2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[tynimiller]

There were NUMEROUS confirmed teams according to many folks that actually have contacts that said LVN was a Top 20 prospect. Numerous. The question for me was never whether LVN was worthy of a first, or even worthy of the pick we ended up picking him at - he was. The issue for me was there were other players also at arguably premium positions as well, that fit the GB type that I thought may sway Gute if there...many of those were not so I wasn't shocked to see LVN's name.

 

[Spanky]

As excited as everyone gets over 1st round draft picks, here's something to keep in mind. 19 of 32 players from the 2020 1st round did not have their 5th year option picked up. 59% That's 19 players who weren't good enough for their drafting team to want to guarantee them a contract for their 5th year. I'm not saying all 19 were busts, but they certainly could not be considered a big success.


Although Jordan Love did not technically have his option picked up he at least has a guaranteed contract for 2020 so I did not count him in the 19. Also, keep in mind Jeff Gladney died, Henry Ruggs is in jail, and Jeff Okudah was ineligible due to trade (although he was traded because he's a bust).

 

[tynimiller]

As excited as everyone gets over 1st round draft picks, here's something to keep in mind. 19 of 32 players from the 2020 1st round did not have their 5th year option picked up. 59% That's 19 players who weren't good enough for their drafting team to want to guarantee them a contract for their 5th year. I'm not saying all 19 were busts, but they certainly could not be considered a big success.


Although Jordan Love did not technically have his option picked up he at least has a guaranteed contract for 2020 so I did not count him in the 19. Also, keep in mind Jeff Gladney died, Henry Ruggs is in jail, and Jeff Okudah was ineligible due to trade (although he was traded because he's a bust).

Yup folks act like first rounders should be sure things…when I hear that it only means they don’t have a real grasp of historical trends

 

[Curly Calhoun]

As excited as everyone gets over 1st round draft picks, here's something to keep in mind. 19 of 32 players from the 2020 1st round did not have their 5th year option picked up. 59% That's 19 players who weren't good enough for their drafting team to want to guarantee them a contract for their 5th year. I'm not saying all 19 were busts, but they certainly could not be considered a big success.


Although Jordan Love did not technically have his option picked up he at least has a guaranteed contract for 2020 so I did not count him in the 19. Also, keep in mind Jeff Gladney died, Henry Ruggs is in jail, and Jeff Okudah was ineligible due to trade (although he was traded because he's a bust).

The six players drafted in the first round after Jordan Love are:

#27: Jordyn Brooks, ILB Seattle Seahawks. 5th-year option declined.

#28: Patrick Queen, ILB Baltimore Ravens. 5th-year option declined.

#29: Isaiah Wison, OT Tennesse Titans: Left football after his rookie season.

#30: Noah Igbinoghene, CB Miami Dolphins. 5th-year option declined.

#31: Jeff Gladney, CB Minnesota Vikings. Released after two seasons, subsequently passed away in automobile accident.

#32: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Kansas City Chiefs. 5th-year option declined.


In retrospect, Gutey looks like he may have been vindicated. Of course, it all comes down to how Love performs this season.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

As excited as everyone gets over 1st round draft picks, here's something to keep in mind. 19 of 32 players from the 2020 1st round did not have their 5th year option picked up. 59% That's 19 players who weren't good enough for their drafting team to want to guarantee them a contract for their 5th year. I'm not saying all 19 were busts, but they certainly could not be considered a big success.


Although Jordan Love did not technically have his option picked up he at least has a guaranteed contract for 2020 so I did not count him in the 19. Also, keep in mind Jeff Gladney died, Henry Ruggs is in jail, and Jeff Okudah was ineligible due to trade (although he was traded because he's a bust).

This is especially important when you have years like this when teams don't have 20 first round grades on players. I'm not saying the rumors are true, but those are the years you want to trade back and get the 2nd and 3rd round values. Just want to emphasize that this isn't a knock on LVN.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think the surprise is that they had him rated higher than Miles Murphy from Clemson. Van Ness was a pass rush specialist at Iowa. For a team that can't stop the run, Van Ness is going to be a project at run defense because he has little experience at the collegiate kevel. I think the pick shows more of a longer term rebuild mindset.

According to PFF Van Ness graded better as a run defender than rushing the passer.

So in 7 guys, he has taken two All Pro level types....you could stop there and deem him quite successful with the verdict still out on last four with two (Stokes/Walker) though appearing solid...you'd have to be purposefully hiding from the truth to blast Gute for his day 1 picks from a player perspective.

Mostly agree with your post, Stokes looked to regress after a promising rookie season before being lost with an injury though.

