Best choice for AR back up

[HardRightEdge]

I'm actually with Pete Dougherty believing Boyle will beat out Kizer this Preseason.

That wouldn't be hard.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Jeremiah has a premonition as well, plugging Lock into pick #30 in his most recent mock from yesterday.

Are you sure a little birdie didn't whisper in your ear?

The fact Gutekunst interviewed the guy and tried to do the same with Jones, I wouldn't rule it out if he falls that far given the evident interest in a QB.

I'm pretty much at the stage where an OT at #12 or at a minor trade down spot is the most likely outcome for the first pick. But given the number of needs, question marks and who happens to be in their contract years with cap space tightening in 2020, I'm going to say something I never thought I'd ever say:

Now that even QB is in play, #30 on down could be "best player available" regardless of position group.

I'm done guessing on what happens after the first pick. I do have to say, however, that when the inevitable QB interview question comes up, "how would you feel about sitting on the bench for 3 or 4 years if it came to that," I don't think there is a good answer. "Hell no" might be the best one and that in itself is a problem.

This Drew Lock stuff is all smoke and mirrors. Gute is trying to force a trade back for more picks. I've continually said he needs 12-14 picks to totally complete his soft rebuild. If he can't make it happen through Lock/Jones I'm sure he has a contingency option. There's no way Drew Lock survives til 30th.

Let's not kid ourselves, the following QB needy teams would have their shot at Lock if Green Bay passes him up at 12th:

Dolphins
Redskins
Giants(Twice)
Raiders(Twice)

That's not to include what teams may trade back into the 1st Round such as the Broncos, Bengals, and Patriots if he starts to slide.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This Drew Lock stuff is all smoke and mirrors. Gute is trying to force a trade back for more picks.

That doesn't make sense. The best argument you could make for bluffing is to get somebody to trade up above you, putting one more guy on the board.

I could just as easily call it a double-reverse bluff: The fact Lock took the interview might put off interested parties thinking, "Wait, what? He's must be in it for the paycheck. I'm not taking a guy content to sit on the bench for years." Voila! He falls to #30.

But I won't call it that.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

That doesn't make sense. The best argument you could make for bluffing is to get somebody to trade up above you, putting one more guy on the board.

I could just as easily call it a double-reverse bluff: The fact Lock took the interview might put off interested parties thinking, "Wait, what? He's must be in it for the paycheck. I'm not taking a guy content to sit on the bench for years." Voila! He falls to #30.

But I won't call it that.

It makes perfect sense. Packers have two picks in the 1st Round, so teams are left guessing, "Do they take him at 12th or do they hope he lasts til 30th?" Once the Packers are on the clock at 12th, teams will come calling. Lock is viewed as a potential franchise QB, so Gute can fleece the potential trade partner for their 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th this year. If we're talking pics in 2020 the price goes higher.

At 30th teams will try and trade in front of the Packers for Lock. That means a player or players Gute is targeting might hang on til the Packers come back on the clock. Or a team may trade the Packers out of the 1st Round for compensation that should equal two pics in the 2nd or 3rd Round to maximize value. This is the obviously the least preferred scenario but Gute can make it work. Again this is highly unlikely given the teams I previously mentioned who need a QB, ESPECIALLY the Dolphins who have an overweight Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Redskins with the combination of Case Keenum and Colt McCoy.


THE ONLY way I see Gute actually drafting Lock is having a HARD verbal commitment from Rodgers that he's retiring by 2023. It would be flat out idiotic to draft Lock just for him to never start for the Packers and wind up playing for somewhere else after being an understudy of the best QB in the league for 5 years. To be honest I'm pretty sure Lock doesn't want to wait til he's nearly 30 before he makes his first NFL start either.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It makes perfect sense. Packers have two picks in the 1st Round, so teams are left guessing, "Do they take him at 12th or do they hope lasts til 30th?" Once the Packers are on the clock at 12th, teams will come calling. Lock is viewed as a potential franchise QB, so Gute can fleece the potential trade partner for their 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th this year. If we're talking pics in 2020 the price goes higher.

It still doesn't make any sense. As soon as Gutekunst starts listening to offers for #12 he'd he'd show he's not all that interested in Lock and expose the ruse. It's hard to sell the idea you love a guy if you're willing to trade him. Besides, if you think it's a bluff, why wouldn't other GM's? That puts you in a awkward position logically speacking.

Anyway, nobody is going to buy the Packers taking a QB at #12 unless Rodgers has some terminal disease. #30 or #44 is another matter.

The best scenario is two teams below the Packers are interested in going up to #12 for Lock creating a competitive bidding situation. That requires no bluffing.

By the way, opinions on Lock are quite mixed. But every year there are reaches for QBs and this should be no different. That doesn't preclude the possibility Lock drops like a rock which could be the first line in some doggerel.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think you draft the heir when you assume Rodgers has 1-2 years left. I'd say using a pick this year would be wasting the chance for added depth.

At this point I'd rather see how Kizer does. Rodgers didn't look like much his first two seasons either.

