Packers vs Jets Pre Game Discussion

[Magooch]

Week Two is upon us!

As you all know the Packers are sitting at 0-1 following their 39-22 loss to the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-0 after defeating the Titans 23-10 last week.
The Titans were not a very good team last season, and many suspect they will be competing for the #1 pick again this year...but I think many Jets fans still found it to be an encouraging showing.

Geno Smith went 19/24 for 215 yards - no TD, no INT. 84.7 QBR and 104.0 passer rating.

Breece Hall had 22 carries for 102 yards and a TD; additionally Braelon Allen chipped in 10 for 40 yards.

On the other side of things, they only allowed a total of 195 yards of offense for the Titans, and zero plays of 15+ yards.
David Bailey looks REALLY dangerous, we might have our hands full with him. In 35 defensive snaps he had 4 tackles, a sack, and a QB hit. He also helped to set up a sack for former Packer Kingsley Enagbare.

Will McDonald will be one to keep an eye on as well; last week he logged a 40% pass rush win rate, which tied for the 3rd-best rate in the league in week 1 (#1 was - no surprise - Dallas Turner at 60%). The Jets also had DT David Onyemata come in at #14 in run stop success rate, and offensively OT Olu Fashanu was #7 in pass block protection/win rate.

Hard to draw many conclusions after one week, but the Jets currently sit at #10 in total offensive EPA/play, #7 in success rate, #6 in passing EPA, and #10 in rush EPA. Defensively, they also come in at #10, with a success rate of #18, pass defense EPA of #9, and rush defense EPA of #16.

(For comparison/context we finished #25 in offensive EPA/play, #26 in success rate, #22 in pass EPA, and #31 in rush EPA. Defensively we were #19 in total EPA allowed per play, #6 in success rate, #22 in defensive pass EPA, and #11 in defensive rush EPA)

Kickoff is at 12PM CST this Sunday from MetLife Stadium. Early lines have the Packers favored by around 4.5 points and the total set around 44.5.

I would have a really tough time predicting a Jets win, but I do think this one will perhaps be closer than many would be comfortable with. I'll call it like a 31-27 or something in that ballpark.

Who ya got?

 

[gopkrs]

You make the jets sound pretty damn good. It will be interesting to see how Morgan does against whoever he faces. Sounds like they have two good DEs. Looking for Cooper to have a big game.

 

[El Guapo]

If I were the Jets, I would just run stunts all day against the Packers. Our O-line was so inept in the end it is kind of crisis mode. Those of you that have been around long enough, know that I never claim that the sky is falling. Yet, the sky is falling.

That's not to say that they can't fix things. The basic fundamentals missing from the O-Line and massive...MASSIVE...communications errors that occurred can not be minimized. Players were not setting themselves, not having patience on hand-offs to linemates which left massive gaps, players clearly not knowing the plays (some in pass pro while others are pulling)... Yes these are signs of a young OL. Yes these are signs of teams not getting enough game reps in the pre-season.

However, the OLine has never looked as bad as it did on Sunday in all of the years that I've been following the team. Coaching is clearly a problem, because many of these things should have been addressed over the past month+. The jitters should clear up for the young guys. ZBB should get back to form. We should have a different LG. All of that said, there are no quick and easy fixes. Teams are going to feast just like Brian Flores did once he realized how bad the disfunction was on our OLine.

LaFleur needs to pull his head out of his play-sheet to call plays that minimize the mistakes. Run the ball until it hurts. Let the O-line impose their will, whatever that is. Call screens for that Lloyd guy, who has a lot of shifty moves. Call some jet-sweeps to keep the blitzes at bay. Don't send Love into deep drops when there are free-runners blasting through the line on every play.

How do I step down from this soapbox?

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[OldSchool101]

The only good thing about a tough loss is nowhere to go but up. Right off the bat our Vikings matchup was always going to be a closer strength opponent than The Jets. I completely underestimated 1. The environment house 2. The Level and quality of the Blitz packages. It was really the perfect storm by Flores.