I'd imagine LVN gets many snaps in nickel as a 3T. Unsure how many total snaps he'll get, at least once Gary is healthy. Early in the season, I'd presume he and Engabare (sp?) will rotate opposite Preston.

I think there's a decent chance Gary will be ready to go in week 1.

 

[tynimiller]

According to PFF Van Ness graded better as a run defender than rushing the passer.


Mostly agree with your post, Stokes looked to regress after a promising rookie season before being lost with an injury though.



I think there's a decent chance Gary will be ready to go in week 1.

I said Stokes regressed and then the injury - neither he or Walker are worth praising yet at this time.

 

[mradtke66]

I think there's a decent chance Gary will be ready to go in week 1.

Quite possible.

 

[OldSchool101]

I said Stokes regressed and then the injury - neither he or Walker are worth praising yet at this time.

I think Walker will redeem himself for a few Rookie bonehead plays. But within 1/2 season last year he showed why he was selected at #22. That Justin Fields TD saving chase down was a turning point for me.
He does need to reel in his intensity between the Whistle, but he’s going to be really really good if that was Year 1.
Van Ness will be a great Substitute Edge year1 without losing too much off our starters. He’ll have the chance to reduce inside also to use his versatility. Probably we’ll get a few splash plays that we wouldn’t have seen otherwise by Enagbare etc.

 

[Sanguine camper]

The entire secondary didn't play very well at the beginning of last season. Perhaps its because Stokes regressed but I think it has more to do with coaching issues. My concern is that Stokes' progress will be hampered by poor coaching. He was thrown to the wolves as a rookie and played extremely well. Hard to imagine the same athlete not being able to regain that form unless he's forced to play techniques that don't play to his strengths. Its the job of the coaches to put players in positions to win matchups which he's shown the ability to do, especially man-to-man coverage. As long as Joe Barry is the DC and he continues to play too many soft zone coverages, don't expect much from the defense despite the really good talent.

 

[OldSchool101]

The entire secondary didn't play very well at the beginning of last season. Perhaps its because Stokes regressed but I think it has more to do with coaching issues. My concern is that Stokes' progress will be hampered by poor coaching. He was thrown to the wolves as a rookie and played extremely well. Hard to imagine the same athlete not being able to regain that form unless he's forced to play techniques that don't play to his strengths. Its the job of the coaches to put players in positions to win matchups which he's shown the ability to do, especially man-to-man coverage. As long as Joe Barry is the DC and he continues to play too many soft zone coverages, don't expect much from the defense despite the really good talent.

Somehow I’m inclined to think that while Joe Barry is still our DC, Matt put his foot down some last season. While Matt is an Offensive mind, he’s not ill equipped to recognize Deficiencies on Defense. I believe he has been more involved as late in that phase. That said. I fully agree we underperformed last season as a whole.

That was then.. this is now
Imo, This season is it for Joe Barry… unless he eclipses into that top 10 overall. Lukas Van Ness may be used Sparingly (like Rookie Rashan) but even that gives us a dynamic Edge room. Once we get Rashan back we have a very formidable Pass Rushing group.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Somehow I’m inclined to think that while Joe Barry is still our DC, Matt put his foot down some last season. While Matt is an Offensive mind, he’s not ill equipped to recognize Deficiencies on Defense. I believe he has been more involved as late in that phase. That said. I fully agree we underperformed last season as a whole.

I think Jerry Gray had a lot to do with the defense playing a different scheme late last season as well. Unfortunately he's the one who's not the Packers' coaching staff anymore.

 

[AmishMafia]

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Can't help but get excited when I saw this review of Van Ness on Locked on Packers. Interview with his trainer. Said Van Ness is amazing and could be the best defensive player in the NFL in a bit. Was amazed at his burst and skill level - said he would advise starting him right away.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

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Can't help but get excited when I saw this review of Van Ness on Locked on Packers. Interview with his trainer. Said Van Ness is amazing and could be the best defensive player in the NFL in a bit. Was amazed at his burst and skill level - said he would advise starting him right away.

Time will tell, but he does look a lot like a young Rashan Gary.

If that turns out to be the case, Green Bay will have a lot to cheer about.

 

[tynimiller]

Time will tell, but he does look a lot like a young Rashan Gary.

If that turns out to be the case, Green Bay will have a lot to cheer about.

See he reminds me of the absolute best of Aaron Kampman and a lot of the solid traits of Rashan Gary. He's going to be fun to watch develop I hope!

 

[Curly Calhoun]

See he reminds me of the absolute best of Aaron Kampman and a lot of the solid traits of Rashan Gary. He's going to be fun to watch develop I hope!

I felt bad for Kampman when the Pack switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment and tried to make him a linebacker - It really wasn't his style, and he was gone in a year.

he was, however, a very solid DE for Green Bay prior to that. He was fun to watch.

