2020 Packers 2nd round pick: AJ Dillon, RB

[Mondio]

Part of having a fresh start, I suppose.

For everyone else, new job, new city, new house, etc brings a fresh set of excitement, but if it concerns Rodgers it must be spun in a negative because that’s just what must be true…

 

[tynimiller]

For everyone else, new job, new city, new house, etc brings a fresh set of excitement, but if it concerns Rodgers it must be spun in a negative because that’s just what must be true…

I feel there is truth to both sides of this coin yet again. Just my .02 worth more or less depending on whether someone agrees.

 

[Poppa San]

I'm thinking if he signs up again it is at a discount. I don't see the numbers that make him a must have RB by any team. If he stays it'll be for personal / family reasons and foregoing some $$ from elsewhere. I'd like to see him take the Deguera role and become this team's John Kuhn persona.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm thinking if he signs up again it is at a discount. I don't see the numbers that make him a must have RB by any team. If he stays it'll be for personal / family reasons and foregoing some $$ from elsewhere. I'd like to see him take the Deguera role and become this team's John Kuhn persona.

Of all the UFAs, he and Runyan I think are two that truthfully would take less to stay.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Of all the UFAs, he and Runyan I think are two that truthfully would take less to stay.

That and I don't think there are going to be a lot of high priced suitors for either. While it would have been nice to have had Dillon for the playoff run, him being injured might have effected his free agency value.

 

[tynimiller]

That and I don't think there are going to be a lot of high priced suitors for either. While it would have been nice to have had Dillon for the playoff run, him being injured might have effected his free agency value.

High priced no...but I suspect unless Gute/MLF do see Dillon as a Deguara type replacement with RB duties as a bonus, other teams are going to offer him more than we do. I just get that sense...and it isn't without merit. I've broken it down before....teams will say to Dillon and his agent his explosion isn't there and he will be able to look back at them and point to production though don't lie. Dillon has produced at a clip that arguably looking at contracts to RBs since 2022 that justify giving him $3M minimum a year...

Jamaal Williams got 3 yrs/$12M or 4/yr at the age of 28 and having posted 3,652 yards (3.9yd/a for career) and 30 TDs plus 178 Receptions and just shy of 1200 yards receiving in 6 seasons or 90 games

Dillon has put up in just four years 2,428 yards (4.1/att) and 16TDs plus 86 receptions and 763 yards receiving.

Some others you got are:

Nyheim Hines got $9M for two years or $4.5M/yr and he has put up essentially half the rush yards as dillon but has produced in the passing game quite a lot evening their yards.
Cordarrelle Patters at the age of 31 got a 2yr/$10.5M deal even
David Montgomery (superior comp IMO) got 3yrs/$18M or $6M/year

I have zero clue where his contract might end up and with whom

 

[Sanguine camper]

Dillon just looked a little slow footed this year compared to his previous seasons. I know that isn't a metric but sometimes the eyeball test matters. I like Dillon in the passing game, he blocks well and isn't a bad receiver. Is the rest of his game good enough to keep him? The Packers do need someone to spell Aaron Jones. Keeping Dillon may be a luxury if a better runner is available that can also block.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’d offer Dillon a contract but I’m not getting into a bidding war either. Somewhere in that 3X$8mil area and potential contract out in 2025. Call it $3.5mil guar. I might toss him a few smaller postseason bonus levels eg, $50K for each postseason 1st down and $100K per TD etc.

That gives us flexibility to bring in a ONE RB from the 2024 draft and ramp them gradually. Jon Brooks would then be squarely on my radar because he’s likely out 2/3 of the 2023 season. However several other RB answers in that top 125 are doable. There’s a few bigger ones if Dillon chases $ elsewhere.

I like having that reliable 3rd guy for an injury and we get to keep our pseudo FB short yardage guy.

