Amish Precombine Mock

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Our needs are Safety, LB, C, RB, and CB. I think we should restock the OL shelf after getting a Center. The draft is just too deep for OL to not load up on talent. I think Ryan will take a step next year and we may be good a RG. He seemed to be getting better. An offseason of being the guy, may do it for him. Think we will look at a couple late rounders who will also be STers with upside to be a S or LB.

Other than Cooper DeJean, I don’t know that any safety can come in and start and be a stud. We can always draft Nubin or . . . and if they are not working out, grab a veteran on cutdown day. So, I am advocating spending a little space on a proven player at Safety, and I think I see an opportunity at CB.

FA Jeff Okudah 1yr/$6M

Not sure how much he will bring. I don’t think it will be $12M which is what I saw somewhere else. He is an average player but there are a few stat categories where he looks good. Anyway, this one is a bit obvious with his relationship to new DC. Okudah does it on a 1 year deal to boost his value. Packers do it because if he lights it up next year, then Okudah could get a huge contract and the Pack ends up with an extra 3rd compensatory pick. Okudah was one of the more heralded CBs to come out in the last few years – we need to see if it was Hafley’s doing.

I have big hopes for Stokes. But don’t exactly want to risk a season on trusting him.

Xavier McKinney 4 years $50M

Fills our biggest need. We can’t gamble that Cooper DeJean falls to us. I think Nabin in the 2nd is possible, but will we suffer while he gets up to speed? Seems Gute doesn’t take such risks and will seek a FA. McKinney isn’t a great athlete, but still gets the job done. Very reliable.


The DRAFT:

1.25 Graham Barton OC/OG I don’t like our draft area. I don’t know if anyone is really worth the pick. Would love to trade back, but not sure any team would give up much unless a surprise drop. Would sit tight and take DeJean in my ideal situation, but doubt he will be there. Would consider a trade up if it costs a 3rd or less. Barton, though, is a perfect Packer Pick. He is very aggressive and can play all the positions, but probably better suited to the interior. Expect him to play at C, with Rhyan starting at RG, but if suddenly Myer comes on like gangbusters, then Barton can play RG – but I am not thinking that is likely.

2.41 Edgerrin Cooper LB – Had Kris Jenkins in here, but think Cooper is more of a need. Tough to say exactly how Hafley views our LB corps. But I am thinking he is going to want more speed and aggressiveness.

2.58 Mike Sainristil CB This guy isn’t getting much attention, but he probably will be. There are a bunch of CBs that are in this clump that will be going about now. Sainristil should be good in the slot.

3.88 Junior Colson LB We need some LBs. This isn’t a great draft for them, but there are a couple of names that we could land in this area that would work very well for us. Colson is a great athlete and an aggressive player.

3.91 Jaylen Wright (AaronJones2.0) RB Speedster. Decent receiver. Will be a RB that the defenses are always going to have to worry about breaking a big one. Has good vision, balance, and can plant/pivot/and blast in the blink of an eye and be gone. Thus AJ2.0. Our offense really moved well while Jones was healthy. Hopefully the new trainers will somehow keep them hammys unpulled – but we have to have a reliable backup weapon. Since I started typing this – I have now seen him on 2 Packer mocks.

4.127 Javon Foster OT – no needs in the draft for OT. But this is such a great OL draft that we can get a very high ceiling type player on day 3. Great athlete, very coachable, and a chance to sit and learn is a recipe for success.

5.168 Renaldo Green S/CB – great athlete, great balance, COD, and quickness. Big drawback is too much cushion as if he doesn’t trust his speed. Also, will have to work on his tackling.

6.204 Hunter Nourzad – OG/C – Has great tools to work with but was a late bloomer. Undraftably average in 2022 and improved significantly in 2023. His pass blocking will keep him off the field for a year or two. But if he continues to develop, he could be a great find.

6.216 Cody Simon WSLB Very athletic – will need to work on technique. Has the violence and instincts to make an impact. Little light at 235.

