at what pick, if any, would you consider Jeffery Simmons...

sschind

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... and do you think he will be there?

There is talk he could be back by mid season. I know it would be rough but I think someone could get a real bargain. I could see a team like the Browns going for him. They have some real talent but I don't think they are SB contenders yet. Get him in the second and have him healthy certainly by next season and that defense could be incredible. I would have to say if he falls to 75 we would have to think about it and if he falls to 114 you take him. I have no idea if he would be there at either. 75 maybe 114 I highly doubt it.
 

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This I see a real good question and one of the wild cards of the draft. If I were Gute I would consider him at #44. But I think someone will go for him earlier. Perhaps one of the better teams with a loaded roster and not many immediate holes to fill.
 

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Once he sees the footage of him punching the girl, Dorsey will trade up to #1 and take him.
 

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Id take him at 30. I may trade back from 12 to about 24ish to take him. I think he is a top 7ish player in this draft. No telling his value with the injury though without a detailed injury report.

His impact is worth the risk.
 
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thequick12

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I'd take if available starting at #44 although I don't think that he'll be there
 

sschind

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When I posted I had forgotten about his punching the girl. That might drop him down a bit as well. Honestly when I was going through the mocks I wasn't reallt thinking about him so I never really paid much attention. That and most mocks don't go beyond the first round. Chad Reuters latest mock has him going to the raiders at 35. I guess my initial thought of 75 is most likely out of the question.

The thing is most 2nd round DL are seen as neediing some time to develop anyway so why not.
 

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Id take him at 30. I may trade back from 12 to about 24ish to take him. I think he is a top 7ish player in this draft. No telling his value with the injury though without a detailed injury report.

His impact is worth the risk.

Absolutely.

If he was healthy, I'd take him at 12. I would easily, easily, take him at 30.

He reminds me so much of Fletcher Cox. I love his game.
 

Mondio

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WTF was he thinking with that girl? It looks bad, and I usually give no pass at all for that, but though it looks like he's pummeling her with about 20 shots to the head while she's down, I kind of get the impression he wasn't really hitting her either or she wouldn't have gotten back up. Looked like his was messing around rather than trying to hurt anyone. Still incredibly stupid either way.

anyway, it shows you how much I pay attention to prospects before they're drafted. I had to look him up and that's the first time I saw the video.
 

captainWIMM

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... and do you think he will be there?

There is talk he could be back by mid season. I know it would be rough but I think someone could get a real bargain. I could see a team like the Browns going for him. They have some real talent but I don't think they are SB contenders yet. Get him in the second and have him healthy certainly by next season and that defense could be incredible. I would have to say if he falls to 75 we would have to think about it and if he falls to 114 you take him. I have no idea if he would be there at either. 75 maybe 114 I highly doubt it.

I don't believe Simmons will drop below the second round. So if the Packers want to take a chance on him they would have to at least use the 44th pick to draft him. It's possible he could be gone at the point as well though.
 

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At #30 for sure. I think he is a top 5 player. Be aggressive. ACL injuries are not the concern they used to be.
 

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WTF was he thinking with that girl? It looks bad, and I usually give no pass at all for that, but though it looks like he's pummeling her with about 20 shots to the head while she's down, I kind of get the impression he wasn't really hitting her either or she wouldn't have gotten back up. Looked like his was messing around rather than trying to hurt anyone. Still incredibly stupid either way.

anyway, it shows you how much I pay attention to prospects before they're drafted. I had to look him up and that's the first time I saw the video.
It was a grown woman beating up his little sister. He was in high school, so she was at most a jr. He repeatedly tried to break them up and she kept after his sister.

At some point the woman is responsible for her actions. I admire a kid who fights for his family. Did he go too far in the heat of the moment defending his sister? Yes. But that's less of an issue than a thug who doesnt respect woman.

Read up on him. If not for this one incident when he was 17, he should be considered one of the highest character guys in the draft.

I have no problem with him even if he moves in next door. I'm just going to be very nice to his sister should she visit.
 

sschind

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I don't believe Simmons will drop below the second round. So if the Packers want to take a chance on him they would have to at least use the 44th pick to draft him. It's possible he could be gone at the point as well though.


I'm getting that impression the more I read about him and the more mocks I am seeing going past the first round.

When I first started to seriously look at the mock drafts I had honestly forgotten about him. I knew there was a very highly touted prospect (top 10 maybe) who was injured but I never really paid attention to his name. I never saw him show up in the first round mocks so I forgot about him even more. That's why I said 75 or 114 in my original post. Now I realize that it is unlikely he makes it past the second round.