One aspect I like about Dillon is he stays consistent to almost better in postseason play. Having a cold weather, bruising RB that is fully “system oriented” could prove very wise for playoffs next season, especially if it’s in the colder, windier, slippery weather at Lambeau. We don’t need to start all over at RB during a postseason run, that’s a position that’s cheap to keep solidarity for Jordan. Keep doing what works and build upon that.

 

[OldSchool101]

That said. I don’t know how they feel about Emmanuel Wilson? He reminds me of a poor man’s Ahman Greene just the way he runs. I don’t know where his ceiling is though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That said. I don’t know how they feel about Emmanuel Wilson? He reminds me of a poor man’s Ahman Greene just the way he runs. I don’t know where his ceiling is though.

Patrick Taylor is another guy that might figure into the equation. He seemed like a better back this season and quietly rushed 32 times and had a 4.4 yd/rush average. Not sure who is the better blocking back between Wilson and Taylor.

 

[OldSchool101]

Patrick Taylor is another guy that might figure into the equation. He seemed like a better back this season and quietly rushed 32 times and had a 4.4 yd/rush average. Not sure who is the better blocking back between Wilson and Taylor.

They let Taylor temporarily walk, but I think Wilson showed better long term upside after watching him in camp /preseason(plus a few earlier season mishaps by Taylor) Although the second Wilson went down we valued Taylor because of his familiarity with our system. I’m guessing the margin between the
2 RB’s is thin.
I don’t have strong feelings on anyone since Dexter. You know how I feel about Dexter

 

[OldSchool101]

After watching Matt’s interview from today. I’m more leaning that Dillon comes back. Will the $$ part work out idk. Although I think AJ wants to come back and the Packers want him back on board and those are 2 of 3 primary hurdles. $$ being another

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m going to make an assumption that #33 is back because of his dead $$$ and his positive affect on our team.
Resigning Dillon would be a Win now move. He’s a good short yardage RB and he’s good in postseason. His catch ability is underestimated and underused. He’s really possesses qualities of a shorter TE/Hback. Well rounded imo and a + in that Locker room and community.

As long as we can keep his contract from being prohibitive of selecting a RB in the 2024 draft I’m good. Actually keeping him allows is to push the need at RB down a round.

 

[tynimiller]

I’m going to make an assumption that #33 is back because of his dead $$$ and his positive affect on our team.
Resigning Dillon would be a Win now move. He’s a good short yardage RB and he’s good in postseason. His catch ability is underestimated and underused. He’s really possesses qualities of a shorter TE/Hback. Well rounded imo and a + in that Locker room and community.

As long as we can keep his contract from being prohibitive of selecting a RB in the 2024 draft I’m good. Actually keeping him allows is to push the need at RB down a round.

I LOVE DILLON....I don't think it is in the team's best interest to sign him and pretend he should be our RB2. Now low cost one year deal I'm eh on and would understand...but unless he's willing to cut the Packers a serious deal, I sense his legs are finally dying with all those carries he's had in his life and his running abilities are slouching.

 

[OldSchool101]

I LOVE DILLON....I don't think it is in the team's best interest to sign him and pretend he should be our RB2. Now low cost one year deal I'm eh on and would understand...but unless he's willing to cut the Packers a serious deal, I sense his legs are finally dying with all those carries he's had in his life and his running abilities are slouching.

Maybe.
My personal belief is our Run blocking was terrible towards beginning of season. It was more average down the last 10 games after getting moderate continuity going.
This is Expected from possibly the youngest O in modern SB era. Get me 2 upgrades on OL and you’ll see a tick upwards.
Dillon was a respectable 3.8 yards per carry in the last 11 games after a slow start. Understand he was also the feature back in many games without Jones active.
The blocking recession can be seen in Jones’ “average per”carry dropping .7 per carry from last year and .4 per carry from his previous career average. The entire RB room suffered. Is Jones washed up? Obviously not he just embarrassed several top playoff seeds.