RB, Breece Hall continues to get hyped like he’s the next coming of Adrian Peterson. His best season last year in a 4yr career was 1,415 All purpose at a respectable to good 4.5 per carry and ok ish 5 TD’s (total). He’s probably a top 10-12 area RB in this league, but barely.

We do NOT have Justin Jefferson to cover. I just believe that guy quietly covers ALOT of QB mistakes with superior athleticism and ball tracking ability. Might even be the best in the business.

We do NOT play in a Dome or Reverberating Lumen Field. This is closer to a more normal level atmosphere as far as raw noise and intensity. That in itself will help some.
One benefit is being less likely to have a dozen yellow flags for -100 yards. 50% last week were pre snap flags that became drive killers.

The Jets WR1 (and I’d label him that) is what I’d call an average to lower echelon WR1. Garrett has a pair of seasons right at 1,100 and another at 1,000 across 4 years. Really Jayden Reed is not far behind him. There is no definitive WR2 like Addison is for Minnesota.

Geno replaced Montgomery and
Tyrod is now a GB backup, not NY’s. Geno Smith is not a miracle worker. He’s a solid QB with a higher than average career completion % and near 2:1 TD:INT

 

[DABIGZ]

The only good thing about a tough loss is nowhere to go but up. Right off the bat our Vikings matchup was always going to be a closer strength opponent than The Jets. I completely underestimated 1. The environment house 2. The Level and quality of the Blitz packages. It was really the perfect storm by Flores.

RB, Breece Hall continues to get hyped like he’s the next coming of Adrian Peterson. His best season last year in a 4yr career was 1,415 All purpose at a respectable to good 4.5 per carry and ok ish 5 TD’s (total). He’s probably a top 10-12 area RB in this league, but barely.

We do NOT have Justin Jefferson to cover. I just believe that guy quietly covers ALOT of QB mistakes with superior athleticism and ball tracking ability. Might even be the best in the business.

We do NOT play in a Dome or Reverberating Lumen Field. This is closer to a more normal level atmosphere as far as raw noise and intensity. That in itself will help some.
One benefit is being less likely to have a dozen yellow flags for -100 yards. 50% last week were pre snap flags that became drive killers.

The Jets WR1 (and I’d label him that) is what I’d call an average to lower echelon WR1. Garrett has a pair of seasons right at 1,100 and another at 1,000 across 4 years. Really Jayden Reed is not far behind him. There is no definitive WR2 like Addison is for Minnesota.

And honestly our defense held Addison and Jets relatively in check:

Jefferson: 8 recs, 92 yards, two of those recs being TD's (Still hurts we gave up 2 TD's, but under 100 for receiving is alright, considering how great he is.)

Addison: 0 Recs, 0 yards.

I'd go as so far to say that if we let the Jets WR beat us after how well we did against the Vikings... we deserve to lose.

 

[gopkrs]

If I were the Jets, I would just run stunts all day against the Packers. Our O-line was so inept in the end it is kind of crisis mode. Those of you that have been around long enough, know that I never claim that the sky is falling. Yet, the sky is falling.

That's not to say that they can't fix things. The basic fundamentals missing from the O-Line and massive...MASSIVE...communications errors that occurred can not be minimized. Players were not setting themselves, not having patience on hand-offs to linemates which left massive gaps, players clearly not knowing the plays (some in pass pro while others are pulling)... Yes these are signs of a young OL. Yes these are signs of teams not getting enough game reps in the pre-season.

However, the OLine has never looked as bad as it did on Sunday in all of the years that I've been following the team. Coaching is clearly a problem, because many of these things should have been addressed over the past month+. The jitters should clear up for the young guys. ZBB should get back to form. We should have a different LG. All of that said, there are no quick and easy fixes. Teams are going to feast just like Brian Flores did once he realized how bad the disfunction was on our OLine.

