I read you "Captian Check-down" comment with interest. So I did a little number crunching. Smith does not appear to be the "Captain Check-down" as much as people think. Now, there are some small problems with the following numbers. If a pass was less than 10 yards in the air but went for more than 10 YAC it was included in the 10+ numbers. I used Rodgers as a comparison only because they are playing the Packers.
Smith. 38 games 2009-2011
Pass completions under 10 yards. 415 57.6% 10.9 per game
Pass completions over10 yards. 306 42.4% 8.1 per game
Rodgers 46 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 526 52% 11.4 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 485 48% 10.2 per game
Brady 48 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 580 52% 12.1 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 536 48% 11.2 per game
There is one more interesting thing about Smith. Last year, 2011, his pass completions under 10 yards dropped to 54% of his passes. So either he is going deeper more, or his WR's are getting more YAC.
Edit. Added last sentance.
Excellent post. Its sad that a Packer fan shows more insight to our QB than most Niner fan. The thing about Alex is his greatest strength, and it is a great strength, is also his biggest weakness. He is extremely cautious, to a fault at times, but he will not panic/choke and throw the ball up for grabs trying in desperation to thread a needle into a rock. Unlike almost all other QBs in the league, and certainly unlike most who are considered 'elite' in this game, Smith doesn’t force throws and that drives fans crazy. But as a fan, nothing drives me more crazy as forcing the ball and throwing INTs. One of the first thing Harbaugh's teaches his QB's is to value the football. It's a big sticking point with him.
He only had one healthy receiver last year in Crabtree. And Crabs is more of a glorified possession receiver. He doesn't scare a opposing secondary. Pretty much all year last year, most any team had to do was double cover Crabs and VD on any 3rd & long the team faced last year. But instead of trying to be the Greatest American Hero every 3rd down, Alex kept his head, threw the ball away or took the checkdown. Everyone booed. But the team lived to see another series. And Alex has shown that he CAN take chances when he absolutely has to – his many 4th quarter wins, and not just the ones from last year, show that – but overall he stays calm, runs plays and protects the ball.
Last year’s defense was excellent, but they were also helped very much by almost never being forced to defend a short field, almost always facing an offense backed up deep in their own territory needing to drive the whole field, and much of that was because Smith didn’t panic on 3rd down and throw INTs, desperately trying to “make a play”. Excellent special teams/punt coverage was a big part of that too, but that doesn’t work if the QB is throwing INTs.
Smith is not a superstar and he doesn’t throw impressive darts all over the field, but he has clearly shown that he is a calm, collected, intelligent player who can run an offense under pressure and hit open receivers; it’s on the coaching staff to design and call plays that will work and on the receivers to actually get open. If those two things improve, so will the 3rd down stats. Staying calm under the biggest pressure is one of the most important traits a QB can have, and it cannot be taught. It doesn’t always look pretty, and it can lead to lots of punts and grumbling, but like it or not Smith has proven time & again that he has that trait, and it was that ability to keep his head as much any other single thing that happened on the field that lead to a 14 – 4 record last year. (Which of course would certainly have been a 15 – 4, or possibly a 16 – 3 record if Kyle Williams had done even a high schoolers job against the Giants. Smith didn’t flub those punts, and his team was winning the game late in the 4th quarter when K-10 screwed up the first one, and they were holding their own – not panicking/choking – in overtime, until Williams killed them again.