There is no "team to beat" yet. Training camp hasn't even started and we have no idea how people are doing in the offseason. Every team is hyping their chances at this time of year. I live in Seattle and the hype machine is in overdrive for the Seahawks right now.
I believe team management can only put their team in a position to contend for a championship - by hiring a strong and cohesive staff and by assembling a deep and talented roster with a highly capable QB. Thompson has achieved this and has put the Pack in a position to contend for a LONG time. The roster is deep, young, and he has not mortgaged the future by trading draft picks or by signing expensive free agents which jeopardize the ability to retain the best young people.
Beyond this, a team needs:
- few or "favorable" injuries. You can't lose your QB to injury and you can't have too many injuries at the same position (like the Packers had last year at DB)
- luck. Playing other teams when they are down, a lucky bounce here or there, etc
So, no the Packers are not the team to beat, but they are absolutely a contender. I can hardly wait for the season to start.