at what pick, if any, would you consider Jeffery Simmons...

[Mondio]

Ok, so this specific player will be about seven months removed from the date of his injury by the start of the regular season in September. By week 14 which is the latest a team could activate him to the 53 from pup list he'd be over 10 months removed from the injury and I'd assume at least 10 months removed from surgery.

I looked up recovery time from acl surgery, 2 to 6 months with it taking 9 months before you're at pre injury form. Now that's for a normal everyday joe or Jill not a NFL athlete. Even though he's 300 plus pounds I'd expect he should do better than the average regular guy but I'd also expect team drs to be cautious.

So realistically Simmons probably wouldn't even be on the 53 until somewhere close to week 14. What's he worth still #44 for me but I definitely would not take him before that

regular Joe's and their pre-injury form are nothing to brag about. It's a low bar Most of them couldn't do jack before the injury, so it's not a stretch to get them back to that level either. But even considering that, most regular Joe's are NOT without limitation even 9 months after injury.

If he's as talented as everyone thinks, I'm ok at 44 too, but i'm not expecting a lot in year 1. Even if he is in great shape coming off of IR

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Ok, so this specific player will be about seven months removed from the date of his injury by the start of the regular season in September. By week 14 which is the latest a team could activate him to the 53 from pup list he'd be over 10 months removed from the injury and I'd assume at least 10 months removed from surgery.

So realistically Simmons probably wouldn't even be on the 53 until somewhere close to week 14. What's he worth still #44 for me but I definitely would not take him before that

I'm a little bit confused right now, so you don't expect Simmons to have an impact in 2019 after all???

 

[wist43]

I highly doubt anyone inside 1265 considers the 2019 season to be a rebuild year. With Simmons possibly being able to contribute late during his rookie campaign I might be fine with spending a second rounder on him but wouldn't advocate to select him at #30.

If we hit on this years draft, we could be a year or two away.

Making the playoffs this year would be good progress... dont really view us as legit contenders this year.

 

[thequick12]

I'm a little bit confused right now, so you don't expect Simmons to have an impact in 2019 after all???

If he is healthy enough to play by that week 14 date. Then yes I'd expect him to make an impact in those final few games and the playoffs. That is if he is really a top5/10 talent, I'm not sure I believe he is I haven't watched enough of him to know.

However since the Packers have a notoriously cautious medical staff I'm not confident that they would clear him to play at all during 2019

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If we hit on this years draft, we could be a year or two away.

Making the playoffs this year would be good progress... dont really view us as legit contenders this year.

If the Packers hit on this year's draft they might be a legit contender in 2019 after all.

If he is healthy enough to play by that week 14 date. Then yes I'd expect him to make an impact in those final few games and the playoffs. That is if he is really a top5/10 talent, I'm not sure I believe he is I haven't watched enough of him to know.

Once again, I highly doubt Simmons would have a significant impact this season after missing the entire offseason program as well as most of the regular season. The reason behind drafting him nevertheless would be to get a top 10 talent despite having to redshirt him during his rookie campaign.

 

[thequick12]

If the Packers hit on this year's draft they might be a legit contender in 2019 after all.



Once again, I highly doubt Simmons would have a significant impact this season after missing the entire offseason program as well as most of the regular season. The reason behind drafting him nevertheless would be to get a top 10 talent despite having to redshirt him during his rookie campaign.

Well if you've watched him and you believe he's top 10 then I believe he would make an impact in the last few games/playoffs.

I'm not saying he plays 3 regular season games and has 6 sacks. I'm saying he has like one sack in those final 3 games and maybe 2 more in the playoffs, perhaps in a big moment during the game.

That's what I'm defining as making an impact I'm not sure what criteria you are using?

That being said I seriously consider taking him at #44 though it may be tough to pass on guys like wr aj brown, safety Darnell Savage, ol Dalton risner. But, I 100% take him if he's there in the 3rd round

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well if you've watched him and you believe he's top 10 then I believe he would make an impact in the last few games/playoffs.

I'm not saying he plays 3 regular season games and has 6 sacks. I'm saying he has like one sack in those final 3 games and maybe 2 more in the playoffs, perhaps in a big moment during the game.

That's what I'm defining as making an impact I'm not sure what criteria you are using?

That being said I seriously consider taking him at #44 though it may be tough to pass on guys like wr aj brown, safety Darnell Savage, ol Dalton risner. But, I 100% take him if he's there in the 3rd round

You mentioned that you would expect Simmons to have a major impact this season if he was able to play at the end of the year. I disagree and wouldn't expect him to even receive significant playing time.

Nevertheless he might be worth using a second rounder on him in the long haul.

 

[thequick12]

You mentioned that you would expect Simmons to have a major impact this season if he was able to play at the end of the year. I disagree and wouldn't expect him to even receive significant playing time.

Nevertheless he might be worth using a second rounder on him in the long haul.

I'm saying a major impact would be something along the lines of 2 sacks along with stout run defense. Over the final couple games and payoffs.

If you don't even think he would demand playing time not with his words but with his play in practice forcing the coaches to give him playing time.

