2015 Packers notes

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I hope Sam Barrington is ready to take the next step as well. Otherwise we would have to rely heavily on Carl Palmer.

Or Adrian Hubbard ? ......lol

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Rodgers has a lot of work to do to become a decent ninja:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...-how-hes-spending-summer?campaign=Twitter_atn

 

[HardRightEdge]

As of 2013, Wisconsin ranked only 6th. in per capita beer consumption. While highly ranked in binge drinking, 2nd. to the North Dakota oil field workers, Packer fans need to step up and reclaim their heritage.

http://247wallst.com/special-report/2015/06/30/states-where-people-drink-the-most-beer/3/

The data indicates a switch to wine and spirits. If it's not schnapps, pffft.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Jason Wilde has Ty Montgomery at No. 20 in his most important Packers series:

http://www.espnwisconsin.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=40&post_id=53491

 

[TJV]

Part of Rodgers comment from that story: "Looks to be athletic, quick, has caught the ball well." Of course he'll get a long look at KOR, but with the way he's learned the playbook I think the key for him to get snaps from scrimmage will be how well he catches the ball. So far so good apparently but of course it's early, early, early. If he adapts to what the D is going after the snap as well as he did on the dry-erase board, I don't think he'll just get used from the backfield or on screens. But of course his competition at WRs will limit his snaps.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Part of Rodgers comment from that story: "Looks to be athletic, quick, has caught the ball well." Of course he'll get a long look at KOR, but with the way he's learned the playbook I think the key for him to get snaps from scrimmage will be how well he catches the ball. So far so good apparently but of course it's early, early, early. If he adapts to what the D is going after the snap as well as he did on the dry-erase board, I don't think he'll just get used from the backfield or on screens. But of course his competition at WRs will limit his snaps.

My main concerns with Montgomery are his drop rate and his inability to haul in long passes. If he truly catches the ball well on short routes his ability to create yards after the catch should get him on the field quite a lot. I don´t see him improving enough on deep routes to be considered an outside receiver this season though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Jason Wilde has Ty Montgomery at No. 20 in his most important Packers series:

http://www.espnwisconsin.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=40&post_id=53491

#20 seems aggressive for a rookie who's opportunities will likely be limited to KO returns, and #4 receiver if he beats out the other guys for that spot. As noted previously at some length, it's hard to see why anybody would be thinking of replacing Hyde as the punt returner. The Packers have openings at both gunner positions. Montgomery is a physical guy who runs 4.5. He might qualify.

Montgomery's value would be tested if (or more likely when) one of the top 3 WRs misses a game or two providing he's secured the #4 spot.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

#20 seems aggressive for a rookie who's opportunities will likely be limited to KO returns, and #4 receiver if he beats out the other guys for that spot. As noted previously at some length, it's hard to see why anybody would be thinking of replacing Hyde as the punt returner. The Packers have openings at both gunner positions. Montgomery is a physical guy who runs 4.5. He might qualify.

Montgomery's value would be tested if (or more likely when) one of the top 3 WRs misses a game or two providing he's secured the #4 spot.

With the renewed emphasis on special teams it kind of makes sense to put Montgomery at No. 20 as he's the most likely candidate to have a huge impact on the unit.

As I've said repeatedly as well I like the Packers to continue using Hyde on punt returns.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins take No. 19 in Wilde's ranking of most important Packers going into this season:

http://www.espnwisconsin.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=40&post_id=53511

 

[HardRightEdge]

With the renewed emphasis on special teams it kind of makes sense to put Montgomery at No. 20 as he's the most likely candidate to have a huge impact on the unit.

As I've said repeatedly as well I like the Packers to continue using Hyde on punt returns.

It's hard for me to see how a single player other than the kickers, particularly the place kicker, can have a "huge" impact on special teams. With a KO returner, there simply are not enough opportunities.

Let's say a team receives 6 KOs in a game where 27 points are surrendered. Half of them are touchbacks. That leaves a very generous 3 opportunities per game when giving up an above average number of scores. Perhaps as many as 10 opportunities per yer year are lost to on-side, pooch and out-of-bounds kicks, maybe more. In 2015, the KO returners brought back a total of 26 kicks (Harris - 22, Hyde - 4), or about 1.6 opportunities per game.

