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49ers

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by JBlood, Aug 30, 2012.

  1. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    I read you "Captian Check-down" comment with interest. So I did a little number crunching. Smith does not appear to be the "Captain Check-down" as much as people think. Now, there are some small problems with the following numbers. If a pass was less than 10 yards in the air but went for more than 10 YAC it was included in the 10+ numbers. I used Rodgers as a comparison only because they are playing the Packers.

    Smith. 38 games 2009-2011
    Pass completions under 10 yards. 415 57.6% 10.9 per game
    Pass completions over10 yards. 306 42.4% 8.1 per game

    Rodgers 46 games
    Pass completions under 10 yards. 526 52% 11.4 per game
    Pass completions over 10 yards 485 48% 10.2 per game

    Brady 48 games
    Pass completions under 10 yards. 580 52% 12.1 per game
    Pass completions over 10 yards 536 48% 11.2 per game

    There is one more interesting thing about Smith. Last year, 2011, his pass completions under 10 yards dropped to 54% of his passes. So either he is going deeper more, or his WR's are getting more YAC.

    Edit. Added last sentance.
     
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  2. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Someone's looking for trouble.
    Wow, way to tout your superiority. Could that be because they were behind? Pack no know, Pack confused. Pack intimidated.[/quote]
    We can do that. We can do that with just 40 throws.
    All valid points. Please try to remember we don't use our run game in the conventional manner.
    We'll get stacked up. You've admitted that we practice against better WR than yours on a routine basis.[/quote]
    Wait, we can run block? Or are you saying that you can't but it doesn't matter. Either way your O line was built to Maul.
    I don't think we can run stuff much anyway. Just like you claim to be, we are a red zone D. You know, where space becomes limited? I do however love your endorsement of your QB's decision making. Every fan should believe in his QB
    Good to know your gameplan. I would also add that the Cowboys had a little help back then when winning games. A lot like the Raiders did back in the 80's. I expect you guys to be above such?
     
  3. 49erMike

    49erMike Cheesehead

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    Life time 49er fan here, just wanted to add some friendly chat to the basket. I'm sure you're all going as crazy as I am to get this season started.

    It's going to be one tough game and it could go either way! Should be a great measuring stick for both teams. I'd like to say good luck, but nah.... lol
     
  4. RonnieLott42

    RonnieLott42 Cheesehead

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    Interesting numbers to be sure Raptorman. I found this article that ties into our conversation-
    http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/10/going-deep/
     
  5. 757Niner

    757Niner Cheesehead

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    Excellent post. Its sad that a Packer fan shows more insight to our QB than most Niner fan. The thing about Alex is his greatest strength, and it is a great strength, is also his biggest weakness. He is extremely cautious, to a fault at times, but he will not panic/choke and throw the ball up for grabs trying in desperation to thread a needle into a rock. Unlike almost all other QBs in the league, and certainly unlike most who are considered 'elite' in this game, Smith doesn’t force throws and that drives fans crazy. But as a fan, nothing drives me more crazy as forcing the ball and throwing INTs. One of the first thing Harbaugh's teaches his QB's is to value the football. It's a big sticking point with him.

    He only had one healthy receiver last year in Crabtree. And Crabs is more of a glorified possession receiver. He doesn't scare a opposing secondary. Pretty much all year last year, most any team had to do was double cover Crabs and VD on any 3rd & long the team faced last year. But instead of trying to be the Greatest American Hero every 3rd down, Alex kept his head, threw the ball away or took the checkdown. Everyone booed. But the team lived to see another series. And Alex has shown that he CAN take chances when he absolutely has to – his many 4th quarter wins, and not just the ones from last year, show that – but overall he stays calm, runs plays and protects the ball.

    Last year’s defense was excellent, but they were also helped very much by almost never being forced to defend a short field, almost always facing an offense backed up deep in their own territory needing to drive the whole field, and much of that was because Smith didn’t panic on 3rd down and throw INTs, desperately trying to “make a play”. Excellent special teams/punt coverage was a big part of that too, but that doesn’t work if the QB is throwing INTs.