Dillon needs to be utilized as a short yardage back, not a feature back like he was a portion of 2023. That’s what our 2024 3rd Round selection is for.
Dillon needs to have a tick up in receiving attempts. He just had 22/28 223 yards. That’s 10-1st Downs + 10+ per. AJ needs 150% increased workload in an area that’s not been exploited. Get him in space (see 2021)

Dillon needs to be paid like a RB2/3 sharing workload with our 2024 draft pick. 3X$10mil/$4guaranteed. He’s 25yrs old and somewhat banged up, but overall bern very reliable. He’s not done. Trust me here.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am going to make an assumption and part of it comes after hearing Runyan's emotional interview. I would guess that this team is as tightly bonded as a Packer team has been in a long time. That tends to happen when underachievers suddenly get a lot better. Also, given the way that they finished the season and played in the playoffs, the future is bright in GB. All of this is good news for trying to not just retain current guys, but to maybe attract some valuable free agents.

The Green Bay Packers were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in 2023, this may be the team a lot of players would love to be on. Of course some will go to where the most money is, where they have the best shot at being a starter, or maybe in a city where they want to reside. That said, Green Bay is not only the home of the 2025 draft, it might be a place where winners want to go.

 

[OldSchool101]

I am going to make an assumption and part of it comes after hearing Runyan's emotional interview. I would guess that this team is as tightly bonded as a Packer team has been in a long time. That tends to happen when underachievers suddenly get a lot better. Also, given the way that they finished the season and played in the playoffs, the future is bright in GB. All of this is good news for trying to not just retain current guys, but to maybe attract some valuable free agents.

The Green Bay Packers were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in 2023, this may be the team a lot of players would love to be on. Of course some will go to where the most money is, where they have the best shot at being a starter, or maybe in a city where they want to reside. That said, Green Bay is not only the home of the 2025 draft, it might be a place where winners want to go.

There no question this is true!
We were 100% just 1-2 plays from the NFC game and now everyone knows it, including prospects (coaches and players) from the outside. There is still a group of players (and coaches) in the league that value a Ring over a small variance in $$. Not to mention if your a $1mil short on a yearly and you win a SB? Your market value skyrockets.

Also we should continue to do what’s been working. Plus fix a few areas that weren’t. Get most of your key players back and 1-2 outside FA + a solid draft and even with a harder schedule I expect 10+ Wins

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There no question this is true!
We were 100% just 1-2 plays from the NFC game and now everyone knows it, including prospects (coaches and players) from the outside. There is still a group of players (and coaches) in the league that value a Ring over a small variance in $$. Not to mention if your a $1mil short on a yearly and you win a SB? Your market value skyrockets.

Also we should continue to do what’s been working. Plus fix a few areas that weren’t. Get most of your key players back and 1-2 outside FA + a solid draft and even with a harder schedule I expect 10+ Wins

I will add to both of our posts, even though we both implied this. The Packers may be best off filling their safety needs with an experienced NFL starter or even 2. I view this as maybe "my biggest FA need" for the Packers. The situation for such a Free Agent couldn't be more perfect right now than in GB. New DC, a very young and up n coming team, to play for and start on and to have a decent shot at a ring.

 

[Poppa San]

Maybe.
My personal belief is our Run blocking was terrible towards beginning of season. It was more average down the last 10 games after getting moderate continuity going.
This is Expected from possibly the youngest O in modern SB era. Get me 2 upgrades on OL and you’ll see a tick upwards.
Dillon was a respectable 3.8 yards per carry in the last 11 games after a slow start. Understand he was also the feature back in many games without Jones active.
The blocking recession can be seen in Jones’ “average per”carry dropping .7 per carry from last year and .4 per carry from his previous career average. The entire RB room suffered. Is Jones washed up? Obviously not he just embarrassed several top playoff seeds.

Dillon needs to be utilized as a short yardage back, not a feature back like he was a portion of 2023. That’s what our 2024 3rd Round selection is for.
Dillon needs to have a tick up in receiving attempts. He just had 22/28 223 yards. That’s 10-1st Downs + 10+ per. AJ needs 150% increased workload in an area that’s not been exploited. Get him in space (see 2021)

Dillon needs to be paid like a RB2/3 sharing workload with our 2024 draft pick. 3X$10mil/$4guaranteed. He’s 25yrs old and somewhat banged up, but overall bern very reliable. He’s not done. Trust me here.

