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Amish Mock draft v2 update 2/27

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by AmishMafia, Jan 3, 2020.

  1. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Way to early. But bored the other day in hospital. (Waiting for someone - all is good)

    Resign:
    Beluga - having a great year. Would not tie up much money on him - and maybe some team throws stupid money at him - but I think his injury history keeps teams at bay. We get him on a reasonable offer and he wants to stay a Packer. I think we get him back for less than one would think

    Let go
    Graham - huge disappointment. Thought he would be much better. These big guys sometimes have difficulties - its a lot of stress on those knees. Stick a fork in him - he is done.

    Martinez - I give him a more than reasonable offer. I worry some team will be confused by his stats and throw cash at him. I think he is good, but not elite.

    Lewis - we just need more out of a TE



    FA Signings
    Under the Gute regime, there are lots of possibilities that may happen. I expect a few signings just because Gute had so much success at it the first time around, he has to think it's easy.


    Corey Littleton ILB LAR I think Littleton has the benefit of playing on a talented defensive roster, but I think he is a good player in his own right. I think he will be a good impact. ZSmith did not test well as an athlete, but he sure looks like one on the field when playing. Littleton is the same way.

    Nick Kwiatkoski ILB - I think the Bears will really go after resigning him. However, with 70% of their salary cap going to Mack, they lose Kwiatkoski. Another young player who just emerged this season. We did it this past offseason with 2 FA OLBs, why not 2 FA ILBs this season? Not sure how much 2 ILB formations we used this season, but that may be more of a function of not having 2 good ILBs. Anyway, Nick is very active and seems to enjoy collisions. He saw firsthand how good the Packer defense is and knows he has a much better shot at success with the Packers.

    TE Hunter Henry - takes too long to develop a TE. We splurge and grab a young player who is still ascending. Pay him too much but it is a necessity. I think Tonyan and Sternberger will both be good reliable targets. Need another, more reliable guy for now.

    DRAFT

    1.32 Trade back 1.32, 6th, and 3-7ths for 2.08 and 3.08.


    2.08. Jalen Reagor WR - Although I don't think WR is a huge need like most, I have been pushing for the dynamic smaller guy for the last 4 years now. Reagor is a speed demon that will add to the dynamic attack. He has great return skills and that would be his primary role here to start with. As a WR, Jalen isn't entirely known. He had poor QB play. He got open deep frequently, but his stats don't show it. Due to the number of quality WRs available, Reagor is available late here with teams knowing they can get a good one in the 2nd. I like Reagor more than some of the others in the last few years: Parris, Hardman, seems like another 1 or 2. They went in 2nd or 3rd. Reagor is different because I believe he can be a very good WR whereas the others are more of just threats. Forgot about Hollywood. He is a lot like the Ravens pick.

    2.32 Trey Smith OT/G - Flexible guy can probably play wherever we might need him. Drops because of health issue - blood clots on the legs which cost him a bunch of games. He is getting back into shape by the end of the season. I think he will make a full recovery. Sans the injury, he probably goes in the late first.

    3.08 Troy Pride CB - ND Very fast CB. Relies on that too much for the pros. There are about 10 CBs that are at his level that will start dropping off in the mid 2nd. At least one of them should be available here, its Troy because of the gamble. He seems to have some solid fundamental coverage skills, but doesn't always follow them, because he knows he can make up ground quickly. I'm betting that he works on his game and becomes very good. Not a huge need, but you always can use a good CB.

    3.32 Jordan Love QB - Utah State - Strong athletic and accurate. All the tools are there. Needs to sit for 2 years at least and learn about the finer points. Understand the offense better and feel things. Needs to check some boxes - like aptitude before this trigger is pulled. Maybe he just doesn't have the mental capacity. Needs to be thinking one step ahead of the defense. Learning under Rodgers may help him immensely.

    4.32 Jordan Elliott DE - Big athletic guy. Good skill set. Got better every year, and I can easily see him getting better for another few years and becoming impactful, but providing decent depth in the meantime. I keep expecting Monty Adams to take a step and be that guy, but I did not see him take a step this year. I thought he was about to break out based on his performance late last season.

    5.32 Matt Bushman TE BYU - Nothing too exciting. Is good at catching and blocking. Will never be a star, but should be a solid all around reliable player. Not a great year for TEs.

