Week 9: Packers in New England

[RepStar15]

I know most people on this thread will lead with “Patriots do not make stupid decisions like the Packers. Patriots easily win this football game.” Now, I would never bet against Tom Brady at home, but this is actually a favorable matchup for us. The Patriots have zero pass rush, which will give our offense the ability to really do whatever they want and come away with points. The way our defense played tonight, gives some legitimate hope here. If they make as many stops as they did tonight, the Packers win this football game. The Patriots defense lacks any sort of creativity, pass rush, or even speed on the outside. I would be surprised to see JK Scott on the field more than once.

Ways they will beat us? James White lining up on the outside and Gronk will be the difference makers. If we can shut that option down, we’re in for another wild ride. Hopefully a similar game, different outcome.

 

[Packer96]

They will beat us because their coach will find a way to exploit our weaknesses and our coach will be talking about pad level.

 

[melvin dangerr]

Hopefully trading deadline will see mix up and new Kick returner

 

[Mondio]

probably activate Davis. My support for this staff is going to take a serious hit if I see Montgomery back there returning kicks again on Sunday.

 

[HardRightEdge]

probably activate Davis. My support for this staff is going to take a serious hit if I see Montgomery back there returning kicks again on Sunday.

Cue the "bring back Jeff Janis" posts.

 

[PackAttack12]

I find it hard to even get excited about this game right now. I'm still so numb about what happened yesterday. And I've been looking forward to this particular matchup for a long time.

Packers/Patriots. Rodgers/Brady. Yet I'm just numb to it right now.

Couldn't think of a worse feeling for a team going into Foxboro then what they must be feeling right now.

 

[Mondio]

I find it hard to even get excited about this game right now. I'm still so numb about what happened yesterday. And I've been looking forward to this particular matchup for a long time.

Packers/Patriots. Rodgers/Brady. Yet I'm just numb to it right now.

Couldn't think of a worse feeling for a team going into Foxboro then what they must be feeling right now.

Snap out of it. Probably the best thing that could happen for us. No time to wallow, no time for what if. This team needs to get right back to film and practicing. Keep the focus, keep getting better. I’d be more afraid if we had to play a team like the 49ers this week. Going to NE though will force this team to get right back to work.

 

[PackAttack12]

Good thing about this game is New England playing on a short week.

 

[PackerDNA]

I had figured even before the season that we would beat the Patriots. We match up with them well, and I expect Rodgers to have a big game. I think that back-to-back Road games against top teams maybe a bigger obstacle then the Patriots themselves.

 

[Arod2gjdd]

As a Packers fan living in New England, I was so pumped for this game when the schedule came out. But it's hard to feel anything but numb after yesterday. The way that game ended makes me feel so bad for the entire squad, especially guys like Jaire Alexander and Blake Martinez who took this game over and made it their own. To put forth that kind of effort and come up short, in that fashion, must put just a disgusting taste in those guys' mouths.

That being said, we showed that we can win this one, especially with how our D played. In fact, MM HAS to have this one. It's time for him to put up or shut up and actually WIN a big game instead of having excuses as to why we lost. Offense, once again, went cold for long stretches. That run up the gut out of the was inexplicable and transformed the complexion of the game. To gain even a little bit of credibility back MM needs to get Ty off this team immediately. Grow a pair and hold a guy accountable, please. It's not only the tantrum and the decision to return and the fumble, but HE HAS NO ROLE OR PLACE ON THIS TEAM ANYMORE. This offense is absolutely loaded with talent, between the receivers, Jones, and Williams. WE DON'T NEED HIM. And keeping him around after yesterday is just toxic to all the guys who busted their ***** yesterday. Grow a pair MM and drop your stupid, misplaced loyalty to Ty and actually play to WIN for once. At what point is this **** inexcusable and almost winning just not ****ing good enough? Cut Ty NOW, re-enstate Davis if he is ready, and try to actually play a complete, smart game Sunday night. I think they can win if they do this, but I can't help but feel like the psyche of this team might be shot after putting up such an incredible effort and having that abomination transpire at the end.

 

[Mondio]

I think we matched up better with the Rams than the Pats. RB's and TE's, we still haven't proven we can cover them out of the backfield. The Rams had a great back, but really not much in the way of TE. Their big plays are to their WR's set up off play action. with everyone healthy and Alexander back, I figured we'd be able to cover that well.