I'm hoping Van Ness brings some of that as well.

 

[tynimiller]

I felt bad for Kampman when the Pack switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment and tried to make him a linebacker - It really wasn't his style, and he was gone in a year.

he was, however, a very solid DE for Green Bay prior to that. He was fun to watch.

I'm hoping Van Ness brings some of that as well.

It's crazy to think Van Ness profiles and shows on tape high level DE ability, but then has all the measurables and ability and tape to stand....LVN truly has a special ceiling. If he can shoot for it and get even just 80% there he is a guy that will have a role in the NFL for a long time.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

It's crazy to think Van Ness profiles and shows on tape high level DE ability, but then has all the measurables and ability and tape to stand....LVN truly has a special ceiling. If he can shoot for it and get even just 80% there he is a guy that will have a role in the NFL for a long time.

I remember when Gary was drafted, and skeptics pointed to a lack of production in college. He sat for a year behind the Smith brothers as some whispered "bust", and then in year two showed he belonged and could be something special.

With Van Ness some have been quick to point out he was not a starter at Iowa...His athleticism however has not been questioned.

We may be forced to admit that Gutekunst & company seem to know what they're doing, at least in this area.

Also hoping for a second-year leap from Devonte Wyatt - That would be welcome.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Van Ness credits his hockey background with helping him develop into a good pash rusher. Typically, former wrestlers credit that sport with their superior balance, low center of gravity and leverage. Curious as how hockey would help having wrestled but never played the game. Any former hocker players give us insight ? Most likely balance and leg burst. The great ones seem to cover the ice quicker than their conpetitors.

 

[AmishMafia]

I remember when Gary was drafted, and skeptics pointed to a lack of production in college. He sat for a year behind the Smith brothers as some whispered "bust", and then in year two showed he belonged and could be something special.

With Van Ness some have been quick to point out he was not a starter at Iowa...His athleticism however has not been questioned.

We may be forced to admit that Gutekunst & company seem to know what they're doing, at least in this area.

Also hoping for a second-year leap from Devonte Wyatt - That would be welcome.

Big difference from LVN to Gary. Gary was far more of a projection due to his surprising lack of effectiveness. LVN has the physical tools, tenacity, and that led to production.

 

[OldSchool101]

With Van Ness some have been quick to point out he was not a starter at Iowa...His athleticism however has not been questioned.

Yes. That’s the thing. Those fans that want players with the higher production in College are generally never going to see that selection at 13. Those are top 10 players.

Van Ness credits his hockey background with helping him develop into a good pash rusher.

There’s some carry over from Hockey that is probably helpful.
He might look like a model, but he’s got some “mean” in him and that kinda goes with the Hockey background also.

 

[tynimiller]

I remember when Gary was drafted, and skeptics pointed to a lack of production in college. He sat for a year behind the Smith brothers as some whispered "bust", and then in year two showed he belonged and could be something special.

With Van Ness some have been quick to point out he was not a starter at Iowa...His athleticism however has not been questioned.

We may be forced to admit that Gutekunst & company seem to know what they're doing, at least in this area.

Also hoping for a second-year leap from Devonte Wyatt - That would be welcome.

Folks saying the starter thing instantly disqualify their opinion of holding little if any weight at all.

Iowa runs their system differently and upper class man get the starts regardless, even if only for a snap or two sometimes.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

5 games in, my grade on LVN is so far a D.

That said, I figured he was going to be a guy like Gary, needed developing and eventually will be a force, so I am still optimistic.

Thus far, he has been underwhelming. He has played 128 snaps on defense, roughly 36% of the total defensive plays. On the plays I have watched him, he gets moved around pretty easily by his blocker or he takes himself out of the play.

Definitely a project and this is probably the year to have a few.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

5 games in, my grade on LVN is so far a D.

That said, I figured he was going to be a guy like Gary, needed developing and eventually will be a force, so I am still optimistic.

Thus far, he has been underwhelming. He has played 128 snaps on defense, roughly 36% of the total defensive plays. On the plays I have watched him, he gets moved around pretty easily by his blocker or he takes himself out of the play.

Definitely a project and this is probably the year to have a few.

He's showing that he CAN do it though in the future.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Van Ness credits his hockey background with helping him develop into a good pash rusher. Typically, former wrestlers credit that sport with their superior balance, low center of gravity and leverage. Curious as how hockey would help having wrestled but never played the game. Any former hocker players give us insight ? Most likely balance and leg burst. The great ones seem to cover the ice quicker than their conpetitors.

And hip flexibility - the ability to bend at the waist without losing balance. Just a guess.