7.243 Sage Ryan S Very fast. Needs to bulk up and work on tackling technique. Aggressive – but inconsistent. Some focused coaching may bring him around. Else, should be a ST demon.

7.251 Tyler Grubbs – LB – small but very fast. Is aggressive and hard hitting. Projecting that if he puts on 10 lbs of muscle and doesn’t lose much of his 4.60 speed, he can be put to great use. Another interesting ST addition.

LT Walker, Foster
LG Jenkins, Jones
C Barton, Nourzad
RG Ryan, Nourzad
RT Tom, Nijman

WR Watson, Wicks, Reed, Doubs, Heath, Melton, Dubose
TE Musgrave, Kraft, Simms
QB Love, Clifford
RB Jones, Wright, Wilson

DE Smith, LVN
DL Clark, Wooden
DL Slayton, Wyatt
DE Gary, Brooks

SLB Walker, Cox, Grubbs
ILB Cooper, McDuffie
WLB Colson, Wilson, Simon

CB Alexander, Stokes, Valentine, Akudah, Sainristil
S McKinney, Johnson, Ford, Ryan, Green


To determine if these guys were reasonably available, I ran simulations on PFN. Everything was fine except I had Foster in the 3rd and Wright in the 4th. I could not get it to work that way, so I switched the picks around. Then it worked. My last 3 picks were not listed, so I picked 3 guys with really cool names.


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Storm Duck – Now its one of my favorites of all time
Nook Bradford – ‘Nook’? Must be nickname
Steele Chambers – something tells me he is a ‘Safe’ pick.
 

shockerx

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very thoughtful, i like it. Its close to what ive been doing with the first five picks. you have two OL which is good. Colson and Copper also. I was leaning towards the Washington tackle at 25...sometimes he gone. What did you do with Myers...didnt see him on roster....trade bait?. i also think the USC RB Lloyd good be sleeper.
 
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AmishMafia

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ery thoughtful, i like it. Its close to what ive been doing with the first five picks. you have two OL which is good. Colson and Copper also. I was leaning towards the Washington tackle at 25...sometimes he gone. What did you do with Myers...didnt see him on roster....trade bait?. i also think the USC RB Lloyd good be sleeper.
He gets a shot at a roster spot. I would try him out at OG and primary backup Center. Depends on how well the others do, but he would make a good 2nd stringer. He is on a rookie deal and a bargain, but has a lot of experience with the current line. Nice to have in case of an injury.
 

Thirteen Below

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I love not just the fact that you're prioritizing linebackers, but that you picked two of my favorites on Day Two. I'm honestly not sure about Sainristil, but as you say, he's one of 4 or 5 guys who fall into the same tier, and I would trust our staff to figure out which of them best fits our team. Love Jaylen Wright, and really like your philosophy on stocking up on OL in a year where they're thick as mosquitoes. This year's 4th Round OL is a 3rd Rounder last year or next year; take advantage of the disproportionate valuation.

But most of all... I really, really want a guy on our team named Storm Duck.
 
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AmishMafia

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I love not just the fact that you're prioritizing linebackers, but that you picked two of my favorites on Day Two. I'm honestly not sure about Sainristil, but as you say, he's one of 4 or 5 guys who fall into the same tier, and I would trust our staff to figure out which of them best fits our team. Love Jaylen Wright, and really like your philosophy on stocking up on OL in a year where they're thick as mosquitoes. This year's 4th Round OL is a 3rd Rounder last year or next year; take advantage of the disproportionate valuation.

But most of all... I really, really want a guy on our team named Storm Duck.
I looked at the 49ers roster to try and figure out what he worked with there. They were 230(ish) lbs and fast. Is that the direction he will want here? That's my best guess. Questions about player types will not be answered before the draft. So, our speculation is all we have.
 

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I looked at the 49ers roster to try and figure out what he worked with there. They were 230(ish) lbs and fast. Is that the direction he will want here? That's my best guess. Questions about player types will not be answered before the draft. So, our speculation is all we have.
From what Hafley's said about his defensive philosophy, linebacker is going to be a very important piece of the defense. You see a lot of people talking about safeties and CBs, but I'm not sure how many people realize how weak we actually are at linebacker. I think this is a position we need to strengthen in the draft more than free agency, and thankfully this seems to be a good year for us to grab some. We have a lot of picks in the right rounds, too.
 

