2024 draft discussion thread

Pokerbrat2000

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Kirk Cousins contract is back loaded too. With 65 mil dead cap space if they let him go after two years...

Cousins counts for 57mil against the cap in each of 2026 and 2027. If he plays...and penix doesn't.

They should've traded penix for a couple days 2 picks and next year's first, to a team who needed their franchise QB. And cut their losses. They had 24 hrs to realize their mistakes and find a way out. And chose to justify the idiotic moves and compare themselves to GB. Lol. Yikes.
I honestly don't know much about Penix, but I kind of view the pick as something similar to what the Packers did in 2020, when they selected Love. They knew that the timeline on Rodgers was coming to an end and didn't want to do what a lot of teams do, rush a 1st round QB into playing right away.

So far that strategy has worked out well for the Packers, twice actually. If NFL teams are smart, they might be watching just how the Packers have had as much success with their last 2 QB's. Don't wait until you absolutely are in NEED of a QB, but plan ahead.
 

Pkrjones

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Aw, man, I'm a fool.

Well, y'all probably know that already, but I mean specifically. In this instance.

I looked at Amish's draft thread, but didn't read it carefully. I didn't notice that you still get points if you you predict the player, but not necessarily the exact round. I know full well that I'm in way over my head on this board, especially when it comes to evaluating coolege talent. Because I just don't have the time to study college football; my wife's disabled and I'm her caretaker. So I really can't spend much time on a consistemt basis watching college gamea, and I figured I was in miles over my head with some of y'all. I mean, there are some real geniues here, who really study their stuff and know what they're looking at. And that ain't me. So I only got one correct player in the correct round (Cooper, same as several others). And would have been way, way wrong on several others.

Well, there was no money at stake, so it's all good. But I think it would have made it more fun, and I can see why y'all enjoy it. I need to loosen up a bit next year, and just go with the flow. Stop being such a perfectionist.

Edit: I mean, it's not like I would have won, but at least i wouldn't have been totally embarassed. Just partially embarassed.
All good 13, no embarrassment necessary. This is a fun game for everyone, regardless of time/effort expended. To me it's fun to try to match guys that fit the RAS score guidelines, character & game experience that Gute looks for. Any score of 5-20 is impressive, but 0's are a decent probability, as well. Keep playong along, it's a good diversion from life.
 

Pkrjones

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I honestly don't know much about Penix, but I kind of view the pick as something similar to what the Packers did in 2020, when they selected Love. They knew that the timeline on Rodgers was coming to an end and didn't want to do what a lot of teams do, rush a 1st round QB into playing right away.

So far that strategy has worked out well for the Packers, twice actually. If NFL teams are smart, they might be watching just how the Packers have had as much success with their last 2 QB's. Don't wait until you absolutely are in NEED of a QB, but plan ahead.
Big diference between Love & Penix, though, is Love was 20 when drafted, and Penix turns 24 on 5/08. Sit Penix for even 2 years & you've got a 26 yr old 1st year starter. Imho Atlanta severely screwed-up this draft... Ryan Pace fingerprints all over this mess.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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You look up versatility in the dictionary, and this guy's picture is sitting there. Played all 3 levels of the OL (C, G, and T) The best ability, is AVAILability in the NFL, and Monk is a Super hero (Iron Man) suiting up and STARTING, not just playing...58 of 59 games over his college career.

Spot on. It is why the Packers OL has been able to consistently play at a decent level for so many years, despite injuries. As a few posters have pointed out, there might have been a few guys that were "rated" ahead, at their position, over the guys Gute chose, but I think Gute is better at looking at the big picture than a lot of other GM's. That is "what is this guy going to provide the team with throughout the season?" We have seen him start to use this logic with the secondary. Instead of selecting one trick ponies, he is going after guys that have more in their tool boxes, which also includes their character and football IQ's.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Big diference between Love & Penix, though, is Love was 20 when drafted, and Penix turns 24 on 5/08. Sit Penix for even 2 years & you've got a 26 yr old 1st year starter. Imho Atlanta severely screwed-up this draft... Ryan Pace fingerprints all over this mess.
I guess time will tell. A soon to be 36 year old Cousins is coming off of a major injury, so I think that factored into it as well. His contract is structured so that Penix could be their starter after 2 years. I think my only issue with doubling down on the QB position like that, is the fact that unlike like the Packers in 2020, the Falcons aren't a piece or 2 away from being in Super Bowls.
 