If you don't think he's good enough to force the coaches hand like that then he is not a top 10 talent and he's not worth a second round pick. Top 10 talent forces coaches to put it on the field and it makes an immediate impact as soon as it gets on the field whether coming off of injury or not. That's why it's top 10 talent, because it's transcendent

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If you don't even think he would demand playing time not with his words but with his play in practice forcing the coaches to give him playing time.

If you don't think he's good enough to force the coaches hand like that then he is not a top 10 talent and he's not worth a second round pick. Top 10 talent forces coaches to put it on the field and it makes an immediate impact as soon as it gets on the field whether coming off of injury or not. That's why it's top 10 talent, because it's transcendent

It takes rookies selected in the top 10 some time to receive significant playing time even while being fully healthy for the offseason program. It's completely unrealistic to expect a defensive lineman to have an immediate impact after not being able to practice for more than a half a year during his rookie campaign.

 

[thequick12]

It takes rookies selected in the top 10 some time to receive significant playing time even while being fully healthy for the offseason program. It's completely unrealistic to expect a defensive lineman to have an immediate impact after not being able to practice for more than a half a year during his rookie campaign.

Not sure what you consider "some time" but every single player selected in the top 10 in 2018 expcept for #1 Baker Mayfield started from day one. It took Mayfield all the way until the 4th game of the season to supplant Taylor as the browns starter. Well actually I guess it took him til the 2nd half of the 3rd game but he got his first start week 4.

And they pretty much all preformed at a high level except for #10 Josh Rosen and #7 Josh Allen but even Allen had his moments, many of them.

I get none of them were dtackles but we've already discovered that every idl selected in or near the top 10 has been a significant contributor as a rookie since like 2009.

My point is it's fair to question whether a top 10 guy that misses most of the year rehabbing an injury will make an impact as a rookie. But it's been shown that top 10 talent players regardless of position don't take time to demand playing time and they make a significant impact for their teams right away.

I bet if I kept looking back to 2017, 16, 15 etc I'd find much more of the same in the top 10. And I'd be willing to bet that the guys who didn't demand playing time right away and didn't make an impact as rookies are well on their way to being called busts at this point. If you draft a top 10 talent he's supposed to play from day one and make an impact that's why they are top 10 guys.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Not sure what you consider "some time" but every single player selected in the top 10 in 2018 expcept for #1 Baker Mayfield started from day one. It took Mayfield all the way until the 4th game of the season to supplant Taylor as the browns starter. Well actually I guess it took him til the 2nd half of the 3rd game but he got his first start week 4.

And they pretty much all preformed at a high level except for #10 Josh Rosen and #7 Josh Allen but even Allen had his moments, many of them.

I get none of them were dtackles but we've already discovered that every idl selected in or near the top 10 has been a significant contributor as a rookie since like 2009.

My point is it's fair to question whether a top 10 guy that misses most of the year rehabbing an injury will make an impact as a rookie. But it's been shown that top 10 talent players regardless of position don't take time to demand playing time and they make a significant impact for their teams right away.

I bet if I kept looking back to 2017, 16, 15 etc I'd find much more of the same in the top 10. And I'd be willing to bet that the guys who didn't demand playing time right away and didn't make an impact as rookies are well on their way to being called busts at this point. If you draft a top 10 talent he's supposed to play from day one and make an impact that's why they are top 10 guys.

Once again, it doesn't matter that prospects selected in the top 10 who were able to fully participate in the offseason program made an immediate impact. That's to be expected from a rookie being drafted that early.

It's unrealistic to expect the same out of players like Simmons who won't be able to get on the field before most of the regular season has been played. It might be smart to compare him to Jaylon Smith when talking about expectations during his rookie campaign.

 

[thequick12]

Once again, it doesn't matter that prospects selected in the top 10 who were able to fully participate in the offseason program made an immediate impact. That's to be expected from a rookie being drafted that early.

Yes I agree that's what I've been saying.

You've been saying...

It takes rookies selected in the top 10 some time to receive significant playing time even while being fully healthy for the offseason program.

Pretty much sums it up right there in the course of 2 posts you've totally said the exact opposite thing.

And I would not say jaylon smith is an accurate comparison. Simmons has an acl, something I would never wanna deal with but something that is considered pretty mundane in today's NFL. While Smith had a nerve injury I believe and it was questioned whether he would ever regain feeling in his leg. That to me is a much more serious and uncertain thing.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes I agree that's what I've been saying.

While top 10 picks are expected to have an immediate impact it takes some of them time to make one while others don't ever live up to it in the NFL.

And I would not say jaylon smith is an accurate comparison. Simmons has an acl, something I would never wanna deal with but something that is considered pretty mundane in today's NFL. While Smith had a nerve injury I believe and it was questioned whether he would ever regain feeling in his leg. That to me is a much more serious and uncertain thing.

Jaylon Smith is a much better comparison for Simmons than any other player fully healthy for the entire offseason program. If you find another rookie making a major impact after missing most of his first regular season because of a torn ACL I might listen though.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'd take him with pick 30. He's a top 15 talent at a premium position AND, as important with an injured player, you get that fifth year option with the first round picks. You take him after the first round and you've really only got him signed for three effective seasons.