Dantés

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Our needs are Safety, LB, C, RB, and CB. I think we should restock the OL shelf after getting a Center. The draft is just too deep for OL to not load up on talent. I think Ryan will take a step next year and we may be good a RG. He seemed to be getting better. An offseason of being the guy, may do it for him. Think we will look at a couple late rounders who will also be STers with upside to be a S or LB.

Other than Cooper DeJean, I don’t know that any safety can come in and start and be a stud. We can always draft Nubin or . . . and if they are not working out, grab a veteran on cutdown day. So, I am advocating spending a little space on a proven player at Safety, and I think I see an opportunity at CB.

FA Jeff Okudah 1yr/$6M

Not sure how much he will bring. I don’t think it will be $12M which is what I saw somewhere else. He is an average player but there are a few stat categories where he looks good. Anyway, this one is a bit obvious with his relationship to new DC. Okudah does it on a 1 year deal to boost his value. Packers do it because if he lights it up next year, then Okudah could get a huge contract and the Pack ends up with an extra 3rd compensatory pick. Okudah was one of the more heralded CBs to come out in the last few years – we need to see if it was Hafley’s doing.

I have big hopes for Stokes. But don’t exactly want to risk a season on trusting him.

Xavier McKinney 4 years $50M

Fills our biggest need. We can’t gamble that Cooper DeJean falls to us. I think Nabin in the 2nd is possible, but will we suffer while he gets up to speed? Seems Gute doesn’t take such risks and will seek a FA. McKinney isn’t a great athlete, but still gets the job done. Very reliable.


The DRAFT:

1.25 Graham Barton OC/OG I don’t like our draft area. I don’t know if anyone is really worth the pick. Would love to trade back, but not sure any team would give up much unless a surprise drop. Would sit tight and take DeJean in my ideal situation, but doubt he will be there. Would consider a trade up if it costs a 3rd or less. Barton, though, is a perfect Packer Pick. He is very aggressive and can play all the positions, but probably better suited to the interior. Expect him to play at C, with Rhyan starting at RG, but if suddenly Myer comes on like gangbusters, then Barton can play RG – but I am not thinking that is likely.

2.41 Edgerrin Cooper LB – Had Kris Jenkins in here, but think Cooper is more of a need. Tough to say exactly how Hafley views our LB corps. But I am thinking he is going to want more speed and aggressiveness.

2.58 Mike Sainristil CB This guy isn’t getting much attention, but he probably will be. There are a bunch of CBs that are in this clump that will be going about now. Sainristil should be good in the slot.

3.88 Junior Colson LB We need some LBs. This isn’t a great draft for them, but there are a couple of names that we could land in this area that would work very well for us. Colson is a great athlete and an aggressive player.

3.91 Jaylen Wright (AaronJones2.0) RB Speedster. Decent receiver. Will be a RB that the defenses are always going to have to worry about breaking a big one. Has good vision, balance, and can plant/pivot/and blast in the blink of an eye and be gone. Thus AJ2.0. Our offense really moved well while Jones was healthy. Hopefully the new trainers will somehow keep them hammys unpulled – but we have to have a reliable backup weapon. Since I started typing this – I have now seen him on 2 Packer mocks.

4.127 Javon Foster OT – no needs in the draft for OT. But this is such a great OL draft that we can get a very high ceiling type player on day 3. Great athlete, very coachable, and a chance to sit and learn is a recipe for success.

5.168 Renaldo Green S/CB – great athlete, great balance, COD, and quickness. Big drawback is too much cushion as if he doesn’t trust his speed. Also, will have to work on his tackling.

6.204 Hunter Nourzad – OG/C – Has great tools to work with but was a late bloomer. Undraftably average in 2022 and improved significantly in 2023. His pass blocking will keep him off the field for a year or two. But if he continues to develop, he could be a great find.