I was surprised how well we kept Gurley contained for much of the game anyway. I think offensively, we can score a lot more points against the Pats. Our offense matches up well against them. But i'm not as confident in our defense against them.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

They will beat us because their coach will find a way to exploit our weaknesses and our coach will be talking about pad level.

The Patriots modus operandi is to identify a team's number one weakness and exploit it.

So much too choose from.....

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

I would hope that Ty is gone by next game, if so, that'll by default give more carries to Jones. Even if it is just a few. I don't trust us outscoring Brady and Gronk. I think we can win if we run the ball and take as much time off the clock as possible. The fewer possessions for the Pats, the better. But this game I thought all season long would be the easier of the 2 (rams), but now I think this one has blowout potential for us. Not because the Pats are better than us or we aren't good enough (cause we absolutely are good enough), but because to lose like that last night after playing that hard and solid does something to your motivation and state of mind. Ty was selfish and not only cost his team last nights game, but maybe this one coming up as well. Hopefully someone delivers an Al Pacino Any Given Sunday level speech.

 

[TB5XSBW]

I don't see why some here think GB's offense matches up well vs NE's defense. Football is all about scheme, personnel, and match ups, not about offensive or defensive rankings.

The Packers don't really do the things on offense that have posed issues for NE's defense. The Packers' RBs are not a threat in the passing game, and their TEs have been mediocre at best. Most of GB's chunk gains have come from their vertical passing game from switch concept, which doesn't really work as well against what NE does on defense - a lot of cover 1 with a safety dropping into robber.

Adams will be a problem, and will probably be double teamed with JMac and a safety. Other than that, I don't see many offensive threats. Graham is soft and has been shut down by Belichick before. Jonathan Jones has been very good as a slot CB, while Cobb hasn't really produced this season. Allison will likely be taken out of the game completely by Gilmore.

On the other side of the ball, GB hasn't shown that they can get to the QB with just 4 consistently. That's the death knell for a zone team against Brady. Their LBs also can't cover RBs or TEs.

 

[RepStar15]

I’m excited for this matchup. I am a packers fan living in New England as well. I will be at the game and have seen the Patriots live against Kansas City and Houston this year. I know it’s hard to believe, but this team is just as flawed as the Packers. Most notably is exactly how bad the defense is, by watching the games (not looking at the stats). They have the ability to stuff the run up the middle, but cannot play the deep ball, effectively cover a crossing route or stop the run to the outside.

The Patriots offense may be slightly better than the Packers offense. But the Packers defense is significantly better than the Patriots defense. Obviously Patriots have the better HC.

Just for fun, take a look at their schedule. Pay attention to the teams with good defenses they played against.
Texans- W (worst game of Desean Watson’s season)
Jaguars- L (Blake Bortles looked like Steve Young against the pats defense)
Lions- L
Dolphins- W
Colts- W
Chiefs- W (want to talk about bad play calling by MM, how about Andy reid three times in a row motioning Tyreek Hill into the backfield on 3rd and goal and going 0-3?)
Bears- W (Khalil Mack was a non factor and actually should not have played. He was clearly hurt)

Coming from someone that has literally watched every snap of the Patriots season, this is a much more winnable game than you may think.

 

[TB5XSBW]

They have the ability to stuff the run up the middle, but cannot play the deep ball,

Defending the deep ball has not been the problem at all, barring a few plays. The coverage issues have come by way of the LBs not being able to cover RBs or TEs, but GB has no receiving threats out of the backfield, and their TEs have been mediocre.

 

[C-Lee]

He makes out with his own son!

 

[Title Town USA]

He makes out with his own son!

Just imagine what he does to Gronk.

 

[RepStar15]

Defending the deep ball has not been the problem at all, barring a few plays. The coverage issues have come by way of the LBs not being able to cover RBs or TEs, but GB has no receiving threats out of the backfield, and their TEs have been mediocre.

