2023 Tyni's Prospect Thread

[Deleted member 6794]

As I think many of us would be overall. However, correct me if I'm wrong we restructure his 2024 hit is just going to be ludacris and we are right back where we are no?

Jones is set to hit our cap with like $20M for round figures, ignorantly high for a RB this day and age...likewise a restructure only seems to have about the ability to save $4M of that....$16M is still crazy to spend on a RB especially if we're in a reset/rebuild mentality for a year.

The Packers could convert Jones base salary in 2023 and '24 as well as his roster bonus due in March into a signing bonus of $24 million and sign him to an extension through the 2026 season. That would result in his cap hit dropping to approximately $12 million for each of the next two seasons. There would be a significant of dead money being left counting against the team's cap for 2025 at $13.5 million though.

If the Packers decide to pay Jones his roster bonus of $7 million in March and then trade him that move would result in a total of $16.5 million of dead money counting against their cap with either all of it in 2023 or spread out over the next two years. That's not gonna happen.

I just don't see how the QB doesn't change the mindset of the future and how we tackle 2023 and into 2024 for that matter. If Rodgers is here, it's because this organization is going to "run it back" for like the fourth time and no doubt resign at minimum I'd suspect a couple of the four/five guys Rodgers has specifically brought up in discussions of future; Lazard, Tonyan, Lewis, Crosby, Cobb.

I have no issue, despite disagreement, with that tactic if that is the decision you make at QB. That said, if you roll to the future, a massive cap reset is needed and that cannot truly be accomplished without some removal of big contracts off the books and if able replace with rookie deals. I'm not saying getting rid of Jones makes this team better from a weapons, W/L column or the running back room specifically...however the logic of removing him whether by cut, pay and trade or trade (doubtful at his cost presently before that bonus is paid) is something I understand as needed sadly if that is the direction we start rolling - even if it means saying goodbye to probably one of my favorite GB Packers presently playing for us.

I definitely agree the Packers will take a different approach depending on if Rodgers or Love is their quarterback in 2023. But they need to surround Love with some talent if he ends up being the starter as well.

I only can speak for me, but I see logic and think many may feel same way in the organization. If you go to Love, I personally feel only those ignorant to reality would think we have the same shot at success at least initially in his "growing pains" year of 2023. Now don't take that wrong though - I don't think Green Bay ends up much worse than they did in 2022 had Love started than we did with Rodgers...but I think best case you get lucky, win some close ones and Love in year one has us in a similar 2023 situation maybe fighting for a bottom wildcard spot...but either way 2023 is the "figure out" year and is all about IMO setting up for 2024.

I highly doubt the Packers will end up fighting for a playoff spot if they end up starting Love in 2023 while trying to fix the cap situation this offseason. In that vase they will rather compete for the #1 overall draft pick in 2024.

 

[tynimiller]

As I said that is the absolute best case I think with Love leading us for 2023. A very bad season similar to the first half of 2022 is likely of course.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In that vase they will rather compete for the #1 overall draft pick in 2024.

I'll pretend I didn't read this.

 

[tynimiller]

DAY 3 DARKHORSE ALERT

So we all know TE is in need of help. I'm more and more coming on board with the logic behind not drafting Mayer at #15 and taking either Washington, Kincaid, Musgrave or Kraft in the second (yes that is my order personally for those four)...however, I'd love to see us double dip with a late round flyer type and I have one for you guys to know the name of.

Kemari Averett TE Bethune-Cookman (2 yrs) (2 yrs at Louisville) 6'6' 250lbs

So this is a story about a guy that in 2017 as a freshman caught his first collegiate TD from Lamar freaking Jackson...whom he stays in contact with even now. He was a highly touted prospect out of high school and was their QB. Then during the Junior year a switch started brewing because Caylin Newton (Cam's younger brother) was in town now and his switch to tight end after learning to read defenses made him an absolute wrecking ball of production at 6'5' no one could check him at the line and if he was matched up with cornerbacks he simply took advantage of it. He was a fridge top 10 TE recruit in the nation and Auburn/Illinois to Louisville recruited him (11 scholarship offers).

Set backs in the recruiting process due to personal self made issues he has opened up about labeled him as a possible red flag...but the story of that 17 year old after spending nine days in jail was the wake up call that everyone that witnessed him after that could see. He recently spoke in a freshman interview how his crowd selection had to change and did.