    6. Trade

    6.32 Matt Peart OT/G Connecticut - Good frame to add about 15 lbs of muscle he will need at the next level. Plays with excellent skills but is a guard. Didn't really have the competition to properly gage him. Fear he will do great at the senior bowl and will be taken much higher than this. But he is a good 2 years off in adding strength and skills necessary to play in the NFL.


    7. Trade
    7. Trade
    7. Trade
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2020
  2. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Like this, especially if Love falls that far.

    Would rather sign Schobert than Kwiatowski. Think we need to Target ILB in draft. Really like Reagor. I'd say we do need WR help in a big way.
     
  3. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    I hope we stay far and away from Reagor, at least until Day 3. I just think he's a gadget guy. We need a #2 WR NOW, and Reagor isn't it. We always hear about these guys who are so much faster than everyone, but in the NFL they rarely become stars. Reagor to me has zero polish, whereas Hollywood had some coming from Oklahoma. The NFL is much faster and if he's not a developed route runner he'll just be a smaller and faster MVS.


    I like Chandon Sullivan to stick on this roster but I think CB could be one of those sneaky needs for this team. I have no scouting report on Pride but this CB class is boom-or-bust but he's not a name I've heard often so I'll just leave it at that.

    I'm biased against most recruits who come out of Missouri. But Elliott surely is an upgrade from Adams.

    Why waste a pick on Bushman? Double dip at WR, ILB, or on the DL!
     
  4. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I think it's a poor year for ILB. I would love to get Kenny Murray, but he will be long gone by our first pick. But getting 2 in FA, I think it goes from weakness to strength.

    CB Tramon can't play forever. If we squeeze another season out of him, I will be happy.
     
  5. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    If we win the Super Bowl, Tramon retires. But if we don't and the coaching staff is interested he may stick around. But if he doesn't, I could see our lineup as:

    1. Alexander
    2. King
    3. Sullivan
    4. Hollman
    5. Jackson/Redmond

    Since Hollman got hurt and would only be the 4th CB anyways I think Gute gives him a chance to rebound and shine. It also gives Jackson one last shot to try to stay on this roster. But depending on how much pause Jackson gives Gute he might go CB on Day 3. But I've consistently mocked Safeties who can also play CB as well.
     
  6. KyraReppe5

    KyraReppe5 "We're going to relentlessly chase perfection."

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    Really love signing Littleton. Do not think signing Henry will be possible but if Russ can swing it, obviously he provides an immediate upgrade to the current TE group. Cutting Graham and Taylor seem inevitable at this point. Really love the Peart pick, though I am unsure he will fall to the 6th. Really like Jordan Love, that could be a underrated pick that could pay off big. Not a fan of Reagor though, I would prefer a guy like Aiyuk over him. Overall, big fan of your board though.
     
  7. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Did this awhile ago for precombine, but didnt finish. So traded up and got rid of the picks I didnt do. Anyway:

    Cap is at 22M

    Cut
    Graham (+8M)
    Taylor (+4.5M)
    Linsley (+8.5M)

    Cap $43M

    Resign
    Bulaga (4 years/40 Total/Cap hit first year -8M)
    Crosby (4/12/-3)
    Tyler Ervin (2/4/-2)
    Veldheer (2/4/-2)

    Kumerow/Sullivan/Tonyan/Lazard/Lancaster (-4.5) all brought back

    Draft Picks (3)

    Cap $20.5M

    Extend 2021 FAs now
    Kenny Clark (4/56/-5M already on the books for $8M)
    David Bahktiari (4/70/+3)

    Cap $18.5M

    Restructure
    Aaron Rodgers $30M converted to Bonus - prorated over 4 years remaining - decrease cap hit $7.5M/yr


    Cap Space
    26M


    FAs

    Chris Jones (4yrs/80M/16) One of the big dogs in free agency. He keeps getting better every year, and he hasn't hit his max yet. Will give offenses fits knowing there is a Smith or two back there coming as well.

    Nick Kwiatkoski - ILB (4/24/5) - of course it is a gamble, because he has only played in limited time. But he has looked really good. Fast and aggressive. I am betting he is just getting started and his success is not just because of the players around him.



    That leave $5M cap space.