 

[OldSchool101]

Missing a full season is a serious matter. As we know the draft trades that involve future picks drop the grade an average of 1 round in general.

However waiting a year AND losing a year in salary and losing a year in the contract as far as production is critical and it’s a whole another situation. Then add to that injury and off field possible concerns and it’s getting Harry.

While I agree he’s a fine football player he’s a definitive risk. I just don’t like being in a compromising situation like this so it’s easy to say I wouldn’t draft him. However, there’s two points I’d make that lend credence to drafting him. He’s at worst a top 5 pick and at best #1 overall if healthy.
Likely he’d go top 3 imo IF he was 100%.
His offfield issue was when he was 18 years old and fortunately resulted in a misdemeanor charge. (I see that as different than a professional player who’s 21+ years old etc..) and also he immediately had shown remorse and made public apologies to the families affected. He’s also been a model citizen for 3 years now without any other concerns.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...ery-simmons-is-in-green-bay-on-a-top-30-visit

I think he’s got value somewhere in that #30/#44 range. It all depends who’s on the board for me. But we’re safe with him at #44. Heck some 2nd rounders barely see the field year 1 anyway, but the 5th year option is a good argument there for #30. I still believe we’re looking at a 2020 run IMO so it’s not detrimental that he’s not playing in 2019. If we get into the January 2020 playoffs it’s actually conceivable he’s back by then as a bonus.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Missing a full season is a serious matter. As we know the draft trades that involve future picks drop the grade an average of 1 round in general.

However waiting a year AND losing a year in salary and losing a year in the contract as far as production is critical and it’s a whole another situation.

I agree there's definitely risk involved with selecting Simmons but his 2019 salary while not playing isn't an issue.

Taking a look at last year's draft Dante Pettis, the 44th overall selection, made $1.16 million in 2018 but overall will only earn $6 million over four years. On the other hand Vita Vea, selected 12th, will make $14.8 million until 2021.

So while the Packers would actually have to pay Simmons a bit over a million while not playing for most of this year they would actually save close to $9 million over four years on a possible top 12 prospect.

 

[Hands]

With Simmons, you are getting a top 5 talent. He's at the least another Clark. It may be next year that he plays, but imagine the tandem of Clark and Simmons...

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With Simmons, you are getting a top 5 talent. He's at the least another Clark. It may be next year that he plays, but imagine the tandem of Clark and Simmons...

It's possible that Simmons develops into an elite player as well but I wouldn't feel comfortable with spending the 12th pick on him.

 

[GleefulGary]

I would be fine taking Simmons at 12. We have two first, and we could conceivably trade up to 21 or so from 30 if we have to. We can take a risk.

Simmons is the best DL not named Q Williams/Bosa in this draft, and he's not much behind them. He's a stud. We all know Mike Pettine loves pass rushing iDL, we all know the effect that has on a defense, and we know the Packers have been looking for one. Mike Daniels is in his last year here, and Simmons would be our best DL. Yes, better than Kenny Clark. He's a complete and total stud. Take him at 12 and be happy he fell.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would be fine taking Simmons at 12. We have two first, and we could conceivably trade up to 21 or so from 30 if we have to. We can take a risk.

In my opinion the Packers have too many pressing needs to use their highest pick in 10 years on a player possibly not contributing during his rookie season.

 

[elcid]

I would be fine taking Simmons at 12. We have two first, and we could conceivably trade up to 21 or so from 30 if we have to. We can take a risk.

Simmons is the best DL not named Q Williams/Bosa in this draft, and he's not much behind them. He's a stud. We all know Mike Pettine loves pass rushing iDL, we all know the effect that has on a defense, and we know the Packers have been looking for one. Mike Daniels is in his last year here, and Simmons would be our best DL. Yes, better than Kenny Clark. He's a complete and total stud. Take him at 12 and be happy he fell.

If we miss out on Oliver, I'd rather see the 12th pick being used on either Bush or any of the top offensive linemen. Im happy with taking Simmons/Gary/Tillery at 30, one is bound to be available at 30.

 

[GleefulGary]

In my opinion the Packers have too many pressing needs to use their highest pick in 10 years on a player possibly not contributing during his rookie season.

If they believe that Simmons is a top tier player, what's one year? We can trade up from 30.

If guys like J Williams, Hock, Bush, and so are gone, take the elite talent. We're not in a position to pass on it either.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If they believe that Simmons is a top tier player, what's one year? We can trade up from 30.

If guys like J Williams, Hock, Bush, and so are gone, take the elite talent. We're not in a position to pass on it either.

If Simmons is the only player left in the top tier I might feel comfortable with the Packers selecting him at #12.

As long as there's another one I would prefer Gutekunst to head in a different direction.

 

[GleefulGary]

If Simmons is the only player left in the top tier I might feel comfortable with the Packers selecting him at #12.

As long as there's another one I would prefer Gutekunst to head in a different direction.

I completely get that, and if we had only one first round pick I wouldn't want Simmons at all.

 

[OldSchool101]

This is just a guess.. but I think Simmons goes somewhere between 17-32. I still like our chances in a trade back into the teens of getting him and plus another 3rd round selection.