On signing day he shared this thought:

“It took a lot for me not to cry on signing day,” Averett tweeted after signing his letter of intent with U of L. “I once was labeled a menace to society. I once was labeled a threat to the community. My whole entire career was almost wash (sic) down the drain.” (story can be found further detailing it all here: https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...lls-kemari-averett-now-rising-star/549755001/)

His time at Louisville though everyone shows signs of character concerns as he would face other charges - all of which were then dropped for various reasons. He was left without a college home to play at during all the legal issues and such before Bethune Cookman picked him up.

He put in a TON of work and then Covid hit....so here was a guy that played in the 2017 and 2018 season at Louisville....and now in 2021 was for the first time looking like he would get to play. I actually got a text from a buddy that attended the game they played against Mississippi Valley State U that year to look this guy up; in his words there was one MAN on that field and a bunch of college boys. Yes, Bethune-Cookman isn't playing SEC level competition, but this was a SEC level prospect out of high school had it not been for his issues.

He produced the last two years 1,326 yards and 17 TDs...in 2021 his YPC was NUTS at 17.2 and 2022 was awesome for a TE as well at 11.3.

When you look at the landscape of prospects Averett is the definition of a coin flip type young man. Has he continually through bad choices caught bad luck or are these flags a sign that he is a roller coaster of character issues which bubble back up after times of "learning". Personally watching some of his film and seeing first hand how he clearly in many of his collegiate games was THE BEST player on the field - I truthfully feel he is a character flyer worth taking especially if you come away from interviews with him getting that good gut sense vibe that this kid is finally a man whose past is bad but has helped make him better for it.

Skills wise this man is a jump ball TE Moss like target, can cut the seam decently and I see better acceleration than long speed....he can find and sit in soft spots against zone defense like you want but what I love is he plays with an aggression in blocking that is just awesome. He doesn't want to just block a guy, he is hoping to deliver a message so strong the guy hesitates the next play.

Having a son myself I am hoping now with Averett having a son maturity is starting to sit in...if that is the case this is one of those GEMS in the draft.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

DAY 3 DARKHORSE ALERT

So we all know TE is in need of help. I'm more and more coming on board with the logic behind not drafting Mayer at #15 and taking either Washington, Kincaid, Musgrave or Kraft in the second (yes that is my order personally for those four)...however, I'd love to see us double dip with a late round flyer type and I have one for you guys to know the name of.

Kemari Averett TE Bethune-Cookman (2 yrs) (2 yrs at Louisville) 6'6' 250lbs

So this is a story about a guy that in 2017 as a freshman caught his first collegiate TD from Lamar freaking Jackson...whom he stays in contact with even now. He was a highly touted prospect out of high school and was their QB. Then during the Junior year a switch started brewing because Caylin Newton (Cam's younger brother) was in town now and his switch to tight end after learning to read defenses made him an absolute wrecking ball of production at 6'5' no one could check him at the line and if he was matched up with cornerbacks he simply took advantage of it. He was a fridge top 10 TE recruit in the nation and Auburn/Illinois to Louisville recruited him (11 scholarship offers).

Set backs in the recruiting process due to personal self made issues he has opened up about labeled him as a possible red flag...but the story of that 17 year old after spending nine days in jail was the wake up call that everyone that witnessed him after that could see. He recently spoke in a freshman interview how his crowd selection had to change and did.

On signing day he shared this thought:

“It took a lot for me not to cry on signing day,” Averett tweeted after signing his letter of intent with U of L. “I once was labeled a menace to society. I once was labeled a threat to the community. My whole entire career was almost wash (sic) down the drain.” (story can be found further detailing it all here: https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...lls-kemari-averett-now-rising-star/549755001/)

His time at Louisville though everyone shows signs of character concerns as he would face other charges - all of which were then dropped for various reasons. He was left without a college home to play at during all the legal issues and such before Bethune Cookman picked him up.

He put in a TON of work and then Covid hit....so here was a guy that played in the 2017 and 2018 season at Louisville....and now in 2021 was for the first time looking like he would get to play. I actually got a text from a buddy that attended the game they played against Mississippi Valley State U that year to look this guy up; in his words there was one MAN on that field and a bunch of college boys. Yes, Bethune-Cookman isn't playing SEC level competition, but this was a SEC level prospect out of high school had it not been for his issues.