    Draft
    1.30 (30) Trade 1.30 and 6.30 for 2.10 and 3.10 The top WRs and top 2 ILBs are gone. Gute sees 5 WRs of Tier 2 (Reagor, Jefferson, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman, Schanault, and Higgins) who are value here, but there should be 1 available 11 picks later and represent great value . . Trade back with our buds in Cleveland.

    2.10 (42) WR Aiyuk: I think he will be really successful and he should produce in his first year. He will be a great return guy immediately. Very quick twitch and exciting when he catches the ball. Has good hands. Needs to refine his routes. Only concern is his lack of aggressiveness in going after the ball. Afraid he will get out-muscled by more physical DBs in the NFL. Would keep the playbook easy for him his first year and only start him with a dozen plays or so.

    2.30 (62) OG Solomon Kindley 6'4 335 Georgia. Had a tremendous season in 2018. In 2019 he put on a bit of lumber and was less fluid out there. He will need to get back down to 315 to play in the NFL. Had he played as well last season as in 2018 he goes late first. He is strong and physical at the point of attack. Not as good a mover as Jenkins last season, especially with the extra weight. His technique is very sound. Will be able to start as a rookie. Gives us a very formidable interior OL. I move jenkins to center red his more natural position and where he wants to play.

    3.10 OT Robert Hunt - Tall and athletic. Very good run blocker and serviceable pass blocker. With his physical skills no reason he can't develop that and be reliable pass blocker. Not quite ready for the NFL and will be good to sit on the bench for a year or two before stepping in. Needs to build a bit more lower strength and will be fine.

    3.30 (94) TE Colby Parkinson - Between Colby, Moss, Pinkney, and Trautman, one should be here at this pick and they are about the same. I prefer Moss, but I think he will be gone. So I went with the one who is named after a cheese. Big guy at 6'7" but only 250 lbs. Will have to add some weight to be effective in the NFL and some lower body strength for blocking. Had an okay year, but Stanford's QB got injured. Considering that, he did well with the opportunities that he got. Smart player with good hands. Surprisingly elusive and a good blocker.

    TRADE Packers give up 4.30 and 5.30 to move up for the last good CB in the talent tier

    4.10 CB Reggie Robinson - a projection here. He has all the tools. Not the level of competition at Tulsa to really gage. But the bigger the game, the bigger he played. Although he is 6'1" 205, his short arms (31") are not ideal. He has good speed and is athletic. Great ball skills, but bats the ball down rather than picking it off. Catching can be learned. Don't understand why DBs don't spend an hour per day on the jugs and doing hand strength/stretch exercises.

    4.30 (126) TRADED

    Trade: Packers get 5.15 give up 6.13, 7.10, 7.28, and 7.30 Mostly because I don't have that many sleepers. But with the tremendous amount of WR talent, 1 slips through the cracks and the Gute pounces.

    5.15 WR Quintez Cephus - bit of a homer here. He has sticky and strong hands and is very reliable. I could put in about 20 other names. There should be someone available here that none of us expects. Like when we got St. Brown. I was certain he was going to be a 2nd day pick. There are others I would prefer, but Cephus is reasonable.

    Others I would take ahead of Cephus? KJ Hill, Gandy-Golden, Van Jefferson, Lipscomb, Guidry, Claypool, and Peoples-Jones. Who knows who will be here.

    5.30 (157) TRADED
    6.13 (172) TRADED
    6.30 (189) TRADED
    7.10 (201) TRADED
    7.28 (217) TRADED
    7.30 (219) TRADED

    QB Rodgers, Boyle
    RB Jones, Williams, Ervin
    FB Vitale

    OT Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Veldheer, Hunt
    OG Turner, Kindley, Light
    OC Jenkins
    WR Adams, Lazard, MVS, GMo, Aiyuk, Kumerow, Cephus
    TE Sternberger, Tonyan, Parkinson


    DL Clark, Jones, Lowry, Keke, Adams, Lancaster
    OLB Smith, Smith, Gary, ?
    ILB Kwiatkoski, Burks, Summers
    CB Alexander, King, Williams, Robinson, Sullivan, Jackson, Hollman
    S Amos, Savage, Campbell, Redmond
     
  8. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    Jones just got tagged by the Chiefs....
     