I don't know if I would take him at 30 but I would consider him at 45. It would be tough passing on a guy who might be a day 1 starter but if the consensus is that this year is for the most part a rebuild year getting a guy with his talent for the latter part of the season (perhaps) and for next year would be a big help for next year.
 
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I’d trade up in the second round. 35-40 range would give us a realistic shot. I think he’ll be gone by our #44.
 
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captainWIMM

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It would be tough passing on a guy who might be a day 1 starter but if the consensus is that this year is for the most part a rebuild year getting a guy with his talent for the latter part of the season (perhaps) and for next year would be a big help for next year.

I highly doubt anyone inside 1265 considers the 2019 season to be a rebuild year. With Simmons possibly being able to contribute late during his rookie campaign I might be fine with spending a second rounder on him but wouldn't advocate to select him at #30.
 

hasamikun

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I would be fine with taking him at 30. He has Top 5 talent and only the ACL ruined this. I see more and more mocks drafting him between 20-32, Packers may have a realistic chance.
He is a beast OL and could be playing his first snaps mid-season. It is worth a shot.
 

captainWIMM

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I would be fine with taking him at 30. He has Top 5 talent and only the ACL ruined this. I see more and more mocks drafting him between 20-32, Packers may have a realistic chance.
He is a beast OL and could be playing his first snaps mid-season. It is worth a shot.

It would be awfully tough for a rookie, even for one as talented as Simmons, to have an impact after missing all of the offseason and most likely several weeks of regular season play.
 

thequick12

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It would be awfully tough for a rookie, even for one as talented as Simmons, to have an impact after missing all of the offseason and most likely several weeks of regular season play.

If he can't still make an impact despite those challenges then he was never worthy of the top 10/top 5 player in the draft talk. And thus is certainly not worth taking injured in the first round and probably not at #44 either.

However I disagree and think he likely would make an immediate impact even if he were only able to be healthy toward the end of the pup list window. I think in that scenario he's likely a major contributor come playoff time. A full 9 months from now
 

captainWIMM

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If he can't still make an impact despite those challenges then he was never worthy of the top 10/top 5 player in the draft talk. And thus is certainly not worth taking injured in the first round and probably not at #44 either.

However I disagree and think he likely would make an immediate impact even if he were only able to be healthy toward the end of the pup list window. I think in that scenario he's likely a major contributor come playoff time. A full 9 months from now

In my opinion you should significantly lower your expectations about rookie defensive linemen as it's tough to have a major impact even while being healthy for the entire offseason program let alone for a player who won't be able to practice deep into the regular season. No matter if that guy was projected to be drafted in the top five or 10.
 

Mondio

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It would be a surprise if he came on in the 2nd half despite missing all of TC and the first half. Even with 5 year vets, their best football is played late october and beyond and not in September for a reason. Heck look at Breeland last year. He came in and everyone was wondering WTF they brought him in for, and he's a vet. It takes time, it takes reps, it takes getting knocked around a bit to get into playing shape.

Toss in the fact he's never faced this level of competition before, I just don't see him jumping in and having much of an impact on the iDL. Those guys usually take 2-3 years before they hit their stride, even the good ones hardly do much but flash now and again in year 1 and that's with training camp and a full season of opportunity.
 

thequick12

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In my opinion you should significantly lower your expectations about rookie defensive linemen as it's tough to have a major impact even while being healthy for the entire offseason program let alone for a player who won't be able to practice deep into the regular season. No matter if that guy was projected to be drafted in the top five or 10.

I fully expect that whatever team drafts Williams and Oliver to get a significant return on their investment in a top 5 or 10 dlinemen in the first year.

I only mention those 2 as I'm assuming you are referring to idl because top5/10 defensive ends make an impact in year one all the time. Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Bradley Chubb etc.

But daron Payne was taken just outside the top 10, (13) and he made an impact as a rookie to the tune of 56 tackles and 5 sacks. Vita Vea was taken 12th and he also made an impact in year one, 28 tackles and 3 sacks. Aaron Donald went 13 in 2014 and had 48 tackles and 9 sacks in year one. In 2013 Sheldon Richardson went 13 and finished with 78 tackles and 3.5 sacks as a rookie. Also in 13 star lotulelei went 14 and he put up 42 tackles and 3 sacks. Bj Raji went 9 in 2009 and while he had the least statistically impact of these idl he still had a good season for a traditional NT. 25 tackles 1 sack 5 tfl

So judging by somewhat recent history I'd say you draft an idl close to the top 10 let's say in the top 15. You should expect an impact in year one. Because although not many have been drafted that high the ones that have, have provided their teams with solid first years.
 

thequick12

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It would be a surprise if he came on in the 2nd half despite missing all of TC and the first half. Even with 5 year vets, their best football is played late october and beyond and not in September for a reason. Heck look at Breeland last year. He came in and everyone was wondering WTF they brought him in for, and he's a vet. It takes time, it takes reps, it takes getting knocked around a bit to get into playing shape.

