Available at #30 - who do you take?

AmishMafia

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Supposing you are Gute and the players listed are all graded the same and one should be available at #30.


OT Josh Jones
ILB Patrick Queen
WR Reager
DE AJ Epenesa
WR Denzel Mimms
QB Jordan Love
DL Ross Blacklock
CB Jaylon Johnson

Also, Cleveland wants to trade up for someone and has offered 2.10 and 3.10 for 1.30 and 6.30 if their guy is there.

List your options


Me:
ILB Queen. He hasnt played much in college, so he is just beginning to scratch the surface. He will have the most impact on improving this team. Having his range and coverage skills will make the DBs job that much easier. His speed and aggressiveness will be a tremendous presence and compliment the existing LB corps nicely.


Jones - could be a big need soon
Reagor - biggest offensive impact
Epenesa
Trade
Blacklock
Mimms
Johnson
Love
 

GleefulGary

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Sorry, didn't read the trading part.

I'd take that trade without thinking.

If I couldn't trade, I'm taking Jones.
 

Fredrik87

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Denzell Mims.

I just can't help comparing his combine numbers to Julio Jones's they are extremely similar and they're about the same size as well though Mims is slightly lighter.

His senior bowl was great and he has one of the sickest most absurd highlight reals I've ever seen.

I'm not concerned about his rout running he showed he was capable of running a more complex rout tree than what he did at Baylor at the senior bowl.
 

Sunshinepacker

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Reagor. Pretty much addresses every need the team currently needs at WR; however, I'm giving serious thought to the trade and drafting Tyler Johnson or Aiyuk at 2.10.
 

Dantés

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Supposing you are Gute and the players listed are all graded the same and one should be available at #30.


OT Josh Jones
ILB Patrick Queen
WR Reager
DE AJ Epenesa
WR Denzel Mimms
QB Jordan Love
DL Ross Blacklock
CB Jaylon Johnson

Also, Cleveland wants to trade up for someone and has offered 2.10 and 3.10 for 1.30 and 6.30 if their guy is there.

List your options


Me:
ILB Queen. He hasnt played much in college, so he is just beginning to scratch the surface. He will have the most impact on improving this team. Having his range and coverage skills will make the DBs job that much easier. His speed and aggressiveness will be a tremendous presence and compliment the existing LB corps nicely.


Jones - could be a big need soon
Reagor - biggest offensive impact
Epenesa
Trade
Blacklock
Mimms
Johnson
Love

I'd be a little torn between Jones and the trade down, but I probably lean trade down.

Of the actual options, I would rank them:

Jones
Queen
Mims
Johnson
Reagor

And then three guys that I don't really want.
 
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Jones is a close 2nd for me.

We have never had a Queen type ILB or a really good impact ILB in a long time. Would love to watch that.

I think for Gute it would be the trade down.
 

Dantés

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Jones is a close 2nd for me.

We have never had a Queen type ILB or a really good impact ILB in a long time. Would love to watch that.

I think for Gute it would be the trade down.

I can see how Queen would be the #1 for some people. He actually has cover skills and the ability to play away from the LOS. For me, Jones is just a rock solid prospect at a premium position, so that's the tie break.
 

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Queen or Jones I'm going to change to Queen.
 
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elcid

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For me it would be Queen, Mims, Jones, tradeback in that order
 

felix145

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I love Mims, but Reagor is the missing part in this offense. Speed, explosiveness, agility and he is a return weapon.
 
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tynimiller

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*quick note Cleveland has the 9th pick in the second round not 10th I believe.

1,000% making that trade. Jones is the only player that makes me hesitate, but I am not desperate at OT and strongly LOVE the idea of having a pick at #41, #62, #74 and #94....give me 4 top 100 picks and I'm freaking ecstatic and that trade is very much in our favor IMO.
 
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AmishMafia

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*quick note Cleveland has the 9th pick in the second round not 10th I believe.