  9. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Obsolete already.
     
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  10. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    That's why I stayed away from the FA meddling. The Draft to me is easier to speculate on because in FA the players can impact it just as much as the teams.
     
  11. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Even considering that this was done before Chris Jones was tagged, I find this a little bit unrealistic for my taste. I don't think GB has the wherewithal this offseason to keep Bulaga AND sign Jones/Kwiatkoski AND extend Clark and Bakh.

    Rodgers also already did convert some of his base salary into bonus money for some cap relief, so I can't imagine he would do it again.

    The idea of trading down from #30 for a WR is an appealing one, however, the idea of getting picks ~40 and ~74 for #30 and a 6th seems pretty optimistic. I'm also not familiar with teams giving up one middle round pick in exchange for four late ones.

    You seem to have draft picks accounting for about 3M in cap space total, but the first four slots alone would have counted for 3.6M last year.

    As for the players themselves, I like Aiyuk fine. From what I know of Kindley, that's about a 2-4 round reach there in the 2nd. Colby Parkinson is definitely not a good blocker.
     
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  12. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Final mock (maybe)

    Been putting together a draft for a couple weeks and was surprised to see many of my picks in the mocks posted here. Changed them up to be different only to see another mock posted with my new guys.

    Luckily, I have a lot of players I like in this draft. I think I'm reasonable, but there are always guys available I didn't expect. Why not a few of my sleepers? I have a few trades in there which seems to be Gutes MO.


    Here we go . . . . (please no wagering)


    TRADE Packers give up their 1.30 and 6.30 for 2.10 and 3.10
    1.30 TRADED

    2.10 Isaiah Wilson OT - This is our biggest need. Wilson is a huge person with surprising agility. Blocks well on the run. This seems to be OL we are looking for with our last 2 acquisitions. Only played 2 years at the position, so his techniques are rather raw. That being said, he is significantly beyond what you can expect. Should he take a reasonably expected step in play, he could be a very good player.

    TRADE! With a couple of WRs coming off in the last few picks, Gute leaps a few teams to get their last WR of the tier. Trade 2.30 and 4.30 for 2.20

    2.20 - WR Chase Claypool - tall and fast. Long arms, has a great catch radius and is exciting after the catch. This is the sort of WR that the Packers seem to be focused on, not my preference. But he should be at least, a very good NFL receiver. Normally, these guys don't make it out of the first, but because of the riches at WR, some good ones have to drop.

    2.30. Traded

    3.10 CB Troy Pride - more speed and athleticism for the DBs. He is a good player but needs to be stronger lower body to be able to gain position on WRs. He will take his lumps the first year or two, but he is tenacious and a student of the game and you can't teach that.

    3.30 WR Tyler Johnson - an all around good receiver and a very natural ball catcher. Not notable in anything, but really good at everything. Has the instincts and mentality of being a force after the catch. I can see where he would be a dangerous tool in the box for the Packer offense. I had Lynn Bowden here, but had to drop him due to his dropping of the ball.

    4.30 Traded.

    5.29 TE Dalton Keene Has all the tools, just wasn't used very much in the Virginia Tech offense. A bit of a projection. I could see him going early in round 4 or making it to our pick in the 6th. I think more highly of him than most, so I am looking at this as a great value here.


    TRADE! 6.29 and 6.30 for 6.01 A guy high on Gutes radar. He had Keene and another guy tied, so doesn't hesitate to pull the trigger on a trade for . . .

    6.01 DE McTalvin Agim - incredible quickness and tenacious at times. Needs to become more consistent and develop some techniques as well as improve his use of hands.

    6.13 CB L'Jarius Sneed Good size and speed. Needs work on technique, but has a bunch of tools to work with.

    6.29 Traded

    6.30 Traded


    7.23 OLB Casey Toohill - High RAS guy whom Gute has taken a stab at the last 2 drrafts. He is 0 for 2 (so far) but I expect the trend to continue till its no longer a trend.

    7.30 RB Jamycal Hasty - short but fast. Well put together. Has great suddenness and speed. Lacks ability to move in traffic. Will have to spread things out for him in the offense. Decent hands and may become an interesting dual threat with him in for shotgun draws or short patterns.
     