Harris and Hyde averaged 21.2 yds. on those 26 kicks. Let's say Montgomery matches his best season at Stanford as a junior, with 30.3 yds. per return, exceeding all reasonable expectations.

At 3 returns per game (which would assume the Packers are at the bottom of the league in scoring defense), that amounts to an additional 27 yards in field position per game. At 1.6 opportunities per game, that's about 14 yards per game.

While those yards are nothing to sneeze at as every little bit helps, those numbers are not a "huge" impact.

That leaves the question of TD returns. The entire league returned 6 KOs for TDs last season. If Montgomery managed 2 as he did in his junior year at Stanford, which surely should not be expected, that might qualify as top 20 "important", but they'd need to be impactful to the particular games in which they occur and not garbage time padding.

I threw out the idea of Montgomery as gunner, but that's just an idea. The Packers do not have a history of using WRs at the position, though it is done in the NFL. On the remote chance he secures that job, he'd need to be quite good at it, along with a highly productive KO season, to get to "important" status on the strength of special teams play.

As Wilde correctly notes as the first item in his list of special teams deficiencies, the 7 blocked kicks are intolerable. I don't see where Montgomery is going to help with that. He would also not be in a position to prevent the kinds of special team issues evident in the Seattle game.

What Wilde doesn't say at all, which is mystifying, is his value as the #4 WR, providing he secures that role. What are the odds that the top 3 WRs will go injury free, 48 for 48 in starts? Very slim.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's hard for me to see how a single player other than the kickers, particularly the place kicker, can have a "huge" impact on special teams. With a KO returner, there simply are not enough opportunities.

Let's say a team receives 6 KOs in a game where 27 points are surrendered. Half of them are touchbacks. That leaves a very generous 3 opportunities per game when giving up an above average number of scores. Perhaps as many as 10 opportunities per yer year are lost to on-side, pooch and out-of-bounds kicks, maybe more. In 2015, the KO returners brought back a total of 26 kicks (Harris - 22, Hyde - 4), or about 1.6 opportunities per game.

Harris and Hyde averaged 21.2 yds. on those 26 kicks. Let's say Montgomery matches his best season at Stanford as a junior, with 30.3 yds. per return, exceeding all reasonable expectations.

At 3 returns per game (which would assume the Packers are at the bottom of the league in scoring defense), that amounts to an additional 27 yards in field position per game. At 1.6 opportunities per game, that's about 14 yards per game.

While those yards are nothing to sneeze at as every little bit helps, those numbers are not a "huge" impact.

That leaves the question of TD returns. The entire league returned 6 KOs for TDs last season. If Montgomery managed 2, which surely should not be expected, as he did in his junior year at Stanfor, that might qualify as top 20 "important", but they'd need to be impactful to the particular games in which they occur and not garbage time padding.

I threw out the idea of Montgomery as gunner, but that's just an idea. The Packers do not have a history of using WRs at the position, though it is done in the NFL. On the remote chance he secures that job, he'd need to quite good at it, along with a highly productive KO season to get to "important".

You're actually right, I wasn't aware of the fact that there were only six kickoffs returned for a TD in the entire league last season. I expected that number to be significantly higher. It makes it nearly impossible for a kickoff returner to have a huge impact.

A single player on special teams other than a kicker could still be a deciding factor in an important game like Tyler Thigpen or Brandon Bostick proved to us last season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You're actually right...

You seem surprised. As opposed to all of the other posts?

I wasn't aware of the fact that there were only six kickoffs returned for a TD in the entire league last season. I expected that number to be significantly higher. It makes it nearly impossible for a kickoff returner to have a huge impact.

A single player on special teams other than a kicker could still be a deciding factor in an important game like Tyler Thigpen or Brandon Bostick proved to us last season.

It's pretty clear the Packers special teams play was a collective failure, with a season-long rotating cast of characters blowing assignments. That's what got the coach fired.