1,000% making that trade. Jones is the only player that makes me hesitate, but I am not desperate at OT and strongly LOVE the idea of having a pick at #41, #62, #74 and #94....give me 4 top 100 picks and I'm freaking ecstatic and that trade is very much in our favor IMO.
I did say, if their guy is there. I recall a GM talking saying that they have multiple trades for their
Picks negotiated before the draft. Depending on how the draft unfolds, some of the trades are executed and most are not. In this instance, Cleveland is trading up for a safety or OT Jones. Those are 2 big needs for them.

We are giving up the 5th year option, which I think adds significant value to the trade.
 

tynimiller

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I did say, if their guy is there. I recall a GM talking saying that they have multiple trades for their
Picks negotiated before the draft. Depending on how the draft unfolds, some of the trades are executed and most are not. In this instance, Cleveland is trading up for a safety or OT Jones. Those are 2 big needs for them.

We are giving up the 5th year option, which I think adds significant value to the trade.

Dont get me wrong while I feel it is in our favor, any weighed value of a trade involving picks should always benefit the one going back more than up. I just don't have any hesitate at all with this scenario. Now if Jeudy dropped or Chase Young I'd change my tune LOL
 
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Dont get me wrong while I feel it is in our favor, any weighed value of a trade involving picks should always benefit the one going back more than up. I just don't have any hesitate at all with this scenario. Now if Jeudy dropped or Chase Young I'd change my tune LOL
Exactly! The trade value chart only goes so far. If Juedy drops to 20, nobody would bat an eye if we traded our 1st and 2nd to go up and get him. If we want to trade up to 28 to get Juedy because we know 29 wants him, and we give up 1st and 2nd . Trade chart says that is a horrible deal. You have to really look at what you are getting.
 

tynimiller

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To be fair for either Jeudy or Young to fall there, it has to be because GB hired hitmen to take out all the other teams LOL
 

Dantés

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One guy to keep an eye on is Ezra Cleveland. I'm not saying that I would agree with it, but I would not be shocked if GB had a higher grade on him than Josh Jones, just because of fit. His agility numbers are crazy, and he's a perfect fit in the offense.

At 6'6" 311#, Cleveland had a 7.26 3C and a 4.46 SS. Those are elite numbers. Here are all of the tackles drafted in the top 3 rounds since 2000 who had sub 7.5 3C and sub 4.6 SS:
  • Andre Dillard, 1st, 2019, Eagles, 7.44, 4.40
  • Brian O'Neill, 2nd, 2018, Vikings, 7.14 3C, 4.50 SS
  • Kolton Miller, 1st, 2018, Raiders, 7.34, 4.49
  • Garret Bolles, 1st, 2017, Broncos, 7.29, 4.55
  • Jake Fisher, 2nd, 2015, Bengals, 7.25, 4.33
  • Taylor Lewan, 1st, 2014, Titans, 7.39, 4.49
  • Jake Matthews, 1st, 2014, Falcons, 7.34, 4.47
  • Ja'Wuan James, 1st, 2014, Dolphins, 7.42, 4.56
  • Lane Johnson, 1st, 2013, Eagles, 7.31, 4.52
  • Anthony Castonzo, 1st, 2011, Colts, 7.24, 4.40
  • Nate Solder, 1st, 2011, Patriots, 7.44, 4.34
  • Jared Veldheer, 3rd, 2010, Raiders, 7.40, 4.51
  • Winston Justice, 2nd, 2007, Eagles, 7.31, 4.53
  • Eric Winston, 3rd, 2006, Texans, 7.47, 4.44
  • Robert Gallery, 1st, 2004, Raiders, 7.42, 4.38
That's not a list of superstars, but there aren't many busts, and there are a lot of good starting tackles.

Andre Dillard hasn't started yet, so we can't speak to him.

Miller and Bolles both struggled early, but they were expected to, and have both begun to come around.

Robert Gallery busted at tackle, but was a solid starting guard for a long time.

Jake Fisher is the only complete bust in the list, as he couldn't keep weight on and tried to switch to TE.