 

[OldSchool101]

Kizer has this year to redeem himself. He was ill equipped but we should give him allowance being in a new system.
I’d still advocate a QB 3rd day draft, as long as one presents itself reasonable in value.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm content with Kizer and Boyle(especially) to continue to develop for the foreseeable future. Keep in mind that Kizer and Boyle are only in their 3rd and 2nd seasons respectively. I'm quite interested in seeing what effect new Head and Position Coaches to go along with a revamped offensive system will have on their growth.

I'm actually with Pete Dougherty believing Boyle will beat out Kizer this Preseason.

I don't feel confident about either Kizer or Boyle but with Rodgers hopefully being back to full health there's no need to select a quarterback early.

It makes perfect sense. Packers have two picks in the 1st Round, so teams are left guessing, "Do they take him at 12th or do they hope he lasts til 30th?" Once the Packers are on the clock at 12th, teams will come calling. Lock is viewed as a potential franchise QB, so Gute can fleece the potential trade partner for their 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th this year. If we're talking pics in 2020 the price goes higher.

THE ONLY way I see Gute actually drafting Lock is having a HARD verbal commitment from Rodgers that he's retiring by 2023. It would be flat out idiotic to draft Lock just for him to never start for the Packers and wind up playing for somewhere else after being an understudy of the best QB in the league for 5 years. To be honest I'm pretty sure Lock doesn't want to wait til he's nearly 30 before he makes his first NFL start either.

There's no way the Packers make any other team believe they will select a quarterback at #12.

Even if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season most likely Lock would be a free agent a year before that.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I don't feel confident about either Kizer or Boyle but with Rodgers hopefully being back to full health there's no need to select a quarterback early.

Have a little faith. We as fans have turned into the same thing as NFL Front Offices, unless the guy shows he's an All-Pro out the gate he's discarded for the next 20-something hopeful. Both Boyle and Kizer have more than just a few things to like about their game. McFleur, Getsy, and Hackett might be the combination that gets them over the hump.

There's no way the Packers make any other team believe they will select a quarterback at #12.

Even if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season most likely Lock would be a free agent a year before that.

I believe so too, Gute's strategy is odd but I'm buying into it because whatever he's trying to do, he seems very deliberate with it. I can't wait for the "aha moment" a week from now.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Have a little faith. We as fans have turned into the same thing as NFL Front Offices, unless the guy shows he's an All-Pro out the gate he's discarded for the next 20-something hopeful. Both Boyle and Kizer have more than just a few things to like about their game. McFleur, Getsy, and Hackett might be the combination that gets them over the hump.

As I just mentioned in another thread it's extremely tough in this day and age to develop a backup quarterback. A veteran might present a better option to backup Rodgers moving forward.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

Trade Kizer & Boyle each for future picks, sign a free agent backup this year until 2021, then draft a successor to Rodgers in 2022.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Kizer is maybe worth a 4th at best now. Boyle has no trade value.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

Kizer is maybe worth a 4th at best now. Boyle has no trade value.

Boyle will have trade value if his preseason outings are productive. Kizer could probably still go for a 3rd to a desperate team.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Trade Kizer & Boyle each for future picks, sign a free agent backup this year until 2021, then draft a successor to Rodgers in 2022.

The Packers don't have enough cap space to sign a decent veteran backup quarterback.

Boyle will have trade value if his preseason outings are productive. Kizer could probably still go for a 3rd to a desperate team.

I think you grossly exaggerate the trade value of both Kizer and Boyle.

 

[sschind]

If the Packers are looking at drafting a QB early the only thing that makes sense is a first rounder. The 5th year option means that if Rodgers plays through 2022 the packers can get out of his contract with some dead cap but still a significant savings and still have the understudy for his 5th year. They could get out of Rodgers deal after 2020 but it would mean a significant cap hit.

Still I would expect to see AR as our starting QB for at least the next 4 years so if we draft a QB in the second he would likely be a FA as Captain says. Drafting a QB late would most likely mean he needs time to develop and wouldn't likely supplant Kizer or Boyle for at least a year maybe even 2 then you are looking at either a capable backup for two years before losing him to FA, Trading him to recoup some draft capital and then drafting ARs true successor or at that point deciding to move on from AR.

I doubt Lock last until 30 with the way teams are going after QBs. They were also trying to bring in Daniel Jones but from what have been reading his stock is shooting up so he may not be there at 30 either. In fact some mocks have him going before Lock.

I just don't know if I want to use an early pick on a backup QB who may never play a meaningful down for us. We are in a very good position to load this team up with some very good players at multiple positions of need. Maybe even better if we can swing a trade down from 12 to the mid teens. I get that you don't pass on true talent but there are plenty of skeptics who question whether ANY of the QBs in this years draft are that talent. Obviously all it takes is for Gute to believe it and while I highly doubt they pull the trigger at #12 I think Gute is maybe planning his Ted Thompson option if a guy he likes (Lock or Jones) falls as far as #30.