The idea that the guy who replaces a guy like Bostick (or Hawk or Jones) on special teams who simply performs his assignments should not get a special note. It seems to me a special designation of "important" should be reserved for players who are given lots of snaps, and many more opportunities to either make plays or screw up.

In the final analysis, taking the special teams as a whole, a 30 yard per KO return number from Montgomery, on the high end of unreasonable expectations, is merely a field position offset for Crosby's sub-50% touchbacks.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins take No. 19 in Wilde's ranking of most important Packers going into this season:

http://www.espnwisconsin.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=40&post_id=53511

I'm really straining to understand Wilde's criteria for "important".

Right now, with Hayward at the top of the cover corner depth chart and Hyde at nickel, these guys are #4 and #5 currently.

The rookies only become important if Hayward becomes a burn victim, as Bush was when he was briefly installed at cover corner at the start of the season a few years back. That makes Hayward very important...he needs to play well enough to keep these rookies with no college cover corner bona fides off the field.

I think we can all agree that Shields, Burnett, Clinton-Dix and Hayward are more important than these rookies. That puts 6 DBs in the top 20 "important" (or top 21 as it stands now). And that doesn't even count Hyde who's not going to make this list unless Wilde wants to include 7 DBs, which would be awfully silly.

Either of these rookies is going to have a tough time bouncing Hyde out of the nickel spot. It is important that Hyde continue to play well enough to keep these guys off the field. And if Wilde is going to include Montgomery in the list on the strength of speculative KO performance, how is he going to exclude Hyde on what amounts to proven elite punt return performance?

Eventually Wilde will get around to obvious names. So far, this is bunk.

As an aside, the more I read quotes from Whitt, the more I believe he'll make a good DC some day, and maybe sooner rather than later.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In the final analysis, taking the special teams as a whole, a 30 yard per return number from Montgomery, on the high end of unreasonable expectations, is merely a field position offset for Crosby's sub-50% touchbacks.

Oddly enough the Packers offense had the 12th starting field position after a kickoff last season. I agree that it's unrealistic to expect Montgomery to average 30 yards per return.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm really straining to understand Wilde's criteria for "important".

Right now, with Hayward at the top of the cover corner depth chart and Hyde at nickel, these guys are #4 and #5 currently.

The rookies only become important if Hayward becomes a burn victim, as Bush was when he was briefly installed at cover corner at the start of the season a few years back. That makes Hayward very important...he needs to play well enough to keep these rookies with no college cover corner bona fides off the field.

I think we can all agree that Shields, Burnett, Clinton-Dix and Hayward are more important than these rookies. That puts 6 DBs in the top 20 "important" (or top 21 as it stands now). And that doesn't even count Hyde who's not going to make this list unless Wilde wants to include 7 DBs on the list, which would be awfully silly.

Either of these rookies is going to have a tough time bouncing Hyde out of the nickel spot. It is important that Hyde continue to play well enough to keep these guys off the field. And if Wilde is going to include Montgomery in the list on the strength of speculative KO performance, how is he going to exclude Hyde on what amounts to proven elite punt return performance?

As an aside, the more I read quotes from Whitt, the more I believe he'll make a good DC some day, and maybe sooner rather than later.

Hayward is the front runner to win the starting spot opposite Shields but as Whitt has mentioned he doesn't care who ends up playing, so at least Randall will compete with Hayward.

One of the two rookies will most likely end up being the dime corner, ending up playing at least some meaningful snaps every game. In addition it's improbable all three CBs ahead of them on the depth chart will stay healthy the entire season resulting in even more playing time for either Randall or Rollins.

I agree that the more I read about Whitt the more I love his approach to coaching the cornerbacks.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Oddly enough the Packers offense had the 12th starting field position after a kickoff last season. I agree that it's unrealistic to expect Montgomery to average 30 yards per return.

That is odd.

Ordinarily, I would suspect that opponents don't kick as many touchbacks at Lambeau given the weather. If the KO returner takes the ball at the 5 and returns the kick 21 yards (as was the Packer average), the 26 yard line beats the 20 on a touchback.