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I honestly don't know much about Penix, but I kind of view the pick as something similar to what the Packers did in 2020, when they selected Love. They knew that the timeline on Rodgers was coming to an end and didn't want to do what a lot of teams do, rush a 1st round QB into playing right away.

So far that strategy has worked out well for the Packers, twice actually. If NFL teams are smart, they might be watching just how the Packers have had as much success with their last 2 QB's. Don't wait until you absolutely are in NEED of a QB, but plan ahead.
The problem is if cousins plays out his contract, penix will be 28 when he starts his first game.
Love was 20 or 21 I believe...

Also, Cousins isn't Rodgers ... Atlanta should've drafted a couple mid-late round 20-21 year old QBs to develope if they gave Cousins that deal.

65 mil dead cap in 2026 and 2027 if penix wins the job and starts at age 26....

Also, both Rodgers and love were a new GM first pick. A franchise QB that slipped out of the top of the first round.

Atlanta spent #8 overall when there was a couple desperate teams who needed a QB behind them. That pick would've netted huge returns in a trade I'm sure.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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65 mil dead cap in 2026 and 2027 if penix wins the job and starts at age 26....
Not sure where you got that info, but it is incorrect. If they cut Cousins after 2 years, it's a $35M cap hit and they could spread it out over 2 years.

Again, I didn't really study Penix, since I didn't consider him being a player that the Packers would even look at. So I am basing this on the Falcons viewing him as a QB with a big future upside, like the Packers viewed Jordan Love. For me it isn't WHEN you get a star QB, it is getting one that is the most difficult part of the process IMO. So if you have an older QB and the chance comes along in the draft, you pounce on it.

Again, I know very little about Penix, so if you want to debate whether he could be a great or bad QB, I'm not armed to have that discussion.
 

sschind

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I guess time will tell. A soon to be 36 year old Cousins is coming off of a major injury, so I think that factored into it as well. His contract is structured so that Penix could be their starter after 2 years. I think my only issue with doubling down on the QB position like that, is the fact that unlike like the Packers in 2020, the Falcons aren't a piece or 2 away from being in Super Bowls.
No they aren't now but in two years they could be and its better to have your QB in place and not have him be one of the 1 or 2 pieces you need. From most things I've read about the only real knock on Penix is his age. With 2 years of polishing if he becomes the starter at 26 and plays at a high level for 10 years or even more its not a bad deal.

Cousins may make them a playoff team partly by virtue of their division, and a different pick or even 2 this year would have helped that but they won't be a SB contender. Some people argue to build your team and then cap it with a franchise QB many of these bad teams picking QBs are doing it the other way around. The problem with the latter is your QB may take a beating in the first couple of years hurting his development. The problem with the former is you got your team and now you've got a rookie QB who may take a few years to develop. The way the Falcons (and the Packers despite the differences) did it was to get their QB and develop him WHILE building their team.

Dont get me wrong, its still a questionable choice but all in all I don't think its as bad as some are making it out to be.

Edit:. You replied to slacker while I was writing this and I noticed the "its not when you get your star QB". And I do agree if you can get one, but I do think its better to get a guy sooner rather than later if you really think he is the guy.
 
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GreenBaySlacker

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Not sure where you got that info, but it is incorrect. If they cut Cousins after 2 years, it's a $35M cap hit and they could spread it out over 2 years.

Again, I didn't really study Penix, since I didn't consider him being a player that the Packers would even look at. So I am basing this on the Falcons viewing him as a QB with a big future upside, like the Packers viewed Jordan Love. For me it isn't WHEN you get a star QB, it is getting one that is the most difficult part of the process IMO. So if you have an older QB and the chance comes along in the draft, you pounce on it.