So in a list of 14 (excluding Dillard), 10 of these guys are or were starting tackles ranging anywhere from good to great. That number may be 12/14 depending on what happens with Bolles and Millers.

That's a hit rate of 71% to 86%-- in other words, a strong correlation with success.

Basically, if you're this type of athlete at tackle and your tape says you're top 100, the odds that you'll flop in the NFL are super low relative to the normal draft bust rate.

Cleveland fits this bill, and actually is probably better than what he showed last year. He looked strong (to me) against Florida State to start the year, but he suffered a turf toe injury in that game and played the rest of the year with it. He reported that there were weeks that he didn't practice once, but still played in the games, just because of the pain.

If the Packers were to take him at #30, there is a strong likelihood that they would have a good starting tackle for the next 9 years or so.
 
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One guy to keep an eye on is Ezra Cleveland. I'm not saying that I would agree with it, but I would not be shocked if GB had a higher grade on him than Josh Jones, just because of fit. His agility numbers are crazy, and he's a perfect fit in the offense.

At 6'6" 311#, Cleveland had a 7.26 3C and a 4.46 SS. Those are elite numbers. Here are all of the tackles drafted in the top 3 rounds since 2000 who had sub 7.5 3C and sub 4.6 SS:
  • Andre Dillard, 1st, 2019, Eagles, 7.44, 4.40
  • Brian O'Neill, 2nd, 2018, Vikings, 7.14 3C, 4.50 SS
  • Kolton Miller, 1st, 2018, Raiders, 7.34, 4.49
  • Garret Bolles, 1st, 2017, Broncos, 7.29, 4.55
  • Jake Fisher, 2nd, 2015, Bengals, 7.25, 4.33
  • Taylor Lewan, 1st, 2014, Titans, 7.39, 4.49
  • Jake Matthews, 1st, 2014, Falcons, 7.34, 4.47
  • Ja'Wuan James, 1st, 2014, Dolphins, 7.42, 4.56
  • Lane Johnson, 1st, 2013, Eagles, 7.31, 4.52
  • Anthony Castonzo, 1st, 2011, Colts, 7.24, 4.40
  • Nate Solder, 1st, 2011, Patriots, 7.44, 4.34
  • Jared Veldheer, 3rd, 2010, Raiders, 7.40, 4.51
  • Winston Justice, 2nd, 2007, Eagles, 7.31, 4.53
  • Eric Winston, 3rd, 2006, Texans, 7.47, 4.44
  • Robert Gallery, 1st, 2004, Raiders, 7.42, 4.38
That's not a list of superstars, but there aren't many busts, and there are a lot of good starting tackles.

Andre Dillard hasn't started yet, so we can't speak to him.

Miller and Bolles both struggled early, but they were expected to, and have both begun to come around.

Robert Gallery busted at tackle, but was a solid starting guard for a long time.

Jake Fisher is the only complete bust in the list, as he couldn't keep weight on and tried to switch to TE.

So in a list of 14 (excluding Dillard), 10 of these guys are or were starting tackles ranging anywhere from good to great. That number may be 12/14 depending on what happens with Bolles and Millers.

That's a hit rate of 71% to 86%-- in other words, a strong correlation with success.

Basically, if you're this type of athlete at tackle and your tape says you're top 100, the odds that you'll flop in the NFL are super low relative to the normal draft bust rate.

Cleveland fits this bill, and actually is probably better than what he showed last year. He looked strong (to me) against Florida State to start the year, but he suffered a turf toe injury in that game and played the rest of the year with it. He reported that there were weeks that he didn't practice once, but still played in the games, just because of the pain.

If the Packers were to take him at #30, there is a strong likelihood that they would have a good starting tackle for the next 9 years or so.
Not that high on Cleveland, and I dont think the Packers are either.

Turner, Jenkins, and now Wagner all have some common traits. Strong and aggressive. The knock on Cleveland is he is weak and not very aggressive. I think he will go mid 3rd and maybe into the 4th.