LaFleur needs to pull his head out of his play-sheet to call plays that minimize the mistakes. Run the ball until it hurts. Let the O-line impose their will, whatever that is. Call screens for that Lloyd guy, who has a lot of shifty moves. Call some jet-sweeps to keep the blitzes at bay. Don't send Love into deep drops when there are free-runners blasting through the line on every play.

How do I step down from this soapbox?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Without holes it doesn't take long at all until it hurts.

 

[Zartan]

Let's hope they come out better Sunday.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

They came out just fine against the Vikes last week. It's how they end is where they need to get better.

 

[milani]

Week Two is upon us!

As you all know the Packers are sitting at 0-1 following their 39-22 loss to the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-0 after defeating the Titans 23-10 last week.
The Titans were not a very good team last season, and many suspect they will be competing for the #1 pick again this year...but I think many Jets fans still found it to be an encouraging showing.

Geno Smith went 19/24 for 215 yards - no TD, no INT. 84.7 QBR and 104.0 passer rating.

Breece Hall had 22 carries for 102 yards and a TD; additionally Braelon Allen chipped in 10 for 40 yards.

On the other side of things, they only allowed a total of 195 yards of offense for the Titans, and zero plays of 15+ yards.
David Bailey looks REALLY dangerous, we might have our hands full with him. In 35 defensive snaps he had 4 tackles, a sack, and a QB hit. He also helped to set up a sack for former Packer Kingsley Enagbare.

Will McDonald will be one to keep an eye on as well; last week he logged a 40% pass rush win rate, which tied for the 3rd-best rate in the league in week 1 (#1 was - no surprise - Dallas Turner at 60%). The Jets also had DT David Onyemata come in at #14 in run stop success rate, and offensively OT Olu Fashanu was #7 in pass block protection/win rate.

Hard to draw many conclusions after one week, but the Jets currently sit at #10 in total offensive EPA/play, #7 in success rate, #6 in passing EPA, and #10 in rush EPA. Defensively, they also come in at #10, with a success rate of #18, pass defense EPA of #9, and rush defense EPA of #16.

(For comparison/context we finished #25 in offensive EPA/play, #26 in success rate, #22 in pass EPA, and #31 in rush EPA. Defensively we were #19 in total EPA allowed per play, #6 in success rate, #22 in defensive pass EPA, and #11 in defensive rush EPA)

Kickoff is at 12PM CST this Sunday from MetLife Stadium. Early lines have the Packers favored by around 4.5 points and the total set around 44.5.

I would have a really tough time predicting a Jets win, but I do think this one will perhaps be closer than many would be comfortable with. I'll call it like a 31-27 or something in that ballpark.

Who ya got?

It should be hard to predict a Jets win. But it is not as hard as maybe a year ago. Jets land is fired up for this one. Last week breathed life into them. And they have been on life support for quite a while. After their victory and our defeat there is room for them to have optimism. They will be waving the white towels Sunday. At least for a while. The Packers are capable of going out there and playing up to the level of any opponent. But they are also capable of playing down to the level of the opponent, primarily because of their coaching situation. The Jets are not the team with the 6 game losing streak. We are.

 

[milani]

If I were the Jets, I would just run stunts all day against the Packers. Our O-line was so inept in the end it is kind of crisis mode. Those of you that have been around long enough, know that I never claim that the sky is falling. Yet, the sky is falling.

That's not to say that they can't fix things. The basic fundamentals missing from the O-Line and massive...MASSIVE...communications errors that occurred can not be minimized. Players were not setting themselves, not having patience on hand-offs to linemates which left massive gaps, players clearly not knowing the plays (some in pass pro while others are pulling)... Yes these are signs of a young OL. Yes these are signs of teams not getting enough game reps in the pre-season.

However, the OLine has never looked as bad as it did on Sunday in all of the years that I've been following the team. Coaching is clearly a problem, because many of these things should have been addressed over the past month+. The jitters should clear up for the young guys. ZBB should get back to form. We should have a different LG. All of that said, there are no quick and easy fixes. Teams are going to feast just like Brian Flores did once he realized how bad the disfunction was on our OLine.