Again, I know very little about Penix, so if you want to debate whether he could be a great or bad QB, I'm not armed to have that discussion.
You're right I misread the chart.
His first two years are guaranteed. 25 mil in 2024, and 40mil in 2025.
After that his salary blows up to 57 mil/yr .. with 25 mil dead in 2026 and 12.5mil dead in 2027.


So it wouldn't be the end of the world in 2026 and 2027 wouldn't be bad at all. He would have to be playing great for them to not cut him for the 45 mil cap savings now.

The 65mil dead cap I was referencing is if he gets cut before June 1st 2025. Before the 2nd year of his contract, not after the season like I assumed. (He has $40mil guaranteed in year two, after June 1)

So yea, I definitely stand corrected. And now the penix pick make more sense.
Only glaring down side to this scenario is penix age. He is losing 2 or 3 years that a conventional top 1st round pick would have.
 
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Pkrjones

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Besides being "old" for a rookie QB (24 in 2 weeks) Penix has a sizable injury history already. 2 ACL's, separated shoulder (AC joint) & a collarbone. None of those are deal breakers, but together show that he's already been banged around a lot. Imho Atlanta could've done much better with a reclamation project like Trubisky, Fields, or Wilson.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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So yea, I definitely stand corrected. And now the penix pick make more sense.
Only glaring down side to this scenario is penix age. He is losing 2 or 3 years that a conventional top 1st round pick would have.
I guess I would rather have a great QB at the age of 26, than blow through high draft picks looking for 1, kind of like the Bears, Panthers and now the Pats are doing. Also, age right now seems to be bumped ahead a year or 2 on many guys, due to the Covid exemption.

Again, I think the Falcons are reading the Packer playbook here, which was one of the reasons that there were a few of us that were behind the Love pick. Rodgers was nearing the end, Love wasn't ready and needed seasoning, not a bad position to be in for a young QB, learning behind a really good QB. I actually think Cousins is much better than people give him credit for, Penix has to feel pretty good about where he ended up.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Besides being "old" for a rookie QB (24 in 2 weeks) he's got a sizable injury history already. 2 ACL's, separated shoulder (AC joint) & broken collarbone. None of those are deal breakers, but together show that he's already been banged around a lot. Imho Atlanta could've done much better with a reclamation project like Trubisky, Fields, or Wilson.
I actually think their mistake(s) started with Cousins. They are over paying and over committing to a guy that is near the end of his career and more importantly, coming off a major injury. Now that wouldn't have been so bad if they had a really good team and just an average QB could make them a winner. So while some are looking at the Penix pick as a mistake, I think it was done to try and correct the mistake they made in signing Cousins. Might have been doubling down on stupidity or a move to make-up for it in the future.
 

DoURant

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One thing that keeps being mentioned, is the age of Penix. QB is the one position that has a longer life span than any other position, other than maybe Kicker. Cousins is 36, it's mentioned that the Falcons need to get at least 2 years out of him, maybe 3. That puts Penix at 26 or 27 yrs old when taking over. IF he can have a career like Cousins, he could potentially start and give the Falcons 10-12 years in this league. (Not a bad investment) If not, he could still carve out 8 to 10 years split between starter and a viable backup. It will be interesting to follow how his career works out.
 
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My major concerns going into the season are the outside corner spot opposite Jaire, right guard, and kicker. While I do really like what we have done so far this offseason, I do wish more had been done to address those spots on the roster.
I think this speaks to our staff believes that Stokes will make (or already has) a full recovery. I know Kalen King seems like an afterthought as a 7th Rounder and that’s partly true. I think he’s young and has a high football acumen. He does have some ?? But that pushed him from that Day2 area into the 5th. But mark my words at pick #255 he’s 100% worth taking a chance. After some earlier minimal research I was mocking King in that 5th round area regularly and without hesitation. If he answers a few ? ? He’s a Day 2 talent and that’s not an exaggeration.