6.216 Cody Simon WSLB Very athletic – will need to work on technique. Has the violence and instincts to make an impact. Little light at 235.

7.243 Sage Ryan S Very fast. Needs to bulk up and work on tackling technique. Aggressive – but inconsistent. Some focused coaching may bring him around. Else, should be a ST demon.

7.251 Tyler Grubbs – LB – small but very fast. Is aggressive and hard hitting. Projecting that if he puts on 10 lbs of muscle and doesn’t lose much of his 4.60 speed, he can be put to great use. Another interesting ST addition.

LT Walker, Foster
LG Jenkins, Jones
C Barton, Nourzad
RG Ryan, Nourzad
RT Tom, Nijman

WR Watson, Wicks, Reed, Doubs, Heath, Melton, Dubose
TE Musgrave, Kraft, Simms
QB Love, Clifford
RB Jones, Wright, Wilson

DE Smith, LVN
DL Clark, Wooden
DL Slayton, Wyatt
DE Gary, Brooks

SLB Walker, Cox, Grubbs
ILB Cooper, McDuffie
WLB Colson, Wilson, Simon

CB Alexander, Stokes, Valentine, Akudah, Sainristil
S McKinney, Johnson, Ford, Ryan, Green


To determine if these guys were reasonably available, I ran simulations on PFN. Everything was fine except I had Foster in the 3rd and Wright in the 4th. I could not get it to work that way, so I switched the picks around. Then it worked. My last 3 picks were not listed, so I picked 3 guys with really cool names.


You must be logged in to see this image or video!



Storm Duck – Now its one of my favorites of all time
Nook Bradford – ‘Nook’? Must be nickname
Steele Chambers – something tells me he is a ‘Safe’ pick.

This doesn’t make them bad ideas by any means, but I would say that 2 of the first 3 picks don’t feel very on brand for the Packers.

Barton at 25 , whom I love, would be the first iOL Green Bay has drafted in round one since 1994. If they think he can be anything more than an emergency tackle, that could be different.

Sainristil isn’t a Packer. Way too small. And they haven’t shown much interest in investing in the nickel position. However, they’re more willing to go off brand in round 2. Unlikely, I’d say, but not impossible.

I think McKinney is the ideal FA for them, but I think the Giants are going to put a tag on him.
 

Thirteen Below

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I think McKinney is the ideal FA for them, but I think the Giants are going to put a tag on him.
Do think today's salary cap news makes it any more or less likely he gets tagged? Tag value for a safety last year was something like $14.3M; now it's $17.1. Will that have any real impact on the decision to tag him, or for that matter will it change the scenario in general for any UFAs?
 

Dantés

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Do think today's salary cap news makes it any more or less likely he gets tagged? Tag value for a safety last year was something like $14.3M; now it's $17.1. Will that have any real impact on the decision to tag him, or for that matter will it change the scenario in general for any UFAs?

If anything, it just makes it more likely that teams will keep players they prefer not to lose.
 

Thirteen Below

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Good. Thanks. That's what I was thinking, and I was hoping it was so. Does help us out a bit when it comes to a few of our guys, I think.

You have anyh thoughts on what it might mean for the Bakhtiari situation? Obviously we're not going to spend 2/3 of the extra money just to keep him (at least, I think it's obvious), but does it make any of our possible options for how to handle him any more or less likely than they would otherwise be?

Edit: maybe that question belongs in a different thread...
 
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This doesn’t make them bad ideas by any means, but I would say that 2 of the first 3 picks don’t feel very on brand for the Packers.

Barton at 25 , whom I love, would be the first iOL Green Bay has drafted in round one since 1994. If they think he can be anything more than an emergency tackle, that could be different.

Sainristil isn’t a Packer. Way too small. And they haven’t shown much interest in investing in the nickel position. However, they’re more willing to go off brand in round 2. Unlikely, I’d say, but not impossible.

