwosa OLB

www.packerforum.com/threads/amish-mock-part-deux.78184/#

A guy to keep an eye on is Terrell Edmunds. Tremaine brother. He is a very similar measureables to Derwin James maybe even slightly more athletic. I keep seeing him later in mock a but I think he will go in the 2nd. If TT was still in charge, I think he would be a target.

Look at his comps
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/terrell-edmunds

 

[GleefulGary]

If we play Jones at ILB, we'll have to have somebody to play safety. I think I agree with you though, I'd go with Landry.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If we play Jones at ILB, we'll have to have somebody to play safety. I think I agree with you though, I'd go with Landry.

It seems the front office and coaching staff are pretty high on Kentrell Brice.