He produced the last two years 1,326 yards and 17 TDs...in 2021 his YPC was NUTS at 17.2 and 2022 was awesome for a TE as well at 11.3.

When you look at the landscape of prospects Averett is the definition of a coin flip type young man. Has he continually through bad choices caught bad luck or are these flags a sign that he is a roller coaster of character issues which bubble back up after times of "learning". Personally watching some of his film and seeing first hand how he clearly in many of his collegiate games was THE BEST player on the field - I truthfully feel he is a character flyer worth taking especially if you come away from interviews with him getting that good gut sense vibe that this kid is finally a man whose past is bad but has helped make him better for it.

Skills wise this man is a jump ball TE Moss like target, can cut the seam decently and I see better acceleration than long speed....he can find and sit in soft spots against zone defense like you want but what I love is he plays with an aggression in blocking that is just awesome. He doesn't want to just block a guy, he is hoping to deliver a message so strong the guy hesitates the next play.

Having a son myself I am hoping now with Averett having a son maturity is starting to sit in...if that is the case this is one of those GEMS in the draft.

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Yeah, but can he block?

Interesting and fun guy to watch. Definitely has something you can't teach, size and big hands.

Might be worth a day 3 flyer. Guys like this, would be why a high first round pick can be so valuable. The amount of additional picks you can get, just to spray around with on day 3, is appealing. While I would rather pick 15th than 30th, 15th isn't a pick that allows you to trade back and get a whole bunch of picks like Pick 3-5 would.

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[tynimiller]

Yeah, but can he block?

Interesting and fun guy to watch. Definitely has something you can't teach, size and big hands.

Might be worth a day 3 flyer. Guys like this, would be why a high first round pick can be so valuable. The amount of additional picks you can get, just to spray around with on day 3, is appealing. While I would rather pick 15th than 30th, 15th isn't a pick that allows you to trade back and get a whole bunch of picks like Pick 3-5 would.

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You didn't read everything , dude plays with a nasty aggressive edge and he LOVES delivering blocks. He is NOT a guy I want to leave the draft with as the ONLY TE addition when we need it so much...but he is the epitome of dice rolls I'm doing in Day 3 if I'm not grabbing a solid high floor but low ceiling type OL or LB (two positions I feel strong additions of depth can be had).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You didn't read everything , dude plays with a nasty aggressive edge and he LOVES delivering blocks.

I did read it and I was being sarcastic, should have put a with it.

 

[tynimiller]

I did read it and I was being sarcastic, should have put a with it.

Dangit my bad....

Also real quick as most hate the position but keep an eye on Hunter Luepke out of South Dakota State. Listed as a "fullback" he is truly that H Back style TE/FB hybrid guy at the next level.

OOBER productive at South Dakota State:

2020 - 495 all purpose yards with 7 TDs
2021 - 708 all purpose yards with 11 TDs
2022 - 815 all purpose yards with 13 TDs

He's a 6'1' 240lb guy that exhibits excellent knowledge between the ears for the game, locating blocks on the move and if asked the hands to catch and the legs to run with power. I could easily see Gute like to restock the future potentially after Deguara or push him to elevate his play or out of town with a Luepke type pick. He is a 5th or so round level guy IMO worth noting.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Appears that the Packers should get 3 compensatory picks in the 2023 draft.

5th (#170) for MVS
7th: Chandon Sullivan
7th: Oren Burks

 

[tynimiller]

Appears that the Packers should get 3 compensatory picks in the 2023 draft.

5th (#170) for MVS
7th: Chandon Sullivan
7th: Oren Burks

I just posted an update on this. Some experts at estimating that says Lucas Patrick could get a 6th. Not sure who you looked at that didn't include Lucas Patrick....although Reed signing could be why he's dropped.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I just posted an update on this. Some experts at estimating that says Lucas Patrick could get a 6th. Not sure who you looked at that didn't include Lucas Patrick....although Reed signing could be why he's dropped.

Will have to find the article, is was from today I think. Would make sense that Reed cancelled out Patrick, since the Chiefs are getting a 6th for Reed.

