I wouldn't apply the BPA theory with a QB in this case, but I doubt the Packers have any of the QB's that would still be left on the board at #14 rated that high. Although, I don't think we need to spend a high pick on a RB, if Saquon Barkley happened to fall (which he won't), I wouldn't be too mad about getting him.
I'm still pretty convinced that the "BPA formula" doesn't have you selecting a guy, just because he is rated one or two spots better than the next guy on your board, if he isn't a player at a position of need. Now if there is a clear and wide gap between where you have him rated and the next guy, then maybe BPA applies. Which was obviously the case when Rodgers was selected in 2005.
BPA is rarely a QB. They almost always get over-drafted because they are so important.
I finally figured out why some posters here don't believe the Packers use BPA. I was in a discussion with someone the other day when it dawned on me. They thought the Packers big board is a ranking of 200+ players sequentially. That #5 is a better player than #6. No NFL teams do this, only websites. It's impossible, inefficient, and erroneous.
What they do is score each player individually. Area scouts start the score and then it gets adjusted by coaches, medical, Sr. Bowl, interviews, research, and the combine.
Check this out:
Www.powerhousegm.com/blog/nfl-draft-prospect-grading-systems
At no time does the staff all sit down and say okay, Edmunds is #10, now who should be #11? Can you imagine? It would take a week to get the top 30 done. And then, how do you compare with current team and future drafts? How could you evaluate trades if you don't understand the relative value of what you are giving or getting?
Not sure why I'm under this impression, but I believe the Packers use an 8.0 scale, closer to the first one discussed in the link. At least they did under wolf. This one is a little more detailed than I believe the Packers had.
Anyway, when the Packer's pick at 14 they may have 2 or 3 guys rated as a 7.1 to choose from. If they pass up the last 7.2 available, they are drafting for need. If 7.1 is the highest score available and they pick any guy at 7.1 they are taking BPA. With the Packers picking at the end on the first, they usually had a bunch of players to choose from. Drafting higher, they will have fewer options.