1 in 8?????? What? Where did you get that from?
From
www.sportingcharts.com:
Packers 2-pt conversation
2015... 4 of 6 for 66.7% success
2009-15... 9 of 22 for a lot higher percentage than 1 in 8 chance that you quoted.
NFL (all teams)
2015... 45 of 94 for nearly 50% success rate.
Put the ball in your MVP QB hands 2 yards from beating the #2 team in their house! I mean, come on! You just rocked them with a successful hail mary-- they cannot believe their eyes and they are on their heels. If you don't have confidence in that, what the hell?