There is always the injury factor and while I don't think you draft scared you have to consider it. I would think a 1st round rookie would likely be the #2 QB especially as the season wore on. They may be listed as #3 but in week 8 if Rodgers went down I think the rook would get the nod. I don't know if Boyle or Kizer will ever develop into anything I would have confidence in if pressed into long term action but a first round rookie you would certainly hope would be that guy for at least the next 3 or 4 years after his rookie season.

on a scale of 1-5 1 being hate the move 5 being love the move I'd have to say I'd be at 2

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If the Packers are looking at drafting a QB early the only thing that makes sense is a first rounder. The 5th year option means that if Rodgers plays through 2022 the packers can get out of his contract with some dead cap but still a significant savings and still have the understudy for his 5th year. They could get out of Rodgers deal after 2020 but it would mean a significant cap hit.

Still I would expect to see AR as our starting QB for at least the next 4 years so if we draft a QB in the second he would likely be a FA as Captain says.

Actually the Packers releasing Rodgers after the 2022 season wouldn't take any dead money counting against the cap. They would even save significant cap space by cutting him a year early.

With that being said I don't consider either of those scenarios to be realistic at this point and therefore I'm definitely not in favor of using a first rounder on a quarterback.

 

[ShockwaveRider]

Jeremiah has a premonition as well, plugging Lock into pick #30 in his most recent mock from yesterday.

Are you sure a little birdie didn't whisper in your ear?

No.....no.....I was watching some ESPN sports show or another on satellite teevee and they stated that Drew Lock might possibly still be available at 12.

I'm as big an AR12 fan as anybody but what happens if AR12 goes down AGAIN? (I actually prefer Tim Boyle to Deshone Kizer.)

You never know.....holding BF4's clipboard for three years or whatever it was certainly didn't hurt AR12s career or legacy now did it?

Maybe Drew Lock wouldn't mind not playing for a lousy team and being maimed in his rookie year? Wishful thinking I know.

I'm just wondering if it's really wise to pass up on Drew Lock at 12, assuming he's still available.

Shockwave

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Lmao. Brett in a landslide

Bart Starr.

He won more championships, and is every bit as game-ready as Brett is.

 

[sschind]

Actually the Packers releasing Rodgers after the 2022 season wouldn't take any dead money counting against the cap. They would even save significant cap space by cutting him a year early.

With that being said I don't consider either of those scenarios to be realistic at this point and therefore I'm definitely not in favor of using a first rounder on a quarterback.

You are right, I looked at the wrong column.

I'm with you on the not using a first rounder on a QB but if they don't I hope they skip the position until after round 5. After that its even more of a crap shoot so why not.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I don't understand why everyone's fawning over Lock so much. I agree he's probably going to be a very good QB. I liken him to maybe a Jameis Winston, maybe even a little better without the character issues. But as long as Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa are possible prospects in the 2020 and 2021 NFL Drafts Respectively, I'd much rather go all in for either prospect when Rodgers is closer to Retirement. One more year later in a 5 year contract could mean either heir starting in year four to see what he can do before paying the piper. Two years later and we've got a Super Bowl ring while paying either guy for peanuts.

 

[sschind]

I don't understand why everyone's fawning over Lock so much. I agree he's probably going to be a very good QB. I liken him to maybe a Jameis Winston, maybe even a little better without the character issues. But as long as Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa are possible prospects in the 2020 and 2021 NFL Drafts Respectively, I'd much rather go all in for either prospect when Rodgers is closer to Retirement. One more year later in a 5 year contract could mean either heir starting in year four to see what he can do before paying the piper. Two years later and we've got a Super Bowl ring while paying either guy for peanuts.

I agree but the problem is drafting at #32 in 2020 and 2021 we are most likely going to have to give up a lot to move up and get one of those guys.

Maybe we can get someone to trade us their #1 pick again but even that had us picking at #30. Just watch, we will trade for the Jets #1 in 2020 and wind up with picks number 31 and 32. As long as ours is the 32 I won't mind.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

While optimistic, I don't see us winning it all in 2019, 2020 may be more probable. I expect a Divisional Round loss, because our latest Draft Class just needs more time to put it together.

For Tagovailoa, I'd trade my 1st in 2020 and 2021.

For Lawrence, I'd trade 2020, 2021, and 2022.

If Gute can win this year in the Draft and set the tone for the next 3-5 years I'm not as concerned with not drafting in the 1st for a couple years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm just wondering if it's really wise to pass up on Drew Lock at 12, assuming he's still available.

It would be a terrible idea to draft Lock at #12. The Packers need to surround Rodgers with as much talent as possible over the last few years of his career and not invest their highest pick in 10 years into his backup.

I'm with you on the not using a first rounder on a QB but if they don't I hope they skip the position until after round 5. After that its even more of a crap shoot so why not.

Actually I expect the Packers to have Kizer and Boyle compete for the backup job.

 

[PackerDNA]

Personally, I think we just go with what we have now . If Rogers goes down again we're done anyway.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Personally, I think we just go with what we have now . If Rogers goes down again we're done anyway.

Unfortunately that's most likely true.