On a sidenote, I think there’s 50/50 that we go after 1 more starting caliber player either in FA (or by trade). Now that we know exactly what we’ve got, expect a surprise FA signing. Adding OL at #25,163, 202 made us better. Monk has lots of exierience at RG and is a very dense player. He was the #1 OL at Combine in short burst. He’s incredibly strong (31 Reps) and he’s got an atypical 58 starts under his belt. He’s also known as a very passionate player by his teammates and he has football pedigree similar to Runyon which is an intangible +
 
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DoURant

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You can ignore the Draft Grades. I just like seeing the list of picks

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Who came up with those grades? They're borderline idiotic.

I mean, the grades for Morgan through Lloyd are ok, maybe even reasonable. Hopper and Williams as a C- and D I can also understand why if you consider them reaches (which they might very well be), but whoever is grading these seems not to be taking into account what role they would play. But C for Oladopo and Monk?? Those were for me some of the best picks IMO. And a C for King? I mean, we're talking about a 7th rounder and is obviously a high risk high reward prospect.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Who came up with those grades? They're borderline idiotic.
While I get people wanting to sound smart and assign "Grades" to teams draft selections, right after the draft, this would be like handing grades out in college, based on what classes and teachers you signed up for.

What people should be doing after every draft is grading the teams draft 4 years ago. In this case, that would be the Packer 2020 draft. Had it not been for Love's 2023 season, that draft would go down as a D+ for Gute. If Love stays on trajectory, it might turn into an A, leaning towards A+ draft.
 

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Which is why I said to ignore the grade. Lol. The 33rd Team is a bunch of former scouts, GM's, etc.
I hear ya. Still I'll indulge for a moment. I'd rate Bullard better than a B, more like B+. Nick Saban thinks Marshawn Lloyd is one of the steals of the draft. I'll trust him and give that pick an A-, the minus just because he prob won't be a starter out of the gates. Monk I'd give a solid B and Olapado is a A pick for me. Kalen King is hard to grade b/c which King will we see, the 2022 or 2023 King? If it's 2023, then hey, sayonara, no big loss. If it's even approaching 2022, then *wow*. The big "if" for me is Jordan Morgan. If he comes in and is good enough to start at LT that's a huge gain and would make that a A-range pick.
 

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The 33rd team is a great place to get prospects and evaluations during the draft process. Obviously their post draft grades aren't that great. I agree with Poker, I have no use for a grade on a Draft, until minimum 2 seasons in and preferably after 3 or 4
 

Pokerbrat2000

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If only being healthy in May was the same as being healthy in November.
Agree and much like Bahk, King and some other former Packer players, you can't/shouldn't really rely on injury plagued players to be there for a whole season. When you do, you eat up cap and a roster spot. Nobody wants to move on too early from a player, but when his playing time dips below his time injured, its time to start considering moving on. Sadly, that time is creeping closer for Watson.
 
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I think this speaks to our staff believes that Stokes will make (or already has) a full recovery. I know Kalen King seems like an afterthought as a 7th Rounder and that’s partly true. I think he’s young and has a high football acumen. He does have some ?? But that pushed him from that Day2 area into the 5th. But mark my words at pick #255 he’s 100% worth taking a chance. After some earlier minimal research I was mocking King in that 5th round area regularly and without hesitation. If he answers a few ? ? He’s a Day 2 talent and that’s not an exaggeration.

On a sidenote, I think there’s 50/50 that we go after 1 more starting caliber player either in FA (or by trade). Now that we know exactly what we’ve got, expect a surprise FA signing. Adding OL at #25,163, 202 made us better. Monk has lots of exierience at RG and is a very dense player. He was the #1 OL at Combine in short burst. He’s incredibly strong (31 Reps) and he’s got an atypical 58 starts under his belt. He’s also known as a very passionate player by his teammates and he has football pedigree similar to Runyon which is an intangible +
I do agree Kalen King could be a steal. I hope Stokes is healthy and plays to his potential. I do agree he could be a great corner if healthy and playing at his best. He has obviously played good at times. Regardless, I do think the competition should help the unit as a whole.

I wonder if Monk will be a guard or a center? or both? I was thinking he could be a center. We do need competition at center. Of course, I have also heard the speculation that Zach Tom could play center.
 

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