The problem with this theory is that the Packers simply did not return many KOs last year, indicating a high percentage of touchbacks.

There's probably a couple of factors at work that each incrementally add to the equation. Here are a couple of thoughts:

While the Packers averaged 21 yds. per return, the long return was 40 yards. One 100 yard return in lieu of a touchback would have bumped the average up by nearly 4 yards to a quite respectable 25 yard average. I'm wondering how the stats treat TD returns? Are they dropped out of the data because there is no actual offensive starting point? In that case the teams that did have a KO TD return are penalized in this ranking by having that return unaccounted for.

Here's another thought. Perhaps the Packers just happened to be the beneficiaries of more major penalties on KO returns than they surrendered. It the stats are based on actual starting point, and not the point before the penalty assessment, then a favorable +/- on the penalties would bump up the ranking.

Here's a third thought. Since the Packers frequently play with a lead late in games, perhaps they were the beneficiaries of an above average number of on-side kicks that were recovered.

Here's a fourth thought. There are quite a few KO returners who are more aggressive than Harris was. A guy can be in the habit of returning kicks 5+ yard deep, something Harris was disinclined to do. A guy can rack up a pretty decent average running back deep kicks without getting the ball out to the 20.

I don't know which of these factors might apply, or to what extent. There may be others. But I think it goes to illustrate that starting position and return average don't need to be correlated.

Or maybe you query needs tweaking.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Hayward is the front runner to win the starting spot opposite Shields but as Whitt has mentioned he doesn't care who ends up playing, so at least Randall will compete with Hayward.

On the other hand, when Whitt was asked if he's concerned about Hayward at cover corner, he said that's at the bottom of his list of concerns. The implication was his priority is getting the #3, #4, #5 cover corners up to speed, the leading candidates having collectively zero NFL snaps.

I believe it is very important for the 2015 season that Hayward stays at the bottom of his list of concerns. It should be preferable these young guys get their feet wet in dime or other spot duty. The fact neither of the high draftees has much experience on the island, while profiling as a safety and a nickel corner, would make for considerable growing pains in on-the-job training. Capers plays a lot of man defense; throwing one of these rookies out there could make a big difference particularly in the early games where home field in the playoffs can be won or lost.

If Whitt goes gaga over one of these guys' grease board acumen the way Van Pelt did with Montgomery, I might have a bit more confidence in where he'll be in a scant 2 months. But there's no substitute for money game experience, and some spoon feeding on that score would be preferable.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That is odd.

Ordinarily, I would suspect that opponents don't kick as many touchbacks at Lambeau given the weather. If the KO returner takes the ball at the 5 and returns the kick 21 yards (as was the Packer average), the 26 yard line beats the 20 on a touchback.

The problem with this theory is that the Packers simply did not return many KOs last year, indicating a high percentage of touchbacks.

The Packers returned 47.56% of the kickoffs last season, ranking 19th in the league.

There's probably a couple of factors at work that each incrementally add to the equation. Here are a couple of thoughts:

While the Packers averaged 21 yds. per return, the long return was 40 yards. One 100 yard return in lieu of a touchback would have bumped the average up by nearly 4 yards to a quite respectable 25 yard average. I'm wondering how the stats treat TD returns? Are they dropped out of the data because there is no actual offensive starting point? In that case the teams that did have a KO TD return are penalized in this ranking by having that return unaccounted for.

I guess kickoff return TDs aren't included in the data. Three of the five teams which scored one are ranked behind the Packers.

Here's another thought. Perhaps the Packers just happened to be the beneficiaries of more major penalties on KO returns than they surrendered. It the stats are based on actual starting point, and not the point before the penalty assessment, then a favorable +/- on the penalties would bump up the ranking.

As far as I can tell there was only a single penalty during any of the Packers' kickoff returns and that one was an offensive holding penalty against Brandon Bostick.

Here's a third thought. Since the Packers frequently play with a lead late in games, perhaps they were the beneficiaries of an above average number of on-side kicks that were recovered.

The Packers recovered three onside kicks during the 2014 season, tied for second most in the league.