  13. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I would be fine if they drafted a RT with their first pick, and I see nothing unrealistic in that trade down scenario, but I would be shocked if it was Wilson. He fits best into a style of blocking scheme that LaFleur runs least, and fits worst into a style of blocking scheme that LaFleur runs most. Athletically, he's not the type of OL prospect they've targeted, more generally.

    If you love the player and that's what you would do, then I think that's fine. I'm not criticizing your affinity for Wilson. I just don't think that's a pick that would actually happen.

    A trade down and then trade up in the 2nd would make some sense, especially involving a WR. I would be a little mystified if it was for Claypool, however. While he's very talented, he would be a 3rd guy in the style of these big slot, pseudo-TE type WR's. How many do we need? And at what point should we think about diversifying the skill sets of the WR corps?

    Tyler Johnson isn't exactly that same style of receiver, but he's still a catch-point winner. I really want to come out of this draft with some separation skills, speed, and YAC ability.

    I like the picks of Pride, Keene, and Hasty.
     
  14. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    2 slots, and an OT that doesn't quite fit.

    Meh.
     
  15. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    I would love if Gute would trade back twice, once from the 1st to early 2nd and then from the 2nd to mid 3rd with possibly another 4th or 5th. But me personally I just don't see it happening.

    For me taking Pride Jr. at the top of the 3rd is a bit too high, I think Damon Arnette or Noah Igbinoghene should still be available. Amik Robertson I like even better than Pride Jr. but at 5'9 I'm assuming he's a non-starter for Gute. I think the 2nd Round is going to be a doozy for CBs, I'm predicting 4-5 go depending on who doesn't go in the 1st Round.

    I would also say the same for Tyler Johnson, as his speed and burst are questionable. I'd prefer Donovan Peoples-Jones or Van Jefferson in the 3rd.

    Keene is kinda off my board. I'd draft him as a TE, but he'd pretty much be a utility offensive player and special teamer. He should be available still in the 7th. For what we've seen of LeFleur's offense, I can't see him being used much since we let go of Vitale so eagerly.
     
  16. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I think noah will go mid 2nd or he would be the pick. Pride has a bunch more upside than Arnette.

    DPJ - we already have a former wolverine with incredible measurables and very little production. Van is a definite option.
     
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  17. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    The difference between DPJ and Gary in production at Michigan is vast.
     
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  18. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    DPJ did do better, I will give you that. But 34 rec 438 yards last season is not much for a guy as talented as he is. I know he had poor QB play, but still.
     
  19. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Somehow I knew you were gonna say something like that lol.
     
  20. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    DPJ could have returned for another season to improve his stock, but Michigan can't find a QB to save its life.

    Michigan QBs 2017-2019

    Wilton Speight - UDFA in 19, Cut by 49ers
    John O'Korn - UDFA in 18, Tryouts with Lions, Giants, and Dolphins
    Shea Patterson - Likely UDFA



    I liken DPJ to a college version of Davante Parker; has the talent needed for a WR to be successful, but at the end of the day, somebody's gotta still throw him the ball.
     
  21. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Maybe.

    BTW, you spelled Adams' name wrong.
     
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  22. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    DPJ's problem is that he wasn't that good. His QB situation didn't help, but man, he just ain't all that.
     
  23. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    LOL I'm assuming you said the Adams name jokingly...but just incase, there is a Davante Parker.
     
  24. Favre>Rodgers259

    Favre>Rodgers259 Cheesehead

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    How so? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
     
  25. KyraReppe5

    KyraReppe5 "We're going to relentlessly chase perfection."

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    Love the trade back and selecting an OT as the packers first pick, but do not think Isiah Wilson is a good fit in GB. I think Josh Jones and Ezra Cleveland are much better fits.

    Love Troy Pride in the 3rd, that is realistic and would be a great addition to the team. Also like Casey Toohill, I think he could easily replace Kyler Frackrell as the 4th rotational OLB pretty early on.

    Neither Tyler Johnson or Chase Claypool I realistically see as fits in Green Bay. Claypool is basically EQ or MVS and Tyler Johnson is essentially a slightly bigger Darrius Shepherd. I find both of those guys to be decent players, but not really the shifty dynamic slot WR the packers NEED.

    Other than that, I really liked the creatively with the trades. And Hasty is someone I have not even considered but a great selection!
     

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