While I agree with you in they struggle against covering a RB and we are not a threat there, Patriots defense has made mediocre TE’s look like studs:
Trey Burton: 9 receptions, 123 yards, and 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 9 receptions, 105 yards, and 2 TD

Then to wideouts:
Keelan Cole: 7 receptions, 114 yards and 1 TD (season best)
Dede Westbroke: 4 receptions, 83 yards and 1 TD (2nd best of the season)
Tyreek Hill: 7 receptions, 140 yards and 3 TDS (season best)

I think Jimmy Graham is better than both Burton and Ebron, and I think all of our WR’s are better than Cole and Westbrook. With the exception of the Chiefs, the Patriots will be facing the best offense they have seen all season. Again, I’m not saying we win no doubt, I’m just saying it’s going to be closer than you may think with a legitimate chance to win.

 

[TB5XSBW]

While I agree with you in they struggle against covering a RB and we are not a threat there, Patriots defense has made mediocre TE’s look like studs:
Trey Burton: 9 receptions, 123 yards, and 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 9 receptions, 105 yards, and 2 TD

Then to wideouts:
Keelan Cole: 7 receptions, 114 yards and 1 TD (season best)
Dede Westbroke: 4 receptions, 83 yards and 1 TD (2nd best of the season)
Tyreek Hill: 7 receptions, 140 yards and 3 TDS (season best)

I think Jimmy Graham is better than both Burton and Ebron, and I think all of our WR’s are better than Cole and Westbrook. With the exception of the Chiefs, the Patriots will be facing the best offense they have seen all season. Again, I’m not saying we win no doubt, I’m just saying it’s going to be closer than you may think with a legitimate chance to win.

Graham isn't better than Burton. Burton has had a better year with Trubisky throwing him the ball. Plus, Chicago uses him in far more creative ways. Ebron's big game came because they did not focus on stopping him. Instead they used their best TE defender (Patrick Chung) against the Colts' dangerous passing threat out of the backfield (Hines.)

Take a look at the way NE defended against Travis Kelce, who is a far better TE than Graham at this point. He was a non-factor. Belichick has experience planning against Graham, who was shut down by his defense when he was in his prime (held to 0 receptions.)

Two of those WRs you listed are from the week 2 game where NE was missing several of their top defenders. NE's defense always plays poorly in the first month of the season, but the Jaguars have a different offense anyways - one that has been a problem for us schematically for a while. That was just a bad match up.

 

[RepStar15]

Graham isn't better than Burton. Burton has had a better year with Trubisky throwing him the ball. Plus, Chicago uses him in far more creative ways. Ebron's big game came because they did not focus on stopping him. Instead they used their best TE defender (Patrick Chung) against the Colts' dangerous passing threat out of the backfield (Hines.)

Take a look at the way NE defended against Travis Kelce, who is a far better TE than Graham at this point. He was a non-factor. Belichick has experience planning against Graham, who was shut down by his defense when he was in his prime (held to 0 receptions.)

Two of those WRs you listed are from the week 2 game where NE was missing several of their top defenders. NE's defense always plays poorly in the first month of the season, but the Jaguars have a different offense anyways - one that has been a problem for us schematically for a while. That was just a bad match up.

I would be shocked if Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham and one of the others (MVS, St. Brown, Cobb Or Allison) don’t all have over 100 yards.

 

[TB5XSBW]

I would be shocked if Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham and one of the others (MVS, St. Brown, Cobb Or Allison) don’t all have over 100 yards.

Adams will likely have 100+ yards. I wouldn't expect Graham, Allison, or Cobb to have big games, though.

 

[RepStar15]

Adams will likely have 100+ yards. I wouldn't expect Graham, Allison, or Cobb to have big games, though.

Based on what exactly? This is the easiest defense the Packers have faced all season.

 

[Poppa San]

All that and Rodgers has never lost to Brady in a game he started. 2006 Favre started and went out injured. 2010 Matt Flynn played.

 

[TB5XSBW]

Based on what exactly? This is the easiest defense the Packers have faced all season.

Based on who they will be drawing in coverage. Adams will get JMac + a safety, but will likely still put up good numbers. After that, Gilmore will take Allison out of the game completely. Graham will draw Chung for the most part, and will only be doubled with a LB + a safety on 3rd downs and in the RZ. Cobb, who hasn't been even remotely impressive this season, will draw Jonathan Jones, who has been exceptional inside the slot.

A lot of the things GB does on offense with their switch concepts don't really work against a good cover 1 team like NE. I expect them to move the ball between the 20s, but they will likely be held to 24 or under.