    Smith is not a superstar and he doesn’t throw impressive darts all over the field, but he has clearly shown that he is a calm, collected, intelligent player who can run an offense under pressure and hit open receivers; it’s on the coaching staff to design and call plays that will work and on the receivers to actually get open. If those two things improve, so will the 3rd down stats. Staying calm under the biggest pressure is one of the most important traits a QB can have, and it cannot be taught. It doesn’t always look pretty, and it can lead to lots of punts and grumbling, but like it or not Smith has proven time & again that he has that trait, and it was that ability to keep his head as much any other single thing that happened on the field that lead to a 14 – 4 record last year. (Which of course would certainly have been a 15 – 4, or possibly a 16 – 3 record if Kyle Williams had done even a high schoolers job against the Giants. Smith didn’t flub those punts, and his team was winning the game late in the 4th quarter when K-10 screwed up the first one, and they were holding their own – not panicking/choking – in overtime, until Williams killed them again.
     
  6. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Sorry to confuse you, but I am a Vikings fan.
     
  7. Vltrophy

    Vltrophy Cheesehead

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    Alex Smith only threw17 TDs last yr. That's sad. They're D played the biggest role in them getting to the NFC Championship last season
     
  8. bobgodd

    bobgodd Cheesehead

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    Well for what it's worth, I won't cheapen any of those records. I also would challenge anyone to say that there is a fair comparison between the two; what kind of athletic competition did he face in the 40's? Football players back then for the most part, weren't supremely athletic and skilled, they were just better than what else was available. None of those players would even sniff a practice squad against today's players - who are all bigger, stronger, and faster.
     
  9. Raptorman

    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    I disagree with your statement about the athletic abilities of players from the past. Not only was Hutson a WR but he also played safety and had over 30 interceptions. Many players on those teams played both offense and defense. Name one player today that even sniffs that idea on a regular basis. Oh yeah, he was also the Packers kicker/punter.
    Hutson was 6-1 183 pounds, Rice 6-2 200 pounds. Rice also had the advantage of the newer rules for WR's not being mugged while going out for a pass. I wonder how well Rice would have done with a DB hanging on him while trying to make his cuts.
     
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  10. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    What are you basing that off of? Just assumptions? Or have you studied film?
     
  11. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Even in Rice's prime he had an equal. Sterling sharpe was just as good. No one was even in Hutsons league.

    Most people have been fed the line that rice is hands down the greatest of all time by tv announcers and espn. And when someone challenges what they held as true for so many years, they reject it immediately without listening to the evidence presented.

    Tony Gonzalez is the greatest TE in nfl history. I fully believe that, but would love to hear an argument otherwise that might change my mind.
     
  12. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Will you be back if Pack win?
     
  13. GreenBlood

    GreenBlood Banned Banned

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    Speaking of that era, who is the only player to lead the NFL in pass yards, passes intercepted and net punt average in the same season? Should be fairly easy for the seasoned NFL fan.
     
  14. 5x49er

    5x49er Cheesehead

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    yes
    yes i will return. Around playoff time.
     
  15. 5x49er

    5x49er Cheesehead

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    SF Offense >GB Defense
    SF Defense = GB Offense
    SF Special teams >GB special team

    First off you must stop Frank and Kendall and combat our Jumbo sets, shifts, and 2 TE sets. I don't see you stopping us from running unless you overload like everyone else and when you try you leave Vernon Davis or Randy Moss in single coverage. You will get owned if you do sooner or later because no single DB will stop Vernon Davis and anything less than an 8 man front won't slow Frank Gore.

    No team runs up the score on our defense unless it is the Saints and that is because they have an offense that is multifaceted. They run and they pass well whereas all GB does well is pass the football. That is what we want defensively. We take away your run to make you 1 dimensional in order to get you off the field with either a turnover or a punt. We bend but don't break and give you 3 points if that, we hit your QB and take away his scramble with our LBs, we strip your ball carriers and take away the pill, we rule field position on special teams and convert every kick. We make you score from 85 yds out then we take the ball, pound the rock and sit your QB by the Gatorade for 35+ mins of the game.