For this reason, that is why I am pimping Isaiah Wilson. His only issue is weight. He is good at 350. If he can drop 25 lbs he will be outstanding. If he gains another 25, he is done.
 

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Not that high on Cleveland, and I dont think the Packers are either.

Turner, Jenkins, and now Wagner all have some common traits. Strong and aggressive. The knock on Cleveland is he is weak and not very aggressive. I think he will go mid 3rd and maybe into the 4th.

For this reason, that is why I am pimping Isaiah Wilson. His only issue is weight. He is good at 350. If he can drop 25 lbs he will be outstanding. If he gains another 25, he is done.

Cleveland isn't lasting until Rd 3.

He isn't even lasting til 62. C'mon lol.
 

thequick12

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Reagor. Pretty much addresses every need the team currently needs at WR; however, I'm giving serious thought to the trade and drafting Tyler Johnson or Aiyuk at 2.10.

If you knew you could get Aiyuk at 42 itd be cool but idk if he'll be there. Kinda feels like he's gonna end up being a first rounder.

Of that list I think it would be, and with the 30th pick in the 2020 nfl draft the green bay bay packers select quarterback Jordan Love Utah State... I'm not sure how I feel about that personally but it really seems as though if Love is there Gute is running to the podium. With Rodgers saying he wants to play after this current contract in Green Bay, I think I'd rather see a guy like linebacker Patrick Queen Lsu.
 

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Not that high on Cleveland, and I dont think the Packers are either.

Turner, Jenkins, and now Wagner all have some common traits. Strong and aggressive. The knock on Cleveland is he is weak and not very aggressive. I think he will go mid 3rd and maybe into the 4th.

For this reason, that is why I am pimping Isaiah Wilson. His only issue is weight. He is good at 350. If he can drop 25 lbs he will be outstanding. If he gains another 25, he is done.

Most offensive tackles that fit a zone scheme, especially outside the top 20 or so, come out with the knock that they need to get stronger. It's very typical. Nearly all of them that are as gifted as Cleveland do end up developing into plus players at the tackle position.

Your issue with Wilson for the Packers, more than weight, is his fit in the type of offense they're trying to run. I think asking this guy to engage and block on the move, especially on outside zone, would be a disaster.
 
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Most offensive tackles that fit a zone scheme, especially outside the top 20 or so, come out with the knock that they need to get stronger. It's very typical. Nearly all of them that are as gifted as Cleveland do end up developing into plus players at the tackle position.

Your issue with Wilson for the Packers, more than weight, is his fit in the type of offense they're trying to run. I think asking this guy to engage and block on the move, especially on outside zone, would be a disaster.
I think we will disagree on Wilson's ability to move and block in space.

I think you are looking too much at those nice combine numbers. Whereas you can build strength, you cant make a person aggressive. Cleveland has a smaller ceiling than Wilson.

The only thing about Wilson is his weight control. If he was 25# lighter, he is in the first round. The weight question is the only reason I dont guarantee you he has a better career than Cleveland.
 

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Out of all the options you gave, I would chose Josh Jones, the OT from Houston. We really need to get a young T for the future.
 

Dantés

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I think we will disagree on Wilson's ability to move and block in space.

I think you are looking too much at those nice combine numbers. Whereas you can build strength, you cant make a person aggressive. Cleveland has a smaller ceiling than Wilson.

The only thing about Wilson is his weight control. If he was 25# lighter, he is in the first round. The weight question is the only reason I dont guarantee you he has a better career than Cleveland.

I think it's funny to say I'm looking too much at combine numbers when I've watched him play and talked about it.

But if we should ignore the numbers, do you want to explain to me why there is such a strong correlation with success there? Is that just a big statistical anomaly? Because if we want to talk odds, the plodding behemoths with questionable balance like Wilson have been far more likely to bust.

Weight is far from the only thing. Balance, foot speed, hand placement, lunging... there's lots there.
 

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