LaFleur needs to pull his head out of his play-sheet to call plays that minimize the mistakes. Run the ball until it hurts. Let the O-line impose their will, whatever that is. Call screens for that Lloyd guy, who has a lot of shifty moves. Call some jet-sweeps to keep the blitzes at bay. Don't send Love into deep drops when there are free-runners blasting through the line on every play.

How do I step down from this soapbox?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

It is a copy cat league. If you are the Jets and you run just 4 you might have success but how can you ignore what happened to us last week. In 2022 the Jets D shut us down with just 4, both the run and the pass. I guess we just play them like the Vikings this week. But this time take the points. Take any points.

 

[milani]

They came out just fine against the Vikes last week. It's how they end is where they need to get better.

Right!

 

[Magooch]

I’m not a betting man but I do maintain at least some interest in following the lines… this one at one point was as heavy as Packers -5.5 but now I believe it is narrowing to -3.5 so far

 

[Pugger]

It is a copy cat league. If you are the Jets and you run just 4 you might have success but how can you ignore what happened to us last week. In 2022 the Jets D shut us down with just 4, both the run and the pass. I guess we just play them like the Vikings this week. But this time take the points. Take any points.

On your last point - MLF was asked about not taking the points last week and he said he'd be aggressive in a similar situation in the future. So I'm not holding my breath.

I believe our defense is a lot better than the Titans. Hopefully we can keep the Jets from running wild. In the end it will all come down to our OL. Until this group improves - if they can with these players - all future opponents will try to emulate what Flores did and this will be long season for us all.

 

[JoePack]

I keep being reminded of the Seahawks-GB game many moons ago, losing but should've won. Similarities this yr and the last several yrs.

 

[gopkrs]

I haven't noticed a lot of Zaire Franklin yet. Maybe he'll make a splash Sunday.

 

[AmishMafia]

I asked ChatGPT - this is what it came up with:

First quarter:
The Jets come out aggressively. Breece Hall gets plenty of work early, and Geno Smith uses Garrett Wilson underneath to keep drives alive. I’d expect Green Bay to settle in rather than panic after last week’s collapse. Jets 7–3.

Second quarter:
Jordan Love starts finding Christian Watson downfield. Watson had an enormous Week 1—six catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns—and Green Bay’s passing game generated 419 total yards despite the loss.

The Jets answer with a long drive, but Green Bay gets a late touchdown to take the lead. Packers 17–13 at halftime.

Third quarter:
This is where I think the Jets' pass rush makes things uncomfortable. Green Bay's offensive line struggled against Minnesota, with Love getting sacked four times, and the Packers are dealing with several injuries up front.

Hall breaks a big run and New York retakes the lead. Jets 20–17.

Fourth quarter:
This is the swing period. Green Bay has the more productive passing attack on the early-season evidence, while the Jets have shown they can control games with Hall and a mistake-free Geno Smith.

I think Love gets one crucial drive late: a couple of big throws to Watson and/or Matthew Golden, followed by a touchdown. The Jets get the ball back with a chance to win, but Green Bay's defense forces a punt or turnover on downs.

Final: Packers 27, Jets 23.

The biggest storylines

Jordan Love vs. the Jets pass rush: Probably the matchup that determines the game. Love threw for 387 yards in Week 1, but Green Bay's protection was a major problem.
Breece Hall vs. Green Bay's front: Hall ran for 102 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries against Tennessee. If he gets rolling, New York can control the clock.
Christian Watson: After his 147-yard, two-TD opener, he is the explosive player I'd watch most closely.
Turnovers and penalties: Green Bay had 12 penalties for 98 yards and two turnovers in Week 1. Cleaning that up could be the difference between another collapse and a win.

Injuries: Green Bay has several notable players dealing with injuries, while the Jets have questions surrounding players including Minkah Fitzpatrick and Omar Cooper Jr.