    GB will be at home and pumped for the opener, but we will be hungry for respect. Should be a good game, but just as our QB has been less than elite, the same can be said for GB defense and running game last season. I do however expect Aaron Rodgers to be as always, out to let us know that we should have drafted him and try and stick it to his childhood team of choice that he so desperately wanted to play for but is thankful he didn't yet it must eat away at him in seeing our success last year knowing that if he were here and not Alex we should have won. I expect Alex to also want to put up a good showing in his own way and that being walking out with a win by any means necessary. But I do know that Aaron will be playing with that chip but I am looking for our defense to play with one also.





    Its simple we win.
    Iwont bother to try to predict a score .
    Instead ill predict a letter....W.... 49ers
     
  16. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Wow, seems like you know how to do everything but shut up and be humble. Let the field work speak for itself and let not him who dons his pads boast like him who takes them off.
     
  17. The Drew

    The Drew #packergang

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    The Trolls are here!!! The Trolls are here!!!
     
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  18. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    All that from watching pre season football?

    If your team had a D that has been around like Pitt, or Balitmore, then okay..But your D hasnt been that good for that long..

    Just dont assume your D will be the same as last year..It SHOULD be, but you jkust never know
     
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  19. bobgodd

    bobgodd Cheesehead

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    The reason that he was able to play offense and defense (in my opinion) is because the lack of athletic talent surrounding him. I won't take away anything from the man, he was probably ahead of his time... But to say that he was so good he played safety AND receiver is only part of the tale. Rice's rules might have been better than in the 40's but they're not the same pass-happy offense-first rules that we have to endure in the NFL today.

    Not to say that popularity is the measure of a great player, but I must ask; when the mention of the best WR ever comes about, why is Rice always the conclusion? There's no incentive for people to pick Jerry Rice over anyone else... They don't get extra raffle tickets or anything...
     
  20. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    oh wow:tdown: sorry to hear that. I'll keep you in my prayers.
     
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  21. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    IMO this reveals you know nothing about him: "Probably" ahead of his time? Don Hutson invented the modern WR position. His numbers compare to his contemporaries the way Babe Ruth's home run numbers compare to his contemporaries.
     
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  22. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Yes, but on the plus side he isn't a troll. :D
     
  23. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Rice is the auto pick when it comes to the espn viewers. The people that really know football? The joe horrigans, Peter kings, dr Z's, and such will say its Don Hutson.

    People pick rice bc at that position it's easy to look at the numbers and see such a margin between the two. It's not like that at QB otherwise Favre would be rated #1. It's about championships (Bart Starr gets the shaft bc he won 3 titles before the SB existed). Running back is a little different. The experts say Jim brown bc he held a record for so long and dominated (just like Hutson). People like to say Barry sanders bc of the highlights and very few say Emmitt Smith even though he had a career like Rice's
     
  24. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    First of all I get tired of hearing this one-dimensional thing all the time. To end up where we end up every year offensively and to win as many games as we win how accurate can that be? McCarthy has said over and over that it's not necessarily the YPC but the number of carries that really matters in this offense. In other words he doesnt' LET the game get one dimensional where they put it up 50 or 60 times.

    If they run it 26 times for 92 yards and win by two touchdowns is that considered a "one dimensional" performance?
    I don't think so. If it were truly one dimensional the Packers wouldn't finish near the top in offense would it?

    Look, I would rather play a team like San Francisco then a high powered offense with a decent D. Early like this with verdict still out on the D I would be more worried about a game where we get into a whoever has the ball last type game.

    It's not like Rodgers has never faced a good defense before and won. History shows he, along with the rest of the offense, is better than any D he faces. I mean he carves Pittsburgh up like a pig and they have a pretty good defense don't they? One team he seems to have trouble with is the Bears but that just makes my point further in that even though he struggles against them at times they still put up W's.

    In fact I see this as a Bears type game where Rodgers might not put up lights out numbers and he has to run for a few 1st downs and long drives are hard to come by but we get the W.
     
  25. 5x49er

    5x49er Cheesehead

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    I do apollogize if im coming off as a troll, that is not my intent, I come in peace im not here to stir up any trouble with the locals.
     
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