I think McKinney is the ideal FA for them, but I think the Giants are going to put a tag on him.
Keep in mind that things may have changed with the new DC and a new system. The LBs will likely change to smaller quicker guys as now 3 of them have to cover sideline to sideline instead of 4. Hafley may have a different idea about what he wants in a CB. Sainrist is probably not suited for the Packers because he doesn't play much press. But I wouldn't discredit him yet for his height. I will be watching to see who we bring in pre-draft to get a better idea on what we are looking for.

As far as Barton goes, we normally draft and develop, but we need to improve now. If our run game was even better, it would have been unstoppable. Our limiting factor was the center and I think Myer isn't getting any better. Coaches know better what his issues are, and if correctable.

I agree on McKinney, the salary cap increase just killed this option. On the other hand, DeJean not testing at the combine is great news. He may be available with a short trade up.
 

Dantés

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How about Geno Stone?

I think he could be a fit. He apparently did a lot of work on the back end for Baltimore. However, that was a pretty great defense in front of him and I don't think he's a very good tackler. But all of the options that make it to FA are going to be imperfect.

Maybe they'll explore the trade market-- maybe a guy like Andre Cisco or K'Von Wallace.
 

Dantés

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Keep in mind that things may have changed with the new DC and a new system. The LBs will likely change to smaller quicker guys as now 3 of them have to cover sideline to sideline instead of 4. Hafley may have a different idea about what he wants in a CB. Sainrist is probably not suited for the Packers because he doesn't play much press. But I wouldn't discredit him yet for his height. I will be watching to see who we bring in pre-draft to get a better idea on what we are looking for.

As far as Barton goes, we normally draft and develop, but we need to improve now. If our run game was even better, it would have been unstoppable. Our limiting factor was the center and I think Myer isn't getting any better. Coaches know better what his issues are, and if correctable.

I agree on McKinney, the salary cap increase just killed this option. On the other hand, DeJean not testing at the combine is great news. He may be available with a short trade up.

Yeah, I don't really take issue with the Cooper idea. As far as discrediting Sainristil, I am not saying he can't play. I'm just saying that he isn't a body type that GB is likely to select, given their history, regardless of who the DC is.

I think the NFL is going to be lower on Dejean than what many think. Not that he isn't in the first round conversation, but I think the idea that he's a top 10-16 guy is largely being manufactured by PFF. They tend to be too on DB's coming out of that Iowa defense.
 

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Yeah, I don't really take issue with the Cooper idea. As far as discrediting Sainristil, I am not saying he can't play. I'm just saying that he isn't a body type that GB is likely to select, given their history, regardless of who the DC is.

I think the NFL is going to be lower on Dejean than what many think. Not that he isn't in the first round conversation, but I think the idea that he's a top 10-16 guy is largely being manufactured by PFF. They tend to be too on DB's coming out of that Iowa defense.
I'm starting to think this too. When I saw a number of Draft rankings having him as a top 10 player I was a tad skeptical and am now moreso. He's not that fast and fluid as all that.
 

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As far as discrediting Sainristil, I am not saying he can't play. I'm just saying that he isn't a body type that GB is likely to select, given their history, regardless of who the DC is.
When it comes to Sainristil"s size, Gute has drafted only one DB under 190lbs and that was Shemar Jean Charles. He definitely isn't the prototypical size DB. The one thing Sainristil has going for him, is he made a lot of big plays at Michigan, so you never know, but I would think they would shy away from drafting him. Jaire really wasn't their typical guy either, being only 5'10" he is right at their threshold
 

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When it comes to Gute drafting OL, the Packers have a "sweet spot" for size. Aside for Jake Hanson in weight, Rasheed Walker in height and Weight, and Sean Rhyan in Weight, the Packers typically draft Olineman that are between 304-317. and are 6'4" or 6'5" Jake Hanson was around 300, but he was also true Center. Walker is 6'6" 324, and Rhyan is 321lbs. Since 2018, Gute has drafted 11 OLineman, and these 3 guys are the only outliers, with 2 guys still hitting the height sweet spot.
 

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