Toss in the fact he's never faced this level of competition before, I just don't see him jumping in and having much of an impact on the iDL. Those guys usually take 2-3 years before they hit their stride, even the good ones hardly do much but flash now and again in year 1 and that's with training camp and a full season of opportunity.

We aren't talking about a player the level of brashaud breeland we are talking about a guy that was supposed to be picked in the top 5/10. Those guys are a lot different than the brashaud breelands of the NFL.

And you can see the list I compiled of idl that were considered top 5/10 predraft and went close to the top 10, within the top 15. I listed everyone that was drafted top 15 going back to 2013 and every single one made an impact year one. I added Raji to the list just because he was the last packers top 5/10 idl draft pick.

So I guess my conclusion is guys who have top 5/10 per draft buzz as idl and then are taken in the top 15 make an impact in year one. At least according to the last 5 drafts or so.
 

captainWIMM

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I fully expect that whatever team drafts Williams and Oliver to get a significant return on their investment in a top 5 or 10 dlinemen in the first year.

I only mention those 2 as I'm assuming you are referring to idl because top5/10 defensive ends make an impact in year one all the time. Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Bradley Chubb etc.

But daron Payne was taken just outside the top 10, (13) and he made an impact as a rookie to the tune of 56 tackles and 5 sacks. Vita Vea was taken 12th and he also made an impact in year one, 28 tackles and 3 sacks. Aaron Donald went 13 in 2014 and had 48 tackles and 9 sacks in year one. In 2013 Sheldon Richardson went 13 and finished with 78 tackles and 3.5 sacks as a rookie. Also in 13 star lotulelei went 14 and he put up 42 tackles and 3 sacks. Bj Raji went 9 in 2009 and while he had the least statistically impact of these idl he still had a good season for a traditional NT. 25 tackles 1 sack 5 tfl

So judging by somewhat recent history I'd say you draft an idl close to the top 10 let's say in the top 15. You should expect an impact in year one. Because although not many have been drafted that high the ones that have, have provided their teams with solid first years.

I would definitely expect an impact by a rookie interior defensive lineman picked in the top 10 or shortly afterwards able to participate in the entire offseason program. It's completely unrealistic when talking about a player not being able to practice well into the regular season though.
 

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We aren't talking about a player the level of brashaud breeland we are talking about a guy that was supposed to be picked in the top 5/10. Those guys are a lot different than the brashaud breelands of the NFL.

And you can see the list I compiled of idl that were considered top 5/10 predraft and went close to the top 10, within the top 15. I listed everyone that was drafted top 15 going back to 2013 and every single one made an impact year one. I added Raji to the list just because he was the last packers top 5/10 idl draft pick.

So I guess my conclusion is guys who have top 5/10 per draft buzz as idl and then are taken in the top 15 make an impact in year one. At least according to the last 5 drafts or so.
He's still not able to do anything. He's not in an offseason program. There are no OTA's, there will be no training camp. There will be no practice with the team for likely 6-8 weeks during the regular season for him either.

and there are plenty of highly rated players that never accomplish anything, year after year after year. The list that ends up being average or below in their careers is probably longer than the list of those that have any significant impact in year 1. It's not an impossibility, but I do find it highly unlikely he'd step in and have a significant impact. It would be 2-3 weeks of practice with no activation, then another 3,4 weeks of limited playing time. Toss him back out there with big snap loads and he's likely to just get hurt again. So he's out half a season and working his way back in the 2nd half on limited snaps. Impact would be minimal.
 

thequick12

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I would definitely expect an impact by a rookie interior defensive lineman picked in the top 10 or shortly afterwards able to participate in the entire offseason program. It's completely unrealistic when talking about a player not being able to practice well into the regular season though.

Ok, so this specific player will be about seven months removed from the date of his injury by the start of the regular season in September. By week 14 which is the latest a team could activate him to the 53 from pup list he'd be over 10 months removed from the injury and I'd assume at least 10 months removed from surgery.

I looked up recovery time from acl surgery, 2 to 6 months with it taking 9 months before you're at pre injury form. Now that's for a normal everyday joe or Jill not a NFL athlete. Even though he's 300 plus pounds I'd expect he should do better than the average regular guy but I'd also expect team drs to be cautious.

So realistically Simmons probably wouldn't even be on the 53 until somewhere close to week 14. What's he worth still #44 for me but I definitely would not take him before that
 

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