If you also look on Overthecap, they updated things:

Projecting The 2023 Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

Projecting The 2023 Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Found the article:

Packers projected to receive 3 compensatory picks in 2023 NFL Draft

www.msn.com

 

[tynimiller]

Suspect most have Lucas cancelled by Jarran then makes sense.

 

[Todd Princl]

Dangit my bad....

Also real quick as most hate the position but keep an eye on Hunter Luepke out of South Dakota State. Listed as a "fullback" he is truly that H Back style TE/FB hybrid guy at the next level.

OOBER productive at South Dakota State:

2020 - 495 all purpose yards with 7 TDs
2021 - 708 all purpose yards with 11 TDs
2022 - 815 all purpose yards with 13 TDs

He's a 6'1' 240lb guy that exhibits excellent knowledge between the ears for the game, locating blocks on the move and if asked the hands to catch and the legs to run with power. I could easily see Gute like to restock the future potentially after Deguara or push him to elevate his play or out of town with a Luepke type pick. He is a 5th or so round level guy IMO worth noting.

I wonder how he would be on special teams?

 

[OldSchool101]

Not to mention...if Rodgers is back and Cobb with him...doubt we spend HIGH HIGH draft capital to tell Rodgers' buddy he isn't getting snaps at slot.

Do you think Doubs could play slot?

Let’s just say we move around and get a Receiver with some size, like Quentin, Smith-Njiba or Rice.

 

[tynimiller]

Do you think Doubs could play slot?

Let’s just say we move around and get a Receiver with some size, like Quentin, Smith-Njiba or Rice.

The latter two are very much experienced in slot, Doubs just doesn’t have the amount of time there but I believe he did operate out of slot a good amount. We’d have three guys capable.

 

[OldSchool101]

Good guesses and with trades, FA's, injuries and of course, the combine....between now and the draft, there will be guys moving up and down. If my memory is correct, I think after the 2018 season the Packers had the 12th pick in the 2019 draft. There was a lot of talk about TJ Hochenson being there for the Packers and was 12 too early to take him? Well, turned out that the Lions took him with the 8th pick. 15 is a spot where you probably won't expect to see any predicted top 5 fall to, but potentially a top 10.

While I like the idea of drafting Quentin, I like the idea of having Mayer at TE tres beacoup.
It serves several purposes. He’s an excellent blocker for the Run game and pass protect, but he’s really the dual threat receiving TE that many top teams have (that we don’t).
He would also push the need at WR down 1-2 slots. I’d even consider a Round 4 WR (or moving up there) if we had Mayer.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'll pretend I didn't read this.

I didn't suggest the Packers should compete for the #1 seed but if they struggle to surround Love with some talent that's where they will be headed in 2023.

 

[tynimiller]

So I hate to be "THAT" guy that many are going to hate but there are a few defensive prospects that I swear even if say we have picks 13 and 15....I struggle very much with passing over these prospects. Honestly, while I have a lot of offensive weapons I like, I don't believe outside of Paris Johnston that I have a higher level prospect I expect to be there possibly for us on the offensive side of things I easily could pick over the following:

Bryan Bresee - iDL
Brian Branch - S
Lukas Van Ness - Edge

Now don't get me wrong there are some DYNAMITE Cornerbacks, but it is easier for me to overlook this because of our teams' current situation at CB. There are also some guys I have personally graded right around our #15 spot, but I can understand maybe calling Mayer's name over or JSN or Quentin's name even (although I'm not a fan of him there personally).

But let me tell you those three are guys that check so so many boxes from both a positional value, roster value and prospect ceiling/RAS attributes.

Honestly, in a hypothetical world where Jets give us #13 in a Rodgers trade....I'd fully support us coming out of the first round with zero offensive guys and two of these three. I personally just feel they are surefire Top 10 caliber guys with massive upside and could contribute if not start right away for us (LVN due to Gary being out of course).

 

[tynimiller]

@Pokerbrat2000 I know the above probably didn’t make you happy lol…but trust me run a Jets trade scenario and we get this as our first and second and third rounders….BE AMAZING. (Kraft in this mock was only one of my top 5 TEs left at second round)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I personally just feel they are surefire Top 10 caliber guys with massive upside and could contribute if not start right away for us (LVN due to Gary being out of course).