No amount of probowl blockers is going to give Dillon the ability to cut when that is where the hole is. I'm done with seeing him run up the back of a stonewalled pulling guard when there is gaping hole if he'd see it. That is where AJ33 excels. Dillon don't.

 

[tynimiller]

No amount of probowl blockers is going to give Dillon the ability to cut when that is where the hole is. I'm done with seeing him run up the back of a stonewalled pulling guard when there is gaping hole if he'd see it. That is where AJ33 excels. Dillon don't.

Dillon's close quarters adjusting is gone. Just is sadly - sucks because he is literally one of my favorite Packers we have.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

No amount of probowl blockers is going to give Dillon the ability to cut when that is where the hole is. I'm done with seeing him run up the back of a stonewalled pulling guard when there is gaping hole if he'd see it. That is where AJ33 excels. Dillon don't.

You pretty much nailed one of the biggest difference between the 2 players. Dillon is fine for blocking, quick screens and keeping the pile moving, but too often he turns an Aaron Jones 5 yard gain into zero yards.

 

[Poppa San]

Sadly I think Wilson runs the same way just quicker. He doesn't have the vision needed for the breakaway cuts.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sadly I think Wilson runs the same way just quicker. He doesn't have the vision needed for the breakaway cuts.

I think it is a gift that not a ton of runners possess. We have all watched Jones make something out of absolutely nothing or as you point out, quickly switch directions and find that gaping hole. Jones is a well rounded back, the only thing he lacks is breakaway speed, but he more than makes up for it in other areas.

 

[tynimiller]

Sadly I think Wilson runs the same way just quicker. He doesn't have the vision needed for the breakaway cuts.

Which if this is true is precisely why you don't bring Dillon back if you remove the heart of the decision and just think fiscally or arguably best for team. Team morale or lockerroom presences is the only reason truthfully to bring Dillon back unless in a FB/RB3 type role and that is understood.

 

[adambr2]

Maybe.
My personal belief is our Run blocking was terrible towards beginning of season. It was more average down the last 10 games after getting moderate continuity going.
This is Expected from possibly the youngest O in modern SB era. Get me 2 upgrades on OL and you’ll see a tick upwards.
Dillon was a respectable 3.8 yards per carry in the last 11 games after a slow start. Understand he was also the feature back in many games without Jones active.
The blocking recession can be seen in Jones’ “average per”carry dropping .7 per carry from last year and .4 per carry from his previous career average. The entire RB room suffered. Is Jones washed up? Obviously not he just embarrassed several top playoff seeds.

Dillon needs to be utilized as a short yardage back, not a feature back like he was a portion of 2023. That’s what our 2024 3rd Round selection is for.
Dillon needs to have a tick up in receiving attempts. He just had 22/28 223 yards. That’s 10-1st Downs + 10+ per. AJ needs 150% increased workload in an area that’s not been exploited. Get him in space (see 2021)

Dillon needs to be paid like a RB2/3 sharing workload with our 2024 draft pick. 3X$10mil/$4guaranteed. He’s 25yrs old and somewhat banged up, but overall bern very reliable. He’s not done. Trust me here.

Jones YPC dropping is probably a lot more to do with the fact that he's 29 and played injured a lot this year than anything to do with run blocking. Is he washed up? No he is not, but of course that top end speed isn't there anymore like it was 5 years ago.

That being said, he's still leaps and bounds better than Dillon. Dillon is a plodder who is made out to be better than he really is as a short yardage back.

I don't have a huge issue if he's brought back for a year or two, but it would be much more for cultural reasons than anything that has to do with onfield production. Meaning it would have to be cheap and he's not even a good backup plan if your starter goes down. Jones is far more important to the functionality of this offense.