Here's a fourth thought. There are quite a few KO returners who are more aggressive than Harris was. A guy can be in the habit of returning kicks 5+ yard deep, something Harris was disinclined to do. A guy can rack up a pretty decent average running back deep kicks without getting the ball out to the 20.

It would take way too long to figure that one out but it's possible it factors in quite a bit.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I believe it is very important for the 2015 season that Hayward stays at the bottom of his list of concerns. It should be preferable these young guys get their feet wet in dime or other spot duty. The fact neither of the high draftees has much experience on the island, while profiling as a safety and a nickel corner, would make for considerable growing pains in on-the-job training.

While Rollins is inexperienced because he only played a single season of college football he lined up on the outside for 86% of the snaps last year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

While Rollins is inexperienced because he only played a single season of college football he lined up on the outside for 86% of the snaps last year.

...playing in the MAC conference. One MAC WR was drafted in 2015, Da'ron Brown in the 7th. round. Another was at the Packers rookie mini-camp (Chris Humphrey), but the Packers did not sign him. I don't know if he landed anywhere else. A third (Titus Davis) signed with San Diego as a UDFA. That's it.

Rollins has a big hill to climb to get meaningful rookie snaps. I liked his tape, though. He's the kind of guy you'd be looking for to take an end-of-season or second year jump.

 

[PikeBadger]

On the other hand, when Whitt was asked if he's concerned about Hayward at cover corner, he said that's at the bottom of his list of concerns. The implication was his priority is getting the #3, #4, #5 cover corners up to speed, the leading candidates having collectively zero NFL snaps.

I believe it is very important for the 2015 season that Hayward stays at the bottom of his list of concerns. It should be preferable these young guys get their feet wet in dime or other spot duty. The fact neither of the high draftees has much experience on the island, while profiling as a safety and a nickel corner, would make for considerable growing pains in on-the-job training. Capers plays a lot of man defense; throwing one of these rookies out there could make a big difference particularly in the early games where home field in the playoffs can be won or lost.

If Whitt goes gaga over one of these guys' grease board acumen the way Van Pelt did with Montgomery, I might have a bit more confidence in where he'll be in a scant 2 months. But there's no substitute for money game experience, and some spoon feeding on that score would be preferable.

I wouldn't stress about it too much. We're not the only team in the league that has rookie CB's on the roster.

 

[PikeBadger]

The Packers returned 47.56% of the kickoffs last season, ranking 19th in the league.



I guess kickoff return TDs aren't included in the data. Three of the five teams which scored one are ranked behind the Packers.



As far as I can tell there was only a single penalty during any of the Packers' kickoff returns and that one was an offensive holding penalty against Brandon Bostick.



The Packers recovered three onside kicks during the 2014 season, tied for second most in the league.



It would take way too long to figure that one out but it's possible it factors in quite a bit.

Few penalties, some very good punt returns and three recovered onside kicks. How can this be? I've been hearing that our ST sucked horribly.

Just curious. How many onside kicks were unsuccessful?

 

[JBlood]

Few penalties, some very good punt returns and three recovered onside kicks. How can this be? I've been hearing that our ST sucked horribly.

The Seattle debacle sticks in most of our minds as to last year's special teams' performance, and this play indicates it may have been coaching as much as individual mistakes:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...rgeted-packers-brad-jones-on-fake-field-goal/

 

[TJV]

Few penalties, some very good punt returns and three recovered onside kicks. How can this be? I've been hearing that our ST sucked horribly.

I don't know the onsides kick stats but here is Rick Gosselin’s “famous” STs ranking for 2014.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/da...tsday-s-annual-nfl-special-teams-rankings.ece
Not that his annual rankings are the last word, but I don’t think he has an ax to grind against the Packers. To the degree you accept his rankings, the only good news is the Packers can't finish worse.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Few penalties, some very good punt returns and three recovered onside kicks. How can this be? I've been hearing that our ST sucked horribly.

Just curious. How many onside kicks were unsuccessful?

Focusing only on the regular season, 7 blocked kicks by themselves indicates a serious systemic problem.