I honestly think there's a decent chance Gary will be able to play in week 1 as long as there aren't any complications in his rehab. It will be more than 10 months since he suffered the injury.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

@Pokerbrat2000 I know the above probably didn’t make you happy lol…but trust me run a Jets trade scenario and we get this as our first and second and third rounders….BE AMAZING. (Kraft in this mock was only one of my top 5 TEs left at second round)

I was saying it when the Packers had a shot at possibly getting the 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft, trade back and you still get some quality players.

If the Jets did become the trade partner for Rodgers, giving them the #13 and #15 picks. I could see a few scenarios and it all depends on the board. If 2 guys are still there that they had as top 12 guys, might fire both shots and grab them both. Now if there are several guys that they love in the 13-25 pick range, I would rather see them trade back one or even both, of those picks and pick up a lot more draft capital.

Whatever ends up happening, Gute needs to trade out of the 3rd round, it has been his worst round by a long shot.

 

[tynimiller]

I was saying it when the Packers had a shot at possibly getting the 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft, trade back and you still get some quality players.

If the Jets did become the trade partner for Rodgers, giving them the #13 and #15 picks. I could see a few scenarios and it all depends on the board. If 2 guys are still there that they had as top 12 guys, might fire both shots and grab them both. Now if there are several guys that they love in the 13-25 pick range, I would rather see them trade back one or even both, of those picks and pick up a lot more draft capital.

Whatever ends up happening, Gute needs to trade out of the 3rd round, it has been his worst round by a long shot.

Agree whole heartedly. In a Love build I want a MASSIVE surge of young talent. MASSIVE.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Agree whole heartedly. In a Love build I want a MASSIVE surge of young talent. MASSIVE.

If you haven't, do a few mocks with the Packers picking in the 3rd spot, currently occupied by the Cardinals. Trade back at least once with that pick and maybe twice. The amount of capital is incredible. I know, just draft simulators, but if a QB someone covets is there at #3, they might pay a bundle to trade up to get him. Of course, I was doing this with the thought "had the Packers not won those 4 games".

In a realistic scenario, I would be fine with the Colts giving up their first round (#4) and maybe a 2nd {#35) if we were lucky, in a trade for Rodgers. That 4th pick would allow the Packers to either get a top 5 guy and still have their other picks. Or trade back and pick up a lot of "darts" to throw.

 

[tynimiller]

If you haven't, do a few mocks with the Packers picking in the 3rd spot, currently occupied by the Cardinals. Trade back at least once with that pick and maybe twice. The amount of capital is incredible. I know, just draft simulators, but if a QB someone covets is there at #3, they might pay a bundle to trade up to get him. Of course, I was doing this with the thought "had the Packers not won those 4 games".

In a realistic scenario, I would be fine with the Colts giving up their first round (#4) and maybe a 2nd {#35) if we were lucky, in a trade for Rodgers. That 4th pick would allow the Packers to either get a top 5 guy and still have their other picks. Or trade back and pick up a lot of "darts" to throw.

So that is the issue right now if say we get #13 or even just our #15....typically speaking the return plummets after the top 10 otherwise....now I could see someone GREEN LIGHT CIRCLING Bijan or one of the CBs or even if an EDGE drops.

IF QBs shove 4 picks into the first 6...we could see some real gems fall out of the top 6 that could depending on team needs make some real trade desirables fall to us.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So that is the issue right now if say we get #13 or even just our #15....typically speaking the return plummets after the top 10 otherwise....now I could see someone GREEN LIGHT CIRCLING Bijan or one of the CBs or even if an EDGE drops.

IF QBs shove 4 picks into the first 6...we could see some real gems fall out of the top 6 that could depending on team needs make some real trade desirables fall to us.

Agree and those first round QB's are the reason that those top 4 or 5 picks are very valuable, some teams are willing to give away the farm for a shot at one of those QB's. If Rodgers is going to get traded, I just don't see the Colts giving up the #4 pick for him, since that might be giving up one of the top 2 QB's or trading back themselves. The other "fun" think about this years draft, 4 out of the next 5 picks after the Colts (#5-#9), are by QB hungry teams, that also might be wanting to move up to snag one. If they can't and their QB is gone, Gute might get a phone call from say Atlanta, asking if they will trade Rodgers for the 8th pick.