Bottom line: I expect a much closer game than the records suggest. The Jets have home-field advantage and looked sharp in Week 1, but I think Love's arm and Green Bay's passing attack eventually produce enough big plays to escape with a 27–23 Packers win.

 

[Magooch]

I'd be curious to see how the weather will impact this one...

On a nice clear day I would feel a lot more comfortable. Right now I'd wager we're a better passing team than a running one, and the Jets secondary was already a bit of a vulnerability for them and they'll be without Minkah Fitzpatrick.

BUT...as of today, the forecast for Sunday is basically heavy rain all day long. 97% probability of precipitation. Currently it's showing rain at 10 and 11AM, then picking up again at 2PM and continuing for the rest of the day. So that's cutting it close...

IF it does end up being a rainy one and a game that lends itself more towards the ground game, I don't know how well that suits us then... rush vs rush I think that scenario would favor the Jets somewhat.

 

[milani]

On your last point - MLF was asked about not taking the points last week and he said he'd be aggressive in a similar situation in the future. So I'm not holding my breath.

I believe our defense is a lot better than the Titans. Hopefully we can keep the Jets from running wild. In the end it will all come down to our OL. Until this group improves - if they can with these players - all future opponents will try to emulate what Flores did and this will be long season for us all.

Our defense can keep us in games if they can escape some of those yellow flags.

 

[milani]

I'd be curious to see how the weather will impact this one...

On a nice clear day I would feel a lot more comfortable. Right now I'd wager we're a better passing team than a running one, and the Jets secondary was already a bit of a vulnerability for them and they'll be without Minkah Fitzpatrick.

BUT...as of today, the forecast for Sunday is basically heavy rain all day long. 97% probability of precipitation. Currently it's showing rain at 10 and 11AM, then picking up again at 2PM and continuing for the rest of the day. So that's cutting it close...

IF it does end up being a rainy one and a game that lends itself more towards the ground game, I don't know how well that suits us then... rush vs rush I think that scenario would favor the Jets somewhat.

That is what the Jets' fans our hoping for. Kind of worked that way in the snow. A running game is so essential.

 

[milani]

I keep being reminded of the Seahawks-GB game many moons ago, losing but should've won. Similarities this yr and the last several yrs.

It's hereditary.

 

[OldSchool101]

It's hereditary.

Let’s hope not!

 

[OldSchool101]

And honestly our defense held Addison and Jets relatively in check:

Jefferson: 8 recs, 92 yards, two of those recs being TD's (Still hurts we gave up 2 TD's, but under 100 for receiving is alright, considering how great he is.)

Addison: 0 Recs, 0 yards.

I'd go as so far to say that if we let the Jets WR beat us after how well we did against the Vikings... we deserve to lose.

Exactly and 50% of Jefferson’s production came on 1 free play. Again not making excuses but we’ve got to clean up the flags. Take that flag away and he’s likely 7 rec 53 yards 1 TD as their leading target.
Like you said. Not bad against premier receiver. It’s not like Derrick Henry’s performance

 

[milani]

Exactly and 50% of Jefferson’s production came on 1 free play. Again not making excuses but we’ve got to clean up the flags. Take that flag away and he’s likely 7 rec 53 yards 1 TD as their leading target.
Like you said. Not bad against premier receiver. It’s not like Derrick Henry’s performance

Sometimes a team can get too aggressive especially on defense. Offsides, late hits, merciless hits, false starts and on the road. The first series that forced Murray back to throw a desperate INT gave the Packers a euphoric sense of we can do it all. What they needed was a common sense reaction of get ready for 60 minutes of football and many plays, not just one.

 

[rmontro]

Just noting: Here in Indiana, they're running the Bears game instead, so I won't be watching it. Might follow on Gamecast.

 

[Poppa San]

Just noting: Here in Indiana, they're running the Bears game instead, so I won't be watching it. Might follow on Gamecast.

Tom Grossi play by play on the tube.